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5 state elections: Exit poll projections range from a farce to the far-fetched

Pollsters run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advice “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets.

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By Neeraj Mishra

Every year, some states have elections and every year, a farcical drama is played out on television channels, for days adding up to the actual counting hour. Familiar faces create and discuss highly improbable situations, stereotyped characters indulge in violence of words and extravagant exaggeration.

It is all aimed at creating confusion in the voter’s mind, infusing satta markets with more punters and general joy at the expense of viewers. This year is no different. India Today thinks the BJP can get 162 seats in Madhya Pradesh bettering its previous tally by more than 50. It does not pause to think why and how this is possible. The perceived anti-incumbency of 20 years has been turned on its head and a Gujarat-like result is possible without a similar communal situation or voter mindset.

At the same time, there are three other channels which think it’s a close race giving an average of only 100 seats to the BJP, 16 short of majority. Psephology is now a full time business with at least a dozen big companies that employ innumerable fake scientists.

Some of these companies have taken this to the next level like Prashant Kishor. They run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advise “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets. Clearly, winning is the only thing that matters as stakes are too high and the prize is control over the entire system at the state level.

Back to the exit polls though, the song on Chhattisgarh is quite identical in every channel. Every psephologist worth his salt knows that the BJP was so far behind in 2018 at 15 seats compared to the Congress’ 70 that to recover and beat it would be next to impossible, so every channel has the Congress ahead. But in a house of 90 to say that BJP will get between 36-46 seats and Congress will get 40-50 seats is a joke at the very least.

It would mean both parties are forming the government and the researcher is not sure so he has played safe. Keeping a two per cent margin in predictions is absolutely unacceptable here, since traditionally the difference between the two parties has been less than 2 per cent, except in 2018. Even a 0.75 per cent difference in votes can lead to a BJP-50 and Congress-38 situation in 2013. So to say, the BJP can get between 36 to 46 seats is absurd.

It’s the difference between losing and forming the government. After having covered more than two dozen elections, one has seen that the safest way to predict results is based on the prevailing mood about three months before the elections are announced. Barring something as drastic as Pulwama, people are unlikely to change their mind at the last moment.

So to say all along the campaign period that such and such party is improving its position is mostly low conjecture. Another noticeable thing in this elections has been the freebies on offer by sitting governments in all states. Shivraj Singh Chouhan beat them all by announcing he would give Rs 3000 per month to every married woman if voted back to power.

He even delivered two installments during the campaign period while the Election Commission did nothing about it, it did stop K. Chandrashekhar Rao from dispensing his pro-farmer cash. So have the labharthis (beneficiaries) then appropriated this round of elections? They certainly have caused a major rift among psephologists.

The wide difference in their predictions is perhaps also caused by which set of Labharthi they talked to. Labharthis also tend to aggregate their votes regionally. For instance in famine-ridden Bundelkhand in Madhya Pradesh, Rs 3000 means a lot but not so much in more affluent Malwa-Nimad.

The Congress’ offer of loan waiver may trump the BJP’s offer of Rs 12000 per annum to every woman over 18 in the Chhattisgarh plains but in the hilly tribal areas, it still rings a bell. Exit poll is an effective salve to pacify nervous candidates and supporters. No one really remembers or credits the channels with anything even if they were spot on. It is only a three-day carnival and should be treated as such. Real life happens on counting day.

India News

CBSE denies OSM portal data breach, terms online allegations misleading

CBSE has strongly dismissed social media allegations of a security breach in its On-Screen Marking (OSM) portal, clarifying that the exposed URL is a mere testing site containing no actual student data or exam marks.

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CBSE

The Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) has refuted viral claims circulating on social media regarding a security breach in its On-Screen Marking (OSM) portal. In an official statement, the national education board dismissed the allegations, labeling them completely false and highly misleading.

The clarification comes after social media posts suggested that sensitive student records and internal assessment systems had been compromised by unauthorised actors. Media reports indicate that the board has categorically denied any leak of actual student marks or examination-related details.

Testing site hosted no real student details

According to the statement released by the board, the web address highlighted in the viral allegations belongs strictly to a testing environment. The board clarified that this URL is utilized purely for internal evaluations, data sampling, and platform reviews during development phases.

The board firmly reiterated that no live student details, official scoreboards, or active examination data are stored on this testing site. Authorities have advised stakeholders and students to refrain from panic and avoid circulating unverified rumors that challenge the integrity of the examination system.

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India News

Congress Dismisses Karnataka Leadership Transition Rumors After Six-Hour Delhi Meet

The Congress party has rejected ongoing rumors regarding a leadership change or a rotating Chief Minister formula in Karnataka, stating that a recent six-hour meeting in Delhi focused strictly on the upcoming Rajya Sabha and MLC elections.

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The Congress party has strongly downplayed the intense political buzz surrounding a potential leadership transition or a change in the Chief Minister’s post in Karnataka. Following a marathon six-hour meeting with the state’s top leadership in New Delhi, the party explicitly rejected the ongoing speculation, labeling it as having “no reality.”

A brief statement issued to the media after the high-level meeting advised against spreading rumors, clarifying that the discussions were entirely centered on upcoming electoral strategies rather than structural changes within the state government. The party stated that the deliberations solely revolved around the state’s three vacant Rajya Sabha seats and the upcoming Member of Legislative Council (MLC) elections.

Rajya Sabha and MLC Polls Take Center Stage

The high-stakes meeting was attended by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, senior leader Rahul Gandhi, and party General Secretary KC Venugopal, alongside Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar.

Briefing the media post-meeting, KC Venugopal stated that conversations were strictly confined to the Rajya Sabha and MLC elections, emphasizing that there is no truth to any other political speculation. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah also confirmed that the agenda of a potential cabinet expansion or a leadership shift did not come up during the six-hour-long discussion.

Background of the Power Struggle

The question of leadership in Karnataka has remained a recurring theme for over a year. Supporters of Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar have consistently maintained that the central leadership promised a rotating Chief Ministership arrangement when the government was formed after the 2023 assembly elections.

Speculation had intensified recently as the ruling government faced local anti-incumbency pressures alongside renewed political activity from the opposition bench. Some internal reports had even indicated a push from within certain sections of the high command, including Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, for a leadership revamp.

Balancing Caste Equations and Party Structure

The central leadership has navigated the situation cautiously to maintain political stability. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, 80, commands a powerful “Ahinda” support base—a coalition comprising minority communities, backward classes, and Dalits. This social alliance was crucial in helping the party navigate the traditional Vokkaliga and Lingayat caste dynamics during the 2023 elections.

Although the rotation issue had previously gained significant momentum when the government completed two years in office, the party high command had chosen to maintain the status quo to avoid any adverse electoral impact in neighboring assembly elections, such as in Tamil Nadu. With those elections concluded, supporters of the 64-year-old Deputy Chief Minister had expressed optimism for a transition. Shivakumar currently holds the dual responsibility of being the Deputy Chief Minister as well as the state Congress chief, signaling his critical organizational value to the party. However, for the time being, the party high command has firmly signaled that the current leadership structure will remain unchanged.

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Cricket news

Bowlers may hold the key in high-stakes IPL 2026 Qualifier 1 at Dharamsala

Although the media build-up centers on the batting heavyweight clash between Virat Kohli and Shubman Gill, the IPL 2026 Qualifier 1 in Dharamsala is set to be decided by the bowling consistency of Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Mohammed Siraj.

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Flat pitches, towering sixes, and relentless run-scoring have defined the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2026 so far. However, when Gujarat Titans (GT) and Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) lock horns in Qualifier 1 at the Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association (HPCA) Stadium in Dharamsala, the contest could ultimately hinge on the bowlers.

The HPCA Stadium has proved to be unforgiving for bowlers due to its short boundaries. A teaser of what could unfold was evident during recent net sessions, where Gujarat Titans’ Jos Buttler and Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s Tim David regularly launched monstrous hits out of the stadium. In the three matches played at this venue this season, teams crossed the 200-run mark five times, with the lowest score being 199/8. An average of nearly 25 maximums per match has been hit here, promising another potential run-fest.

Moving past the Kohli vs Gill narrative

While media attention focuses on the iconic battle between the ‘King’ Virat Kohli and the ‘Prince’ Shubman Gill—hailed as the heir to Indian cricket’s batting legacy—the true deciding factor might lie elsewhere. Both batters look in pristine touch. Gill occupies the second spot in the Orange Cap race with 616 runs from 13 matches, trailing behind his opening partner Sai Sudharsan. Meanwhile, Kohli has bounced back from a brief mid-tournament slump by smashing a sparkling century, taking his tally to 557 runs this season.

Despite the incredible batting firepower on display, the bowling units are expected to dictate which team blinks last. Media interactions with team managements highlighted that consistency and self-belief within the respective bowling departments have been the defining traits of both squads this season.

Powerplay battles to decide the finalist

For RCB, veteran pacer Bhuvneshwar Kumar leads the charge alongside Kagiso Rabada for GT, with both spearheads locked as the joint-highest wicket-takers across the two sides at 24 wickets each. Bhuvneshwar holds a slight edge due to a superior economy rate. Close behind them is GT’s Mohammed Siraj, who has taken 17 wickets so far. With supporting acts like Josh Hazlewood, Jason Holder, Prasidh Krishna, Rasikh Salam Dar, and spinners Rashid Khan and Krunal Pandya in the mix, the match promises an intriguing tactical battle.

Gujarat Titans’ assistant coach Vijay Dahiya acknowledged that negotiating Bhuvneshwar Kumar in the powerplay will be a massive task, but reminded that GT possesses equal firepower in Siraj and Rabada. “If you talk about the powerplay, our numbers are among the best in this tournament,” Dahiya stated.

RCB captain Rajat Patidar echoed similar views, placing immense faith in his bowling attack to stop GT’s prolific opening duo of Gill and Sudharsan. “Our strength is bowling. The way we bowl in the powerplay will be very crucial. We’ll look for early wickets and that is what we have done throughout the tournament,” Patidar remarked.

In a tournament dominated by towering batting displays, the team whose bowling unit holds its nerve under the Dharamsala lights will seal a direct spot in the IPL final.

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