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Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

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Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

GDP growth projection of 7-7.5 percent probably seems too optimistic

The Economic Survey 2018 projects 7-7.5 per cent growth rate in 2018-19, up from 6.75 per cent in the current fiscal, making India once again the world’s fastest growing major economy.

The forecast, that comes within an environment of slow and jobless growth, says the economy will grow on the back of major reforms which would be strengthened further in the next financial year.

“A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 per cent this fiscal and will rise to 7 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, thereby re- instating India as the world’s fastest growing major economy,” it says.

The survey points out that India can be rated as among the best performing economies in the world as the average growth during last three years is around 4 percentage points higher than global growth and nearly 3 percentage points higher than that of emerging market and developing economies.

It says that the GDP growth has averaged 7.3 per cent from 2014-15 to 2017-18, which is the highest among the major economies of the world.

“That this growth has been achieved in a milieu of lower inflation, improved current account balance and notable reduction in the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio makes it all the more creditable,” it says.

The survey says that after the preliminary analysis of Goods and Services Tax (GST) data, there has been a 50 per cent jump in the number of indirect taxpayers and a huge increase in voluntary registrations, particularly by small enterprises. The number of individual income tax filers increased by over 18 lakh since November 2016 the month when demonetisation was implemented.

As for the optimistic projections of growth rate, if the survey had taken into consideration of the sharply spiking fuel prices, then, possibly, a change of heart would have occurred. On the other hand, since petroleum is still beyond the scope of GST, higher collection from taxes remains a possibility despite shooting oil prices. That might hot, however, translate into higher GDP growth.

What will be difficult to achieve in this scenario would be fiscal discipline and the deficit could well travel beyond control. And, when the resource pool for buying oil grows, even a small appreciation in the value of the Rupee could have major adverse effects at home.

Much of the survey’s optimism stems from an expectation of higher export. That may be so, but if the Rupee has appreciated against the accepted basket of foreign currencies, it will cancel out the positivity and we could well be standing pretty much where we started.

Before going any further, we need to read the substance of the survey which states that growth is on track, revenue collection is on the rise – it has to be remembered that this is the first survey and first Union Budget after the implementation of GST – and fiscal deficit was under reasonable check.

The survey also sees growth in private investment, the hallmark of any growing economy in the next fiscal while also adding flesh to government initiatives in the education and agriculture.

Apart from the fact that this survey’s forecast runs in the face of the government’s own advance GDP data as was available this month – that expected the economy to grow at a four-year low of 6.5 percent in the current fiscal, mainly due to the poor performance of agriculture and manufacturing sector, against last fiscal’s 7.1 percent – it is possibly avoiding this confrontation, especially with jumping fuel prices barking at its feet.

The fiscal deficit target of the government for this fiscal was 3.2 percent of GDP against 3.5 percent in 2016-17, but it is well known that with the elections progressing and things not looking too good, finance minister Arun Jaitley may be forced to take a populist stance, in which case the fiscal deficit target can only be relaxed, with discipline given a go-by.

The projections here, therefore, would taste better with a pinch of salt.

India News

Deve Gowda hits back at Kharge’s married PM jibe, calls congress tie-up abusive relationship

HD Deve Gowda rebuts Mallikarjun Kharge’s remarks, saying JD(S) did not desert Congress and was forced to exit an “abusive” alliance.

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Former Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda has responded sharply to remarks made by Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge in the Rajya Sabha, rejecting the suggestion that he chose to align with Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the Congress.

War of words in rajya sabha

During his farewell speech in the Upper House, Kharge made a light-hearted remark about Deve Gowda’s political journey, saying he had “dated” the Congress but ultimately “married” Modi. The comment drew laughter across the House, including from the Prime Minister, who was present at the time.

Kharge also noted his long association with Deve Gowda, saying he had known him for over five decades but was unsure why the Janata Dal (Secular) leader shifted alliances.

Deve gowda’s ‘forced marriage’ reply

In a statement issued later, Deve Gowda said he was not present in the House when the comment was made as he had left for Bengaluru for Ugadi celebrations. Responding in similar metaphorical language, he said his association with the Congress was a “forced marriage” that eventually turned into an “abusive relationship.”

He asserted that his party did not leave the Congress alliance, but was instead compelled to move on after being sidelined.

Reference to 2018 karnataka alliance

Deve Gowda also revisited the 2018 Karnataka political developments, stating that the Congress leadership, including Ghulam Nabi Azad, had proposed his son H. D. Kumaraswamy as Chief Minister. He claimed he had instead suggested Kharge’s name, in the presence of leaders like Siddaramaiah.

Despite this, Kumaraswamy eventually took charge as Chief Minister after the Congress-JD(S) alliance formed the government.

Alliance collapse and aftermath

The coalition government collapsed in 2019 after multiple MLAs from both parties defected, leading to the fall of the government. Deve Gowda alleged that the Congress failed to act against those responsible for triggering the defections.

He maintained that the breakdown of the alliance left JD(S) with no option but to seek a “more stable” political partnership later.

Political context

Deve Gowda briefly served as Prime Minister following the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, heading a United Front government supported by the Congress. His party later allied with the Congress in Karnataka in 2018 before parting ways after the coalition government’s collapse.

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India News

Markets tumble as oil crosses $110, sensex falls over 1,900 points

Markets opened sharply lower with Sensex plunging over 1,900 points as crude oil crossed $110 and global factors weighed on sentiment.

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Sensex

Indian stock markets opened sharply lower on Thursday, snapping a three-session gaining streak, as rising global crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

Benchmark indices witnessed a gap-down opening, with the Sensex plunging over 1,900 points at the open, while the Nifty dropped more than 450 points. The decline follows reports of Iran targeting key energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, pushing Brent crude oil prices above the $110 per barrel mark.

At around 9:17 AM, the Sensex was trading at 75,235.05, down by 1,469.08 points. Meanwhile, the Nifty stood at 23,291.85, slipping 485.95 points.

Oil spike, global cues pressure equities

The surge in crude oil prices is a major concern for Indian markets, as higher oil costs can widen the current account deficit and fuel inflation. This often leads to cautious investor behaviour and triggers selling in equities.

Adding to the negative sentiment, the US Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates at current levels. Stable rates in the US tend to keep bond yields attractive, which can result in foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulling money out of emerging markets like India.

Early indicators had already pointed to a weak start. GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 23,324, down 453 points, signalling a negative opening for domestic indices.

Expert view signals sectoral shift

According to InvestorAi’s strategic outlook, there has been a noticeable shift in market positioning towards IT large-cap stocks. The move reflects a preference for companies with stable earnings visibility, especially those earning in dollars amid a weakening rupee.

The analysis highlights that IT exporters benefit from currency depreciation, as revenues are largely dollar-denominated while costs remain in rupees. However, the outlook remains sensitive to crude prices. A sustained rise above $110 could force policy tightening and impact valuations.

Key stocks in focus

Among the top conviction picks highlighted:

  • Mphasis seen as a strong mid-cap IT play with AI and cloud exposure
  • Wipro emerging as a turnaround candidate with improving margins
  • TCS acting as a sector bellwether reflecting broader IT trends
  • PB Fintech offering a high-margin digital growth story
  • KEI Industries representing domestic infrastructure and electrification demand

What investors should watch

Market participants are closely tracking the rupee’s movement against the US dollar. A sustained breach beyond 90.5–91 levels could further support IT stocks but may also signal broader macroeconomic stress.

Additionally, crude oil prices and geopolitical developments will remain key triggers for market direction in the near term.

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India News

Delhi-NCR sees second spell of rain and thunderstorms in four days

Delhi-NCR experienced another spell of rain and thunderstorms on March 18, with IMD forecasting more showers over the next few days.

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Delhi and parts of the National Capital Region witnessed another spell of rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds on Wednesday evening, marking the second such weather event in the past four days.

The sudden change brought relief from unusually high temperatures recorded earlier this month. According to officials, the temperature at Safdarjung — the city’s base weather station — was recorded at 24 degrees Celsius at 7 pm.

The India Meteorological Department had earlier issued an alert predicting light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning on March 18. Several areas across the capital experienced gusty winds along with brief but intense showers.

More rain likely over next two days

The weather department has forecast partly cloudy skies for March 19 and 20, with chances of light rain or thundershowers occurring once or twice during the day. On March 21, skies are expected to remain cloudy with the possibility of light showers continuing.

Conditions are likely to stabilise from March 23 onwards, with forecasts indicating a return to partly cloudy to clear skies across the region.

Weather activity across India to intensify

The IMD has also indicated widespread weather activity across multiple regions of the country in the coming days. Rainfall is expected to intensify in several states, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds.

In the northeastern region, heavy rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya during the early part of the week.

Meanwhile, the western Himalayan region is also set to witness a shift in weather patterns. Himachal Pradesh is likely to receive heavy rainfall on March 19 and 20, while Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir may experience heavy showers around March 20.

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