English हिन्दी
Connect with us

Latest business news

Why India needs a Bad Bank

Published

on

Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on arrival to present the General Budget 2017-18 at Parliament House in New Delhi on February 1, UNI

It has now been eight years since the twin balance sheet problem first materialized, and the cost to the government and society is rising

By Sindhu Bhattacharya

Is it just a matter of nerves—this reluctance on the part of the government to set up a Bad Bank which will tackle India’s alarming bad loans’ problem? It is no secret that India’s banks are drowning in bad debt. Ratings agency Fitch had previously expected the stressed-asset ratio for Indian banks to increase to 12% in the financial year to 31 March 2017 (FY17) from 11.4% in FY16. There is now a risk that the ratio will climb higher, thanks to demonetization, it says. Speaking of demonetization, one wonders at a government which has had the nerve to thrust such an economically disruptive measure on a country of over 1.2 billion people but continues to shy away from setting up a Bad Bank to rescue its own banking system from collapse.

The concept of a “bad bank” involves the takeover of assets from public sector lenders, thereby forcing them to focus on their normal commercial activities. It has been tried in some other economies faced with similarly stressed banks. The government’s own Chief Economic Advisor, Arvind Subramanian, has strongly advocated creation of such a bank in the annual report card of the Indian economy presented last week, saying “India has been pursuing a decentralized approach, under which individual banks have been taking restructuring decisions, subject to considerable constraint and distorted incentives. Accordingly, they have repeatedly made the choice to delay resolutions. In contrast East Asia adopted a centralized strategy, which allowed debt problems to be worked out quickly using the vehicle of public asset rehabilitation companies. Perhaps it is time for India to consider the same approach.”

A Credit Suisse report earlier pegged the debt of top 10 stressed corporate houses in India at over Rs 7.5 lakh crore by the end of FY16, up from Rs 7.03 lakh crore at the end of FY15. The debt of these top 10 stressed corporate groups has increased at an extraordinarily rapid rate, tripling in the last six years. Subramanian says in the Economic Survey for 2016-17 “as this has occurred, their interest obligations have climbed rapidly. The aggregate financial position of the stressed companies consequently continues to haemorrhage, with losses now running around Rs 15,000 crore per quarter against a small net profit two years ago.”

Here’s another reminder of how stressed India’s public sector banks, which have the highest exposure to these corporate houses (not the private lenders), are. The Fitch assessment has been given earlier in this piece. And according to the Survey, at its current level, India’s Non Performing Assets (NPA) ratio is higher than any other major emerging market (with the exception of Russia), higher even than the peak levels seen in Korea during the East Asian crisis. In fact, total stressed assets of banks have far exceeded the headline figure of NPAs, he says. Market analysts estimate that the unrecognised debts are around four percent of gross loans and perhaps five percent at public sector banks. In that case, total stressed assets would amount to about 16.6 per cent of banking system loans—and nearly 20 percent of loans at the state banks. So a fifth of all loans at state run banks are stressed.

A banking expert points out that one way to overcome stressed assets of PSU banks is for the government to enhance recapitalization (it is committed to infuse Rs 10,000 crore this fiscal as per the Indradhanush plan) or by selling off some of its stake in these banks. “But PSU banks are facing a chicken and egg problem. If they take hair cut now on corporate loans, then how do they insulate themselves from allegations/scrutiny of corruption? Cutting a deal with private sector guys could create this problem. The government should consider setting up a bad bank because waiting for another upturn in the economic activity which would spur private investment and this improve bad loans’ problem could be a very long wait.” Waiting for economic cycle to upturn may not happen any time soon.

The Fitch report quoted earlier anyway pointed towards demonetisation to say this one step is likely to push back the recovery in Indian banks’ asset quality, given the disruptive impact that cash shortages have had on the country’s large informal economy. ”We still believe that asset-quality indicators are close to their weakest level and will recover slowly over the next few years, but any turnaround is likely to have been pushed back by at least two quarters. The impact of demonetisation on asset quality is likely to only start showing up significantly in data for the January-March quarter. However, most state banks have already indicated publicly that loan recovery has been affected.”

Fitch has also said that Indian banks will require around $90 billion in new total capital by end-FY19 to meet Basel III standards. The government is providing core equity, but its earmarked sum of $10.4 billion—around 70% of which is due to be paid out by March 2017 – may not be sufficient to meet needs.

This is perhaps where Finance Minister Arun Jaitley seems cautious about setting up a bad bank. Recapitalisation or bad bank—both scenarios require investment from the budget proceeds which he is unwilling to shoulder all by himself.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/bad-bank-can-t-be-supported-by-govt-alone-says-arun-jaitley-117020301397_1.html

This piece quotes the FM as saying that a bad bank cannot be supported by government alone. So who else, besides the state, will take a hair cut?

Already, it has been patting itself on the back about saving Indians from a run on the banks despite mounting NPAs. This refers to a situation where banks which are stressed eventually collapse – they do so in other economies but haven’t done so in India despite historic levels of bad debts because the government has been holding their hand and infusing cash, saving the country from imminent disaster. “There have been no bank runs, no stress in the interbank market and no need for any liquidity support, at any point since the TBS (twin balance sheet) problem first emerged in 2010. And all for a very good reason: because the bulk of the problem has been concentrated in the public sector banks, which not only hold their own capital but are ultimately backed by the government, whose resources are more than sufficient to deal with the NPA problem,” the Economic Survey notes.  

The urgency in creating a bad bank—however it gets funded—stems from this: aggregate cash flow in the stressed companies—which even in 2014 wasn’t sufficient to service their debts—has fallen by roughly 40 percent in less than two years. It has now been eight years since the twin balance sheet problem first materialized, and it has not been resolved even as the financial position of the stressed debtors is deteriorating. The ultimate cost to the government and society is rising—not just financially, but also in terms of foregone economic growth and the risks to future growth.

India News

Why Hindenburg Research is shutting down: A personal note from the founder

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

Published

on

Nate Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research, has decided to shut down his short-selling venture, which has famously exposed alleged frauds amounting to billions and sent shockwaves through major corporations. From igniting a $150 billion crisis for the Adani Group to taking down giants like Nikola and Eros International, Hindenburg has become synonymous with financial scrutiny and controversy depending on one’s perspective.

In a comprehensive blog post titled “Personal Note From Our Founder,” Anderson revealed his decision, stating that the firm has fulfilled its mission and that it is time to move forward. “As I’ve shared with family, friends, and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research,” he wrote.

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

This announcement follows Hindenburg’s completion of its final investigations into alleged financial fraud, which have been submitted to regulators. “As of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today,” Anderson noted.

Reflecting on his career, he acknowledged that his intense dedication to the firm had come at the expense of other life areas. Initially motivated by a desire to prove himself, he ultimately began to view Hindenburg Research as just one of many chapters in his life.

In the upcoming six months, Anderson plans to create and share content, including materials and videos, to transparently illustrate the firm’s investigative techniques. He hopes this will inspire others to pursue similar efforts.

Hindenburg Research operated with a small but committed team of 11 members. Anderson praised their dedication to precise, evidence-based reporting and their courage in uncovering financial fraud. His team’s efforts have significantly influenced the landscape of financial accountability, with nearly 100 individuals facing civil or criminal charges partially attributable to their investigations.

“Nearly 100 individuals have been charged civilly or criminally by regulators, at least in part due to our work, including billionaires and oligarchs. We shook some empires that we felt needed shaking,” Anderson stated.

Hindenburg garnered international attention in January 2023 when it published a report alleging fraud and stock manipulation by the Adani Group. This report triggered a massive selloff in Adani’s stock, erasing over $100 billion from Gautam Adani’s personal wealth and causing the market capitalization of 10 Adani Group companies to plummet from ₹19.19 lakh crore on January 24, 2023, to below ₹7 lakh crore by February 27.

Although Adani stocks eventually recovered, the Supreme Court later noted that allegations made by organizations like Hindenburg, without proper verification, cannot be considered valid evidence. Previously, Hindenburg’s investigations included exposing Nikola Corporation in 2020 for fraud, which resulted in the resignation of founder Trevor Milton.

Continue Reading

India News

Sensex sheds 1,049 points, Nifty drops below 23,100

Published

on

Sensex falls 1,049 points, Nifty slips below 23,100 amid market downturn

The Indian stock market faced another day of sharp declines on January 13, as bearish sentiments tightened their grip for the fourth consecutive session. Weak global cues, a surge in crude oil prices to a three-month high, and reduced expectations of a U.S. rate cut in 2025 contributed to the downward spiral.

At the close of trading, the Sensex plunged 1,048.90 points or 1.36% to settle at 76,330.01. The Nifty also fell significantly, shedding 345.55 points or 1.47% to close at 23,085.95.

Sectoral impact

All sectoral indices ended the session in the red. The realty index was the worst hit, slumping by 6.7%. Other sectors, including oil & gas, power, PSU, metal, and media, recorded losses in the range of 3-4%.

This broad-based sell-off saw investors’ wealth take a major hit. The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies dropped sharply by Rs 12.39 lakh crore, falling to Rs 417.28 lakh crore from Rs 429.67 lakh crore in the previous session.

Key drivers of the decline

Crude oil prices: Crude oil surged to a three-month high, stoking fears of inflationary pressures and higher input costs across industries.

Global market trends: Weak global markets added to investor apprehensions, as global indices reflected a cautious outlook amid economic uncertainties.

Interest rate concerns: Revised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in 2025 also weighed on investor sentiment.

Outlook

Market experts suggest that volatility may persist in the near term as global and domestic factors continue to influence investor behavior. A focus on corporate earnings reports and international economic trends will be critical in shaping market movements in the weeks ahead.

With a significant erosion in investor wealth, market participants remain cautious as they navigate the ongoing uncertainties.

Continue Reading

Latest business news

Pune entrepreneur asks Blinkit CEO to launch ATM service after Ambulance, sparks debate

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

Published

on

Days after Blinkit launched its 10-minute ambulance service, a start-up founder and YouTuber reached out to Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa with a request to introduce an “ATM-like” service. The founder suggested that this service would be “incredibly helpful.”

Harsh Punjabi, founder of The Dot Company and a YouTuber, posted on social media platform X: “Hey @albinder, please start an ATM-like service on Blinkit. Users could pay via UPI, and cash could be delivered to their doorstep in under 10 minutes. That would be super helpful!”

His rationale for this suggestion became clear in a follow-up tweet where he expressed, “Leaving for a trip and need cash. I only have Rs 100 at home. I don’t want to go to the ATM, but it looks like I’ll have to.”

Punjabi’s tweet sparked a variety of responses. Some users pointed out that delivery charges would incur an 18 percent GST, while others claimed that the idea would make Indians lazier. Many questioned the need for cash, given the widespread acceptance of UPI.

One user remarked, “The idea is good, but the 18 percent GST on delivery charges would ruin everything,” while another joked, “This scheme should be kept a secret.”

Another user lamented, “Why doesn’t Blinkit breathe on our behalf too? We’ve become that lazy,” and another added humorously, “Please, let’s not make India lazy to this extent.”

A user highlighted that similar arrangements exist where customers go to shops, pay extra for their bills, and take back the additional cash for tasks like paying rickshaw pullers.

“Why do you want cash? Cash should be eliminated. We need maximum digitalization,” one user opined, while another noted that acquiring smaller notes can be tricky, especially when UPI isn’t an option.

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

On January 2, Blinkit announced its ambulance service. Dhindsa stated, “We are taking our first step toward addressing the challenge of providing quick and reliable ambulance services in our cities. The first five ambulances will be operational in Gurugram starting today. As we expand, users will soon have the option to book a Basic Life Support (BLS) ambulance through the Blinkit app.”

Continue Reading

Trending

© Copyright 2022 APNLIVE.com