Four states — Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu — are scheduled to vote in April/May 2026, presenting the Congress with four key opportunities to reset its political narrative after setbacks in recent elections.

After defeats in Delhi and Bihar last year, the party is keen to secure at least one significant win to reinforce its position ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha polls. However, the road to revival is layered with internal challenges and alliance uncertainties across the four states.

Congress’ 2026 election hopes

The Congress is particularly optimistic about its prospects in Kerala. Riding on what it considers a strong performance in the December 2025 local body elections, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) secured over 38 per cent of the combined vote share across corporation, municipality and panchayat polls.

In neighbouring Tamil Nadu, the mood is similarly positive. The Congress remains an ally of the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and expects the alliance to return to power for a second consecutive term. The party also believes the partnership can once again block the expansion efforts of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the state.

That said, seat-sharing negotiations are yet to begin and could prove contentious. Sections within the Tamil Nadu Congress unit are reportedly seeking a more active role in government if the alliance wins, a demand that has caused friction. There are also murmurs of possible realignments, including speculation about outreach to actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, which has positioned the DMK as its “political enemy”. The state Congress unit, however, has denied any formal link to such discussions and urged the DMK to begin seat talks.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the Congress won 18 seats in Tamil Nadu while the BJP secured four. In 2016, the Congress had won eight seats, whereas the BJP failed to open its account.

Kerala leadership balancing act

In Kerala, questions over leadership have hovered in the background. Senior leaders Shashi Tharoor and Ramesh Chennithala have both been seen as possible chief ministerial faces should the party come to power.

For now, the party has attempted to strike a balance. Chennithala has been named the leader of the election campaign, with Tharoor as his deputy. The Congress is expected to project a collective leadership approach rather than foreground a single face.

Tharoor had earlier drawn attention after comments that were interpreted by some within the party as being favourable to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP, particularly following remarks linked to the Pahalgam attack last year. His recent public support of Rahul Gandhi during a parliamentary confrontation over former Army chief MM Naravane’s unpublished memoir has been viewed by some as a sign of improving ties within the party.

Tough terrain in Bengal

The situation is more challenging in West Bengal. The Congress has decided to contest independently against both the ruling Trinamool Congress and the BJP, each a formidable opponent.

In the 2021 Assembly election, the Congress failed to win any of the 91 seats it contested and saw its vote share decline by 9.32 per cent. With limited organisational strength, the party’s decision to go solo is being viewed as a bold but low-risk strategy given its current position.

In June 2024, senior leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury stepped down as state unit chief following poor electoral performances. Subhankar Sarkar was appointed in his place. Chowdhury had consistently opposed an alliance with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s party, even during attempts at broader opposition unity.

The state unit has since ruled out tie-ups with the Trinamool Congress as well as with the Left Front.

Assam’s internal churn

Assam presents a different set of difficulties. The Congress currently holds 29 seats in the state Assembly and faces an uphill battle against the ruling BJP.

Controversy surrounding former state unit chief Bhupen Borah has cast a shadow over preparations. Borah recently submitted a resignation letter containing critical remarks about his successor, Gaurav Gogoi. Reports suggest he has also been courted by the BJP, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma expected to meet him.

Efforts by the party leadership, including outreach by Rahul Gandhi, appear to have paused any immediate exit, though uncertainty remains. The developments come just days before a scheduled visit by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to the state.

For the Congress, retaining its existing seats while strengthening its grassroots base may be a more realistic goal in Assam, with an eye on longer-term prospects.

Lessons from the past

Recent history underscores the risks posed by internal divisions. In Haryana, factional tensions between Kumari Selja and Bhupendra Singh Hooda were widely cited as factors in the party’s underperformance. Similar rivalries in Chhattisgarh between Bhupesh Baghel and TS Singh Deo, and in Rajasthan between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot, also weighed on the party’s electoral fortunes.

As the 2026 Assembly season approaches, the Congress finds itself with opportunities in multiple states — but also confronting internal strains and alliance complexities. Whether it can convert these contests into electoral gains may depend as much on managing its internal equations as on countering its rivals.