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Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

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Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

GDP growth projection of 7-7.5 percent probably seems too optimistic

The Economic Survey 2018 projects 7-7.5 per cent growth rate in 2018-19, up from 6.75 per cent in the current fiscal, making India once again the world’s fastest growing major economy.

The forecast, that comes within an environment of slow and jobless growth, says the economy will grow on the back of major reforms which would be strengthened further in the next financial year.

“A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 per cent this fiscal and will rise to 7 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, thereby re- instating India as the world’s fastest growing major economy,” it says.

The survey points out that India can be rated as among the best performing economies in the world as the average growth during last three years is around 4 percentage points higher than global growth and nearly 3 percentage points higher than that of emerging market and developing economies.

It says that the GDP growth has averaged 7.3 per cent from 2014-15 to 2017-18, which is the highest among the major economies of the world.

“That this growth has been achieved in a milieu of lower inflation, improved current account balance and notable reduction in the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio makes it all the more creditable,” it says.

The survey says that after the preliminary analysis of Goods and Services Tax (GST) data, there has been a 50 per cent jump in the number of indirect taxpayers and a huge increase in voluntary registrations, particularly by small enterprises. The number of individual income tax filers increased by over 18 lakh since November 2016 the month when demonetisation was implemented.

As for the optimistic projections of growth rate, if the survey had taken into consideration of the sharply spiking fuel prices, then, possibly, a change of heart would have occurred. On the other hand, since petroleum is still beyond the scope of GST, higher collection from taxes remains a possibility despite shooting oil prices. That might hot, however, translate into higher GDP growth.

What will be difficult to achieve in this scenario would be fiscal discipline and the deficit could well travel beyond control. And, when the resource pool for buying oil grows, even a small appreciation in the value of the Rupee could have major adverse effects at home.

Much of the survey’s optimism stems from an expectation of higher export. That may be so, but if the Rupee has appreciated against the accepted basket of foreign currencies, it will cancel out the positivity and we could well be standing pretty much where we started.

Before going any further, we need to read the substance of the survey which states that growth is on track, revenue collection is on the rise – it has to be remembered that this is the first survey and first Union Budget after the implementation of GST – and fiscal deficit was under reasonable check.

The survey also sees growth in private investment, the hallmark of any growing economy in the next fiscal while also adding flesh to government initiatives in the education and agriculture.

Apart from the fact that this survey’s forecast runs in the face of the government’s own advance GDP data as was available this month – that expected the economy to grow at a four-year low of 6.5 percent in the current fiscal, mainly due to the poor performance of agriculture and manufacturing sector, against last fiscal’s 7.1 percent – it is possibly avoiding this confrontation, especially with jumping fuel prices barking at its feet.

The fiscal deficit target of the government for this fiscal was 3.2 percent of GDP against 3.5 percent in 2016-17, but it is well known that with the elections progressing and things not looking too good, finance minister Arun Jaitley may be forced to take a populist stance, in which case the fiscal deficit target can only be relaxed, with discipline given a go-by.

The projections here, therefore, would taste better with a pinch of salt.

India News

Election Commission responds after Kejriwal questions BJP’s involvement in home voting process

Upon approval, a polling team, comprising election officials and security personnel, will visit the voter’s residence prior to election day to facilitate the voting process.

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The Election Commission of India (ECI) issued a detailed clarification regarding the home voting facility for the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections scheduled for February 5, 2025. This initiative, designed to enhance accessibility for senior citizens (over 85 years old) and persons with disabilities (PwD), requires eligible voters to submit Form 12D to apply.

Upon approval, a polling team, comprising election officials and security personnel, will visit the voter’s residence prior to election day to facilitate the voting process.

Crucially, the ECI clarified that candidates or their authorized representatives will be permitted to accompany the polling team during these home visits. This provision addresses concerns raised by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal, who had previously highlighted a video showing BJP representatives present during a home voting event.

While the ECI statement did not directly mention Kejriwal or any specific political party, the inclusion of candidate representatives aims to ensure transparency and alleviate concerns about potential irregularities. The commission’s statement emphasizes that the presence of representatives is permissible to uphold fairness and prevent any accusations of undue influence.

The ECI has received a significant number of applications for this facility: 6,447 from senior citizens and 1,058 from PwD voters. To date, 1,271 senior citizens and 120 PwD voters have already cast their ballots through this home voting system. The process itself involves the polling team providing the voter with a ballot paper, overseeing the casting of the vote, and ensuring strict adherence to ECI guidelines regarding confidentiality. To maintain transparency and accountability, the entire process is recorded on video.

The ECI unequivocally stated that participation in the home voting option is entirely voluntary. Voters choosing this method will not be allowed to cast their vote at a regular polling station on election day.

The commission reiterated its commitment to conducting free and fair elections and underscored the importance of this initiative in promoting inclusive participation in the democratic process. Voters facing any difficulties are urged to contact their local Returning Officer (RO) or district Election Officer (DEO), or utilize the central helpline at 1950.

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India News

76th Republic Day: US sends warm wishes to India, says defining relationship of the 21st century

The meeting with his Quad counterparts—External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar of India, Takeshi Iwaya of Japan, and Penny Wong of Australia—focused on enhancing economic opportunities and ensuring peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. It served as a practical demonstration of the commitment to the strategic vision articulated in his Republic Day statement.

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The United States marked India’s 76th Republic Day with effusive praise, highlighting the enduring strength of the world’s largest democracy and the burgeoning partnership between the two nations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a statement released on the occasion, extended warm congratulations to the people of India, emphasizing the significance of the Indian Constitution as the bedrock of this vibrant democracy. He went beyond simple well-wishes, however, painting a picture of a rapidly strengthening bilateral relationship destined for even greater heights.

Rubio’s statement explicitly described the US-India partnership as “the defining relationship of the 21st century,” a bold assertion reflecting the growing strategic alignment and mutual economic interests between the two nations. This statement was not merely ceremonial; it underscored the deepening cooperation across various sectors, from space research to joint efforts within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).

The Quad, comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia, received significant attention in Rubio’s remarks. He emphasized the alliance’s crucial role in promoting a “free, open, and prosperous” Indo-Pacific region, a clear signal of the shared commitment to counterbalancing China’s influence in the region.

This emphasis was reinforced by Rubio’s actions earlier in the week, hosting a crucial meeting of Quad foreign ministers at the US Department of State. This meeting, his first official engagement as Secretary of State, underscored the immediate priority given to strengthening the Quad alliance and its collaborative efforts.

The meeting with his Quad counterparts—External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar of India, Takeshi Iwaya of Japan, and Penny Wong of Australia—focused on enhancing economic opportunities and ensuring peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. It served as a practical demonstration of the commitment to the strategic vision articulated in his Republic Day statement.

Furthermore, Secretary Rubio’s bilateral meeting with External Affairs Minister Jaishankar in Washington D.C. further cemented the strengthening ties between the two countries. The discussions covered a broad range of topics, including regional issues and avenues for further deepening the US-India relationship.

A notable point of discussion, as highlighted in an official press release, included a shared commitment to addressing concerns related to irregular migration, an area of mutual interest requiring collaborative solutions. This commitment, alongside the focus on economic ties, demonstrated the multifaceted nature of the burgeoning partnership, extending beyond strategic security concerns.

India’s own Republic Day celebrations showcased the nation’s unique blend of cultural diversity, unity, and military strength. The grand parade on Kartavya Path served as a vivid display of national pride and the successful integration of diverse elements into a cohesive and powerful nation. The presence of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto as the Chief Guest further underscored India’s growing global influence and its capacity to foster strong relationships with key international partners.

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India News

Ratan Tata featured in Jharkhand’s Republic Day tableau, pic surfaces

By celebrating both its industrial achievements and its vibrant cultural traditions, the tableau offered a nuanced and multifaceted portrayal of Jharkhand, highlighting its progress while deeply respecting its heritage.

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Jharkhand’s Republic Day tableau, a vibrant spectacle of colour and movement, presented a compelling narrative of the state’s journey from its rich heritage to its remarkable progress. The tableau, aptly titled “Swarnim Jharkhand: A Tradition of Heritage and Progress,” served as a powerful visual testament to the state’s multifaceted identity. Central to this narrative was the pivotal role played by the late industrialist, Ratan Tata, whose visionary leadership laid the groundwork for much of Jharkhand’s subsequent development.

The tableau’s design was meticulously crafted to showcase this multifaceted narrative. At its heart was Jamshedpur, India’s first planned industrial city, a legacy of Tata’s pioneering efforts. This iconic city, depicted in vivid detail, served as a powerful symbol of industrial growth and modernization. However, the tableau astutely avoided portraying a solely industrial narrative. It carefully integrated elements celebrating Jharkhand’s cultural richness and its commitment to social progress.

A striking image of two young girls engaged with laptop computers underscored Jharkhand’s significant strides in education. This symbolized the state’s dedication to expanding educational access, particularly for tribal children in both urban and rural areas, representing a crucial investment in the future.

The tableau cleverly juxtaposed this modern image with vibrant representations of traditional art forms. Sohrai and Khobar paintings, meticulously crafted by tribal artists, were displayed prominently, showcasing the enduring legacy of Jharkhand’s artistic heritage. Adding to the spectacle, performers enacted the energetic Chhau dance of Seraikela, a captivating dance form deeply rooted in the state’s cultural identity.

The tableau also subtly highlighted the contributions of women in Jharkhand’s economic landscape, acknowledging their significant role in generating employment and driving economic growth. This balanced depiction of industrial progress and cultural preservation made the tableau a truly comprehensive representation of Jharkhand’s identity.

By celebrating both its industrial achievements and its vibrant cultural traditions, the tableau offered a nuanced and multifaceted portrayal of Jharkhand, highlighting its progress while deeply respecting its heritage.

The inclusion of the Jaduguda uranium plant subtly acknowledged the state’s contribution to India’s nuclear energy program. In essence, the tableau was a powerful and memorable celebration of Jharkhand’s journey, skillfully weaving together its past, present, and future.

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