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Why India needs a Bad Bank

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Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on arrival to present the General Budget 2017-18 at Parliament House in New Delhi on February 1, UNI

It has now been eight years since the twin balance sheet problem first materialized, and the cost to the government and society is rising

By Sindhu Bhattacharya

Is it just a matter of nerves—this reluctance on the part of the government to set up a Bad Bank which will tackle India’s alarming bad loans’ problem? It is no secret that India’s banks are drowning in bad debt. Ratings agency Fitch had previously expected the stressed-asset ratio for Indian banks to increase to 12% in the financial year to 31 March 2017 (FY17) from 11.4% in FY16. There is now a risk that the ratio will climb higher, thanks to demonetization, it says. Speaking of demonetization, one wonders at a government which has had the nerve to thrust such an economically disruptive measure on a country of over 1.2 billion people but continues to shy away from setting up a Bad Bank to rescue its own banking system from collapse.

The concept of a “bad bank” involves the takeover of assets from public sector lenders, thereby forcing them to focus on their normal commercial activities. It has been tried in some other economies faced with similarly stressed banks. The government’s own Chief Economic Advisor, Arvind Subramanian, has strongly advocated creation of such a bank in the annual report card of the Indian economy presented last week, saying “India has been pursuing a decentralized approach, under which individual banks have been taking restructuring decisions, subject to considerable constraint and distorted incentives. Accordingly, they have repeatedly made the choice to delay resolutions. In contrast East Asia adopted a centralized strategy, which allowed debt problems to be worked out quickly using the vehicle of public asset rehabilitation companies. Perhaps it is time for India to consider the same approach.”

A Credit Suisse report earlier pegged the debt of top 10 stressed corporate houses in India at over Rs 7.5 lakh crore by the end of FY16, up from Rs 7.03 lakh crore at the end of FY15. The debt of these top 10 stressed corporate groups has increased at an extraordinarily rapid rate, tripling in the last six years. Subramanian says in the Economic Survey for 2016-17 “as this has occurred, their interest obligations have climbed rapidly. The aggregate financial position of the stressed companies consequently continues to haemorrhage, with losses now running around Rs 15,000 crore per quarter against a small net profit two years ago.”

Here’s another reminder of how stressed India’s public sector banks, which have the highest exposure to these corporate houses (not the private lenders), are. The Fitch assessment has been given earlier in this piece. And according to the Survey, at its current level, India’s Non Performing Assets (NPA) ratio is higher than any other major emerging market (with the exception of Russia), higher even than the peak levels seen in Korea during the East Asian crisis. In fact, total stressed assets of banks have far exceeded the headline figure of NPAs, he says. Market analysts estimate that the unrecognised debts are around four percent of gross loans and perhaps five percent at public sector banks. In that case, total stressed assets would amount to about 16.6 per cent of banking system loans—and nearly 20 percent of loans at the state banks. So a fifth of all loans at state run banks are stressed.

A banking expert points out that one way to overcome stressed assets of PSU banks is for the government to enhance recapitalization (it is committed to infuse Rs 10,000 crore this fiscal as per the Indradhanush plan) or by selling off some of its stake in these banks. “But PSU banks are facing a chicken and egg problem. If they take hair cut now on corporate loans, then how do they insulate themselves from allegations/scrutiny of corruption? Cutting a deal with private sector guys could create this problem. The government should consider setting up a bad bank because waiting for another upturn in the economic activity which would spur private investment and this improve bad loans’ problem could be a very long wait.” Waiting for economic cycle to upturn may not happen any time soon.

The Fitch report quoted earlier anyway pointed towards demonetisation to say this one step is likely to push back the recovery in Indian banks’ asset quality, given the disruptive impact that cash shortages have had on the country’s large informal economy. ”We still believe that asset-quality indicators are close to their weakest level and will recover slowly over the next few years, but any turnaround is likely to have been pushed back by at least two quarters. The impact of demonetisation on asset quality is likely to only start showing up significantly in data for the January-March quarter. However, most state banks have already indicated publicly that loan recovery has been affected.”

Fitch has also said that Indian banks will require around $90 billion in new total capital by end-FY19 to meet Basel III standards. The government is providing core equity, but its earmarked sum of $10.4 billion—around 70% of which is due to be paid out by March 2017 – may not be sufficient to meet needs.

This is perhaps where Finance Minister Arun Jaitley seems cautious about setting up a bad bank. Recapitalisation or bad bank—both scenarios require investment from the budget proceeds which he is unwilling to shoulder all by himself.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/bad-bank-can-t-be-supported-by-govt-alone-says-arun-jaitley-117020301397_1.html

This piece quotes the FM as saying that a bad bank cannot be supported by government alone. So who else, besides the state, will take a hair cut?

Already, it has been patting itself on the back about saving Indians from a run on the banks despite mounting NPAs. This refers to a situation where banks which are stressed eventually collapse – they do so in other economies but haven’t done so in India despite historic levels of bad debts because the government has been holding their hand and infusing cash, saving the country from imminent disaster. “There have been no bank runs, no stress in the interbank market and no need for any liquidity support, at any point since the TBS (twin balance sheet) problem first emerged in 2010. And all for a very good reason: because the bulk of the problem has been concentrated in the public sector banks, which not only hold their own capital but are ultimately backed by the government, whose resources are more than sufficient to deal with the NPA problem,” the Economic Survey notes.  

The urgency in creating a bad bank—however it gets funded—stems from this: aggregate cash flow in the stressed companies—which even in 2014 wasn’t sufficient to service their debts—has fallen by roughly 40 percent in less than two years. It has now been eight years since the twin balance sheet problem first materialized, and it has not been resolved even as the financial position of the stressed debtors is deteriorating. The ultimate cost to the government and society is rising—not just financially, but also in terms of foregone economic growth and the risks to future growth.

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Google reduces 10% of managerial staff to enhance efficiency and ‘Googleyness’

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Google has pruned its managerial workforce, reducing it by 10% in a move aimed at streamlining operations and redefining its corporate culture in a year-long push. This pruning, part of a broader efficiency drive, includes a 10% cut at manager, director, and vice president levels.

Reports indicate that during an all-hands meeting, CEO Sundar Pichai outlined the rationale behind the decision, emphasizing the need for efficiency and redefining the company’s core values, often referred to as “Googleyness.”

A Google spokesperson revealed that some affected employees would transition to individual contributor roles, while others faced role eliminations. These adjustments come amidst growing challenges in the tech industry, particularly with rapid developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and fierce competition from rivals like OpenAI.

The AI race and Google’s response

The tech giant has recently intensified its focus on AI innovations, unveiling Gemini 2.0, its most advanced AI model yet. Sundar Pichai described the new model as heralding a “new agentic era” in which AI systems are designed to comprehend and make decisions about the world.

This announcement boosted Google’s stock, which surged by over 4% following the news, a day after a 3.5% increase attributed to breakthroughs in its quantum chip technology.

Previous layoffs in 2024

The latest layoffs mark Google’s fourth round of job cuts in 2024. Earlier in January, Google eliminated several hundred positions in its global advertisements team. In June, its cloud unit also saw workforce reductions. By January of this year, Google had already cut 12,000 roles, equivalent to 6.4% of its global workforce.

In a letter addressed to employees during the earlier layoffs, Pichai took responsibility for the decisions, stating that the company had experienced dramatic growth that required adjustments to sustain operations. Despite efforts, he acknowledged the process could have been managed better.

Redefining ‘Googleyness’

At the same meeting, Pichai stressed the need to revisit and reshape the concept of “Googleyness.” This term, often used to define the company’s unique culture and hiring philosophy, will now play a pivotal role in transforming corporate dynamics to adapt to new challenges.

The adjustments highlight Google’s commitment to staying competitive while reshaping its operational framework to remain aligned with its long-term vision.

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Zomato introduces Food Rescue feature

“We don’t encourage order cancellation at Zomato, because it leads to a tremendous amount of food wastage,” he said.

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Zomato has introduced a new feature called Food Rescue to minimise food wastage, announced the food delivery platform CEO Deepinder Goyal on Sunday.

Announcing the new feature on X, Goyal said the decision, to introduce the new feature, was taken to prevent the tremendous amount of food wastage due to order cancellation on the platform.

Committed to minimising food wastage, the Zomato boss said: “We don’t encourage order cancellation at Zomato, because it leads to a tremendous amount of food wastage.”

Goyal said despite having stringent policies, and a no-refund policy for cancellations, more than 4 lakh perfectly good orders get cancelled, for various reasons by customers.

He said the top concern for the online food delivery platform, the restaurant industry, and even the customers who cancel these orders, is to somehow save the food from going to waste.

With the launch of the new feature, Food Rescue, cancelled orders will now pop up for nearby customers, who can grab them at an unbeatable price, in their original untampered packaging, and receive them in just minutes.

According to Zomato, the cancelled order will pop up on the app for customers within a 3 km radius of the delivery partner carrying the order. To ensure freshness, the option to claim will only be available for a few minutes.

The online food delivery platform will not keep any proceeds except the required government taxes and the amount paid by the new customer will be shared with the original customer (if they made payment online) and with the restaurant partner.

Orders containing items sensitive to distances or temperature such as ice creams, shakes, smoothies, and certain perishable items, will not be eligible for Food Rescue.

Restaurant partners will continue to receive compensation for the original cancelled order, plus a portion of the amount paid by the new customer if the order is claimed, the company said. “Most restaurants have opted in for this feature, and can opt of it easily whenever they want, directly from their control panels,” it added.

The delivery partners will be compensated fully for the entire trip, from the initial pickup to the final drop-off at the new customer’s location, it said.

Food Rescue will show up on the customers’ home page automatically if there’s a cancelled order available for them to grab. The Customers have to refresh the home page to check for any newly available orders which need to be rescued.

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Adani, Torrent compete to purchase Gujarat Titans from CVC Capital

The probable sale of the Gujarat Titans, with the lock-in period coming to a close, will therefore be a defining moment in the changing face of IPL investments.

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The Adani Group and Torrent Group are currently negotiating a deal with private equity firm CVC Capital Partners to offload a controlling stake in the Indian Premier League franchise Gujarat Titans. According to sources, close to the development, reports say CVC Capital Partners will be looking to sell a majority interest while retaining a minority share in the franchise.

This becomes important because it is aligned with the end of the lock-in period by the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI), which restricts any new teams from selling stakes until February 2025. The three-year-old franchise Gujarat Titans is reportedly worth $1 billion to $1.5 billion. CVC Capital Partners had paid ₹5,625 crore for the franchise in 2021.

A source close to the development pointed out that IPL franchises have attracted many investors’ interest since the league has proved an asset with a good reputation for money-making capabilities and cash flows. This growing interest of investors embodies the financial value and stability that come with the IPL franchises.

Gautam Adani, who owns teams in the Women’s Premier League and UAE-based International League T20, is understood to be one of the serious buyers. In 2023, Adani’s group won the Ahmedabad franchise in the WPL with a bid of Rs1,289 crore, the highest offer. His interests in this potential deal signal his commitment to expanding his footprint in the cricketing world.

Arvinder Singh, COO of Gujarat Titans, exuded confidence in the financial future of the franchise. He said the team was confident of turning profitable in the next media rights cycle, referring to even the original ten IPL franchises that took four to five years to turn profitable. He added confidently that the Gujarat Titans would not only turn profitable but significantly enhance in brand value.
 
This surging interest of investors in it is evidence of the growing financial attractiveness of IPL franchises, driven by healthy revenue streams and an increasing global footprint. The probable sale of the Gujarat Titans, with the lock-in period coming to a close, will therefore be a defining moment in the changing face of IPL investments.

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