By Vickram Kilpady

The Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance in Bihar is set to return to power with a landslide victory of over 200 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly elections, results of which were declared on Friday. The Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagathbandhan, which also includes the Congress, came a distant second with less than 35 seats.

Nitish Kumar, who led a minority government after the 2020 victory and was saddled with two BJP Deputy CMs over the last five years, seems to have had the last laugh when his party, the Janata Dal United, managed to win 84 seats as opposed to 43 in 2020. The BJP is set to become the single largest party in the Assembly with 90 seats. The RJD, which was the single largest party in 2020 with 75 seats, had 25 seats including leads. There are bound to be interesting days ahead in the winning coalition. And if everything goes well, Kumar may be sworn in as chief minister for the 10th time and is already holding the longest tenure in power as Bihar CM.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi thanked the people of Bihar for the victory and promised to further advance the state’s development. Crediting the landslide to good governance and development, he said NDA workers countered every lie brought against them by the opposition. Modi said the youth and women of the state will get many opportunities to build a prosperous life.

Claims of Kumar’s anti-incumbency, which was the focal point of the Mahagathbandhan, were thrown to the winds in this NDA victory. Also left in the lurch was the Jan Suraaj Party, floated by electoral strategist Prashant Kishor, not making a mark despite its founder’s insistence during the campaign that the NDA will not return to power.

The victory was plagued by complaints of electoral fixing, the effects of the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls by the Election Commission of India in which 65 lakh voters were struck off initially, and the release of Rs 10,000 to 25 lakh women under the Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana just ahead of the announcement of elections.

With leads blitzing away in the morning, Congress leader Udit Raj tweeted that SIR was ahead in the elections, thus venting the popular disaffection with the ECI exercise that ruffled several votebanks. The Jan Suraaj too bemoaned that the women of Bihar had forfeited their futures for just Rs 10,000. The Congress noted both the ECI’s ignoring opposition complaints regarding SIR and the Bihar government’s pro-women largesse ahead of polls.

Among the many reasons being pointed to for the Mahagathbandhan’s dismal showing, the inability of the Congress and RJD to make room for the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen in the alliance was cited as key. The AIMIM, which was keen to be in the Mahagathbandhan, won 5 seats handsomely in the Seemanchal region bordering West Bengal at the cost of the opposition alliance, said reports.

Other reports spoke of the Mahila-EBC (ME) factor for the NDA which defeated the RJD’s grip on the Muslim-Yadav (MY) votebank.

Chirag Paswan has delivered one of his strongest electoral performances in Bihar, marking a significant rise for the 43-year-old Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader within the National Democratic Alliance. After negotiating firmly for 29 assembly seats, he is leading in 22, recording an impressive strike rate of nearly 75%.

The outcome strengthens Chirag’s position in state politics, particularly after his party’s clean sweep in all five Lok Sabha seats it contested last year. For a leader once dismissed as inexperienced following the 2020 Assembly results—when the then-united LJP won just one of over 130 seats—this turnaround marks a notable phase of consolidation.

From setbacks to resurgence

Following the split in the party in 2021 after his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras staked claim to his father Ram Vilas Paswan’s legacy, Chirag faced questions over his political depth. However, he gradually rebuilt the organisation, projecting himself as a ‘Yuva Bihari’ and reinforcing the party’s connect with Dalit communities.

The 2024 Lok Sabha success played a pivotal role in reshaping his image and placed him back in serious contention within the NDA fold. Even though key alliance partners were initially reluctant to offer more than 20 seats, Chirag’s tactical outreach to the Jan Suraaj Party signalled that he could not be sidelined. He eventually secured 29 seats for the 2025 election.

Chirag’s political roadmap

Ahead of the polls, Chirag said he would stake claim to the deputy chief minister’s post while acknowledging that some party workers hoped to see him in the top job. He maintained that the chief minister’s position “was never vacant in 2025”, but added that ambition within the cadre is a positive sign.

He outlined broader plans that extend beyond Bihar, stating that his next political focus would be the Uttar Pradesh and Punjab elections in 2027, followed by working to ensure a fourth term for the prime minister in the 2029 Lok Sabha polls and then planning forward to 2030.

Days before counting, he also reiterated his loyalty to PM Narendra Modi, dismissing any possibility of switching alliances if results differed from NDA expectations. He emphasised that he remained fully committed to the prime minister and ruled out any alternative political alignment.

As counting progressed on Tuesday morning, the National Democratic Alliance surged ahead in the Bihar Assembly Election 2025, crossing the 160-seat mark within the first few hours. By 10:15 am, the alliance was leading in 162 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan was ahead in 77 constituencies.

Amit Shah’s prediction mirrors early trends

The strong performance closely aligns with remarks made earlier by Home Minister Amit Shah, who had asserted at a public forum that the NDA would secure 160 or more seats with a two-thirds majority. He had reiterated the same forecast days later, dismissing speculation about internal differences within the five-party alliance.

According to him, the NDA partners — JDU, BJP, LJP, HAM and RLM — were contesting together with complete unity. His comment comparing the coalition to the “five Pandavas” reflected his confidence in the alliance’s cohesion.

Exit polls had already favored NDA

Ahead of the counting day, exit polls studied by media had broadly projected a comfortable win for the NDA. While some indicated a closer contest with the Mahagathbandhan, all forecast the Nitish Kumar-led alliance returning to power.

Nitish Kumar’s party regains strength

One of the standout developments of the day has been the resurgence of the JDU. After being overshadowed in 2020 with 43 seats, the party is now on course to win around 74 seats, restoring its dominant position within the alliance.

RJD likely to lose single-largest party status

The Rashtriya Janata Dal, which topped the tally in 2020 with 75 seats, appears set to fall significantly behind this time. Early trends indicate a reversal of fortunes, placing the opposition alliance firmly behind the NDA’s expanding lead.