English हिन्दी
Connect with us

Latest business news

India’s growth rate overestimated by 2.5%, says study by former chief economic advisor

Published

on

Wealth Indian currency

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A new study by none less than India’s former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian may have punctured India’s much vaunted status as world’s fastest growing economy.

Titled India’s GDP Mis-estimation: Likelihood, Magnitudes, Mechanisms, and Implications, Subramanian’s working paper for the Center for International Development at Harvard University, US, is critical of Indian statisticians and the way India’s GDP growth has been estimated after 2011-12.

It says the expansion was overestimated by as much as 2.5 per cent between 2011 and 2017, that is, during UPA-2 and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first term. Rather than growing at about 7% a year in that period, growth was about 4.5%.However, it doesn’t break this down by year.

But this means India’s claim of being the world’s fastest-growing major economy may not have been true.

“The Indian policy automobile has been navigated with a faulty, possibly broken, speedometer,” says Arvind Subramanian, who was Chief Economic Adviser for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government between 2014 and 2018. He asserts that the overestimation is not political.

“My new research suggests that post-global financial crisis, the heady narrative of a guns-blazing India – that statisticians led us to believe – may have to cede to a more realistic one of an economy growing solidly but not spectacularly,” Subramanian wrote in The Indian Express, attributing the overestimation to “methodological changes”.

The previous Congress-led government changed the methodology in calculating gross domestic product in 2012. One of the key adjustments was a shift to financial accounts-based data compiled by the Ministry of Corporate Affairs, from volume-based data previously. This made GDP estimates more sensitive to price changes, in a period of lower oil prices, according to the research paper. Rather than deflate input values by input prices, the new methodology deflated these values by output prices, which could have overstated manufacturing growth.

Also Read: Cyclone Vayu to hit Gujarat on June 13 morning, delay northward progress of monsoon

Subramanian carried out an experiment, one that many other economists have also been doing for India: he made an index of other data sources that could reflect what is happening in the actual economy, such as electricity consumption, two-wheeler sales, index of industrial production and so on. None of these were figures that came from the Central Statistical Office, which compiles the GDP statistics.

Subramanian’s index found that these indicators tend to move closely in step with the GDP number between 2001-’02 and 2011-’12. But from 2011-’12 to 2016-’17, there are huge gaps between them. The paper uses various methods, including indicators from India and other countries, to test mis-estimation in growth, all of which confirm the belief that GDP growth was over-estimated.

Subramanian insists that the paper is only the start, and much more research needs to be done. But, in looking at the data, he does offer one explanation for why the new methodology of calculating GDP might have thrown out bad data.

Based on the experiment, Subramanian finds that before 2011, the official estimates of manufacturing move along with other indicators, like the index of industrial production. But under the new methodology, this connection is completely broken.

The reasons for this are more complicated but, to put it simply, the paper suggests that the new GDP methodology does not properly take into account how changes in global oil prices (and possibly other “input” commodities) might affect actual figures. Ultimately, this means that the new GDP methodology has a completely flawed understanding of manufacturing numbers.

But this only explains about a 1 percentage point of the overall 2.5 percentage point over-estimation. More research is needed to understand what else is going wrong.

Subramanian points out that this isn’t just a matter of denting India’s reputation. Bad data would also affect policymaking For example, the Reserve Bank of India might have cut interest rates much earlier if it was known that GDP growth was that much lower, and the government might have moved much quicker to resolve the banking crisis or agricultural concerns.

According to the former top economic adviser, the popular narrative has been one of “jobless growth”, hinting at a disconnect between fundamental dynamism and key outcomes. “In reality,weak job growth and acute financial sector stress may have simply stemmed from modest GDP growth. Going forward, there must be reform urgency stemming from the new knowledge that growth has been tepid, not torrid; And from recognising that growth of 4.5 per cent will make the government’s laudable inclusion agenda difficult to sustain fiscally.”

Also Read: AN-32’s wreckage found in Arunachal Pradesh eight days after it went missing

Dr Subramanian explains that when he was working with the government, he had grappled with conflicting data and “raised doubts frequently” with the government. “But the time and space afforded by being outside government were necessary to undertake months of very detailed research, including subjecting it to careful scrutiny and cross-checking by numerous colleagues, to generate robust evidence,” he says.

The paper has three recommendations for what India needs to do:

India must “restore growth as a key policy objective”.

India must “restore the reputational damage suffered to data generation,” not only by giving statutory independence to the National Statistical Commission (which currently has no independent members) but also by hiring people with “stellar technical and personal reputations”.

The entire methodology and implementation for GDP estimation must be revisited by an independent task force, comprising both national and international experts, with impeccable technical credentials and demonstrable stature.

On the other hand, the politically appointed NITI Aayog was seen as interfering with India’s statistical operations. Recently, word has emerged that the BJP is thinking about a new law to merge the main bodies that work on statistics, potentially undermining their independence.

 

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Why Hindenburg Research is shutting down: A personal note from the founder

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

Published

on

Nate Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research, has decided to shut down his short-selling venture, which has famously exposed alleged frauds amounting to billions and sent shockwaves through major corporations. From igniting a $150 billion crisis for the Adani Group to taking down giants like Nikola and Eros International, Hindenburg has become synonymous with financial scrutiny and controversy depending on one’s perspective.

In a comprehensive blog post titled “Personal Note From Our Founder,” Anderson revealed his decision, stating that the firm has fulfilled its mission and that it is time to move forward. “As I’ve shared with family, friends, and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research,” he wrote.

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

This announcement follows Hindenburg’s completion of its final investigations into alleged financial fraud, which have been submitted to regulators. “As of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today,” Anderson noted.

Reflecting on his career, he acknowledged that his intense dedication to the firm had come at the expense of other life areas. Initially motivated by a desire to prove himself, he ultimately began to view Hindenburg Research as just one of many chapters in his life.

In the upcoming six months, Anderson plans to create and share content, including materials and videos, to transparently illustrate the firm’s investigative techniques. He hopes this will inspire others to pursue similar efforts.

Hindenburg Research operated with a small but committed team of 11 members. Anderson praised their dedication to precise, evidence-based reporting and their courage in uncovering financial fraud. His team’s efforts have significantly influenced the landscape of financial accountability, with nearly 100 individuals facing civil or criminal charges partially attributable to their investigations.

“Nearly 100 individuals have been charged civilly or criminally by regulators, at least in part due to our work, including billionaires and oligarchs. We shook some empires that we felt needed shaking,” Anderson stated.

Hindenburg garnered international attention in January 2023 when it published a report alleging fraud and stock manipulation by the Adani Group. This report triggered a massive selloff in Adani’s stock, erasing over $100 billion from Gautam Adani’s personal wealth and causing the market capitalization of 10 Adani Group companies to plummet from ₹19.19 lakh crore on January 24, 2023, to below ₹7 lakh crore by February 27.

Although Adani stocks eventually recovered, the Supreme Court later noted that allegations made by organizations like Hindenburg, without proper verification, cannot be considered valid evidence. Previously, Hindenburg’s investigations included exposing Nikola Corporation in 2020 for fraud, which resulted in the resignation of founder Trevor Milton.

Continue Reading

India News

Sensex sheds 1,049 points, Nifty drops below 23,100

Published

on

Sensex falls 1,049 points, Nifty slips below 23,100 amid market downturn

The Indian stock market faced another day of sharp declines on January 13, as bearish sentiments tightened their grip for the fourth consecutive session. Weak global cues, a surge in crude oil prices to a three-month high, and reduced expectations of a U.S. rate cut in 2025 contributed to the downward spiral.

At the close of trading, the Sensex plunged 1,048.90 points or 1.36% to settle at 76,330.01. The Nifty also fell significantly, shedding 345.55 points or 1.47% to close at 23,085.95.

Sectoral impact

All sectoral indices ended the session in the red. The realty index was the worst hit, slumping by 6.7%. Other sectors, including oil & gas, power, PSU, metal, and media, recorded losses in the range of 3-4%.

This broad-based sell-off saw investors’ wealth take a major hit. The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies dropped sharply by Rs 12.39 lakh crore, falling to Rs 417.28 lakh crore from Rs 429.67 lakh crore in the previous session.

Key drivers of the decline

Crude oil prices: Crude oil surged to a three-month high, stoking fears of inflationary pressures and higher input costs across industries.

Global market trends: Weak global markets added to investor apprehensions, as global indices reflected a cautious outlook amid economic uncertainties.

Interest rate concerns: Revised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in 2025 also weighed on investor sentiment.

Outlook

Market experts suggest that volatility may persist in the near term as global and domestic factors continue to influence investor behavior. A focus on corporate earnings reports and international economic trends will be critical in shaping market movements in the weeks ahead.

With a significant erosion in investor wealth, market participants remain cautious as they navigate the ongoing uncertainties.

Continue Reading

Latest business news

Pune entrepreneur asks Blinkit CEO to launch ATM service after Ambulance, sparks debate

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

Published

on

Days after Blinkit launched its 10-minute ambulance service, a start-up founder and YouTuber reached out to Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa with a request to introduce an “ATM-like” service. The founder suggested that this service would be “incredibly helpful.”

Harsh Punjabi, founder of The Dot Company and a YouTuber, posted on social media platform X: “Hey @albinder, please start an ATM-like service on Blinkit. Users could pay via UPI, and cash could be delivered to their doorstep in under 10 minutes. That would be super helpful!”

His rationale for this suggestion became clear in a follow-up tweet where he expressed, “Leaving for a trip and need cash. I only have Rs 100 at home. I don’t want to go to the ATM, but it looks like I’ll have to.”

Punjabi’s tweet sparked a variety of responses. Some users pointed out that delivery charges would incur an 18 percent GST, while others claimed that the idea would make Indians lazier. Many questioned the need for cash, given the widespread acceptance of UPI.

One user remarked, “The idea is good, but the 18 percent GST on delivery charges would ruin everything,” while another joked, “This scheme should be kept a secret.”

Another user lamented, “Why doesn’t Blinkit breathe on our behalf too? We’ve become that lazy,” and another added humorously, “Please, let’s not make India lazy to this extent.”

A user highlighted that similar arrangements exist where customers go to shops, pay extra for their bills, and take back the additional cash for tasks like paying rickshaw pullers.

“Why do you want cash? Cash should be eliminated. We need maximum digitalization,” one user opined, while another noted that acquiring smaller notes can be tricky, especially when UPI isn’t an option.

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

On January 2, Blinkit announced its ambulance service. Dhindsa stated, “We are taking our first step toward addressing the challenge of providing quick and reliable ambulance services in our cities. The first five ambulances will be operational in Gurugram starting today. As we expand, users will soon have the option to book a Basic Life Support (BLS) ambulance through the Blinkit app.”

Continue Reading

Trending

© Copyright 2022 APNLIVE.com