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RBI cuts interest rates as economy slows, India loses out to China as fastest growing economy

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RBI cuts interest rates as economy slows, India loses out to China as fastest growing economy

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), led by Governor Shaktikanta Das, on Thursday unanimously lowered key lending rate or repo rate by 25 basis points or 0.25 per cent to 5.75 per cent amid dismal gross domestic product (GDP) growth, subdued investment and slowdown in consumption space.

The six-member MPC also changed the policy stance to “accommodative” from “neutral”.

Repo rate is the interest rate at which commercial banks borrow short-term funds from the RBI. Thursday’s decision comes after conclusion of a three-day meeting of the MPC. This was the third time in a row that the RBI lowered the key interest bringing it to a level last seen in September 2010.

The reverse repo rate and bank rate have been adjusted at 5.50 and 6.0 per cent respectively. The bank also lowered the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2019-20 to 7 per cent from 7.2 per cent in earlier projection.

Inflation projection has been raised to 3-3.1 per cent for April-September and 3.4-3.7 per cent or the second half of the year.

RBI has decided to do away with charges levied on RTGS and NEFT transactions, banks will be required to pass this benefit to their customers.

As and when the banks decide to pass on the rate cut, consumers could see home, auto and other loans getting cheaper. For retail consumers, a cut in rates could have a two-pronged impact. For depositors, new deposits will earn a lower rate and thereby lower returns. For borrowers, though, a downward movement of interest rate would bring down the interest outgo in the near future. For floating rate home loans, however, a new rate becomes effective on the reset date of the loan.

The cut in interest rate was on expected lines. Two-thirds of 66 economists in a poll conducted by news agency Reuters ahead of the release of GDP data had expected MPC to announce a 25-basis-points cut in the repo rate to 5.75 per cent.

The rate cut comes after official data last month showed the country’s GDP or gross domestic product grew 5.8 per cent in the quarter ended March 31. That meant India lost its status as the fastest growing major economy to China, which clocked a growth of 6.4 per cent in the three-month period.

The RBI has lowered its GDP target for financial year 2019-20 to 7 per cent from 7.2 per cent. The consumer inflation for the first half of financial year 2019-20 has been pegged in range of 3-3.1 per cent with risks evenly balanced, RBI noted in the policy statement.

In February, the committee had cut repo rate by 25 basis points from 6.50 per cent to 6.25 per cent. The MPC had then shifted its stance to ‘neutral’ from ‘calibrated tightening’.

Then, in its first meeting in FY’20, the MPC on April 4 had cut the key lending rate by 25 basis points from 6.25 per cent to 6 per cent. Reverse repo rate had been adjusted to 5.75 per cent and the committee had kept the monetary policy stance at ‘neutral’. The RBI had projected a GDP growth of 7.2 per cent for 2019-20, a revision from its February view of 7.4 per cent. It had also said that the consumer inflation was 2.57 per cent in February.

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Financial changes effective from September, Aadhaar update, nomination deadline for demat account

Some changes will take effect on the first day, while others will be implemented later in the month. This list will affect people’s finances.

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In the month of September, there are many changes occurring, particularly in the financial sector. Some changes will take effect on the first day, while others will be implemented later in the month. This list will affect people’s finances.

The deadline to update an individual’s Aadhaar card details for free is quickly approaching. The Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) extended the deadline from June 14 to September 14, 2023. This scheme is specifically for citizens who obtained their Aadhaar card 10 years ago and have yet to update their information. People can take this opportunity to update their details before it’s too late.

The nomination process for trading and demat accounts is mandatory for holders and the deadline for this has been extended by the Security and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The account holders have to make nominations or opt out of it before September 30.

People will need to update and link of Aadhaar identity documents with PAN cards. Those who have credit cards from Axis Bank will also experience the effects of these changes starting this month.

As per the updated terms and conditions, Axis Bank’s Magnus credit card users need to pay higher fees. The annual fee has been increased to Rs 12,500. Also, the benefits associated with the card will be updated.  

This month marks the final opportunity for individuals to exchange Rs 2,000 notes. As stated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in May, individuals may exchange or deposit these notes into their bank accounts before the specified deadline.

The central bank has specified that individuals may exchange or deposit for lower denomination notes, up to Rs 20,000 at a time, until September 30th. Interestingly, even after the deadline, Rs 2,000 notes will still be considered valid tender.

Starting from the current financial year, the Ministry of Finance has made it mandatory to provide both Permanent Account Number (PAN) and Aadhaar card information when making investments in small saving schemes such as the Public Provident Fund (PPF), Post Office Saving Scheme, and Senior Citizens Saving Scheme (SCSS). Existing subscribers must submit their Aadhaar number before September 30th, or their accounts will be frozen.

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India will remain on similar growth curve till 2030, expect well behaved inflation this fiscal: CEA

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday projected that India’s economy was poised to do better and expected to grow at 6.5-7 percent till the end of the decade.

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Economic Survey

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday projected that India’s economy was poised to do better and expected to grow at 6.5-7 percent till the end of the decade.

Nageswaran, while talking to the media after tabling of the Economic Survey in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, said that the inflation is likely to be “well behaved” in the coming fiscal year barring any unforeseen factors.

According to the Economic Survey prepared by the CEA, RBI projection of retail inflation at 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal is neither too high to deter private consumption, nor too low as to weaken inducement to invest.

The Economic Survey for the current fiscal also state that the Indian economy is expected to hit a minor slow down to 6.5 percent in April 2023 but will continue to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world owing to its ability to better deal with challenges faced by the global economy.

The CEA maintained that the projected growth rate would remain stable as long as oil prices stayed below 100 dollars per barrel. He also pointed out that the quality of public expenditure has gone up and the government has become more transparent with budget deficit numbers, adding that an increased transparency is being witnessed in public procurement.

Read Also: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tables Economic Survey 2023, check highlights here

Nageswaran stressed that credit growth is picking up across sectors, and credit to MSMEs has grown at 30 per cent since January 2022, while NPAs in NBFCs is lower than what it was 15 months ago.

The CEA revealed that India is well ahead of its targets for renewable energy mix.

Earlier on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund in its January update of the World Economic Outlook called India as a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy world economy which, together with China, will account for half of the global growth in 2023, compared to the US and Euro area, who account for just a 10th of the world’s growth.

The IMF report had made almost similar projections to the Economic Survey tabled by the government. It has projected India’s growth to dip slightly from 6.1 percent to 6.8 percent during the current fiscal year ending on March 31. IMF also expects some minor slowdown in the Indian economy in the next fiscal year.

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India a bright spot amid projected decline in global growth: IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India’s growth to dip slightly from 6.1 percent to 6.8 percent during the current fiscal year ending on March 31. IMF also expects some minor slowdown in the Indian economy in the next fiscal year.

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International Monetary Fund

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India’s growth to dip slightly from 6.1 percent to 6.8 percent during the current fiscal year ending on March 31. IMF also expects some minor slowdown in the Indian economy in the next fiscal year.

According to the January update of the World Economic Outlook released by global fiscal body on Tuesday, global growth is projected to fall from a projected 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist and Director, Research Department of the IMF said in a statement that the IMF’s projections for India remain unchanged from its October update as they predict a 6.8 percent growth curve for the Indian economy for the current fiscal and an expected minor dip to 6.1 percent in the next fiscal.

According to the IMF World Economic Outlook, the slowdown is largely driven by external factors, adding that the India’s growth will once again see an upward curve and go up to 6.8 percent in 2024 due to resilient domestic demand despite external factors.

The report expects a rise in growth in developing Asian nations in 2023 and 2024 to 5.3 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, after the slowdown in 2022 to 4.3 percent.

For the first time in the last four decades, China’s growth fell below the global average in the fourth quarter of 2022 which saw a 0.2 percentage point downgrade, settling at 3.0 percent. However, China’s growth is expected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2023 and fall to 4.5 percent in 2024 before settling at below 4 percent over the medium term amid declining business dynamism and slow progress on structural reforms.

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Gourinchas pointed out that emerging market economies and developing economies are already on the way up and have seen a slight rise in growth for the region from 3.9 percent in 2022 to 4 percent in 2023.

He stressed that India and China combined account for almost 50 percent of world growth in 2023, adding that IMF’s positive view on India’s growth curve remains unchanged.

Gourinchas in a blog post termed India as a bright spot which, together with China, will account for half of the global growth in 2023, compared to the US and Euro area, who account for just a 10th of the world’s growth.

Gourinchas also forecasted a much more pronounced slowdown for advanced economies with a decline from 2.7 percent last year to 1.2 percent and 1.4 percent this year and next.

Nine out of 10 advanced economies will likely decelerate, he added.

He predicted that the US’ growth will slow to 1.4 percent in 2023 as Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes work their way through the economy. Euro area conditions are more challenging despite signs of resilience to the energy crisis, a mild winter, and generous fiscal support, he said.

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