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Is India’s future in Afghanistan under threat?

On February 29, the US signed a hugely-significant deal with Taliban, paving the way for exit of American troops from Afghanistan and mainstreaming of the fanatic Islamist organisation.

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On February 29, the US signed a hugely-significant deal with Taliban, paving the way for exit of American troops from Afghanistan and mainstreaming of the fanatic Islamist organisation.Two months on, India has reportedly wound up its operations at two of its four consulates in Afghanistan — Jalalabad and Herat provinces. The entire staff of these two Missions, along with the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) personnel deployed there for security, was quietly evacuated a few days back, according to some reports.

The operation was carried out when the entire world remained occupied with the coronavirus pandemic and amidst inputs of security threats.The temporary closure of the two Indian Consulates, located close to Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan and Iran, may not be directly linked to the US-Taliban deal. However, the implications of the agreement on India’s future in the war-torn country cannot be ignored.

The US-Taliban deal, while mainstreaming the ‘terrorist’ outfit, has facilitated return of thousands of Afghans, most probably including the Taliban operatives and sympathisers, to their home from Pakistan.This clearly heightens the threat for Indian interests in Afghanistan, particularly since there have been a number of terror attacks on Indian assets, including Embassy, Jalalabad Consulate and Indian nationals, carried out by Taliban, at the behest of Pakistan.

Significantly, the evacuation took place days after a terror attack on a Gurdwara in Kabul on March 25, which killed 25 people.India has two more consulates in Afghanistan – in Mazar-e-Sharif and Kandahar – besides the Embassy in Kabul, which continue to function as of now. A review of security of these assets is also being undertaken.

The closure of the two consulates may have been carried out in secrecy but the significance of the move speaks volumes about the future of India in Afghanistan, which seems to be under threat in the aftermath of the US-Taliban agreement. At stake is an investment of over 2.4 billion dollars and  numerous capacity-building activities spread across the war-torn country.

The deal, besides other things, mandates withdrawal of the troops of the US and its allies from Afghanistan within 14 months. The deal brought Taliban, which was a top target for the US for nearly 18 years, into mainstream, thus encouraging the terror outfit to step up its military operations and attacks to dislodge the democratic setup and decimate other Afghan factions.

Ever since the agreement in Doha was signed, the Taliban has stepped up its military campaign against the government forces, in its tryst to capture and control more and more areas of Afghanistan, with ultimate aim of possibly taking over Kabul.

The increasing prowess of Taliban is particularly worrying for India, considering the history of terror attacks carried out by this proxy outfit of Pakistan’s notorious intelligence agency ISI on Indian assets, including the Embassy and personnel.

If Taliban succeeds in capturing power in Kabul, India is going to again see an Afghanistan administration which is hostile and inimical, like it was during the period 1996 to 2001.Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani is facing intense pressure, not only because of the increased military aggression by the Taliban but also because of demand for release of Taliban cadres from prisons as per the agreement reached between the US and the fanatic Islamic group.

The Ghani government is not in a mood to release the Taliban cadres, wary that the move will give a boost to the outfit.US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has said “Both sides must also accelerate the release of prisoners” even as he urged Taliban to call a humanitarian ceasefire during Ramadan month.

“…Ramadan offers the Taliban an opportunity to embrace a humanitarian ceasefire to reduce violence and suspend offensive military operations until the health crisis is over,” Khalilzad tweeted.

Ghani also, on the eve of Ramadan, appealed to the Taliban last week for a ceasefire in view of the special conditions created by coronavirus.Ghani’s appeal came as dozens of Afghan security force members were killed in Taliban attacks in the recent past.

Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen, however, ruled out a ceasefire as he referred to the prisoners’ release issue and termed Ghani’s appeal insincere.The Taliban is demanding release of 5,000 of its cadres by the Afghan government as per its deal with the US. The Afghan government has agreed to the release of 1,500 prisoners but through a conditioned and gradual process.

According to National Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib, five of 15 prisoners specifically sought by the Taliban were involved in major attacks in Kabul, including the bombing at German Embassy in which dozens were killed.

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Nawaz Sharif urges Shehbaz Sharif to pursue diplomacy over aggression against India

Nawaz Sharif has advised Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to avoid aggression and focus on diplomacy following India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.

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In a significant development amidst escalating regional tensions, former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has urged his younger brother and current Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, to adopt a diplomatic approach rather than an aggressive stance towards India.

During a meeting in Lahore on Sunday evening, Shehbaz Sharif briefed Nawaz Sharif about the government’s recent actions against India, following India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) after the Pahalgam attack. The Pakistani government, in response, had closed its airspace for India and reportedly stepped up its readiness to counter any hostile moves.

Sources indicate that Shehbaz Sharif expressed concerns about India’s suspension of the water-sharing agreement, warning that it could escalate tensions dangerously in the region. He emphasized Pakistan’s preparedness to respond strongly if necessary.

However, Nawaz Sharif, founder of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), advised a more measured path. He recommended using all diplomatic avenues to de-escalate tensions and restore peace with India. Nawaz Sharif stressed the importance of avoiding any aggressive actions that could worsen the situation.

In a related move, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has suggested the formation of an international commission comprising representatives from countries like the United States, Russia, China, and Britain to investigate the Pahalgam attack, seeking broader international involvement in addressing the conflict.

The ongoing situation between India and Pakistan remains delicate, with calls from within Pakistan’s leadership for calm and dialogue to prevent further deterioration.

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Asaduddin Owaisi criticises Bilawal Bhutto’s remarks amid Indus Waters Treaty row

Asaduddin Owaisi hits out at Bilawal Bhutto Zardari for his provocative “blood will flow” remark after India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, highlighting the tragic consequences of terrorism.

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Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari

AIMIM leader and Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi has strongly rebuked Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari over his controversial statement following India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. Owaisi reminded Bhutto of the tragic assassinations of his mother, former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, and grandfather, former President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.

Bilawal Bhutto, who was Pakistan’s Foreign Minister till 2023 and remains an influential figure in the ruling coalition, had issued a provocative warning after India’s decision, reportedly saying, “The Indus is ours and will remain ours – either our water will flow through it, or their blood.”

Responding to these remarks, Owaisi said Bhutto should reconsider his words, recalling how terrorism claimed the lives of his mother and grandfather. “Forget about such childish talk. His mother was killed by terrorists. He should not speak in this manner,” Owaisi said, stressing that terrorism must be condemned universally and not selectively.

Owaisi also criticised Pakistan’s leadership for threatening India with nuclear weapons, highlighting the brutality of recent terror attacks. “If you enter a country and kill innocents, no nation will remain silent,” he said. He compared extremist elements to the Khawarij and ISIS sympathisers, known for their radical ideologies.

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Rawalpindi in December 2007 has long been linked to extremist groups, though the case remains unresolved.

Bilawal Bhutto’s comments have sparked wide condemnation across India’s political spectrum. Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri suggested that Bhutto should undergo a mental health evaluation, while Congress MP Shashi Tharoor labelled the remarks “inflammatory.” Tharoor warned that any aggression from Pakistan would be met with an appropriate response, asserting, “If blood is going to flow, it will possibly flow more on their side than ours.”

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India inks Rs 63,000 crore deal for 26 Rafale-M jets to strengthen naval fleet

India has signed a ₹63,000 crore deal with France to acquire 26 Rafale M fighter jets, strengthening the Navy’s capabilities aboard INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya.

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India has finalized a major ₹63,000 crore agreement with France for the acquisition of 26 Rafale M fighter jets, enhancing its maritime strength significantly. This government-to-government deal, signed on Monday, includes 22 single-seater and four twin-seater trainer variants, with delivery expected by 2031.

The deal not only covers the procurement of the jets but also includes comprehensive fleet maintenance, logistical support, and training for Navy personnel. In a notable boost to the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ initiative, indigenous manufacturing of several components will be undertaken under offset obligations.

The Rafale M, currently operated only by the French Navy, is renowned for its superior capabilities among naval fighter jets globally. It features Safran Group’s reinforced landing gear, folding wings, and a robust undercarriage designed to endure the tough conditions of carrier-based operations.

The Indian Navy plans to deploy these new Rafale-M fighters aboard its aircraft carriers, INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya, replacing the ageing fleet of MiG-29K aircraft. This move is expected to significantly bolster India’s maritime defense capabilities, especially amid rising security challenges in the Indian Ocean region.

In December, Navy Chief Admiral Dinesh Tripathi emphasized a strategic shift to “negate” any infringement in India’s operational areas, highlighting the preparedness to counter threats from neighboring regions.

India’s Air Force, which already operates 36 Rafale ‘C’ variant jets from northern bases, will also benefit indirectly through upgrades to systems like the ‘buddy-buddy’ aerial refueling capability, allowing fighter jets to stay airborne for extended missions.

Looking ahead, the Navy is also progressing toward the induction of indigenous fifth-generation, twin-engine deck-based fighters, being developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). These fighters will complement the Air Force’s upcoming Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), further strengthening India’s air and maritime security architecture.

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