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Demonetisation hovers like a dark cloud

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9 years ago

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Demonetisation hovers like a dark cloud

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Economic Survey points to the short-term costs which are visible and tangible

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

In President Pranab Mukherjee’s address to the Joint Session of Parliament as the Budget Session kicked off on Tuesday, there was a passing reference to demonetisation, in Para 55, of the more-than-an-hour long and 80-paragraph speech. It seemed as though the government (the President’s address is written by the government) did not want to linger too long on the unpleasant fact of demonetisation.

But an hour after President Mukherjee’s speech and after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley laid the Economic Survey 2016-17 on the table of Lok Sabha, Chief Economic Advisor in the Ministry of Finance, Arvind Subramanian, took the floor at the National Media Centre, to explain to the media the salient points of the survey, which is the official assessment of the state of the economy of the year gone by.

The survey had to take the bulls by the horn as it were, and in this case the bull and its horns happen to be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s November 8, 2016 announcement declaring that Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes will cease to be legal tender. Problems followed, and though the ordinary people bore with the acute inconvenience it had created which emboldened the Prime Minister to believe that the people will back his unpopular decision, the Economic Survey could not look away from the issue staring in the face of the economy.

While describing demonetisation in laudatory terms as “a radical governance-cum-social engineering measure”, and seeking to assess the short-term costs and long-term benefits of the move, the survey could not avoid noting that “the costs have nonetheless been real and significant” ; it also said, “The magnitudes of short-term costs remain uncertain, as do the timing and extent of long-term benefits.”

The survey also emphasises what needs to be done to cushion the hard-landing of demonetisation: “…remonetising the economy expeditiously by supplying as much cash as necessary, especially in lower denomination notes; and complementing demonetisation with more incentive-compatible actions such as bringing land and real estate into the GST, reducing taxes and stamp-duties, and ensuring that demonetisation does not lead to over-zealous tax administration.”

But then he places demonetisation as one of the many measures, including the passing of the GST Bill, the setting up of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in the Reserve Bank of India to calibrate interest rates and to manage inflation, giving Aadhaar a legal basis by making the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIAI) a statutory body. The survey does not give demonetisation the status of a game-changer in itself.

In Chapter 3 of the survey, enticingly entitled “Demonetisation: To Deify or Demonise?” it offers a closer look at the decision. It says that “India’s demonetisation is unprecedented in international economic history” because “all other sudden demonetisations have occurred in the context of hyperinflation, wars, political upheavals, or other extreme circumstances. But the Indian economy had been growing at the fastest clip in the world on the back of stable macroeconomics and an impressive set of reforms. In such normal circumstances, demonetisations – such as the one announced recently in Europe – tend to be phased in gradually.”

And the survey tries to explain, if not explain away, demonetisation, in another way: “In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), advanced economies have used monetary policy t stimulate growth, stretching its use to domains heretofore considered heretical such as negative interest rate policies and “helicopter drops” of money. In fact, India has given a whole new expression to unconventional monetary policy, with the difference that whereas advanced economies have focused on expanding money supply, India’s demonetisation has reduced it. This policy could be described as “reverse helicopter drop”, or perhaps more accurately a “helicopter hoover”.

It can be seen that the survey tries hard to understand and explain the inexplicable demonetisation move, and it has come to the hard conclusion that this would bring down the growth rate by one-fourth or one-half percentage points.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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India and Russia vow to walk together against terrorism, reaffirm strategic partnership

PM Modi and President Putin reaffirm India-Russia unity against terrorism, deepen energy and trade cooperation, and discuss peace efforts amid the Ukraine conflict.

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1 hour ago

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December 5, 2025

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday underlined that India and Russia “walk together in the fight against terrorism,” reinforcing a decades-old strategic partnership that remains steady amid global geopolitical churn. The leaders issued the joint statement following talks at Hyderabad House in Delhi, where they also announced steps to boost trade, economic cooperation, and energy collaboration.

India-Russia stand firm on counter-terror cooperation

PM Modi described President Putin as a “dear friend” and highlighted Moscow’s consistent support to India on counter-terror efforts. Russia had earlier strongly condemned the terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, allegedly linked to Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed, and reiterated solidarity with India’s fight against terrorism in all forms.

The joint remarks emphasized that the bilateral friendship, rooted in trust and mutual respect, has remained resilient for decades despite global challenges.

Focus on energy, trade and use of national currencies

A key highlight of the engagement was Russia reaffirming “uninterrupted shipments” of fuel to India. PM Modi expressed gratitude for Russia’s commitment, noting energy cooperation as a crucial pillar of the relationship. While he did not specifically mention oil purchases, given ongoing Western pressure, he emphasised cooperation in civil nuclear and clean energy.

The two countries also discussed expanding economic ties, including a possible free trade agreement. President Putin said bilateral trade was being targeted to reach USD 100 billion, and acknowledged progress toward using national currencies for payments — a remark expected to draw global attention.

Putin shares peace plan insights on Ukraine conflict

Putin briefed the Prime Minister on Russia’s perspective for a peaceful resolution to the ongoing Ukraine war and appreciated India’s continued role as a “champion of peace.” PM Modi reiterated India’s consistent position on dialogue and diplomacy.

Agreements across jobs, health, shipping and minerals

Officials exchanged multiple agreements covering employment mobility, health, shipping, chemicals and cooperation in critical minerals — further broadening the strategic footprint of the partnership.

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RBI cuts repo rate to 5.25%, paving the way for cheaper loans

The RBI has cut the repo rate to 5.25%, aiming to support growth as inflation softens. The central bank also raised GDP projections and announced liquidity-boosting measures.

Published

6 hours ago

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December 5, 2025

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Reserve Bank of India

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the key repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% on Thursday, signalling relief for borrowers as banks are expected to offer lower EMIs on home and vehicle loans. Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced the move after the conclusion of the three-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

RBI prioritises growth as inflation eases

Malhotra said the decision was unanimous, with the central bank choosing to focus on supporting economic momentum despite concerns over a weak rupee. The repo rate was earlier cut in June from 6% to 5.5% amid easing inflation trends.

The RBI now projects Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 2% for FY2025-26, significantly softer than earlier estimates. For the first quarter of FY2026-27, inflation is expected at 3.9%, lower than the previous projection. The governor noted that rising precious metal prices may contribute to the headline CPI, but overall risks to inflation remain balanced.

GDP outlook strengthened

In a strong upward revision, the central bank increased the GDP forecast for the current financial year to 7.3%, previously estimated at 6.8%. Growth for the October–December quarter has also been revised to 6.7%.

The last quarter registered a six-quarter high expansion of 8.2%, reflecting resilient demand and steady credit flow.

“The growth-inflation balance continues to offer policy space,” Malhotra said, reiterating that the RBI’s stance remains neutral.

Other key decisions

Alongside the repo rate cut, the RBI announced adjustments to key policy corridors:

  • Standing Deposit Facility (SDF): 5%
  • Marginal Standing Facility (MSF): 5.5%

To improve liquidity and strengthen monetary transmission, the RBI will conduct forex swaps and purchase ₹1 lakh crore worth of government bonds through Open Market Operations (OMO).

RBI reviews a challenging year

Reflecting on 2025, Malhotra said the year delivered strong growth and moderate inflation even as global trade and geopolitical uncertainties persisted. He added that bank credit and retail lending remained healthy, providing support to the economy.

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IndiGo flight chaos deepens as over 500 services cancelled, passengers stranded for hours

Over 500 IndiGo flights were cancelled nationwide, leaving passengers stranded without food, clarity or their luggage as airports struggled to manage the disruption.

Published

7 hours ago

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December 5, 2025

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IndiGo flight

India’s largest airline continued to face massive operational breakdowns, triggering frustration among travellers at major airports across the country. From piles of unattended suitcases to passengers waiting over 12 hours without food or clarity, the disruption stretched into its fourth consecutive day.

Long delays, no communication leave passengers anguished

Several travellers at Delhi airport described the situation as “mental torture”, as thousands of unclaimed suitcases lay scattered across the terminal. Many slept on the floor, while others expressed anger over the lack of communication from airline staff.

One flier said he had been waiting for over 12 hours without any explanation: “Every time they say one-hour or two-hour delays. We were going to a wedding but don’t even have our luggage.”

A passenger in Hyderabad recounted a similar ordeal, saying the flight was delayed indefinitely with no food, water, or updates from the airline. At the airport, some travellers blocked an Air India flight in protest over the lack of arrangements.

Goa and Chennai airports also witnessed tense moments. Videos from Goa showed fliers shouting at IndiGo staff as police attempted to calm the situation. At Chennai, CISF denied entry to IndiGo passengers due to heavy congestion.

Major metro airports impacted; cascading cancellations nationwide

Flight cancellations and delays were reported across multiple airports:

  • Over 200 flights were cancelled in Delhi
  • More than 100 each in Mumbai and Bengaluru
  • Around 90 in Hyderabad
  • Dozens more in Pune, Vishakhapatnam, Chennai and Bhopal

Pune airport stated that parking bay congestion worsened the situation, as several IndiGo aircraft remained grounded due to lack of crew. Other airlines continued operations without disruption.

Airport authorities said they had mobilised additional manpower for crowd control and passenger support.

IndiGo admits planning lapses, says more cancellations expected

The airline acknowledged a “misjudgment” in assessing crew requirements under revised night-duty norms, which it said created planning gaps. Winter weather and airport congestion further aggravated the crisis.

IndiGo informed the aviation ministry and DGCA that some regulatory changes—such as the shift in night-duty timings and a cap on night landings—have been rolled back temporarily to stabilise operations.

The airline warned that cancellations may continue for another two to three days, and from December 8, schedules will be trimmed to prevent further disruption.

In a message to employees, CEO Pieter Elbers said restoring punctuality would not be an “easy target”.

Airline issues apology amid nationwide frustration

In a late-night statement, IndiGo apologised to customers and industry partners, acknowledging the widespread inconvenience caused by the disruptions. The airline said all teams were working with authorities to bring operations back to normal.

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