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UP verdict in perspective

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Opinion Verdict 2017

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]There is no need to be overwhelmed by BJP’s superlative performance 

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

The temptation to focus exclusively on the verdict in Uttar Pradesh, and hence on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president Amit Shah and the BJP is natural.  UP is big and important, but it is important to remember not for India but for itself. India seems to progress very well on the economic and social front despite UP lagging far behind. But most politicians and political pundits seem to believe that UP is key Indian politics and to ruling India.

It is forgotten that from 1991 to 2009, it was not necessary for any party to win UP in order to form a government in Delhi. The BJP had won 51 from UP and 120 in Lok Sabha  in 1991, 52 and 161 in 1996, 57 and 182 in 1998, 29 and 182 in 1999, 10 and 138 in 2004, 10 and 116 in 2009, 71 and 281 in 2014. When Congress led a coalition government in 2004 and 2009 with 145 and 206 seats in Lok Sabha, it had won 10 and 21 from UP.

The picture had changed in 2014, and it seemed that UP is back at the centre of Indian politics. BJP had won 71 seats in the Lok Sabha elections that year, and it enabled the party to go past the magical simple majority mark of 272 seats all on its own. The BJP managed to get 281 seats on its own. But the irony remains. Despite getting a landslide victory in UP, BJP just managed a simple majority in Lok Sabha. So, the importance of UP is simply exaggerated.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

To interpret the victory of BJP as the victory of communal forces in UP would be a distortion of facts.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The point to be remembered is that UP’s assembly elections have logic of their own, and they should not be linked with a political party’s performance in the Lok Sabha election. There seems to be an apparent connection between the 71 seats that the BJP had won in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, and the 300 assembly seats it is set to win in 2017 assembly elections. But it would be nearer truth to keep the two apart.  The successive successes of the BJP in the Lok Sabha and the UP assembly elections is indeed an impressive record but there is no necessary link between the two, and the speculation that it is a sign of how the BJP would do in 2019 Lok Sabha election is a little too far-fetched.

It is a known fact that no two elections are the same. The seats won will vary, and so will the percentage of votes. The seat tally might either go down or go up, and the vote percentage may remain nearly the same. This is not to take away credit from Modi, Shah and the BJP. Their assiduous work seems to have paid off. The party could have excited communal passion here and there it could have touched on the inflammatory communal card here and there. But it did not win this assembly election or the 2014 Lok Sabha election on a communal agenda despite elements of communalism in the poll campaign. To interpret the victory of BJP as the victory of communal forces in UP would be a distortion of facts.  

What seems to have contributed to the overwhelming success of the BJP can be attributed to the split in the votes of SP due to the internal feud, the increasing marginalization of Congress. The poor performance of BSP will remain a puzzle, though the vote percentage remains impressive enough.

It is necessary to look at the assembly elections in the other four states. While BJP won Uttarakhand overwhelmingly, so did the Congress in Punjab. It has been a close fight in Goa and in Manipur, where BJP has an edge in Goa and Congress in Manipur.

The defeat of SP and BSP in UP should not be interpreted to mean that BJP has wiped out political opposition in the country as a whole. BJP has indeed emerged as a dominant party in the country’s politics, a position which was occupied by the Congress till the end of 1980s. The BJP had steadily climbed to the peak from 1991 to 2014 in Lok Sabha elections. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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MK Stalin predicts frequent PM Modi visits to Tamil Nadu before assembly election

MK Stalin has said Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Tamil Nadu more often ahead of the Assembly election, calling the tours politically motivated and questioning the Centre’s support to the state.

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MK Stalin

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. K. Stalin has predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will increase his visits to the state as the Assembly election, expected in April or May, draws closer.

Speaking ahead of the polls, the DMK president said the Prime Minister has already begun touring Tamil Nadu and is likely to visit frequently in the coming months. He claimed that such visits could create discomfort within the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), as alliance partners may fear the political impact of repeated appearances.

Stalin calls visit politically motivated

The Chief Minister described the Prime Minister’s scheduled programmes in the state as “politically motivated”. PM Modi is set to attend various events in Madurai in southern Tamil Nadu, including the inauguration of the first phase of the AIIMS hospital project. He is also expected to visit the Thiruparankundram Temple amid the Karthigai Deepam-related controversy and participate in a public meeting organised by the NDA.

Stalin said he has been working for all sections of the population, including those who did not vote for his party. In contrast, he remarked that some leaders are visible in the state only during election time and increase their visits as polls approach.

Criticism over Union Budget allocations

The DMK leader also criticised the BJP-led central government, accusing it of neglecting Tamil Nadu. He pointed out that while approval was recently granted for the Gujarat Metro project, there were no major announcements or allocations for Tamil Nadu in the Union Budget.

Stalin asserted that voters would remember the lack of significant measures for the state. He framed the upcoming election as a contest between Tamil Nadu and the NDA, stating that the state should be governed from Fort St George in Chennai rather than from Delhi.

The ruling DMK is currently allied with several smaller parties and, at present, the Congress, as it seeks a third consecutive term in office. Its principal rival, the AIADMK, is aligned with the BJP as part of the NDA.

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Shashi Tharoor questions Centre over Kerala name change to Keralam

Shashi Tharoor has criticised the Centre’s decision to approve renaming Kerala as Keralam, questioning its impact and pointing to the lack of major projects for the state.

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shashi tharoor

Congress MP Shashi Tharoor has criticised the central government over its decision to approve the renaming of Kerala as ‘Keralam’, arguing that the move prioritises symbolism over development.

Reacting to the Union Cabinet’s approval, Tharoor said that the state’s name has always been ‘Keralam’ in Malayalam and questioned the practical impact of introducing the Malayalam term into English usage.

“It has already been ‘Keralam’ in Malayalam. So now, a Malayalam word is coming into English. I don’t know what difference it makes,” he said, adding that the state has not received major projects such as an AIIMS or new institutions from the Centre. He also pointed out that no significant allocations were made for Kerala in the Union Budget.

In a separate post on X, Tharoor raised what he described as a “small linguistic question” about what residents of the state would be called if the name change is implemented. Referring to existing terms such as “Keralite” and “Keralan”, he remarked that alternatives like “Keralamite” sounded like a microbe and “Keralamian” like a rare earth mineral.

The Union Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cleared the proposal on Tuesday. The move comes ahead of the upcoming state Assembly elections, in which 140 members of the legislative assembly are to be elected. The poll schedule is yet to be announced by the Election Commission of India.

The state assembly had earlier passed a resolution seeking the change in official records. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had moved the resolution in 2024, urging the Union government to adopt the name ‘Keralam’ in all languages listed in the Eighth Schedule of the Constitution.

He had stated that the demand for a united Kerala for Malayalam-speaking people dates back to the national freedom movement.

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Tamil Nadu potboiler: Now, Sasikala to launch new party ahead of election

Sasikala has announced the launch of a new political party ahead of the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, positioning herself against AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami.

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In a significant political development ahead of the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, expelled AIADMK leader V. K. Sasikala has announced that she will float a new political party and contest the polls by fielding her own candidates.

Speaking in Madurai before heading to Pasumpon for a public event, Sasikala said she would unveil her party’s flag later in the evening. She indicated that more details regarding the party’s structure and plans would be shared at the gathering.

The event venue carries political symbolism. Pasumpon is the birthplace of Thevar leader Muthuramalinga Thevar, and Sasikala herself belongs to the influential Thevar community in southern Tamil Nadu. The programme was held as part of birth anniversary events of former Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa.

Direct challenge to EPS

Sasikala’s move is being viewed as a direct political challenge to AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS). After Jayalalithaa’s death in 2016, Sasikala briefly took control of the party and had appointed Palaniswami as Chief Minister. However, following her conviction in the disproportionate assets case, she served a four-year prison term, and during that period, she was expelled from the party.

Palaniswami later aligned with O. Panneerselvam, whom Sasikala had earlier removed from the Chief Minister’s post. The two leaders subsequently adopted a dual leadership arrangement within the party and government.

Sasikala remains disqualified from contesting elections until 2027 due to her conviction. Nevertheless, she has stated that she intends to field candidates under her new party banner.

Fragmented Thevar vote base

Over the years, expulsions within the AIADMK — including Sasikala, her nephew TTV Dhinakaran and O Panneerselvam — have led to divisions within the Thevar support base. Political observers have linked this fragmentation to the party’s weakened electoral performance in the elections following Jayalalithaa’s passing.

While Dhinakaran has returned to the NDA fold, reports suggest Palaniswami is opposed to any arrangement that includes Sasikala or Panneerselvam. OPS, meanwhile, has exited the NDA.

Sasikala has repeatedly criticised Palaniswami, describing him as a betrayer, while he maintains that his leadership stems from the support of AIADMK legislators rather than her backing.

The AIADMK has not issued an official statement on Sasikala’s announcement. However, a senior party leader questioned her political standing, pointing out her disqualification from contesting elections and referring to legal issues linked to Jayalalithaa’s death.

With the Assembly polls approaching, Sasikala’s re-entry into active politics could further complicate the opposition space in Tamil Nadu and influence electoral calculations, particularly in the southern districts.

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