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5 state elections: Exit poll projections range from a farce to the far-fetched

Pollsters run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advice “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets.

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By Neeraj Mishra

Every year, some states have elections and every year, a farcical drama is played out on television channels, for days adding up to the actual counting hour. Familiar faces create and discuss highly improbable situations, stereotyped characters indulge in violence of words and extravagant exaggeration.

It is all aimed at creating confusion in the voter’s mind, infusing satta markets with more punters and general joy at the expense of viewers. This year is no different. India Today thinks the BJP can get 162 seats in Madhya Pradesh bettering its previous tally by more than 50. It does not pause to think why and how this is possible. The perceived anti-incumbency of 20 years has been turned on its head and a Gujarat-like result is possible without a similar communal situation or voter mindset.

At the same time, there are three other channels which think it’s a close race giving an average of only 100 seats to the BJP, 16 short of majority. Psephology is now a full time business with at least a dozen big companies that employ innumerable fake scientists.

Some of these companies have taken this to the next level like Prashant Kishor. They run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advise “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets. Clearly, winning is the only thing that matters as stakes are too high and the prize is control over the entire system at the state level.

Back to the exit polls though, the song on Chhattisgarh is quite identical in every channel. Every psephologist worth his salt knows that the BJP was so far behind in 2018 at 15 seats compared to the Congress’ 70 that to recover and beat it would be next to impossible, so every channel has the Congress ahead. But in a house of 90 to say that BJP will get between 36-46 seats and Congress will get 40-50 seats is a joke at the very least.

It would mean both parties are forming the government and the researcher is not sure so he has played safe. Keeping a two per cent margin in predictions is absolutely unacceptable here, since traditionally the difference between the two parties has been less than 2 per cent, except in 2018. Even a 0.75 per cent difference in votes can lead to a BJP-50 and Congress-38 situation in 2013. So to say, the BJP can get between 36 to 46 seats is absurd.

It’s the difference between losing and forming the government. After having covered more than two dozen elections, one has seen that the safest way to predict results is based on the prevailing mood about three months before the elections are announced. Barring something as drastic as Pulwama, people are unlikely to change their mind at the last moment.

So to say all along the campaign period that such and such party is improving its position is mostly low conjecture. Another noticeable thing in this elections has been the freebies on offer by sitting governments in all states. Shivraj Singh Chouhan beat them all by announcing he would give Rs 3000 per month to every married woman if voted back to power.

He even delivered two installments during the campaign period while the Election Commission did nothing about it, it did stop K. Chandrashekhar Rao from dispensing his pro-farmer cash. So have the labharthis (beneficiaries) then appropriated this round of elections? They certainly have caused a major rift among psephologists.

The wide difference in their predictions is perhaps also caused by which set of Labharthi they talked to. Labharthis also tend to aggregate their votes regionally. For instance in famine-ridden Bundelkhand in Madhya Pradesh, Rs 3000 means a lot but not so much in more affluent Malwa-Nimad.

The Congress’ offer of loan waiver may trump the BJP’s offer of Rs 12000 per annum to every woman over 18 in the Chhattisgarh plains but in the hilly tribal areas, it still rings a bell. Exit poll is an effective salve to pacify nervous candidates and supporters. No one really remembers or credits the channels with anything even if they were spot on. It is only a three-day carnival and should be treated as such. Real life happens on counting day.

India News

LPU violence: Masks, iron rods and fire turn student protest violent

Violence erupted at Lovely Professional University in Punjab after an unverified social media claim about the alleged rape and suicide of a female student. Police registered an FIR and began investigating the incident.

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A protest at Lovely Professional University (LPU) in Punjab’s Phagwara escalated into violence after an unverified social media claim alleged that a female student had been raped and later died by suicide.

The allegation had not been confirmed by police when the protest began. LPU rejected the claim and described it as false and fabricated. The unrest later involved vandalism, fires and a blockade of National Highway-44 outside the university.

By Monday, September 28, security had been tightened around the campus, classes had been suspended for 10 days and students were leaving the university as parents arrived to take them home.

How the LPU protest began

The protest reportedly began near Girls’ Hostel-3 around 1 am on Sunday.

According to a student interviewed by media, students had received a message on Reddit claiming that a girl had been raped and subsequently died by suicide. The student said more people joined the protest after messages circulated among students.

However, police had not received or confirmed a rape complaint when the protest started. The allegation therefore remained unverified.

As more students gathered, the situation deteriorated.

Masks and iron rods seen during the unrest

Videos from the campus showed large numbers of people, with several individuals wearing masks.

Students interviewed after the violence said they were unable to establish whether everyone involved was a student or whether some people had entered the campus from outside.

One student also alleged that some people involved in the violence were carrying iron rods. These are accounts provided by students and should not be treated as an independently established identification of those responsible.

Police have been examining CCTV footage and investigating whether people from outside the university were involved.

Campus property damaged, fires reported

The unrest resulted in damage to university property, including smashed window panes and other vandalism. Some objects were also set on fire.

The violence extended beyond the campus, with protesters blocking National Highway-44, a major route connecting Jalandhar and Phagwara. The blockade continued for more than 15 hours before traffic was restored on Monday.

Other reporting also said vehicles and parts of buildings were damaged during the unrest.

Police registered FIR, special team formed

Punjab authorities moved to investigate the violence after the situation escalated.

Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann directed police authorities to take strict action against those responsible for the vandalism and arson. Punjab DGP Gaurav Yadav also visited the campus and reviewed the situation.

Police registered an FIR and formed a high-level Special Investigation Team to investigate the incident.

DGP Gaurav Yadav said the police had initially exercised restraint because students were involved in the protest. He said the authorities attempted to address students’ grievances through discussions.

What LPU said about the rape allegation

Lovely Professional University has denied that a female student was raped on the campus.

LPU Registrar Monica Gulati described the allegations as false, baseless and fabricated. The university also released a video featuring three female students from room 504 of a hostel, in which they said that no such incident had taken place in their room.

The video subsequently became controversial when the same students appeared in another video and alleged that they had been told what to say and that the video had been used without their consent.

These claims surrounding the video were circulating allegations and had not themselves been independently established in the report.

LPU classes suspended for 10 days

Following the violence, the university suspended classes for 10 days from September 28.

The university also postponed mid-term examinations until further notice, according to reporting on the situation.

Security was increased on the campus as students began leaving with their belongings and parents arrived to take them home.

What is known about the alleged rape-suicide claim?

At the time of the protests, police had not confirmed a rape complaint at LPU. The allegation had circulated through social media and among students but remained unverified.

LPU denied that the alleged incident had occurred. Police are investigating the violence and the circumstances surrounding the claims.

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India News

Supreme Court gives ECI four months to decide TMC name, symbol dispute

The Supreme Court has directed the Election Commission of India to decide the dispute over the All India Trinamool Congress name and ‘Flowers & Grass’ symbol within three months after completion of pleadings.

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The Supreme Court has directed the Election Commission of India (ECI) to decide the dispute over the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) name and its ‘Flowers & Grass’ election symbol within a defined timeline.

The order came while the court was hearing a plea filed by Mamata Banerjee challenging the Election Commission’s interim decision to freeze the use of the party’s original name and reserved symbol amid competing claims between rival factions.

The court has given the parties four weeks to complete their pleadings, including responses, affidavits and counter-affidavits. The ECI will then have three months to adjudicate the dispute. This effectively establishes a four-month timeline for completion of the process.

What did the Supreme Court direct?

The Supreme Court directed the contesting sides to place their responses and other documents on record within four weeks.

After the pleadings are completed, the Election Commission has been asked to take three months to decide the dispute concerning the party’s name and election symbol. The matter is being considered under Paragraph 15 of the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968.

The Supreme Court’s directions therefore provide a structured timeline for the ECI’s adjudication of the competing claims.

Why is the TMC name and symbol dispute before the Supreme Court?

The case follows an interim decision by the Election Commission in September to prevent the rival factions from using the All India Trinamool Congress name and the reserved ‘Flowers & Grass’ symbol while the competing claims are examined.

The Commission had said the dispute required a substantive determination under Paragraph 15 of the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968.

Mamata Banerjee subsequently approached the Supreme Court challenging the ECI’s interim arrangement. The Supreme Court is examining the challenge while the substantive dispute remains before the poll panel.

What names and symbols are being used temporarily?

Following the Election Commission’s interim decision, the two rival factions were allotted separate identities for the upcoming by-elections.

The faction led by Mamata Banerjee was allotted the name Mamata All India Trinamool Congress and the Football Player symbol. The rival faction was allotted the name Democratic Trinamool Congress and the Envelope symbol.

These are interim arrangements and do not amount to a final determination of which faction is entitled to the original AITC name and ‘Flowers & Grass’ symbol.

What happens next in the TMC symbol dispute?

The immediate next step is for the rival sides to complete their pleadings within four weeks.

Once that stage is completed, the ECI has three months to decide the dispute. The Supreme Court has thus effectively provided a four-month framework for the proceedings to reach a decision.

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Weather Tomorrow: Rain to ease in North India, heavy showers expected in South

The IMD has forecast easing rainfall across much of north India on September 29, while heavy to very heavy rain is expected in parts of southern India and showers will continue in the Northeast.

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Rain 2026

Rainfall activity across much of north India is expected to ease on Tuesday, September 29, while parts of southern India and the Northeast are likely to continue experiencing active weather.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest forecast on Monday evening, predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall in parts of southern India, along with continued showers in the Northeast and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

North India to see improving weather

Uttarakhand is expected to see a significant improvement in weather conditions on Tuesday. The IMD has not issued a heavy rain warning for the state.

Light to moderate rain is, however, likely at a few places in Uttarkashi, Rudraprayag, Chamoli, Bageshwar and Pithoragarh districts.

Himachal Pradesh may receive isolated rainfall, while Delhi, Haryana and Punjab are expected to remain largely dry.

The southwest monsoon’s withdrawal has reached Chandigarh, with the IMD expecting dry conditions across Delhi-NCR, Haryana and Punjab from September 29.

Uttar Pradesh is also likely to experience a gradual reduction in rainfall activity. The IMD has issued no warning for either eastern or western Uttar Pradesh for Tuesday, following several days of heavy rain that caused flooding and waterlogging in several districts.

Heavy rain forecast in parts of South India

South Interior Karnataka is likely to be the main focus in southern India on September 29, with the IMD forecasting very heavy rainfall along with thunderstorms and lightning.

Heavy rainfall activity in the region may continue through October 1.

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal are also expected to receive heavy rainfall from September 29, with the activity likely to continue through October 1.

Parts of Maharashtra could also experience storm activity. Madhya Maharashtra may see thunderstorms and lightning, while Konkan and Goa could also experience similar conditions.

Northeast likely to receive heavy rain

In the Northeast, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura are expected to receive heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning on September 29.

The IMD has forecast further heavy rainfall activity across the region on September 30.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are also likely to experience thunderstorms and lightning on Tuesday.

The IMD is monitoring a depression over the north Andaman Sea and adjoining Myanmar coast. According to the forecast, the system is expected to move towards the northeast Bay of Bengal and the Bangladesh coast.

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