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Demonetisation hovers like a dark cloud

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Demonetisation hovers like a dark cloud

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Economic Survey points to the short-term costs which are visible and tangible

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

In President Pranab Mukherjee’s address to the Joint Session of Parliament as the Budget Session kicked off on Tuesday, there was a passing reference to demonetisation, in Para 55, of the more-than-an-hour long and 80-paragraph speech. It seemed as though the government (the President’s address is written by the government) did not want to linger too long on the unpleasant fact of demonetisation.

But an hour after President Mukherjee’s speech and after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley laid the Economic Survey 2016-17 on the table of Lok Sabha, Chief Economic Advisor in the Ministry of Finance, Arvind Subramanian, took the floor at the National Media Centre, to explain to the media the salient points of the survey, which is the official assessment of the state of the economy of the year gone by.

The survey had to take the bulls by the horn as it were, and in this case the bull and its horns happen to be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s November 8, 2016 announcement declaring that Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes will cease to be legal tender. Problems followed, and though the ordinary people bore with the acute inconvenience it had created which emboldened the Prime Minister to believe that the people will back his unpopular decision, the Economic Survey could not look away from the issue staring in the face of the economy.

While describing demonetisation in laudatory terms as “a radical governance-cum-social engineering measure”, and seeking to assess the short-term costs and long-term benefits of the move, the survey could not avoid noting that “the costs have nonetheless been real and significant” ; it also said, “The magnitudes of short-term costs remain uncertain, as do the timing and extent of long-term benefits.”

The survey also emphasises what needs to be done to cushion the hard-landing of demonetisation: “…remonetising the economy expeditiously by supplying as much cash as necessary, especially in lower denomination notes; and complementing demonetisation with more incentive-compatible actions such as bringing land and real estate into the GST, reducing taxes and stamp-duties, and ensuring that demonetisation does not lead to over-zealous tax administration.”

But then he places demonetisation as one of the many measures, including the passing of the GST Bill, the setting up of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in the Reserve Bank of India to calibrate interest rates and to manage inflation, giving Aadhaar a legal basis by making the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIAI) a statutory body. The survey does not give demonetisation the status of a game-changer in itself.

In Chapter 3 of the survey, enticingly entitled “Demonetisation: To Deify or Demonise?” it offers a closer look at the decision. It says that “India’s demonetisation is unprecedented in international economic history” because “all other sudden demonetisations have occurred in the context of hyperinflation, wars, political upheavals, or other extreme circumstances. But the Indian economy had been growing at the fastest clip in the world on the back of stable macroeconomics and an impressive set of reforms. In such normal circumstances, demonetisations – such as the one announced recently in Europe – tend to be phased in gradually.”

And the survey tries to explain, if not explain away, demonetisation, in another way: “In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), advanced economies have used monetary policy t stimulate growth, stretching its use to domains heretofore considered heretical such as negative interest rate policies and “helicopter drops” of money. In fact, India has given a whole new expression to unconventional monetary policy, with the difference that whereas advanced economies have focused on expanding money supply, India’s demonetisation has reduced it. This policy could be described as “reverse helicopter drop”, or perhaps more accurately a “helicopter hoover”.

It can be seen that the survey tries hard to understand and explain the inexplicable demonetisation move, and it has come to the hard conclusion that this would bring down the growth rate by one-fourth or one-half percentage points.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Sunita Kejriwal holds maiden Lok Sabha election roadshow in Delhi

Sunita Kejriwal will also hold a road show in West Delhi Lok Sabha constituency on Sunday. AAP party leaders said Sunita Kejriwal will also spearhead the campaign for AAP candidates in South Delhi and New Delhi constituencies as well as in Haryana, Gujarat and Punjab.

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April 27, 2024

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Aam Aadmi Party began its campaign for 3rd phase of Lok Sabha elections 2024 on Saturday with Sunita Kejriwal, wife of jailed Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal holding a roadshow in Delhi. In a massive rally, Sunita Kejriwal was be seen standing on a vehicle holding her hands and greeting the people of the area. AAP’s East Delhi candidate Kuldeep Kumar was seen sitting on the vehicle as he showcased a portrait of Rani Laxmibai.

Earlier ahead of Sunita Kejrieal’s roadshow, Kuldeep Kumar told the media that Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal who worked to provide the best school, and free- electricity to the people of Delhi has been framed in a fake case by BJP. Kumar further added that from today onwards Sunita Kejriwal’s roadshow will start and she is going to seek support and blessings from the Delhi people to continue its fight against the BJP government.

Aam Aadmi Party workers also staged a protest under the banner of Jail ka jawab vote se near Delhi’s Lakshmi Nagar area on Saturday against the arrest of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal in connection with an excise policy case.

After the Delhi CM’s arrest by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in the liquor policy case in March, Sunita Kejriwal has taken up a more prominent role in campaigning activities for the Aam Aadmi Party. Since the Delhi CM’s arrest, Atishi and other AAP leaders have alleged that the arrest was made so that to the AAP Supremo can be prevented from campaigning for the Lok Sabha elections. Arvind Kejriwal has been sent to judicial custody until May 7.

Sunita Kejriwal will also hold a road show in West Delhi Lok Sabha constituency on Sunday. AAP party leaders said Sunita Kejriwal will also spearhead the campaign for AAP candidates in South Delhi and New Delhi constituencies as well as in Haryana, Gujarat and Punjab. She is emerging as a star campaigner for Aam Aadmi Party.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Mallikarjun Kharge says candidates for Amethi, Rae Bareli seats in Uttar Pradesh will be announced in a few days

On being asked about the names of the candidates for Amethi and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituencies Mallikarjun Kharge said the people will have to wait for a few more days. He said when the names of candidates come from people to him and he will sign the notification, then the announcement will be made.

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April 27, 2024

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Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge on Saturday said that the candidates for prestigious Amethi and Rae Bareli seats in Uttar Pradesh will be announced in a few days. He was addressing a press conference where he claimed that though the BJP says the corrupt must be put in jails, when leaders facing corruption charges join the saffron party, they are put on the lap and sent to Rajya Sabha or assembly.

On being asked about the names of the candidates for Amethi and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituencies he said the people will have to wait for a few more days. He said when the names of candidates come from people to him and he will sign the notification, then the announcement will be made.

On being questioned about Congress leaders changing constituencies Kharge asked how many times have Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani changed their seats. His response came when asked about the BJP criticising Rahul Gandhi for fighting the elections from Kerala’s Wayanad instead of Amethi. Referring to Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, Kharge said the Congress is not affected by people who grew up in the party and left it later.

The Congress president launched an all round attack on the BJP and PM Modi and said the prime minister did not implement even one of his electoral promises and still says Modi did a lot of work for the country. Addressing the press conference he said the BJP never fought for the independence of India, but Congress is a party of those who made India independent. He said the BJP never fought for the independence of India, for the development of India. The Congress President said the BJP speaks so much about patriotism and that the contribution of Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Lal Bahadur Shastri is nothing before them.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Priyanka Gandhi accuses BJP of planning to change the Constitution, criticises PM Modi for inflation

Priyanka Gandhi was speaking at an election rally at Dharampur village of tribal dominated Valsad district held in support of Congress candidate for ST-reserved Valsad Lok Sabha seat, Anant Patel.

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April 27, 2024

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Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi on Saturday said the BJP may be denying it now, but the party will change the Constitution if it returns to power. She targeted Prime Minister Narendra Modi over inflation and called him the mehengai man.

Gandhi said the BJP leaders and candidates are saying that they will change the Constitution. She said PM Modi is denying it and this is BJP’s tactic. Priyanka Gandhi was speaking at an election rally at Dharampur village of tribal dominated Valsad district, Gujarat held in support of Congress candidate for ST-reserved Valsad Lok Sabha seat, Anant Patel.

Gandhi said first the BJP will deny what they want to do. But after coming to power they will implement it. She further added the BJP wants to change the constitution to weaken the common people and deprive them of their rights given in the Constitution. She said the BJP leaders project the Prime Minister as powerful and say that chutki bajake ladai rukwa dete hai (he can stop the Russia- Ukraine war with the snap of his fingers). She asked why is Prime Minister unable to remove poverty just like that?

Priyanka Gandhi claimed the tribal population in Gujarat which is Modi’s home state and the whole country is suffering from issues like rising inflation, unemployment, low remumberation, loss of land, violence against women and other atrocities. She highlighted the Congress manifesto and said it addresses issues faced by the tribal population.

She assured the people that the Congress will bring schemes like MGNREGA for urban areas where families will get 100 days of guaranteed work. She said the Congress is committed to filing about 30 lakh vacancies in government jobs, providing subsidised diesel to fishermen and take the minimum wage to Rs 400. Gandhi said the Congress is going to work out sub plans for Scheduled Tribes and scheduled castes.

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