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Demonetisation hovers like a dark cloud

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Demonetisation hovers like a dark cloud

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Economic Survey points to the short-term costs which are visible and tangible

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

In President Pranab Mukherjee’s address to the Joint Session of Parliament as the Budget Session kicked off on Tuesday, there was a passing reference to demonetisation, in Para 55, of the more-than-an-hour long and 80-paragraph speech. It seemed as though the government (the President’s address is written by the government) did not want to linger too long on the unpleasant fact of demonetisation.

But an hour after President Mukherjee’s speech and after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley laid the Economic Survey 2016-17 on the table of Lok Sabha, Chief Economic Advisor in the Ministry of Finance, Arvind Subramanian, took the floor at the National Media Centre, to explain to the media the salient points of the survey, which is the official assessment of the state of the economy of the year gone by.

The survey had to take the bulls by the horn as it were, and in this case the bull and its horns happen to be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s November 8, 2016 announcement declaring that Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes will cease to be legal tender. Problems followed, and though the ordinary people bore with the acute inconvenience it had created which emboldened the Prime Minister to believe that the people will back his unpopular decision, the Economic Survey could not look away from the issue staring in the face of the economy.

While describing demonetisation in laudatory terms as “a radical governance-cum-social engineering measure”, and seeking to assess the short-term costs and long-term benefits of the move, the survey could not avoid noting that “the costs have nonetheless been real and significant” ; it also said, “The magnitudes of short-term costs remain uncertain, as do the timing and extent of long-term benefits.”

The survey also emphasises what needs to be done to cushion the hard-landing of demonetisation: “…remonetising the economy expeditiously by supplying as much cash as necessary, especially in lower denomination notes; and complementing demonetisation with more incentive-compatible actions such as bringing land and real estate into the GST, reducing taxes and stamp-duties, and ensuring that demonetisation does not lead to over-zealous tax administration.”

But then he places demonetisation as one of the many measures, including the passing of the GST Bill, the setting up of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in the Reserve Bank of India to calibrate interest rates and to manage inflation, giving Aadhaar a legal basis by making the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIAI) a statutory body. The survey does not give demonetisation the status of a game-changer in itself.

In Chapter 3 of the survey, enticingly entitled “Demonetisation: To Deify or Demonise?” it offers a closer look at the decision. It says that “India’s demonetisation is unprecedented in international economic history” because “all other sudden demonetisations have occurred in the context of hyperinflation, wars, political upheavals, or other extreme circumstances. But the Indian economy had been growing at the fastest clip in the world on the back of stable macroeconomics and an impressive set of reforms. In such normal circumstances, demonetisations – such as the one announced recently in Europe – tend to be phased in gradually.”

And the survey tries to explain, if not explain away, demonetisation, in another way: “In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), advanced economies have used monetary policy t stimulate growth, stretching its use to domains heretofore considered heretical such as negative interest rate policies and “helicopter drops” of money. In fact, India has given a whole new expression to unconventional monetary policy, with the difference that whereas advanced economies have focused on expanding money supply, India’s demonetisation has reduced it. This policy could be described as “reverse helicopter drop”, or perhaps more accurately a “helicopter hoover”.

It can be seen that the survey tries hard to understand and explain the inexplicable demonetisation move, and it has come to the hard conclusion that this would bring down the growth rate by one-fourth or one-half percentage points.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Congress, BJP attack Bhagwant Mann over remarks on Punjab blasts

Congress and BJP have jointly criticised Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann after he linked recent blasts near defence sites to political motives, triggering a controversy.

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Bhagwant Mann

A political row has erupted in Punjab after Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann linked recent blast incidents to political motives, drawing sharp criticism from both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The controversy follows two low-intensity explosions reported within a short span of time — one near the Border Security Force (BSF) headquarters in Jalandhar and another close to an army cantonment area in Amritsar. The incidents raised concerns over security, particularly given the sensitive nature of the locations.

In response, Mann suggested that the blasts could be part of a larger political strategy. His remarks triggered a strong backlash, with opposition parties accusing him of politicising a serious security issue.

Leaders from the Congress criticised the Chief Minister’s statement, calling it inappropriate and alleging that such comments undermine the gravity of the situation. They stressed that matters related to national security should be handled with caution and responsibility.

The BJP also joined the criticism, questioning the basis of Mann’s claims and urging the state government to focus on investigation and law enforcement instead of making political allegations.

The developments have led to an unusual moment where both Congress and BJP appear aligned in their criticism of the Aam Aadmi Party-led government in the state.

Meanwhile, the blasts themselves have intensified concerns over safety in border regions, with authorities continuing their investigation into the incidents. No casualties were reported, but the proximity to defence establishments has made the issue particularly sensitive.

The episode has further escalated political tensions in the state, with security and accountability emerging as key points of debate.

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India News

Himanta Biswa Sarma resigns as Assam chief minister, oath ceremony likely after May 11

Himanta Biswa Sarma resigns as Assam Chief Minister after BJP-led NDA’s victory. He will continue as caretaker CM until the new government is sworn in after May 11.

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Himanta sharma

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma resigned from his post on Wednesday, paving the way for the formation of a new government after the BJP-led NDA secured a decisive victory in the 2026 Assembly elections.

Sarma submitted his resignation to Governor Lakshman Prasad Acharya at Lok Bhawan in Guwahati. The Governor accepted the resignation and asked him to continue as the caretaker Chief Minister until the new government takes charge.

The resignation comes after the NDA’s strong electoral performance, where the alliance won a clear majority in the 126-member Assembly, ensuring its return to power for another term.

Oath ceremony expected after May 11

Speaking to reporters after submitting his resignation, Sarma said the swearing-in ceremony for the new government is likely to be held after May 11.

He indicated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited to attend the ceremony but is unavailable until May 11, which has influenced the tentative schedule.

Decision on next chief minister soon

Sources suggest that central observers, including senior BJP leaders, are expected to arrive shortly to oversee the selection of the legislature party leader. The newly elected MLAs will then decide on the next Chief Minister.

Despite the formal resignation, party sources indicate that Sarma is likely to continue in the role for another term, given the BJP’s strong mandate in the state.

The move marks the beginning of the government formation process in Assam following the election results declared earlier this week.

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Rahul Gandhi and Vijay alliance took shape through backchannel talks, early signals from Congress leaders

Congress outreach and political calculations led to Rahul Gandhi and Vijay coming together after the Tamil Nadu 2026 election results.

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The coming together of Rahul Gandhi and actor-politician Vijay in Tamil Nadu after the 2026 Assembly elections was not sudden, but the result of behind-the-scenes political manoeuvring and early signals within the Congress.

According to media reports, some leaders in the Tamil Nadu Congress had already sensed the scale of Vijay’s surge during the campaign, anticipating what was later described as a “wave” in favour of his party.

After the results, where Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerged as the single largest party but fell short of a majority, communication channels between the Congress leadership and Vijay quickly became active.

A key moment in this evolving political equation was a phone call from Rahul Gandhi to Vijay, congratulating him on the party’s strong performance. The conversation was seen as more than a courtesy, signalling the possibility of cooperation at a time when government formation required additional support.

Reports indicate that discussions within Congress weighed the political benefits of supporting Vijay, especially given the shifting dynamics in the state where traditional dominance by major Dravidian parties has been challenged.

With TVK needing allies to cross the majority mark, Congress emerged as a potential partner, leading to a broader political realignment in the state. This development also triggered tensions within opposition alliances, highlighting the strategic importance of the decision.

The evolving partnership reflects a mix of electoral pragmatism and changing voter sentiment, particularly the growing influence of younger voters, which leaders acknowledged as a key factor in the election outcome.

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