English हिन्दी
Connect with us

India News

5 state elections: Exit poll projections range from a farce to the far-fetched

Pollsters run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advice “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets.

Published

3 years ago

on

By Neeraj Mishra

Every year, some states have elections and every year, a farcical drama is played out on television channels, for days adding up to the actual counting hour. Familiar faces create and discuss highly improbable situations, stereotyped characters indulge in violence of words and extravagant exaggeration.

It is all aimed at creating confusion in the voter’s mind, infusing satta markets with more punters and general joy at the expense of viewers. This year is no different. India Today thinks the BJP can get 162 seats in Madhya Pradesh bettering its previous tally by more than 50. It does not pause to think why and how this is possible. The perceived anti-incumbency of 20 years has been turned on its head and a Gujarat-like result is possible without a similar communal situation or voter mindset.

At the same time, there are three other channels which think it’s a close race giving an average of only 100 seats to the BJP, 16 short of majority. Psephology is now a full time business with at least a dozen big companies that employ innumerable fake scientists.

Some of these companies have taken this to the next level like Prashant Kishor. They run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advise “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets. Clearly, winning is the only thing that matters as stakes are too high and the prize is control over the entire system at the state level.

Back to the exit polls though, the song on Chhattisgarh is quite identical in every channel. Every psephologist worth his salt knows that the BJP was so far behind in 2018 at 15 seats compared to the Congress’ 70 that to recover and beat it would be next to impossible, so every channel has the Congress ahead. But in a house of 90 to say that BJP will get between 36-46 seats and Congress will get 40-50 seats is a joke at the very least.

It would mean both parties are forming the government and the researcher is not sure so he has played safe. Keeping a two per cent margin in predictions is absolutely unacceptable here, since traditionally the difference between the two parties has been less than 2 per cent, except in 2018. Even a 0.75 per cent difference in votes can lead to a BJP-50 and Congress-38 situation in 2013. So to say, the BJP can get between 36 to 46 seats is absurd.

It’s the difference between losing and forming the government. After having covered more than two dozen elections, one has seen that the safest way to predict results is based on the prevailing mood about three months before the elections are announced. Barring something as drastic as Pulwama, people are unlikely to change their mind at the last moment.

So to say all along the campaign period that such and such party is improving its position is mostly low conjecture. Another noticeable thing in this elections has been the freebies on offer by sitting governments in all states. Shivraj Singh Chouhan beat them all by announcing he would give Rs 3000 per month to every married woman if voted back to power.

He even delivered two installments during the campaign period while the Election Commission did nothing about it, it did stop K. Chandrashekhar Rao from dispensing his pro-farmer cash. So have the labharthis (beneficiaries) then appropriated this round of elections? They certainly have caused a major rift among psephologists.

The wide difference in their predictions is perhaps also caused by which set of Labharthi they talked to. Labharthis also tend to aggregate their votes regionally. For instance in famine-ridden Bundelkhand in Madhya Pradesh, Rs 3000 means a lot but not so much in more affluent Malwa-Nimad.

The Congress’ offer of loan waiver may trump the BJP’s offer of Rs 12000 per annum to every woman over 18 in the Chhattisgarh plains but in the hilly tribal areas, it still rings a bell. Exit poll is an effective salve to pacify nervous candidates and supporters. No one really remembers or credits the channels with anything even if they were spot on. It is only a three-day carnival and should be treated as such. Real life happens on counting day.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

India News

3 dead, several trapped after six-storey building collapses in Delhi, rescue operations continue

Three people died and two were critically injured after a six-storey PG building collapsed in Delhi’s Satya Niketan. Several others are feared trapped.

Published

1 hour ago

on

September 6, 2026

By

Three people have died and two others are critically injured after a six-storey building collapsed in Delhi’s Satya Niketan on Sunday afternoon. Several more people are feared trapped under the debris as rescue operations continue at the site.

Nine people have been rescued so far, while authorities are searching for others who may still be trapped. The building, which was being used as a 75-bed paying guest accommodation, collapsed at around 1:30 pm, according to officials.

Building was being used as a PG accommodation

According to police, the building was around 40 to 50 years old and consisted of a basement and five upper floors. It was being used as a paying guest accommodation, with repair work reportedly underway in the basement when the collapse occurred.

The building was located in Satya Niketan, near Delhi University’s South Campus, an area with a large student population.

An eyewitness said at least 50 students were believed to have been inside the building when it collapsed. A student at the scene also reported hearing cries for help from beneath the rubble.

Rescue operation underway

Teams from the Delhi Police, National Disaster Response Force, Delhi Fire Service and Delhi Disaster Management Authority have been deployed for the rescue operation.

At least 12 fire tenders have been sent to the spot. An excavator has also been deployed, while additional machinery is being brought in to remove concrete slabs and girders from the debris.

Locals were also seen helping with the initial search before rescue teams and machinery reached the site.

The adjacent building has been vacated as a precautionary measure, Delhi Chief Minister Rekha Gupta said. She added that rescue work was being carried out on a war footing and that authorities were coordinating efforts to assist those affected.

Government agencies coordinate rescue efforts

Delhi Lieutenant Governor Taranjit Singh Sandhu said concerned agencies, including the Delhi Police, Delhi Fire Service and DDMA, had been directed to work together to ensure swift rescue operations.

Local BJP MLA Anil Sharma, who was at the site, said some students were still believed to be trapped and that some were reportedly making calls from inside the collapsed structure.

AAP leader Saurabh Bharadwaj blamed alleged corruption for the incident and raised questions about building safety and inspections. His comments were political allegations and no official cause for the collapse has been established in the report.

Continue Reading

India News

PM Modi takes aim at critics with Dimagi Naxal remark at SRCC centenary address

PM Modi revived his dimagi Naxal remark at SRCC’s centenary celebrations and spoke about India’s development journey.

Published

10 hours ago

on

September 6, 2026

By

PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi revived his ‘dimagi Naxal’ remark while addressing the centenary celebrations of Shri Ram College of Commerce (SRCC) in Delhi on Saturday, using the term to criticise his opponents.

Speaking to students at the Delhi college, PM Modi described the phrase as a “homeopathic pill” and said it had prompted those he described as “dimagi Naxals” to come forward and reveal their views.

The prime minister also used his address to speak to Gen-Z about India’s development journey and asked students to consider the challenges the country had faced in the past.

PM Modi recalls past crises

During his speech, PM Modi referred to the 2013 Kedarnath disaster and the 2008 global financial crisis while criticising the handling of national emergencies by previous governments.

He said the government at the time of the Kedarnath disaster was shaken and questioned its ability to respond to the crisis.

Referring to the 2008 banking crisis, PM Modi alleged that the government of the time failed to effectively deal with the situation and claimed that India’s banking system was pushed close to collapse.

Prime minister lists challenges faced by his government

PM Modi also highlighted several major global crises that occurred during his government’s tenure.

He mentioned the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, disruptions to global trade and supply chains, and the crisis in West Asia.

The prime minister said there had been concerns that India would struggle during these crises but argued that the country had continued to move forward.

PM Modi’s earlier SRCC visit

PM Modi had earlier visited SRCC in 2013, when he was the chief minister of Gujarat. His speech at the college received significant attention, particularly on social media, ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha election.

His latest visit came during the college’s centenary celebrations, where his address focused on young people, India’s development ambitions and the challenges faced by the country.

Continue Reading

India News

India Metro Rail Network May Overtake US in 2 Years

India’s metro rail network has reached 1,170 km across 26 cities. Union minister Manohar Lal said the country could overtake the US in network length within two years.

Published

24 hours ago

on

September 5, 2026

By

Manohar Lal Khattar

India is on track to become the country with the second-largest metro rail network in the world after China, with Union Minister Manohar Lal saying the country could overtake the United States within the next two years.

India’s metro rail network has now expanded to 1,170 km across 26 cities. The network is only 216 km shorter than the US metro rail network, which stands at 1,386 km, according to figures cited by the minister.

India’s metro network expands rapidly

Speaking after the inauguration of an extended metro service in Indore, Manohar Lal highlighted the pace at which metro connectivity has grown in India.

He said metro services were operational across just 245 km in five cities when Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed office in 2014. The network has since expanded to 1,170 km across 26 cities.

The minister said India could overtake the US in terms of metro rail network length in the next two years and become the world’s second-largest country in this segment after China.

China currently has around 8,000 km of metro rail lines, according to the figures cited by the minister.

Indore metro extension inaugurated

The minister made the remarks after inaugurating an extended section of the Indore metro. The project was built at a cost of around Rs 2,850 crore.

The Indore metro was earlier operating commercially on a six-km stretch between Gandhi Nagar and Super Corridor-3 stations. Following the extension, the service will operate on a 17-km route between Gandhi Nagar and Malviya Nagar Chauraha.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav said the metro service would mark a new phase in Indore’s development. He also said the network would eventually be extended to Ujjain and other nearby areas.

India’s metro rail network: Key figures

  • India currently has 1,170 km of operational metro rail network.
  • Metro services are operational across 26 cities.
  • The US has around 1,386 km of metro rail network.
  • India is currently 216 km behind the US.
  • China has around 8,000 km of metro rail lines.
  • India’s operational network stood at 245 km across five cities in 2014.

Continue Reading

Trending

© Copyright 2022 APNLIVE.com