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Monsoon 2025 arrives in Kerala, earliest onset in 16 years, IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall

The 2025 monsoon season begins with an early onset over Kerala on May 24, the fastest since 2009, as the IMD predicts above-normal rainfall and stable weather conditions.

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Heavy rainfall

The southwest monsoon officially reached Kerala on Saturday, marking its earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this early arrival—on May 24—precedes the usual June 1 onset by a full week.

Meteorological records show that since 1975, only once has the monsoon arrived earlier than this—on May 19 in 1990. Despite this, experts caution that the onset date doesn’t necessarily indicate the quantity or distribution of rainfall expected throughout the monsoon season.

Typically, the monsoon begins its journey over Kerala by June 1, sweeps across the country by July 8, and starts to retreat around September 17. The full withdrawal usually concludes by October 15.

Here’s how recent years compare:

  • 2024: May 30
  • 2023: June 8
  • 2022: May 29
  • 2021: June 3
  • 2020: June 1
  • 2019: June 8
  • 2018: May 29

This year’s May 24 onset is a significant deviation from this pattern, as confirmed by IMD data.

For the 2025 monsoon, the IMD has projected above-normal cumulative rainfall. The department has also ruled out the presence of El Niño conditions, which typically suppress rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.

Based on IMD’s long-period average of 87 cm over 50 years, rainfall in the range of 96% to 104% is considered normal. For reference:

  • Above normal: 105%-110%
  • Excess: Over 110%
  • Below normal: 90%-95%
  • Deficient: Below 90%

In 2024, India recorded 934.8 mm of rainfall, equating to 108% of the average—the highest since 2020.

Past five-year rainfall data:

  • 2024: 934.8 mm (108%)
  • 2023: 820 mm (94.4%)
  • 2022: 925 mm
  • 2021: 870 mm
  • 2020: 958 mm

The monsoon season is critical to India’s economy and food security. It directly impacts the agricultural sector, which sustains the livelihood of around 42% of the population and contributes 18.2% to the national GDP. Additionally, the rains play a vital role in replenishing reservoirs essential for drinking water and hydroelectric power generation.

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PM Modi assures no discrimination in women’s quota, delimitation debate intensifies in Parliament

PM Narendra Modi has assured that women’s reservation will be implemented without discrimination, amid a heated debate over delimitation in Parliament.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured that there will be no discrimination in the implementation of women’s reservation, as Parliament witnessed a sharp debate over the proposed linkage between the quota and delimitation exercise.

During the ongoing special session, the government reiterated its commitment to ensuring fair representation while addressing concerns raised by opposition parties regarding the timing and structure of the legislation.

The proposed framework aims to reserve 33 percent of seats for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies. However, its implementation is tied to a fresh delimitation exercise, which is expected after the next census.

Opposition questions timing and intent

Opposition leaders have raised concerns that linking the women’s quota to delimitation could delay its implementation. They argue that the process of redrawing constituencies may push the actual rollout further into the future.

The issue has triggered a broader political confrontation, with multiple parties questioning whether the move could alter representation across states.

Some critics have also alleged that the delimitation exercise could disproportionately benefit certain regions based on population, a charge the government has rejected.

Government reiterates commitment to fair implementation

Responding to these concerns, the Centre has maintained that the reforms are necessary to ensure accurate and updated representation based on population data.

Leaders from the ruling side have repeatedly emphasized that the process will be carried out transparently and without bias. The assurance that there will be “no discrimination” is aimed at addressing fears among states and opposition parties.

The debate marks a key moment in Parliament, with both sides engaging in intense exchanges over one of the most significant electoral reforms in recent years.

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Give all tickets to Muslim women, Amit Shah says, attacking Akhilesh Yadav on sub-quota demand

A sharp exchange between Amit Shah and Akhilesh Yadav in Parliament over sub-quota for Muslim women highlights key divisions on women’s reservation implementation.

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A heated exchange broke out in Parliament during discussions on the women’s reservation framework, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav locking horns over the demand for a sub-quota for Muslim women.

The debate unfolded as the government pushed forward key legislative measures to implement 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.

Akhilesh Yadav argued that the proposed reservation must ensure representation for women from marginalised communities, including Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Muslim women. He said that without such provisions, large sections could remain excluded from political participation.

He also questioned the timing of the bill, alleging that the Centre was avoiding a caste census. According to him, a census would lead to renewed demands for caste-based reservations, which the government is reluctant to address.

Government rejects religion-based quota

Responding to the demand, Amit Shah made it clear that reservation based on religion is not permitted under the Constitution.

He stated that any proposal to provide quota to Muslims on religious grounds would be unconstitutional, firmly rejecting the idea of a separate sub-quota for Muslim women within the broader reservation framework.

The government has maintained that the existing framework already includes provisions for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) women within the overall reservation structure.

Wider political divide over implementation

The issue of sub-categorisation within the women’s quota has emerged as a major flashpoint, even as most opposition parties broadly support the idea of women’s reservation.

Samajwadi Party leaders reiterated that their support for the bill depends on inclusion of OBC and minority women, while the government continues to defend its constitutional position.

The debate is part of a broader discussion during the special Parliament session, where multiple bills linked to delimitation and implementation of the women’s quota are being taken up.

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No state will lose a seat, Centre assures as delimitation debate takes centre stage in Parliament

Parliament’s special session begins with key focus on implementing women’s reservation and delimitation, setting the stage for major electoral changes.

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Parliament

A special session of Parliament commenced on Thursday, with the Centre set to take up crucial legislation related to women’s reservation and delimitation of constituencies. The session, scheduled over three days, is expected to witness intense debate as the government pushes forward its legislative agenda.

At the centre of discussions is the proposal to operationalise the women’s reservation law, which seeks to allocate 33 percent of seats in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies to women. The law, passed earlier, requires enabling provisions before it can be implemented.

The rollout of the reservation is closely tied to the delimitation exercise — a process that redraws parliamentary constituencies based on updated population data. The implementation is expected only after the next census and delimitation process are completed.

The government is aiming to put in place the framework so that the reservation can be enforced in future elections, likely around 2029.

Delimitation and numbers at play

Delimitation is a key aspect of the proposed changes, as it will determine how seats are redistributed and which constituencies are reserved. The exercise is expected to reflect population shifts and may also involve an increase in the total number of Lok Sabha seats.

This linkage has made the issue politically sensitive, with several opposition parties backing women’s reservation in principle but raising concerns over how and when delimitation will be carried out.

Political reactions and expected debate

The session is likely to see sharp exchanges between the government and opposition. While there is broad agreement on increasing women’s representation, disagreements remain over the timing, process, and potential political implications of the delimitation exercise.

Some leaders have argued that delimitation could significantly alter the balance of representation among states, making it a contentious issue beyond the women’s quota itself.

The government, however, has framed the move as a step toward strengthening women’s participation in governance and ensuring more inclusive policymaking.

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