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UP verdict in perspective

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Opinion Verdict 2017

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]There is no need to be overwhelmed by BJP’s superlative performance 

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

The temptation to focus exclusively on the verdict in Uttar Pradesh, and hence on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president Amit Shah and the BJP is natural.  UP is big and important, but it is important to remember not for India but for itself. India seems to progress very well on the economic and social front despite UP lagging far behind. But most politicians and political pundits seem to believe that UP is key Indian politics and to ruling India.

It is forgotten that from 1991 to 2009, it was not necessary for any party to win UP in order to form a government in Delhi. The BJP had won 51 from UP and 120 in Lok Sabha  in 1991, 52 and 161 in 1996, 57 and 182 in 1998, 29 and 182 in 1999, 10 and 138 in 2004, 10 and 116 in 2009, 71 and 281 in 2014. When Congress led a coalition government in 2004 and 2009 with 145 and 206 seats in Lok Sabha, it had won 10 and 21 from UP.

The picture had changed in 2014, and it seemed that UP is back at the centre of Indian politics. BJP had won 71 seats in the Lok Sabha elections that year, and it enabled the party to go past the magical simple majority mark of 272 seats all on its own. The BJP managed to get 281 seats on its own. But the irony remains. Despite getting a landslide victory in UP, BJP just managed a simple majority in Lok Sabha. So, the importance of UP is simply exaggerated.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

To interpret the victory of BJP as the victory of communal forces in UP would be a distortion of facts.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The point to be remembered is that UP’s assembly elections have logic of their own, and they should not be linked with a political party’s performance in the Lok Sabha election. There seems to be an apparent connection between the 71 seats that the BJP had won in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, and the 300 assembly seats it is set to win in 2017 assembly elections. But it would be nearer truth to keep the two apart.  The successive successes of the BJP in the Lok Sabha and the UP assembly elections is indeed an impressive record but there is no necessary link between the two, and the speculation that it is a sign of how the BJP would do in 2019 Lok Sabha election is a little too far-fetched.

It is a known fact that no two elections are the same. The seats won will vary, and so will the percentage of votes. The seat tally might either go down or go up, and the vote percentage may remain nearly the same. This is not to take away credit from Modi, Shah and the BJP. Their assiduous work seems to have paid off. The party could have excited communal passion here and there it could have touched on the inflammatory communal card here and there. But it did not win this assembly election or the 2014 Lok Sabha election on a communal agenda despite elements of communalism in the poll campaign. To interpret the victory of BJP as the victory of communal forces in UP would be a distortion of facts.  

What seems to have contributed to the overwhelming success of the BJP can be attributed to the split in the votes of SP due to the internal feud, the increasing marginalization of Congress. The poor performance of BSP will remain a puzzle, though the vote percentage remains impressive enough.

It is necessary to look at the assembly elections in the other four states. While BJP won Uttarakhand overwhelmingly, so did the Congress in Punjab. It has been a close fight in Goa and in Manipur, where BJP has an edge in Goa and Congress in Manipur.

The defeat of SP and BSP in UP should not be interpreted to mean that BJP has wiped out political opposition in the country as a whole. BJP has indeed emerged as a dominant party in the country’s politics, a position which was occupied by the Congress till the end of 1980s. The BJP had steadily climbed to the peak from 1991 to 2014 in Lok Sabha elections. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Supreme Court flags risk of lawlessness, pauses FIRs against ED officers in Bengal case

The Supreme Court paused FIRs against ED officers in the Bengal I-PAC raid case, warning that obstruction of central probes could lead to lawlessness and seeking responses from the Centre and state.

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Supreme Court

The Supreme Court on Wednesday delivered a sharp rebuke to the Mamata Banerjee-led West Bengal government, pausing FIRs lodged against officers of the Enforcement Directorate over searches linked to political consultancy I-PAC. The court said the case raises serious questions about interference in investigations and warned that failure to address them could lead to “lawlessness”.

A bench of Justice Prashant Mishra and Justice Vipul Pancholi sought replies from the Ministry of Home Affairs, the Department of Personnel and Training, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress government on the ED’s plea. The central agency has also sought the suspension of Bengal Director General of Police Rajeev Kumar and Kolkata Police Commissioner Manoj Kumar Verma, and a probe by the CBI. The matter will be heard next on February 3.

The ruling follows a standoff between the ED and the Bengal government after the agency conducted searches at premises linked to I-PAC, which manages election campaigns for the Trinamool Congress, in connection with a corruption case.

Court questions obstruction of central probes

Recording its prima facie view, the Supreme Court said the petition raised a “serious issue” concerning investigations by central agencies and possible obstruction by state authorities.

“There are larger questions which emerge and if not answered shall lead to lawlessness. If central agencies are working bona fide to probe a serious offence, a question arises: Can they be obstructed by party activities?” the bench observed.

Earlier in the day, the court also expressed disturbance over scenes of chaos in the Calcutta High Court during a hearing related to the same dispute.

ED alleges interference, seeks action against top cops

The Enforcement Directorate accused the West Bengal administration of interfering with its searches and investigation. Appearing for the agency, Solicitor General Tushar Mehta alleged that evidence was removed from the residence of an I-PAC co-founder and argued that such actions could encourage state police officers to aid and abet obstruction. He sought suspension of senior police officials.

Describing the disruption in the Calcutta High Court on January 9, Mehta called it “mobocracy”, saying a group of lawyers unconnected to the case disrupted proceedings, forcing an adjournment. The bench asked whether the high court had been turned into a protest site, to which Mehta responded that messages had circulated calling lawyers to gather at a specific time.

Banerjee’s counsel defends move, cites election confidentiality

Senior advocate Kapil Sibal, appearing for Mamata Banerjee, questioned the timing of the ED’s presence in Bengal ahead of Assembly elections. He said the last development in the coal scam case dated back to February 2024 and argued that I-PAC handled election-related work under a formal contract with the Trinamool Congress.

According to Sibal, election data stored at the premises was confidential and critical to campaign strategy. He said the party leadership had a right to protect such information.

Representing the Bengal government and the DGP, senior advocate Abhishek Singhvi referred to the January 9 disruption but argued it could not justify parallel proceedings in different courts. The bench responded that emotions “cannot go out of hand repeatedly”.

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Shashi Tharoor warns US tariffs on Iran could make Indian exports unviable

Shashi Tharoor has warned that cumulative US tariffs linked to Iran trade could rise to 75%, making most Indian exports to America commercially unviable.

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Shashi Tharoor

Congress MP and chairman of the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs Shashi Tharoor has expressed serious concern over the United States’ latest tariff announcement targeting countries that continue to trade with Iran, warning that such measures could severely impact Indian exporters.

Reacting to the decision by US President Donald Trump to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, Tharoor said Indian companies would struggle to remain competitive if cumulative tariffs rise to 75%. He noted that India was already at a disadvantage compared to several regional competitors.

Tharoor said he had been troubled by the US tariff regime from the outset, pointing out that India was initially subjected to a 25% tariff while rival exporting nations in Southeast Asia were charged significantly lower rates. According to him, countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh faced tariffs ranging between 15% and 19% on labour-intensive goods exported to the US.

He explained that the situation had worsened with additional sanctions-linked duties. With the existing 25% tariff, another 25% related to Russia-linked sanctions, and a further 25% tied to Iran-related measures, the total burden could rise to 75%. At that level, Tharoor said, most Indian exports would no longer be commercially viable in the American market.

While noting that certain sectors such as pharmaceuticals may continue to export as they are not heavily impacted by sanctions, he warned that other key export categories would be hit hard. Tharoor described the situation as very serious and said it required urgent attention.

The Congress MP also expressed hope that the newly appointed US Ambassador could help facilitate progress on a bilateral trade agreement. He stressed that India could not afford to wait through the entire year for a deal and said an agreement should ideally be concluded in the first quarter of 2026.

Commenting on recent diplomatic engagements between India and the US, Tharoor underlined the need for faster consensus on trade issues. He said that at tariff levels as high as 75%, the idea of a meaningful trade deal loses relevance. According to him, a rate closer to what the UK enjoys with the US, around 15%, would reflect the respect due to a strategic partner.

Tharoor’s remarks come after President Trump announced that any country continuing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on all trade with the United States, a move that has raised concerns among several trading partners.

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Indian Army symbolizes selfless service and duty, says PM Modi on Army Day

PM Narendra Modi on Army Day praised the Indian Army as a symbol of selfless service and unwavering duty, saluting the courage and sacrifice of its soldiers.

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On the occasion of Army Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday paid tribute to the Indian Army, describing its soldiers as a symbol of selfless service who protect the nation with unwavering resolve, even in the most challenging circumstances.

In a message shared on social media platform X, the prime minister said the country salutes the courage and steadfast commitment of Indian Army personnel. He noted that their dedication to duty inspires confidence and gratitude among citizens across the country.

“Our soldiers stand as a symbol of selfless service, safeguarding the nation with steadfast resolve, at times under the most challenging conditions,” PM Modi said. He added that the nation remembers with deep respect those who have laid down their lives while serving the country.

Army Day is observed every year on January 15 to commemorate a historic moment in India’s military history. The day marks the appointment of Field Marshal K M Cariappa as the first Indian Commander-in-Chief of the Indian Army in 1949, when he took over from British officer General Sir F R R Bucher.

The occasion serves as a reminder of the Indian Army’s role in defending the country’s sovereignty and honour, as well as the sacrifices made by its personnel in the line of duty.

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