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Demonetisation hovers like a dark cloud

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Demonetisation hovers like a dark cloud

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Economic Survey points to the short-term costs which are visible and tangible

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

In President Pranab Mukherjee’s address to the Joint Session of Parliament as the Budget Session kicked off on Tuesday, there was a passing reference to demonetisation, in Para 55, of the more-than-an-hour long and 80-paragraph speech. It seemed as though the government (the President’s address is written by the government) did not want to linger too long on the unpleasant fact of demonetisation.

But an hour after President Mukherjee’s speech and after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley laid the Economic Survey 2016-17 on the table of Lok Sabha, Chief Economic Advisor in the Ministry of Finance, Arvind Subramanian, took the floor at the National Media Centre, to explain to the media the salient points of the survey, which is the official assessment of the state of the economy of the year gone by.

The survey had to take the bulls by the horn as it were, and in this case the bull and its horns happen to be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s November 8, 2016 announcement declaring that Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes will cease to be legal tender. Problems followed, and though the ordinary people bore with the acute inconvenience it had created which emboldened the Prime Minister to believe that the people will back his unpopular decision, the Economic Survey could not look away from the issue staring in the face of the economy.

While describing demonetisation in laudatory terms as “a radical governance-cum-social engineering measure”, and seeking to assess the short-term costs and long-term benefits of the move, the survey could not avoid noting that “the costs have nonetheless been real and significant” ; it also said, “The magnitudes of short-term costs remain uncertain, as do the timing and extent of long-term benefits.”

The survey also emphasises what needs to be done to cushion the hard-landing of demonetisation: “…remonetising the economy expeditiously by supplying as much cash as necessary, especially in lower denomination notes; and complementing demonetisation with more incentive-compatible actions such as bringing land and real estate into the GST, reducing taxes and stamp-duties, and ensuring that demonetisation does not lead to over-zealous tax administration.”

But then he places demonetisation as one of the many measures, including the passing of the GST Bill, the setting up of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in the Reserve Bank of India to calibrate interest rates and to manage inflation, giving Aadhaar a legal basis by making the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIAI) a statutory body. The survey does not give demonetisation the status of a game-changer in itself.

In Chapter 3 of the survey, enticingly entitled “Demonetisation: To Deify or Demonise?” it offers a closer look at the decision. It says that “India’s demonetisation is unprecedented in international economic history” because “all other sudden demonetisations have occurred in the context of hyperinflation, wars, political upheavals, or other extreme circumstances. But the Indian economy had been growing at the fastest clip in the world on the back of stable macroeconomics and an impressive set of reforms. In such normal circumstances, demonetisations – such as the one announced recently in Europe – tend to be phased in gradually.”

And the survey tries to explain, if not explain away, demonetisation, in another way: “In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), advanced economies have used monetary policy t stimulate growth, stretching its use to domains heretofore considered heretical such as negative interest rate policies and “helicopter drops” of money. In fact, India has given a whole new expression to unconventional monetary policy, with the difference that whereas advanced economies have focused on expanding money supply, India’s demonetisation has reduced it. This policy could be described as “reverse helicopter drop”, or perhaps more accurately a “helicopter hoover”.

It can be seen that the survey tries hard to understand and explain the inexplicable demonetisation move, and it has come to the hard conclusion that this would bring down the growth rate by one-fourth or one-half percentage points.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Parliament winter session: Government lists 15 bills, including Waqf bill

The session will kick off on November 25 and conclude on December 20.

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The government has listed five new ones and one to amend the contentious Waqf law out of 15 bills for the winter session of Parliament. The session will kick off on November 25 and conclude on December 20.

The government has introduced five new bills, including the Coastal Shipping Bill, 2024, which aims to promote coasting trade and increase the participation of Indian-flagged vessels owned and operated by Indian citizens for both national security and commercial purposes.

Another significant legislation that will be introduced by the government is the Indian Ports Bill, 2024. This bill is designed to implement measures for the conservation of ports, enhance security, and manage pollution, ensuring compliance with India’s international obligations and statutory requirements.

Additionally, the government plans to introduce the Merchant Shipping Bill, 2024, which aims to meet India’s obligations under maritime treaties and support the development of Indian shipping while ensuring the efficient operation of the Indian mercantile marine in a way that serves national interests.

Pending legislation includes the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, which is awaiting consideration and passage after the joint committee of both Houses submits its report to the Lok Sabha. The committee is expected to report by the end of the first week of the winter session.

Currently, there are eight bills, including the Waqf (Amendment) Bill and the Mussalman Wakf (Repeal) Bill, pending in the Lok Sabha, while two additional bills are in the Rajya Sabha.

Furthermore, the government has also listed the Punjab Courts (Amendment) Bill for introduction, consideration, and passage, which seeks to increase the pecuniary appellate jurisdiction of Delhi district courts from Rs 3 lakh to Rs 20 lakh.

The Merchant Shipping Bill, along with the Coastal Shipping Bill and the Indian Ports Bill, is slated for introduction and eventual passage.

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International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant against Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu over war crimes

The court accused Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant of crimes against humanity, including murder, persecution, inhumane acts, and the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare.

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International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant against Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu over war crimes

The International Criminal Court (ICC) today issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The court accused Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant of crimes against humanity, including murder, persecution, inhumane acts, and the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare. The leaders allegedly restricted essential supplies such as food, water, and medical aid to civilians in Gaza, resulting in severe humanitarian crises and deaths, including among children.

Last year in October, Israel had launched attacks on Gaza in retaliation for the surprise attack by Hamas. The Israel-Hamas war has led to the death of thousands of civilians, while lakhs have been displaced. The major infrastructures in Gaza, including hospitals and schools, were also destroyed as Israel vowed to wipe out Hamas.

The International Criminal Court stated that it found reasonable grounds to believe the accused intentionally targeted civilians and limited medical supplies, forcing unsafe medical procedures, which caused immense suffering. This ruling was based on the findings from at least October 8, 2023 until at least May 20, 2024.

The court remarked that it has assessed that there are reasonable grounds to believe that PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant bear criminal responsibility as civilian superiors for the war crime of intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population of Gaza.

Furthermore, it also noted that the lack of food, water, electricity and fuel, and medical supplies created conditions of life calculated to bring about the destruction of part of the civilian population in Gaza, leading to death of civilians, including children due to malnutrition and dehydration.

Additionally, the International Criminal Court dismissed two challenges by Israel against its jurisdiction in the situation in the State of Palestine.

Notably, Israel had contested the ICC’s jurisdiction, claiming it could not be exercised without Israel’s consent. Nonetheless, the Chamber ruled that the Court has jurisdiction based on Palestine’s territorial scope, including Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. It further noted that Israel’s objections were premature, as jurisdictional challenges under the Rome Statute can only be made after an arrest warrant is issued.

Reportedly, Israel had also requested a fresh notification regarding the investigation, started in 2021. Denying the request, the court stated that Israel had earlier declined to request a deferral, making additional notifications unnecessary.

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Yogi Adityanath accords tax-free status to Sabarmati Report film in Uttar Pradesh

Earlier, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have also praised this film.

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Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on Thursday accorded a tax-free status to ‘The Sabarmati Report’ film, based on the train burning incident at Godhra in Gujarat in 2002, in the state.

The announcement was made after Chief Minister Adityanath attended the screening of Vikrant Massey and Raashii Khanna-starrer ‘The Sabarmati Report’ in Lucknow with the film’s cast.  

Speaking to reporters, actor Vikrant Massey thanked the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister for making ‘The Sabarmati Report’ film tax-free in the state. “I want to thank Yogi Adityanath ji. This is an important film and I appeal to everyone to go and watch this film,” he said.

Chief Minister Adityanath along with many of his cabinet colleagues watched the film ‘The Sabarmati Report’ under a special screening at a cinema hall in the capital, said a spokesperson of the state government.

Several people associated with the film unit were also present on the occasion. Later the chief minister announced to make this film tax-free in UP.

The BJP-ruled states have been praising the makers of The Sabarmati Report, claiming the team has tried to bring out this truth in front of the people of the country through the film.

The saffron party is appealing to people to watch this film and try to get closer to the truth of Godhra.

Uttar Pradesh becomes the sixth BJP-ruled state after Haryana, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat to declare lead actors Vikrant Massey and Raashii Khanna’s film tax-free.

Adityanath said along with identifying the faces of those who are conspiring against the country for political gains, there is also a need to expose them. The film team has discharged its responsibilities to expose the truth, he said, adding an attempt has been made to bring the real truth in front of the country in a big way through the film.

The Sabarmati Report is said to be based on the incident of setting fire to a train full of ‘karsevaks’ in Godhra on February 27, 2002, killing 90 devotees. After this incident, communal riots broke out in Gujarat. Earlier, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have also praised this film.

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