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Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

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Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

GDP growth projection of 7-7.5 percent probably seems too optimistic

The Economic Survey 2018 projects 7-7.5 per cent growth rate in 2018-19, up from 6.75 per cent in the current fiscal, making India once again the world’s fastest growing major economy.

The forecast, that comes within an environment of slow and jobless growth, says the economy will grow on the back of major reforms which would be strengthened further in the next financial year.

“A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 per cent this fiscal and will rise to 7 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, thereby re- instating India as the world’s fastest growing major economy,” it says.

The survey points out that India can be rated as among the best performing economies in the world as the average growth during last three years is around 4 percentage points higher than global growth and nearly 3 percentage points higher than that of emerging market and developing economies.

It says that the GDP growth has averaged 7.3 per cent from 2014-15 to 2017-18, which is the highest among the major economies of the world.

“That this growth has been achieved in a milieu of lower inflation, improved current account balance and notable reduction in the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio makes it all the more creditable,” it says.

The survey says that after the preliminary analysis of Goods and Services Tax (GST) data, there has been a 50 per cent jump in the number of indirect taxpayers and a huge increase in voluntary registrations, particularly by small enterprises. The number of individual income tax filers increased by over 18 lakh since November 2016 the month when demonetisation was implemented.

As for the optimistic projections of growth rate, if the survey had taken into consideration of the sharply spiking fuel prices, then, possibly, a change of heart would have occurred. On the other hand, since petroleum is still beyond the scope of GST, higher collection from taxes remains a possibility despite shooting oil prices. That might hot, however, translate into higher GDP growth.

What will be difficult to achieve in this scenario would be fiscal discipline and the deficit could well travel beyond control. And, when the resource pool for buying oil grows, even a small appreciation in the value of the Rupee could have major adverse effects at home.

Much of the survey’s optimism stems from an expectation of higher export. That may be so, but if the Rupee has appreciated against the accepted basket of foreign currencies, it will cancel out the positivity and we could well be standing pretty much where we started.

Before going any further, we need to read the substance of the survey which states that growth is on track, revenue collection is on the rise – it has to be remembered that this is the first survey and first Union Budget after the implementation of GST – and fiscal deficit was under reasonable check.

The survey also sees growth in private investment, the hallmark of any growing economy in the next fiscal while also adding flesh to government initiatives in the education and agriculture.

Apart from the fact that this survey’s forecast runs in the face of the government’s own advance GDP data as was available this month – that expected the economy to grow at a four-year low of 6.5 percent in the current fiscal, mainly due to the poor performance of agriculture and manufacturing sector, against last fiscal’s 7.1 percent – it is possibly avoiding this confrontation, especially with jumping fuel prices barking at its feet.

The fiscal deficit target of the government for this fiscal was 3.2 percent of GDP against 3.5 percent in 2016-17, but it is well known that with the elections progressing and things not looking too good, finance minister Arun Jaitley may be forced to take a populist stance, in which case the fiscal deficit target can only be relaxed, with discipline given a go-by.

The projections here, therefore, would taste better with a pinch of salt.

India News

Gold sales shine bright on Akshaya Tritiya despite soaring prices

Akshaya Tritiya 2025 saw a significant jump in gold and silver sales, with festive sentiment overpowering price concerns as India’s jewellery market adapts to changing consumer behaviour.

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Gold price

Gold and silver purchases witnessed a vibrant start across India on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, with festive enthusiasm overcoming the deterrent of high prices. The All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) has projected a 35% rise in value terms for gold sales compared to last year, even though prices are significantly higher.

Regional footfall and demand trends

Retail activity gained early momentum in southern states, as consumers flocked to jewellery stores in the first half of the day. In contrast, northern regions and Maharashtra are expected to see increased activity later, as extreme heat delayed consumer turnout during morning hours.

Gold prices hovered between ₹99,500 and ₹99,900 per 10 grams in various regions — a sharp 37.6% jump from the previous year’s Akshaya Tritiya rate of ₹72,300. Despite the surge, shoppers re-entered the market, reassured by recent price stabilization.

Changing buyer profiles and strategies

GJC Chairman Rajesh Rokde noted that the tradition of buying gold on Akshaya Tritiya, once dominant in the south, is now gaining traction nationwide. “Even younger consumers aged 25 to 40 are actively buying gold and silver,” he said, emphasizing a growing trend among millennial buyers.

Consumers are purchasing a mix of jewellery, coins, and bullion based on their budget and need. A significant portion of buyers are managing high prices through old gold exchanges — accounting for nearly 50% of all transactions, according to PNG Jewellers Chairman Saurabh Gadgil.

“Volume growth may be marginally down by 8–9%, but in value terms, we’re seeing an increase of 20–25%,” Gadgil explained, underlining the resilience of the jewellery market.

Market adapts with innovation

Studded jewellery is reportedly gaining popularity, especially in urban centers, while lab-grown diamonds are carving a niche among new-age buyers, according to industry executives from GSI India and Aukera.

The All India Jewellers and Goldsmith Federation estimated around 12 tonnes of gold sales, worth approximately ₹12,000 crore, and 400 tonnes of silver, valued at ₹4,000 crore — totalling a massive ₹16,000 crore in expected festive turnover.

Long-term demand remains robust

Despite frequent price hikes over the past three years, India’s gold appetite has remained steady. The country continues to import between 700 and 800 tonnes annually, underscoring its status as the world’s largest gold consumer.

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India News

Bangladesh High Court orders release of Hindu leader Chinmoy Krishna Das on bail

The prosecutor’s killing fueled demands to ban ISKCON, which clarified that Das had been expelled from the organization six months prior.

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In a significant development, a Bangladesh High Court bench, comprising Justices Atoar Rahman and Ali Reza, granted bail to Hindu leader Chinmoy Krishna Das on Wednesday, April 30, 2025, five months after his arrest on charges of disrespecting the national flag.

The court’s decision followed a final hearing on an earlier directive questioning why bail should not be granted, marking a turning point in a case that has stirred tensions and drawn international attention.

Das, a former ISKCON leader and spokesperson for the Sammilito Sanatani Jagaran Jote, a Hindu advocacy group, was detained on November 25, 2024, at Dhaka’s Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport.

The charges stemmed from an October 31, 2024, case filed at Chattogram’s Kotwali police station, accusing Das and 18 others of defaming Bangladesh’s national flag. A Chattogram court rejected his initial bail plea, sending him to jail, a decision that sparked widespread protests among his supporters in Dhaka and beyond.

In Chattogram, demonstrations turned deadly when assistant government prosecutor Saiful Islam Alif was killed hours after Das’ bail denial, escalating the controversy.

The case, unfolding less than three months after a student-led uprising toppled former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024, strained Bangladesh-India relations. Hasina’s flight to India and the subsequent interim government led by Muhammad Yunus intensified scrutiny.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs voiced concern on November 26, 2024, highlighting “multiple attacks on Hindus and minorities” in Bangladesh, including arson, looting, and temple desecration. “It’s unfortunate that a religious leader presenting legitimate demands through peaceful means faces charges while perpetrators of violence remain free,” the MEA stated, urging Bangladesh to protect its minority communities.

Das’ legal team, led by former Deputy Attorney General Apurba Kumar Bhattacharya and 11 Supreme Court lawyers, argued the flag disrespect charge was baseless, asserting the item in question was not a national flag.

“This case lacks legal grounding,” Bhattacharya told reporters in January. Earlier bail attempts, including a plea for an advanced hearing on December 11, 2024, were rebuffed, with the court sticking to a January 2, 2025, date. Associates claimed Das faced obstacles securing legal representation due to intimidation from a “politically motivated lawyers’ group.”

The prosecutor’s killing fueled demands to ban ISKCON, which clarified that Das had been expelled from the organization six months prior.

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She felt worthless when Instagram followers fell, says influencer Misha Agrawal’s sister on her suicide

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The family of social media influencer Misha Agarwal announced her heartbreaking passing on April 24, 2025, just days before her 25th birthday, revealing that she died by suicide. In an emotional statement shared on her Instagram account on April 30, her family disclosed that Misha’s battle with depression, triggered by a decline in her social media following, led to her tragic decision.

Misha, who had built her career around Instagram, was fixated on reaching one million followers, a goal so central to her life that it adorned her phone’s lock screen.

Her family’s statement, accompanied by a video of the lock screen, read, “Our beloved sister poured her heart into Instagram, dreaming of a million followers. When her follower count began to drop, she felt worthless and fell into deep depression, often crying, ‘What will I do if my followers decrease? My career is over.’” Despite their efforts to comfort her, Misha’s despair overwhelmed her.

Her family emphasized Misha’s talents beyond social media, noting her LLB degree and preparation for the PCSJ exam, with aspirations of becoming a judge. “We reminded her that Instagram was just one part of her life, not its entirety,” they shared. “We told her a setback online wouldn’t end her world, but she couldn’t escape the pressure.” The statement highlighted the devastating impact of her fixation on digital validation, culminating in her untimely death.

On April 25, Misha’s family first confirmed her passing in a poignant Instagram post: “With profound sorrow, we share the loss of Misha Agarwal. Thank you for the love you showed her. We are grappling with this immense grief. Please keep her spirit alive in your hearts.”

The tragedy underscores the intense pressures faced by influencers in an era where social media metrics often define self-worth. India’s influencer industry, while thriving, increasingly spotlight mental health challenges, with growing calls for support systems. Misha’s story serves as a somber reminder to prioritize well-being over online validation, leaving her family and fans mourning a vibrant soul gone too soon.

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