English हिन्दी
Connect with us

India News

Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

Published

8 years ago

on

Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

GDP growth projection of 7-7.5 percent probably seems too optimistic

The Economic Survey 2018 projects 7-7.5 per cent growth rate in 2018-19, up from 6.75 per cent in the current fiscal, making India once again the world’s fastest growing major economy.

The forecast, that comes within an environment of slow and jobless growth, says the economy will grow on the back of major reforms which would be strengthened further in the next financial year.

“A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 per cent this fiscal and will rise to 7 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, thereby re- instating India as the world’s fastest growing major economy,” it says.

The survey points out that India can be rated as among the best performing economies in the world as the average growth during last three years is around 4 percentage points higher than global growth and nearly 3 percentage points higher than that of emerging market and developing economies.

It says that the GDP growth has averaged 7.3 per cent from 2014-15 to 2017-18, which is the highest among the major economies of the world.

“That this growth has been achieved in a milieu of lower inflation, improved current account balance and notable reduction in the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio makes it all the more creditable,” it says.

The survey says that after the preliminary analysis of Goods and Services Tax (GST) data, there has been a 50 per cent jump in the number of indirect taxpayers and a huge increase in voluntary registrations, particularly by small enterprises. The number of individual income tax filers increased by over 18 lakh since November 2016 the month when demonetisation was implemented.

As for the optimistic projections of growth rate, if the survey had taken into consideration of the sharply spiking fuel prices, then, possibly, a change of heart would have occurred. On the other hand, since petroleum is still beyond the scope of GST, higher collection from taxes remains a possibility despite shooting oil prices. That might hot, however, translate into higher GDP growth.

What will be difficult to achieve in this scenario would be fiscal discipline and the deficit could well travel beyond control. And, when the resource pool for buying oil grows, even a small appreciation in the value of the Rupee could have major adverse effects at home.

Much of the survey’s optimism stems from an expectation of higher export. That may be so, but if the Rupee has appreciated against the accepted basket of foreign currencies, it will cancel out the positivity and we could well be standing pretty much where we started.

Before going any further, we need to read the substance of the survey which states that growth is on track, revenue collection is on the rise – it has to be remembered that this is the first survey and first Union Budget after the implementation of GST – and fiscal deficit was under reasonable check.

The survey also sees growth in private investment, the hallmark of any growing economy in the next fiscal while also adding flesh to government initiatives in the education and agriculture.

Apart from the fact that this survey’s forecast runs in the face of the government’s own advance GDP data as was available this month – that expected the economy to grow at a four-year low of 6.5 percent in the current fiscal, mainly due to the poor performance of agriculture and manufacturing sector, against last fiscal’s 7.1 percent – it is possibly avoiding this confrontation, especially with jumping fuel prices barking at its feet.

The fiscal deficit target of the government for this fiscal was 3.2 percent of GDP against 3.5 percent in 2016-17, but it is well known that with the elections progressing and things not looking too good, finance minister Arun Jaitley may be forced to take a populist stance, in which case the fiscal deficit target can only be relaxed, with discipline given a go-by.

The projections here, therefore, would taste better with a pinch of salt.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

India News

BJP and Shiv Sena reach broad seat-sharing deal ahead of BMC elections

BJP and Shiv Sena are close to finalising seat-sharing for 200 wards ahead of the BMC elections, while opposition parties intensify alliance talks across Maharashtra.

Published

33 mins ago

on

December 27, 2025

By

BJP Shivsena

The BJP and Shiv Sena have almost sealed their seat-sharing arrangement for the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, with an understanding reached on 200 of the total 227 wards in Mumbai, according to sources. The civic body polls are scheduled to be held on January 15.

The agreement was discussed during a late-night meeting of the Mahayuti alliance, which includes the BJP, Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP. The meeting took place at Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s residence in Thane and focused on strategy for several key municipal corporations, including Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli and Navi Mumbai.

Sources said similar meetings are lined up for Mumbai and other civic bodies such as Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Panvel and Mira-Bhayandar, as alliance partners work to finalise ward-level arrangements and campaign planning.

Congress explores new alliances in Mumbai

In Mumbai, Congress leaders are scheduled to meet Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi as the party looks to rebuild its alliance structure after parting ways with the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray faction). The distancing followed Sena (UBT)’s decision to join hands with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena led by Raj Thackeray.

Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut has confirmed that the party will contest the BMC elections in alliance with the MNS and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar. The inclusion of the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) comes after Sharad Pawar rejected a proposal from the Ajit Pawar-led faction that offered limited seat allocation.

Despite the split, sources indicated that discussions may continue, with meetings expected between Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule and her cousin Ajit Pawar to determine future political moves.

Local body strategies take shape across Maharashtra

Meanwhile, MNS chief Raj Thackeray is set to hold a meeting with party leaders at his Shivtirth residence to finalise the party’s election strategy, including campaign issues and candidate selection.

In Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Shiv Sena MLA and minister Sanjay Shirsat will meet BJP leaders, including state ministers Chandrakant Bawankule and Atul Save, to discuss preparations for the civic polls.

Seat-sharing talks are also underway in Mira-Bhayandar, where Shiv Sena leader Pratap Sarnaik and BJP MLA Narendra Mehta are expected to hold discussions. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP, however, is planning to contest the elections independently in the region.

Panvel is set to witness a major opposition meeting involving Sena (UBT), Congress, MNS, NCP (SP), Samajwadi Party and the VBA. The gathering, led by the Peasants and Workers Party, will focus on finalising seat-sharing arrangements and joint election strategies.

Continue Reading

India News

Op Aaghat 3.0: Delhi police arrest over 280 accused ahead of New Year celebrations

Delhi police arrested over 280 accused and detained more than 1,300 individuals under Operation Aaghat 3.0 ahead of New Year, seizing weapons, drugs, liquor and stolen items.

Published

3 hours ago

on

December 27, 2025

By

Op Aaghat 3.0: Delhi police arrest over 280 accused ahead of New Year celebrations

Delhi police carried out a large-scale preventive crackdown across sensitive pockets of the national capital ahead of New Year, arresting hundreds of accused and detaining over a thousand individuals to ensure peaceful celebrations.

The overnight operation, conducted under Operation Aaghat 3.0, focused on crime-prone areas and resulted in major seizures, including illegal weapons, narcotics, illicit liquor, cash and stolen property, according to police officials.

Major arrests and seizures during the drive

As part of the intensified security drive, at least 285 accused were arrested under various legal provisions, including the Arms Act, Excise Act, NDPS Act and Gambling Act. In addition, 504 people were detained as a precautionary measure to prevent any untoward incidents during the festive period.

Police officials said the operation led to the recovery of 21 illegal weapons, including country-made pistols, along with 20 live cartridges and 27 knives. Authorities also seized over 12,000 quarters of illicit liquor, around Rs 2.5 lakh in cash, and nearly 7 kg of cannabis from different locations.

Focus on habitual offenders and vehicle theft

The crackdown also targeted repeat offenders. Under the operation, 116 habitual offenders, referred to by police as “bad characters,” were taken into custody, while 10 property offenders were arrested.

To curb vehicle-related crimes during New Year celebrations, police dismantled auto-lifting networks and arrested five auto-lifters. During the raids, 231 two-wheelers and one four-wheeler were seized.

Action against gambling and stolen goods

In a parallel action against gambling activities, police recovered Rs 2.3 lakh in cash. The operation also led to the recovery of about 210 stolen or lost mobile phones, offering relief to several complainants.

Apart from arrests and detentions, a total of 1,306 individuals were rounded up under preventive measures, officials added, stating that the coordinated effort was aimed at maintaining law and order and ensuring a crime-free New Year in the capital.

Continue Reading

India News

Over 2,000 Maoists surrender under Chhattisgarh rehabilitation policy, says CM Vishnu Deo Sai

Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai said more than 2,000 Maoists have surrendered under the state’s rehabilitation policy, which offers skill training, financial assistance and land support.

Published

3 hours ago

on

December 27, 2025

By

CM surrender Maoist

Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai on Friday said that more than 2,000 Maoists have surrendered so far under the state’s rehabilitation policy, asserting that the government is committed to treating surrendered cadres fairly and supporting their reintegration into society.

Addressing the issue, the Chief Minister said the state government has repeatedly appealed to Maoists to abandon violence and gunfire and return to the mainstream of development. He said the impact of these efforts is now visible, with a large number of cadres laying down arms.

According to Vishnu Deo Sai, the rehabilitation framework focuses on long-term welfare. Surrendered Maoists are being provided skill training along with monthly financial assistance of Rs 10,000. He added that the new policy also includes provisions for allotment of land for farming and land to build houses in urban areas, aimed at securing their future and livelihood.

Fresh surrenders reported from Bijapur

Earlier, 34 Naxals surrendered in Chhattisgarh’s Bijapur district under the state government’s rehabilitation initiative titled Poona Margham: Punarvas Se Punarjeevan (Return to the Mainstream: Social Reintegration through Rehabilitation). Police officials said the surrendered cadres were carrying a cumulative reward of Rs 84 lakh.

Officials noted that the latest surrenders reflect the growing impact of sustained anti-Naxal measures combined with confidence-building initiatives focused on welfare and reintegration.

Centre’s target to eliminate Naxalism by March 2026

The Chief Minister’s remarks come amid the Central Government’s stated goal to eradicate Naxalism from the country by March 2026 under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Authorities believe that rehabilitation-driven policies, along with security operations, are playing a key role in weakening the influence of Left-wing extremism in affected regions.

Continue Reading

Trending

© Copyright 2022 APNLIVE.com