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5 state elections: Exit poll projections range from a farce to the far-fetched

Pollsters run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advice “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets.

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By Neeraj Mishra

Every year, some states have elections and every year, a farcical drama is played out on television channels, for days adding up to the actual counting hour. Familiar faces create and discuss highly improbable situations, stereotyped characters indulge in violence of words and extravagant exaggeration.

It is all aimed at creating confusion in the voter’s mind, infusing satta markets with more punters and general joy at the expense of viewers. This year is no different. India Today thinks the BJP can get 162 seats in Madhya Pradesh bettering its previous tally by more than 50. It does not pause to think why and how this is possible. The perceived anti-incumbency of 20 years has been turned on its head and a Gujarat-like result is possible without a similar communal situation or voter mindset.

At the same time, there are three other channels which think it’s a close race giving an average of only 100 seats to the BJP, 16 short of majority. Psephology is now a full time business with at least a dozen big companies that employ innumerable fake scientists.

Some of these companies have taken this to the next level like Prashant Kishor. They run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advise “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets. Clearly, winning is the only thing that matters as stakes are too high and the prize is control over the entire system at the state level.

Back to the exit polls though, the song on Chhattisgarh is quite identical in every channel. Every psephologist worth his salt knows that the BJP was so far behind in 2018 at 15 seats compared to the Congress’ 70 that to recover and beat it would be next to impossible, so every channel has the Congress ahead. But in a house of 90 to say that BJP will get between 36-46 seats and Congress will get 40-50 seats is a joke at the very least.

It would mean both parties are forming the government and the researcher is not sure so he has played safe. Keeping a two per cent margin in predictions is absolutely unacceptable here, since traditionally the difference between the two parties has been less than 2 per cent, except in 2018. Even a 0.75 per cent difference in votes can lead to a BJP-50 and Congress-38 situation in 2013. So to say, the BJP can get between 36 to 46 seats is absurd.

It’s the difference between losing and forming the government. After having covered more than two dozen elections, one has seen that the safest way to predict results is based on the prevailing mood about three months before the elections are announced. Barring something as drastic as Pulwama, people are unlikely to change their mind at the last moment.

So to say all along the campaign period that such and such party is improving its position is mostly low conjecture. Another noticeable thing in this elections has been the freebies on offer by sitting governments in all states. Shivraj Singh Chouhan beat them all by announcing he would give Rs 3000 per month to every married woman if voted back to power.

He even delivered two installments during the campaign period while the Election Commission did nothing about it, it did stop K. Chandrashekhar Rao from dispensing his pro-farmer cash. So have the labharthis (beneficiaries) then appropriated this round of elections? They certainly have caused a major rift among psephologists.

The wide difference in their predictions is perhaps also caused by which set of Labharthi they talked to. Labharthis also tend to aggregate their votes regionally. For instance in famine-ridden Bundelkhand in Madhya Pradesh, Rs 3000 means a lot but not so much in more affluent Malwa-Nimad.

The Congress’ offer of loan waiver may trump the BJP’s offer of Rs 12000 per annum to every woman over 18 in the Chhattisgarh plains but in the hilly tribal areas, it still rings a bell. Exit poll is an effective salve to pacify nervous candidates and supporters. No one really remembers or credits the channels with anything even if they were spot on. It is only a three-day carnival and should be treated as such. Real life happens on counting day.

2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Sunita Kejriwal holds maiden Lok Sabha election roadshow in Delhi

Sunita Kejriwal will also hold a road show in West Delhi Lok Sabha constituency on Sunday. AAP party leaders said Sunita Kejriwal will also spearhead the campaign for AAP candidates in South Delhi and New Delhi constituencies as well as in Haryana, Gujarat and Punjab.

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Aam Aadmi Party began its campaign for 3rd phase of Lok Sabha elections 2024 on Saturday with Sunita Kejriwal, wife of jailed Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal holding a roadshow in Delhi. In a massive rally, Sunita Kejriwal was be seen standing on a vehicle holding her hands and greeting the people of the area. AAP’s East Delhi candidate Kuldeep Kumar was seen sitting on the vehicle as he showcased a portrait of Rani Laxmibai.

Earlier ahead of Sunita Kejrieal’s roadshow, Kuldeep Kumar told the media that Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal who worked to provide the best school, and free- electricity to the people of Delhi has been framed in a fake case by BJP. Kumar further added that from today onwards Sunita Kejriwal’s roadshow will start and she is going to seek support and blessings from the Delhi people to continue its fight against the BJP government.

Aam Aadmi Party workers also staged a protest under the banner of Jail ka jawab vote se near Delhi’s Lakshmi Nagar area on Saturday against the arrest of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal in connection with an excise policy case.

After the Delhi CM’s arrest by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in the liquor policy case in March, Sunita Kejriwal has taken up a more prominent role in campaigning activities for the Aam Aadmi Party. Since the Delhi CM’s arrest, Atishi and other AAP leaders have alleged that the arrest was made so that to the AAP Supremo can be prevented from campaigning for the Lok Sabha elections. Arvind Kejriwal has been sent to judicial custody until May 7.

Sunita Kejriwal will also hold a road show in West Delhi Lok Sabha constituency on Sunday. AAP party leaders said Sunita Kejriwal will also spearhead the campaign for AAP candidates in South Delhi and New Delhi constituencies as well as in Haryana, Gujarat and Punjab. She is emerging as a star campaigner for Aam Aadmi Party.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Mallikarjun Kharge says candidates for Amethi, Rae Bareli seats in Uttar Pradesh will be announced in a few days

On being asked about the names of the candidates for Amethi and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituencies Mallikarjun Kharge said the people will have to wait for a few more days. He said when the names of candidates come from people to him and he will sign the notification, then the announcement will be made.

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Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge on Saturday said that the candidates for prestigious Amethi and Rae Bareli seats in Uttar Pradesh will be announced in a few days. He was addressing a press conference where he claimed that though the BJP says the corrupt must be put in jails, when leaders facing corruption charges join the saffron party, they are put on the lap and sent to Rajya Sabha or assembly.

On being asked about the names of the candidates for Amethi and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituencies he said the people will have to wait for a few more days. He said when the names of candidates come from people to him and he will sign the notification, then the announcement will be made.

On being questioned about Congress leaders changing constituencies Kharge asked how many times have Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani changed their seats. His response came when asked about the BJP criticising Rahul Gandhi for fighting the elections from Kerala’s Wayanad instead of Amethi. Referring to Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, Kharge said the Congress is not affected by people who grew up in the party and left it later.

The Congress president launched an all round attack on the BJP and PM Modi and said the prime minister did not implement even one of his electoral promises and still says Modi did a lot of work for the country. Addressing the press conference he said the BJP never fought for the independence of India, but Congress is a party of those who made India independent. He said the BJP never fought for the independence of India, for the development of India. The Congress President said the BJP speaks so much about patriotism and that the contribution of Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Lal Bahadur Shastri is nothing before them.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Priyanka Gandhi accuses BJP of planning to change the Constitution, criticises PM Modi for inflation

Priyanka Gandhi was speaking at an election rally at Dharampur village of tribal dominated Valsad district held in support of Congress candidate for ST-reserved Valsad Lok Sabha seat, Anant Patel.

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Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi on Saturday said the BJP may be denying it now, but the party will change the Constitution if it returns to power. She targeted Prime Minister Narendra Modi over inflation and called him the mehengai man.

Gandhi said the BJP leaders and candidates are saying that they will change the Constitution. She said PM Modi is denying it and this is BJP’s tactic. Priyanka Gandhi was speaking at an election rally at Dharampur village of tribal dominated Valsad district, Gujarat held in support of Congress candidate for ST-reserved Valsad Lok Sabha seat, Anant Patel.

Gandhi said first the BJP will deny what they want to do. But after coming to power they will implement it. She further added the BJP wants to change the constitution to weaken the common people and deprive them of their rights given in the Constitution. She said the BJP leaders project the Prime Minister as powerful and say that chutki bajake ladai rukwa dete hai (he can stop the Russia- Ukraine war with the snap of his fingers). She asked why is Prime Minister unable to remove poverty just like that?

Priyanka Gandhi claimed the tribal population in Gujarat which is Modi’s home state and the whole country is suffering from issues like rising inflation, unemployment, low remumberation, loss of land, violence against women and other atrocities. She highlighted the Congress manifesto and said it addresses issues faced by the tribal population.

She assured the people that the Congress will bring schemes like MGNREGA for urban areas where families will get 100 days of guaranteed work. She said the Congress is committed to filing about 30 lakh vacancies in government jobs, providing subsidised diesel to fishermen and take the minimum wage to Rs 400. Gandhi said the Congress is going to work out sub plans for Scheduled Tribes and scheduled castes.

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