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Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

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Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

GDP growth projection of 7-7.5 percent probably seems too optimistic

The Economic Survey 2018 projects 7-7.5 per cent growth rate in 2018-19, up from 6.75 per cent in the current fiscal, making India once again the world’s fastest growing major economy.

The forecast, that comes within an environment of slow and jobless growth, says the economy will grow on the back of major reforms which would be strengthened further in the next financial year.

“A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 per cent this fiscal and will rise to 7 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, thereby re- instating India as the world’s fastest growing major economy,” it says.

The survey points out that India can be rated as among the best performing economies in the world as the average growth during last three years is around 4 percentage points higher than global growth and nearly 3 percentage points higher than that of emerging market and developing economies.

It says that the GDP growth has averaged 7.3 per cent from 2014-15 to 2017-18, which is the highest among the major economies of the world.

“That this growth has been achieved in a milieu of lower inflation, improved current account balance and notable reduction in the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio makes it all the more creditable,” it says.

The survey says that after the preliminary analysis of Goods and Services Tax (GST) data, there has been a 50 per cent jump in the number of indirect taxpayers and a huge increase in voluntary registrations, particularly by small enterprises. The number of individual income tax filers increased by over 18 lakh since November 2016 the month when demonetisation was implemented.

As for the optimistic projections of growth rate, if the survey had taken into consideration of the sharply spiking fuel prices, then, possibly, a change of heart would have occurred. On the other hand, since petroleum is still beyond the scope of GST, higher collection from taxes remains a possibility despite shooting oil prices. That might hot, however, translate into higher GDP growth.

What will be difficult to achieve in this scenario would be fiscal discipline and the deficit could well travel beyond control. And, when the resource pool for buying oil grows, even a small appreciation in the value of the Rupee could have major adverse effects at home.

Much of the survey’s optimism stems from an expectation of higher export. That may be so, but if the Rupee has appreciated against the accepted basket of foreign currencies, it will cancel out the positivity and we could well be standing pretty much where we started.

Before going any further, we need to read the substance of the survey which states that growth is on track, revenue collection is on the rise – it has to be remembered that this is the first survey and first Union Budget after the implementation of GST – and fiscal deficit was under reasonable check.

The survey also sees growth in private investment, the hallmark of any growing economy in the next fiscal while also adding flesh to government initiatives in the education and agriculture.

Apart from the fact that this survey’s forecast runs in the face of the government’s own advance GDP data as was available this month – that expected the economy to grow at a four-year low of 6.5 percent in the current fiscal, mainly due to the poor performance of agriculture and manufacturing sector, against last fiscal’s 7.1 percent – it is possibly avoiding this confrontation, especially with jumping fuel prices barking at its feet.

The fiscal deficit target of the government for this fiscal was 3.2 percent of GDP against 3.5 percent in 2016-17, but it is well known that with the elections progressing and things not looking too good, finance minister Arun Jaitley may be forced to take a populist stance, in which case the fiscal deficit target can only be relaxed, with discipline given a go-by.

The projections here, therefore, would taste better with a pinch of salt.

India News

Cabinet approves Rs 1,000 crore venture capital fund for space sector startups

Established as part of the 2020 space sector reforms, IN-SPACe was created by the Government of India to facilitate private sector participation in space activities.

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The Union Cabinet on Thursday approved setting up of a Rs 1,000 crore venture capital fund to help space sector startups, Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said.

The fund is expected to support approximately 40 startups in the sector and will accelerate the private space industry’s growth.

It will also push advancements in space technology and strengthen India’s leadership through private-sector participation, the government said.

The capital infusion will also create a multiplier effect by attracting additional funding for later-stage development.

In a post on X, PM Modi said: “Excellent news for the space sector! The Cabinet’s decision on establishing a Venture Capital Fund dedicated to the space sector will have a phenomenal impact on the youth. It will give opportunities to several innovative minds and add momentum to our space programme.”

Union Home Minister Amit Shah said PM Modi has infused new force into the growth of the Indian space sector by deciding to set up a Rs 1,000 crore venture capital fund in the Union Cabinet.

The fund, under the aegis of IN-SPACe, will fortify Bharat’s leadership in the space sector by creating a multiplier effect by attracting new investments while spurring the growth of the existing companies, he said in a post on X.

As per the government’s plan, the proposed Rs 1,000 crore venture capital fund is expected to have a deployment period of up to five years from the start of the fund operations.

It is anticipated that the average deployment amount could range from Rs 150-250 crore per year, depending on the investment opportunities and fund requirements.

The proposed break-up for the Rs 1,000 crore fund’s deployment on a financial year basis such as Rs 150 crore for 2025-26, Rs 250 crore for each financial year starting from 2026 till 2029, and Rs 100 crore for 2029-30.

Established as part of the 2020 space sector reforms, IN-SPACe was created by the Government of India to facilitate private sector participation in space activities.

The proposed Rs1,000 crore venture capital fund under IN-SPACe aims to support the growth of India’s space economy, which is currently valued at S8.4 billion, with a target to reach $44 billion by 2033.

This initiative is essential to address the critical need for risk capital, given the hesitation of traditional lenders to fund startups in the high-tech space sector.

Furthermore, as nearly 250 space startups have emerged across the value chain, timely financial support is crucial to ensure their growth and prevent talent loss overseas. The proposed government-backed fund is expected to enhance investor confidence, attract private capital, and demonstrate the government’s commitment to advancing space reforms.

Additionally, it will function as an “Alternative Investment Fund” under SEBI regulations, providing early-stage equity to startups and enabling them to scale for further private equity investments.

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Jammu and Kashmir CM Omar Abdullah meets PM Modi in Delhi

Since the reorganization of Jammu and Kashmir into a Union Territory in 2019, the police force has been under the jurisdiction of the Union Home Ministry.

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Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday during his first visit to the national capital since taking office recently.

He is expected to submit a resolution passed by his Cabinet, calling for the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood.

Following an outstanding victory in the recent Assembly elections in the Union Territory, where Abdullah’s National Conference secured 42 out of the 90 Assembly seats, this marks a significant political development.

During its first Cabinet meeting, the new government passed a resolution urging the central government to restore Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood, which was subsequently approved by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha.

The move towards reinstating statehood is viewed as a critical step in promoting reconciliation, upholding constitutional rights, and preserving the distinctive identity of the region’s inhabitants.

Endorsed by his Cabinet, the Chief Minister now has the authority to engage with the Prime Minister and the central government to advocate for the reinstatement of Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood.

Abdullah also engaged with Union Minister of Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari earlier today, discussing road connectivity projects in Jammu and Kashmir during their meeting at Gadkari’s office, where Abdullah presented a traditional Kashmiri shawl.

On Wednesday, the Chief Minister had a meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah to address various issues concerning the Union Territory, focusing on the prompt restoration of statehood. This meeting was described as a courtesy call, during which Abdullah briefed the Union Home Minister on the situation and the statehood restoration matter.

https://twitter.com/JKNC_/status/1849117896858833290

Abdullah’s visit followed a recent tragic terror attack in the Gangangeer area of Ganderbal district, where seven individuals, including a doctor, were ruthlessly killed by terrorists just three days prior.

Since the reorganization of Jammu and Kashmir into a Union Territory in 2019, the police force has been under the jurisdiction of the Union Home Ministry.

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Cyclone Dana: Over 300 trains cancelled as storm approaches Odisha coast, Kolkata airport halts ops

Ahead of Cyclone Dana’s landfall, all educational institutions, including schools, colleges, and universities, will remain closed in 14 districts of Odisha until October 25.

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As many as 300 trains have been cancelled by Indian Railways on account of cyclonic storm ‘Dana’ which is expected to make landfall on Bhitarkanika National Park and Dhamra Port in Odisha by Friday. The Kolkata airport has suspended all its operations starting at 6 pm on Thursday as a precautionary measure ahead of Cyclone ‘Dana’.

Flight operations at the Biju Patnaik International Airport in Bhubaneswar will remain suspended for 16 hours from Thursday evening given cyclone ‘Dana’.

“Airport operation will be suspended from 5 pm on October 24 to 9 am on October 25 due to cyclone ‘Dana’,” the statement said.

Around 150 trains were cancelled including Howrah-Secunderabad Falaknuma Express, Kamakhya-Yesvantpur AC Express, Howrah-Puri Shatabdi Express, Howrah-Bhubaneswar Shatabdi Express and Howrah-Yesvantpur Express.

Additionally, the East Coast Railways has cancelled 198 trains, including Howrah-Secunderabad, Shalimar Puri, Kamakhya-Bangalore, New Delhi-Bhubaneswar, Kharagpur-Villupuram, Howrah-Bhubaneswar, Shalimar-Hyderbad, Howrah-Puri, and others.

Furthermore, the EMU local train service from Sealdah station and Hasnabad in West Bengal will remain suspended from 8 pm on Thursday to Friday.

The Eastern Railways has also cancelled several express trains, including Patna-Ernakulam Express, Kolkata-Puri, Puri-Kolkata, Dibrugarh-Kanniyakumari, and Bengaluru-Guwahati, among others.

Cyclone ‘Dana’, expected to have wind speeds reaching up to 120 km/h (75 mph), is forecasted to make landfall between Bhitarkanika National Park and Dhamra Port in Odisha by Friday morning as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The cyclonic storm ‘Dana,’ originating over the east-central Bay of Bengal on Wednesday, is likely to bring heavy rainfall to various southern West Bengal districts, including Kolkata, according to the IMD.

An official from the Meteorological Department mentioned that parts of Jharkhand might witness heavy to very heavy rainfall starting Thursday night due to the influence of cyclonic storm ‘Dana’.

In Odisha, Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi confirmed that over 30 percent of the targeted 1 million people have been successfully evacuated to safe places by Wednesday evening in preparation for cyclone Dana. The government aimed to evacuate 1,060,336 individuals from 14 districts by Tuesday.

Ahead of Cyclone Dana’s landfall, all educational institutions, including schools, colleges, and universities, will remain closed in 14 districts of Odisha until October 25.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee declared that she would stay overnight in Nabanna to oversee the landfall and reassured that all necessary measures have been implemented to lessen the storm’s impact.

The Railway Ministry has conducted a review of preparations and directed to minimise traffic disruptions, as mentioned by General Manager of East Coast Railway Parmeshwar Funkwal.

Both the Odisha and West Bengal teams from the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) have been put on standby. Furthermore, rescue and relief teams from the Army, Navy, and Coast Guard are on high alert.

As Cyclone ‘Dana’ is expected to hit the coasts of West Bengal and Odisha on October 24-25, the Indian Coast Guard is on high alert and has positioned its vessels and aircraft strategically to swiftly respond to any maritime emergencies.

@IndiaCoastGuard Region (North East) has initiated preventive measures ahead of Cyclone ‘DANA’, expected to make landfall off #WestBengal and #Odisha between 24-25 Oct 24. Our ships, helicopters, and Dornier aircraft are fully prepared for assistance, rescue and relief operations,” it said in a post on X.

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