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Trump’s pull out of Iran N-deal may escalate oil prices

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Trump’s pull out of Iran N-deal may escalate oil prices

India will also be affected by oil price rise

The possibilities of US President Donald Trump’s pull out from Iran nuclear deal on May 12 has been influencing the crude oil market. The Brent Crude, the global benchmark, briefly soared above $75 per barrel on Monday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Iran was lying on its implementation of JCPOA conditions.

According to CNN, bringing back sanctions on Iran could knock out as much as 1 million barrels per day of crude supply, dealing a “blow to increasingly fragile energy markets”.

Micheal Wittner, the global head of oil research at Societe Generals, a French multinational banking and financial services, said, “There will be significant disruption. The market is assuming that oil sanctions will snap back onto Iran”.

Read More: Iran warns US not to withdraw from n-deal or face consequences

Meanwhile, Tehran based Press TV reports that the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) exported 2.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate to Asian and European countries in April, a record since the lifting of sanctions in early 2016.

China and India are the biggest buyers taking in 1.4 million bpd of Iran’s oil. South Korea and Japan are Iran’s other key customers in Asia where 60 percent of Iranian oil is exported.

The report further says that Europe receives almost all the other 40 percent of oil shipments from Iran.The major buyers include: France’s Total, Anglo-Dutch Shell, Italy’s Saras, Greek Hellenic Petroleum as well as Polish and Turkish companies.

Read More: Saudi Prince ask US to rethink on Iran-N deal

After January 2016, when US-led sanctions were lifted along with implementation of Iran nuclear deal known as JCPOA, Iran re-emerged as a major oil exporter. However, Trump’s threats to re-impose the US sanctions this month have sent jitters across the global oil market.

Meanwhile Reuters quoted Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore, saying, “As May 12 Iran nuclear deadline nears, geopolitical developments will continue to drive oil market sentiments”.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump said that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s revelations about Iran lying on its nuclear project show he’s “100% right” about the Iranian nuclear agreement. He was quoted saying, “We’ll see what happens. I’m not telling you what I’m doing, but a lot of people think they know.”

Stephen Bennock, the oil analyst at Singapore based brokerage firm PVM Oil Associates, wrote to his clients late last week, “The Iranian nuclear deal is dead in the water and a Trump torpedo is fast approaching.”

Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities, in exchange of lifting sanctions against the country. Iran had quickly boosted its oil production by about 1 million barrels per day after the implementation of the deal in January 2016.

According to FEG estimates, if the sanctions are restored, Iran’s output could be slashed by 250,000 to 50,000 barrels per day by the end of 2018. This figure could rise to 500,000 to 1 million per day through 2019.

Read More: EU: US to lose trust if Washington withdraws from Iran N-deal

FGE has also warned that if no steps are taken to void left by Iran, the gap between supply and demand could shrink to the tightest level since 2013, when oil prices were above $ 100 a barrel.

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Magnitude 7 earthquake strikes Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula

A magnitude 7 earthquake struck Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula region on Friday. The initial report placed the earthquake at a depth of 140 kilometres.

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A magnitude 7 earthquake struck Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula region on Friday, October 16, according to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC).

The initial report placed the earthquake at a depth of 140 kilometres (approximately 87 miles). Details about the impact of the earthquake, including any damage or casualties, were not immediately available in the initial report.

Earthquake strikes seismically active Kamchatka region

Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula is a seismically active region where earthquakes occur because of tectonic activity.

The latest earthquake was reported by the EMSC, which provided the initial magnitude and depth estimates. Further information about the situation on the ground was not available in the initial report.

What is known so far

  • Location: Kamchatka Peninsula region, Russia
  • Magnitude: 7.0
  • Date: Friday, October 16, 2026
  • Reported depth: 140 kilometres
  • Casualties and damage: Not provided in the initial report

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S Jaishankar says India is a natural option for Russia amid Europe tensions

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said India remained a natural option for Russia as Moscow increasingly turned towards Asia amid strained relations with Europe. He highlighted the continuity of India-Russia ties and their significance for the balance of power in Asia.

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External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has described India as a natural option for Russia as Moscow increasingly looks towards Asia amid deteriorating relations with Europe. He said India’s longstanding relationship with Russia had remained steady despite significant changes in the international strategic landscape.

Jaishankar made the remarks during a conversation with John Micklethwait, editor-in-chief of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. He discussed how the Russia-Ukraine war had affected Moscow’s relationship with Europe and contributed to Russia’s growing focus on Asia.

Jaishankar highlights Russia’s shift towards Asia

Jaishankar said Russia’s relationship with Europe had become deeply strained following the Ukraine war. He noted that Russia had historically viewed itself as a European country and placed considerable importance on its relations with Europe and the United States.

However, the conflict had pushed Moscow to look increasingly towards Asia,with much of that shift directed towards China.

The minister said it was in India’s interest, as well as the wider world’s interest, for Russia to maintain multiple relationships in Asia rather than having its options concentrated in one direction.

Against this backdrop, he described India as a natural partner for Russia, pointing to the longstanding nature of the relationship between the two countries.

India-Russia ties remain steady despite global changes

Jaishankar said India and Russia had maintained a consistent relationship over several decades. He emphasised that New Delhi continued to engage with Moscow even as the global order and Russia’s strategic calculations evolved.

According to the minister, India was reassuring Russia that the relationship built over nearly eight decades remained steady despite the changes in Moscow’s relations with Europe and the wider West.

He stressed that India was not passing a value judgment on those changes but was continuing its bilateral engagement with Russia.

Jaishankar said the relationship had benefited both countries and contributed to the balance of power and the broader status quo in Asia. 

Why the relationship matters for Asia

Jaishankar’s remarks highlighted India’s position in Russia’s changing regional outlook. As Moscow increasingly turns towards Asia, India continues to maintain its longstanding ties with Russia while navigating a changing international environment.

The minister’s comments underscored the importance he placed on preserving India-Russia ties and ensuring that Russia maintained multiple relationships in Asia. 

His assessment came against the backdrop of strained Russia-Europe relations following the war in Ukraine, which has reshaped Moscow’s engagement with Western countries and increased its focus on Asian partners.

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Putin praises PM Modi, says he has very good ideas on Ukraine war

Russian President Vladimir Putin has praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi for repeatedly raising the need to end the Ukraine war, describing his ideas for a settlement as “very good”.

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Vladimir Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin has praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his continued efforts to promote an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, saying the Indian leader has “very good ideas” aimed at finding a mutually acceptable solution.

Putin made the remarks while addressing the Valdai Forum of international Russia experts, where he spoke about Modi’s repeated efforts to raise the issue of ending the conflict.

What Putin said about PM Modi

Putin said Modi has continued to raise the question of ending the conflict despite the close and friendly relationship between India and Russia.

According to Putin, the Prime Minister has shown a strong interest in finding a solution and has ideas that could help identify mutually acceptable ways to resolve the conflict.

Putin also described India’s position as neutral while highlighting Modi’s interest in bringing the conflict to an end through peaceful means.

The Russian president expressed gratitude to Modi for his ideas and his desire to see the conflict end as soon as possible.

Modi’s position on the Ukraine war

PM Modi has repeatedly called for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve conflicts, including during his meetings with Putin.

During their September 11 meeting in New Delhi, Modi reiterated that dialogue and diplomacy are the way forward for resolving conflicts.

Modi had also told Putin during their meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek that the situation needed to move from “endless war” towards an end to the war.

India has consistently maintained that conflicts should be addressed through dialogue and peaceful means, with Modi previously describing the present period as not being an era of war.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022 and has continued despite repeated diplomatic efforts to seek a resolution.

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