Nitesh Tiwari’s Ramayana is heading for a potentially massive opening at the Indian box office, with trade experts predicting that the film could collect more than Rs. 100 crore on its first day.

The film, starring Ranbir Kapoor, Yash and Sai Pallavi, is scheduled for theatrical release on November 5. Produced by Namit Malhotra, the mythological epic has generated significant expectations because of its cast, scale, music and visual effects.

Trade analyst Ramesh Bala has given the most optimistic domestic opening estimate, expecting around Rs. 125 crore gross in India on Day 1. He believes the Hindi version and the film’s premium-format availability could help drive its opening, particularly across the Hindi-speaking markets.

Exhibitor and trade analyst Akshaye Rathi has offered a slightly more conservative estimate, putting the film’s nationwide opening at around Rs. 100 crore or more across languages. He noted that the pre-Diwali release period could influence the opening numbers because audiences are occupied with Diwali preparations and shopping.

Veteran trade analyst Komal Nahta also expects the film to reach the Rs. 100-crore range across languages. His estimate is around Rs. 60 crore for the Hindi version, with the total across all languages potentially reaching Rs. 100 crore or more.

Ramayana vs Dhurandhar 2

One of the key box-office questions is whether Ramayana can surpass the opening-day performance of Dhurandhar 2.

Trade experts are cautious about making that comparison. Bala expects a strong opening but pointed out that Dhurandhar 2 benefited from being a sequel and having substantial pre-release hype.

Nahta believes Ramayana is unlikely to surpass Dhurandhar 2 on Day 1, partly because of the timing of its release. Rathi also expects a strong start but highlighted the pre-Diwali period as a factor that could affect the film’s initial numbers.

These are trade projections, rather than confirmed box-office figures. The actual Day 1 collection will depend on occupancy, spot bookings and audience response after the film’s release.

Why Ramayana has strong box-office potential

The film has several factors working in its favour. Its cast includes Ranbir Kapoor as Ram, Sai Pallavi as Sita and Yash as Ravana, while Nitesh Tiwari is directing the project.

The film also features music by AR Rahman and visual effects from DNEG, giving it a large-scale cinematic presentation. Trade experts believe the combination of mythology, star power and spectacle could attract audiences across different sections of the country.

The familiarity of the Ramayana story is another major factor. Experts believe its cultural and emotional connection with Indian audiences gives the film an advantage that many other releases do not have.

What could happen in China?

China is one of the biggest uncertainties surrounding Ramayana’s overseas prospects.

Nitesh Tiwari’s previous film Dangal had a major run in China, but trade experts have differing views on whether that success can be repeated with Ramayana.

Ramesh Bala has taken a cautious position. He pointed out that Dangal’s success was influenced by several factors and that Ramayana’s mythological subject may not have the same familiarity among Chinese audiences.

Akshaye Rathi, however, sees considerable international potential. He believes that audiences outside India could approach the Ramayana as a fresh story and that effective international marketing could help the film connect with viewers in markets such as China.

Komal Nahta is also optimistic about China and believes the emotional journey of Sita could appeal to Chinese audiences.

The film’s potential in China therefore remains an expectation rather than a confirmed outcome. Its eventual performance will depend on the scale of its release, marketing and audience reception.

Can Ramayana recover its reported budget?

The film has been widely associated with a reported budget of around Rs. 4,000 crore, although trade experts caution that this figure could relate to the two-part project rather than the first instalment alone.

Ramesh Bala suggested that the reported Rs. 4,000 crore figure could cover both parts and said the exact allocation for the first film remains unclear. Komal Nahta estimated the cost of the first part at around Rs. 1,200 crore.

The experts also pointed to non-theatrical revenue, including OTT and satellite rights, as important factors in determining whether the project can recover its investment.

Can Ramayana become India’s biggest film?

The possibility of Ramayana challenging major box-office records is also being discussed ahead of its release.

Bala said the film has the ingredients to compete at the highest level, while Rathi believes it has the potential to become the highest-grossing Indian film worldwide. Nahta, however, has avoided making a definitive prediction before audiences see the film.

The experts also differed on the film’s eventual worldwide theatrical earnings. Bala suggested that it could potentially reach Rs. 1,000-1,500 crore, while Nahta gave an even broader possible range. Rathi did not put a specific figure on it but said the film could potentially reach the top tier of Indian cinema’s global box-office performers.

Ticket prices could affect the opening

Another factor attracting attention is the premium pricing for formats such as IMAX.

Ramesh Bala expects the makers to benefit from higher ticket prices during the initial period but believes prices could come down after the opening week.

Komal Nahta defended the strategy, arguing that the pricing could help a film that has involved such a large reported investment. Audiences who do not want to pay premium prices could instead opt for regular screenings.

Ramayana’s box-office verdict will depend on audience response

While the pre-release projections point towards a major opening, the longer-term performance of Ramayana will ultimately depend on audience reception and word of mouth.

The trade experts broadly agree that the film has the scale, cast and story required for a major theatrical run. However, its actual performance in India, China and other international markets can only be established after its release.

For now, the projections indicate that Ramayana could cross the Rs. 100-crore mark in India on its opening day, while its potential to become one of the biggest Indian films globally remains dependent on how audiences respond to the film.

At least four militants were killed in a gunfight between suspected rival Naga militant groups in Manipur’s Noney district on Wednesday, November 4.

The exchange of fire took place at Taodaijang village in the Khoupum area of the Naga-majority district. According to officials, the cadres involved were suspected to belong to rival Naga militant outfits, including the Zeliangrong United Front-Jenchui (ZUF-J) and the Zeliangrong United Front-Kamson (ZUF-K).

Initial reports indicated that the gunfight continued for several hours, leaving three cadres of ZUF-J and one cadre of ZUF-K dead.

The bodies of the deceased militants were subsequently recovered by local residents.

Residents appeal to armed groups to stop firing

Following the gunfight, local residents, including women, reached the spot in an attempt to prevent further violence between the rival groups.

They also used a public address system to appeal to the armed cadres to stop firing and prevent the situation from escalating further.

Further details about the circumstances surrounding the clash were awaited.

Manipur government reviews security situation

In a separate development, Manipur Chief Minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh directed senior security officials to identify active armed groups suspected of involvement in recent incidents of violence in the state.

The directive excluded groups engaged in peace talks with the state government.

The Chief Minister issued the instructions during a review meeting on the state’s law and order situation on Tuesday night.

He also asked security agencies, including the Army and central paramilitary forces, to submit a detailed report on the involvement of the suspected groups.

The Chief Minister said the state Cabinet could consider declaring such groups unlawful if their involvement in violence against innocent civilians was established.

He also emphasised that necessary action would be initiated against groups continuing to perpetrate violence against civilians.

The Centre has introduced a significant change to the Agnipath recruitment scheme, offering a two-year extension to Agniveers who were earlier expected to leave the armed forces after completing their initial four-year service.

Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General NS Raja Subramani announced the decision on Wednesday following a Union Cabinet meeting. Under the revised arrangement, the 75% of Agniveers who were not initially selected for absorption into the regular armed forces will be offered an additional two-year engagement period.

The development creates another opportunity for these personnel to continue serving in the armed forces beyond their original four-year tenure.

What changes under the revised Agnipath scheme?

Under the original Agnipath framework, Agniveers were recruited for a four-year service period, including training. At the end of this tenure, up to 25% of each batch could be selected for permanent enrolment into the regular armed forces, while the remaining 75% were expected to return to civilian life.

The revised arrangement introduces an additional two-year engagement for the latter group. This means their potential service period could increase from four to six years.

The extension also creates another opportunity for Agniveers to seek enrolment into the regular armed forces after completing the additional two years.

What happens after the additional two years?

According to General NS Raja Subramani, Agniveers completing the extended engagement period and willing to continue serving will be considered for enrolment in the regular armed forces.

Their selection will be based on objective criteria.

This creates an additional pathway for those who are not absorbed into the regular forces after their initial four-year tenure. However, the revised arrangement does not mean that every Agniveer will automatically receive permanent enrolment.

Why has the decision been taken now?

The announcement comes as the first batch of Agniveers recruited under the scheme approaches the completion of its initial four-year service period.

The Agnipath scheme was introduced on June 14, 2022, to recruit personnel into the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force for a fixed four-year engagement.

General Raja Subramani said the scheme had been undergoing periodic reviews, with the performance of Agniveers being continuously evaluated. He also indicated that feedback on their performance had been very positive.

The latest Cabinet decision creates an additional route for retaining personnel beyond the initial engagement period.

What was the original Agnipath arrangement?

Under the original framework, the armed forces could retain up to 25% of Agniveers in the regular cadre after their four-year service period, subject to selection.

The remaining 75% were to complete their engagement and transition to civilian life.

With the latest revision, this group will receive an additional two-year engagement opportunity before being considered for enrolment into the regular armed forces under the prescribed selection criteria.

The change therefore modifies the earlier arrangement by providing an additional opportunity for Agniveers to continue their military careers.