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Demonetisation hovers like a dark cloud

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Demonetisation hovers like a dark cloud

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Economic Survey points to the short-term costs which are visible and tangible

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

In President Pranab Mukherjee’s address to the Joint Session of Parliament as the Budget Session kicked off on Tuesday, there was a passing reference to demonetisation, in Para 55, of the more-than-an-hour long and 80-paragraph speech. It seemed as though the government (the President’s address is written by the government) did not want to linger too long on the unpleasant fact of demonetisation.

But an hour after President Mukherjee’s speech and after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley laid the Economic Survey 2016-17 on the table of Lok Sabha, Chief Economic Advisor in the Ministry of Finance, Arvind Subramanian, took the floor at the National Media Centre, to explain to the media the salient points of the survey, which is the official assessment of the state of the economy of the year gone by.

The survey had to take the bulls by the horn as it were, and in this case the bull and its horns happen to be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s November 8, 2016 announcement declaring that Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes will cease to be legal tender. Problems followed, and though the ordinary people bore with the acute inconvenience it had created which emboldened the Prime Minister to believe that the people will back his unpopular decision, the Economic Survey could not look away from the issue staring in the face of the economy.

While describing demonetisation in laudatory terms as “a radical governance-cum-social engineering measure”, and seeking to assess the short-term costs and long-term benefits of the move, the survey could not avoid noting that “the costs have nonetheless been real and significant” ; it also said, “The magnitudes of short-term costs remain uncertain, as do the timing and extent of long-term benefits.”

The survey also emphasises what needs to be done to cushion the hard-landing of demonetisation: “…remonetising the economy expeditiously by supplying as much cash as necessary, especially in lower denomination notes; and complementing demonetisation with more incentive-compatible actions such as bringing land and real estate into the GST, reducing taxes and stamp-duties, and ensuring that demonetisation does not lead to over-zealous tax administration.”

But then he places demonetisation as one of the many measures, including the passing of the GST Bill, the setting up of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in the Reserve Bank of India to calibrate interest rates and to manage inflation, giving Aadhaar a legal basis by making the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIAI) a statutory body. The survey does not give demonetisation the status of a game-changer in itself.

In Chapter 3 of the survey, enticingly entitled “Demonetisation: To Deify or Demonise?” it offers a closer look at the decision. It says that “India’s demonetisation is unprecedented in international economic history” because “all other sudden demonetisations have occurred in the context of hyperinflation, wars, political upheavals, or other extreme circumstances. But the Indian economy had been growing at the fastest clip in the world on the back of stable macroeconomics and an impressive set of reforms. In such normal circumstances, demonetisations – such as the one announced recently in Europe – tend to be phased in gradually.”

And the survey tries to explain, if not explain away, demonetisation, in another way: “In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), advanced economies have used monetary policy t stimulate growth, stretching its use to domains heretofore considered heretical such as negative interest rate policies and “helicopter drops” of money. In fact, India has given a whole new expression to unconventional monetary policy, with the difference that whereas advanced economies have focused on expanding money supply, India’s demonetisation has reduced it. This policy could be described as “reverse helicopter drop”, or perhaps more accurately a “helicopter hoover”.

It can be seen that the survey tries hard to understand and explain the inexplicable demonetisation move, and it has come to the hard conclusion that this would bring down the growth rate by one-fourth or one-half percentage points.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

PM Modi accuses Congress of anti-Sikh bias over Rahul Gandhi’s ‘traitor’ remark

Prime Minister Narendra Modi accused Rahul Gandhi of targeting BJP MP Ravneet Singh Bittu with a ‘gaddar’ remark because of his Sikh identity while speaking in the Rajya Sabha.

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PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday launched a sharp attack on Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi, alleging that his “traitor” remark against BJP MP Ravneet Singh Bittu reflected the Congress party’s animosity towards the Sikh community.

The Prime Minister made the remarks in the Rajya Sabha while replying to the motion of thanks on the President’s address. Referring to an incident in the Parliament complex a day earlier, Modi said Gandhi’s comment had crossed all limits of political decency.

The controversy stems from a protest by suspended Opposition MPs, during which Ravneet Singh Bittu — a former Congress leader who joined the BJP ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections — allegedly made a remark suggesting the protesters were behaving as if they had won a war.

In response, Rahul Gandhi was heard saying, “A traitor is walking by, look at his face,” before approaching Bittu and extending his hand. Gandhi then reportedly added, “Hello, brother. My traitor friend. Don’t worry, you will come back.”

Bittu refused to shake hands with the Congress leader and instead described him as an “enemy of the country” before walking away from the scene.

While the Congress later clarified that Gandhi’s remark was aimed at Bittu for leaving the party, the BJP seized upon the comment, calling it an insult to the Sikh community. Protests were subsequently held by members of the Sikh community outside the Congress headquarters and at other locations.

Addressing the House, Prime Minister Modi said that many leaders had quit the Congress in the past and that the party itself had split multiple times, but none of those leaders had been labelled a traitor. “He called this MP a traitor because he is Sikh,” the Prime Minister alleged, as treasury bench members raised slogans condemning the remark.

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Manipur Assembly to meet at 4 pm today, floor test likely under new chief minister

The Manipur Legislative Assembly will convene at 4 pm today, with a floor test likely as the new chief minister seeks to prove his majority in the House.

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Manipur assembly

The Manipur Legislative Assembly will convene at 4 pm on Thursday in Imphal, a day after Yumnam Khemchand Singh was sworn in as the chief minister. A floor test is likely to be held on the first day of the session to establish the majority of the newly formed government.

In the 60-member Assembly, the BJP holds 37 seats, while its ally National People’s Party has six members, giving the ruling combine a clear majority in the House.

Singh chaired the first Cabinet meeting of his government late Wednesday evening, shortly after taking oath as the 13th chief minister of Manipur. The meeting marked the formal start of administrative functioning under the new Council of Ministers.

His appointment came nearly a year after the resignation of former chief minister N Biren Singh, who stepped down following months of ethnic violence between the Meitei and Kuki communities in the state.

After taking oath, Singh thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi and said he would work with “utmost diligence to advance development and prosperity in Manipur,” aligning the state’s efforts with the vision of Viksit Bharat.

He said the government’s focus would be on inclusive economic growth while preserving Manipur’s cultural heritage, adding that he would discharge his responsibilities with sincerity and dedication, mindful of the trust placed in him.

The summoning of the 12th Manipur Legislative Assembly by Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla, along with the first Cabinet meeting, signals the resumption of legislative and administrative processes in the state, officially bringing President’s rule to an end.

The sixth session of the 12th Manipur Legislative Assembly was last held from July 31 to August 12, 2024.

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India News

PM Modi skips Lok Sabha reply as protests force repeated adjournments

PM Modi did not deliver his Lok Sabha reply today after sustained Opposition protests led to repeated adjournments over a dispute involving Rahul Gandhi’s proposed speech.

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PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not deliver his scheduled reply to the Motion of Thanks on the President’s address in the Lok Sabha today after sustained Opposition protests led to multiple adjournments of the House.

The disruption followed an escalation of tensions linked to Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s proposed speech and the suspension of eight Opposition MPs a day earlier. The situation worsened after remarks made by BJP MP Nishikant Dubey during the proceedings.

Dispute over references to books sparks fresh ruckus

The controversy intensified when Nishikant Dubey responded to Rahul Gandhi’s demand to speak on national security and references to the unpublished memoirs of former Army chief General MM Naravane. Dubey said that while Gandhi wanted to quote from an unpublished book, he himself had brought several books that, according to him, made claims about the Gandhi family.

As Dubey began listing these books and their contents, strong protests erupted from Opposition members. Krishna Prasad Tenneti, who was presiding over the House at the time, cited Rule 349, which restricts members from reading out books, newspapers, or letters unless directly related to parliamentary business. Despite repeated warnings, the matter remained unresolved, leading to another adjournment.

Rahul Gandhi accuses government of silencing debate

Earlier in the day, Rahul Gandhi alleged that he was being prevented from speaking on an issue of national importance. He claimed the government was uncomfortable with references to General Naravane’s memoirs, which he said discussed the handling of the 2020 China border crisis.

In a social media post, Gandhi said he intended to present the Prime Minister with a book authored by the former Army chief, adding that some cabinet ministers had even questioned the existence of the book. He also wrote to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla after the suspension of eight Opposition MPs, alleging that parliamentary debate was being curtailed.

After it became clear that the Prime Minister would not speak in the House today, Gandhi posted that PM Modi had avoided Parliament because he was “scared” to face the truth. Congress MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra echoed the allegation, claiming the Prime Minister was unwilling to enter the House.

Proceedings disrupted throughout the day

Lok Sabha proceedings were first adjourned until 2 pm amid loud protests over the issue linked to Naravane’s memoirs. Even after the House reconvened, disruptions continued, preventing normal business from resuming.

Later, Congress MPs staged a demonstration outside the Parliament complex, demanding that Rahul Gandhi be allowed to speak on the President’s address.

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