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Gujarat heading towards a photo finish, BJP-Congress tie on vote share: ABP-CSDS poll

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ABP-CSDS opinion poll shows BJP marginally ahead in race for forming government in Gujarat but Congress is fast bridging the gap in Prime Minister’s home state

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP national president Amit Shah may be crying hoarse claiming that their party was once again on way to victory – winning 150 seats – in their home state of Gujarat, but if the latest Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News opinion poll on the Gujarat Assembly polls is anything to go by, then the Congress is fast gaining political ground in the western state.

The opinion poll shows that the BJP and Congress could both end up with a 43 per cent vote share in the elections – due in two phases scheduled for December 9 and 14 – and that the saffron party could manage to retain power just by the skin of its teeth – winning between 91 and 99 seats in the 182-member state assembly. The Congress, according to the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News opinion poll, is likely to finish a very close second, winning between 78 and 86 seats with the remaining going to independents and others.

If the opinion poll is anywhere close to the ground reality, then they mean a huge boost for the Congress whose campaign in Gujarat is being led by the party’s ‘president-elect’ Rahul Gandhi. The opinion poll suggests that the Congress, riding high on an anti-incumbency wave coupled with the support of Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakore, is looking at its best ever performance in Gujarat since 1995, when the BJP romped to power in the state and has remained undefeated ever since.

Nearly all aspects of the poll show that the BJP has every cause to be worried in Gujarat – something that seems closer to reality considering that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah’s campaign rallies in their home state have now been marked not by massive crowds but by a huge number of empty chairs.

This is the third in a series of opinion polls that the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News combine has conducted in Gujarat since early August this year and the latest findings reveal a steady upswing in voter sentiment towards the Congress party. While the first opinion poll done by the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News had predicted a vote-share of 29 per cent for the Congress against 59 per cent for the BJP, the second poll showed the Congress moving towards a 41 per cent vote share while the BJP’s share plummeting to 47 per cent. With the BJP and Congress both pegged at a 43 per cent vote share according to the latest survey, the Grand Old Party has managed to – at least as per the opinion poll – increase its support among the voters by an impressive 14 per cent in just the past four months while the BJP seems to have lost support of 16 per cent of the electorate. It is pertinent to note that in the first-past-the-post system of elections that India follows; even a one percentage point swing can often change the course of a party’s electoral fortunes from definite defeat to an assured victory.

What is a greater cause of worry for the BJP perhaps is its rapidly eroding popularity in not just the state’s rural areas – which usually favoured the Congress even when the party faced humiliating defeats – but also in the urban areas which have long been considered the BJP’s main votebank, irrespective of caste-equations.

The opinion poll released on Monday showed that while the Congress was expanding on its already strong bastion of north Gujarat, it was also making significant leads in the southern part of the state, while the BJP, although ahead in central Gujarat and the Saurashtra region was also fast losing voter support in these traditional strongholds.

In central Gujarat, Congress is predicted to get 38 per cent votes against the BJP’s 54 per cent while in north Gujarat, the Congress is expected to fetch 49 per cent of votes while the BJP could be limited at 44 per cent.

Significantly, the survey shows that the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dipped by 18 points from 82 per cent in August to 64 per cent in November among the voters of his home state. During the same period, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has risen from 40 per cent in August to 57 per cent.

The dip in the BJP’s lead can be partly attributed to anger among traders – a community that constitutes a huge chunk of Gujarat’s electorate. The survey claims that though in October the BJP had a lead of four points among traders; the poll conducted last month showed the trend reversing, with the Congress now getting 43 per cent of the community’s votes as opposed to the BJP’s 40 per cent. This is apparently an indication that the trader community is buying into Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi’s poll pitch of demonetisation and the GST rollout having spelt doom for their business.

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BJP’s Ritu Tawde set to become Mumbai mayor, Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Ghadi named deputy

BJP’s Ritu Tawde is set to take charge as Mumbai mayor, marking the first break in Shiv Sena’s 25-year dominance of the post. Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Ghadi will serve as deputy mayor.

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BJP corporator Ritu Tawde is set to take over as the next Mumbai mayor, marking a significant political shift in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). This will be the first time in 25 years that the mayor’s post will not be held by the Shiv Sena.

Tawde, who represents Ghatkopar, has previously served as chairperson of the BMC’s education committee. Her name was announced by BJP leader Amit Satam on Saturday.

Shiv Sena to hold deputy mayor’s post

Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Shankar Ghadi will be the Deputy Mayor of Mumbai. Elected from Ward No. 5 in the January 15 civic elections, Ghadi will serve a 15-month term. The Shiv Sena has decided to rotate the deputy mayor’s post among four of its corporators.

Ghadi was among the leaders who joined Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s faction in 2022, a move that led to the collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government.

The Shiv Sena announced Ghadi’s candidature through party leader Rahul Shewale.

BJP-led alliance crosses majority mark

In the 227-member civic body, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats, while the Shiv Sena secured 29 seats. Together, the ruling alliance has 118 corporators, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 114 and ensuring control over the mayoral post.

The Shiv Sena (UBT), which governed the BMC continuously since 1997, won 65 seats. Its allies, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar faction), secured six and one seats, respectively.

The Congress won 24 seats, AIMIM eight, the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) three, and the Samajwadi Party two seats.

Civic polls held after nine-year gap

The high-stakes BMC elections were conducted after a nine-year gap. The civic body had been under a state-appointed administrator since March 7, 2022, following the end of the previous term.

The BMC remains the country’s richest civic body, with its budget for the 2025–26 financial year pegged at Rs 74,450 crore.

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Trump lifts additional 25% tariff on India after deal on Russian oil imports

The United States has lifted an extra 25% tariff on Indian goods after India committed to stopping Russian oil imports as part of a new trade agreement.

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US President Donald Trump has moved to remove an additional 25 percent tariff imposed on Indian goods following a trade agreement between the two countries, according to an executive order signed on Friday.

The extra duty, which had been levied over India’s purchases of Russian oil, will be lifted at 12:01 am Eastern Time on Saturday. The order states that India has committed to stopping the direct or indirect import of oil from the Russian Federation.

The decision comes days after Trump announced a broader trade deal with India, saying Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured Washington that New Delhi would halt Russian oil purchases amid the ongoing Ukraine war.

As part of the agreement, India has also committed to buying energy products from the United States. The executive order further noted that New Delhi has recently agreed to a framework aimed at expanding defence cooperation between the two countries over the next decade.

Tariff reduction still to be rolled out

While the additional 25 percent tariff is being removed immediately, the wider reduction in so-called reciprocal tariffs is yet to be implemented. Under the agreement, US duties on Indian products are expected to be reduced to 18 percent from the earlier level of 25 percent.

Other provisions of the deal include the removal of tariffs on certain aircraft and aircraft parts. A separate joint statement released by the White House said India intends to purchase goods worth $500 billion from the United States over the next five years. These purchases are expected to include energy products, aircraft and parts, precious metals, technology products and coking coal.

The move marks a sharp decline in US tariff levels on Indian goods, which had stood at as high as 50 percent late last year. The agreement also helps ease months of strain between the two countries over India’s oil imports, which Washington has argued help finance the conflict in Ukraine.

The deal signals a reset in ties between Trump and Prime Minister Modi, whom the US President has previously described as one of his closest friends.

Trade experts have noted that the proposed 18 percent tariff rate could offer Indian exporters a slight advantage in the US market compared to regional competitors facing duties of around 19 to 20 percent.

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Centre reassures farmers as India-US trade deal nears completion

The Centre has assured farmers that the upcoming India-US trade deal will not harm agriculture or dairy, while creating new export opportunities for India.

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As India and the United States move closer to finalising a major bilateral trade agreement, the Centre has sought to reassure farmers that their interests remain fully protected. Senior ministers on Wednesday said the proposed pact does not compromise sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy, while opening new avenues for Indian exports.

Union Minister for Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare Shivraj Singh Chouhan dismissed opposition allegations that the deal could adversely affect domestic farmers. Speaking to the media in New Delhi, he said the agreement poses no risk to staple food grains, millets, fruits or dairy products.

“Farmers’ interests are paramount and non-negotiable,” Chouhan said, asserting that the government has ensured no provision allows sudden or disruptive entry of foreign agricultural products into Indian markets. He added that safeguards for both small and large farmers remain firmly in place.

Chouhan underlined that key agricultural commodities continue to be protected and that existing measures shielding Indian farmers from unfair competition will remain unchanged. According to him, the agreement has been shaped under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with a clear focus on development and national interest.

Addressing concerns sparked by a recent social media post from a US official regarding greater access for American farm products, the Agriculture Minister said the matter had already been clarified in Parliament by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. He reiterated that India has not opened its markets in a way that would put pressure on domestic producers.

At the same time, the government highlighted potential gains for Indian exports. Reduced tariffs under the agreement are expected to benefit sectors such as rice, spices and textiles. Chouhan pointed out that India already exports rice to multiple countries, including the US, with shipments valued at around Rs 63,000 crore. Increased textile exports, he added, would directly support cotton-growing farmers and allied industries.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar also indicated that the trade agreement is now in its final stages. In a post on X following his visit to the United States, he described the negotiations as productive and said the deal would mark a new phase in bilateral relations. He noted progress in areas such as critical minerals, while signalling deeper engagement in defence, energy and strategic cooperation.

Officials view the agreement as part of a broader effort to strengthen India-US economic and strategic ties amid global uncertainty. While detailed provisions are yet to be made public, the Centre has reiterated that farmer welfare remains at the heart of the negotiations.

In an emotional appeal, Chouhan referred to farmers as the nation’s “Annadata” and said serving them was equivalent to worship. He assured that the government would continue to stand firmly with farmers as India charts a new course in its trade relationship with the United States.

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