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First phase of Gujarat polls will make or mar Cong prospects

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The first phase covers the area which yielded BJP its majority of seats in 2012; it is also the region where the leaders of the Patidar-OBC-Dalit combine ranged against BJP wield greater influence in the state.

The first phase of keenly watched, keenly contested elections to Gujarat Assembly began on Saturday with enthusiastic voter turnout (35.52% till 2 pm) recorded from the start. Polling is being held in 89 of the total 182 constituencies with 977 candidates in the fray.

The BJP faces its most serious challenge in Gujarat in the years from 1995 that it has been in power in the state: apart from 22 years of incumbency, there are the factor of alienated sections of Patidars, OBCs and Dalits ranged against it, the discontent of farmers and the disquiet among the traders and small entrepreneurs over GST and demonetisation which has hurt them badly.

The BJP is primarily banking on the stature and appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to win back the state.

The Congress kept away from talking about Muslims and minorities, focusing more on other aspects. It had the Modi government and BJP on the defensive over Rafale deal, alleging that purchase of the fighter aircraft was overpriced and meant to benefit one industrial house. It also talked about the business deals of BJP president Amit Shah’s son Jay Shah.

While the opposition sought to focus on shortcomings and failures of the BJP, the BJP tried to deflect attention and win back the initiative in setting the agenda for discourse. A high-pitched campaign marked the electioneering that got shriller as the polling day approached – and seemed likely to go on till it comes to an end to days before the second and final phase of election on Dec 14.

The BJP, reputed for its organised, methodical functioning, was so caught up in this that it forgot to come up with a manifesto for the elections. It hurriedly put together and announced a ‘vision document’ – after Patidar leader Hardik Patel’s taunt: that the BJP was so busy making sex CDs (about him) that it forgot to prepare an election manifesto.

In the final days, the BJP managed to make the poll campaign a contest between Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with the latter turning it into a question of his personal honour linking it to Gujarat’s prestige in the final stages. If people had forgotten, he revived their memory, listing all the epithets used for him by different Congress leaders. For Rahul Gandhi and Congress, Modi used names of various Muslim rulers of the past. Whether this clicks with the electorate or not, it is widely acknowledged that Modi’s personal stature and appeal remains intact among the voters of the state.

This translates into election results – gain or loss of seats – being viewed as a reflection on how far the Modi magic worked.

Of the 89 seats that saw polling in the first phase on Saturday, the BJP won 63 in the last state elections held in 2012: it has been stronger in this part of the state. The Congress had won only 22 of the seats here, 1 JD(U), 1 NCP, 2 GPP (Gujarat Parivartan Party) while the remaining went to others.

The areas going to polls are spread over Kutch, Saurashtra and south Gujarat, covering 19 districts of Kutch, Morbi, Jamnagar, Surendranagar, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Rajkot, Botad, Porbandar, Junagadh, Amreli, Gir Somnath, Bhavnagar, Bharuch, Narmada, Surat, Tapi, Navsari, Dang and Valsad.

For the BJP, this phase is crucial since it was this region where its success rate has been highest. Of its total tally of 115 in 2012, 63 came from this part of the state. Of the remaining 93 seats to go to polls on Dec 14, it got 52 – still a majority, but a narrower margin, with Congress winning in 39 constituencies to take its total to 61 seats.

This also the where the actual test of the influence of the three leaders, Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani, from Patidar, OBC and Dalit communities, respectively, will be. This is where they, especially Patels, have greatest presence. Thakor has greater influence in north Gujarat where polling would be held on Dec 14.

In particular, Hardik Patel’s influence would be tested in Saurashstra where Patidars are said to have 35 to 40 per cent of vote share. GST impact, if any, would be seen in Surat. The BJP held 15 of the 16 seats in Surat. The area with dominant presence of diamond merchants had witnessed massive protests against the tax reform.

The Saurashtra region will see some more high profile battles involving cabinet minister Babubhai Bokhiria, Arjun Modhwadia of Congress and former finance and power minister Saurabh Patel.

The most significant contest is for the seat held by Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, Rajkot West. Rupani is pitted against Congress candidate Indraneel Rajyaguru, the outgoing MLA from Rajkot East.

Another interesting battle would be for the Dhoraji seat, where Hardik Patel’s key aide, Lalit Vasoya, has been fielded by the Congress’ ticket. Vasoya will be taking on veteran BJP leader and former Lok Sabha MP Harilal Patel on this Patel community-dominated Assembly constituency in Rajkot district. Dhoraji is the only Assembly constituency on which Congress has fielded a leader from Hardik Patel-led Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS).

Other areas to be watched include Bharuch – the backyard of Ahmad Patel, the Congress leader wielding an influence in the party disproportionate to his popular standing. The Congress was wiped out in the area, failing to win any of its 5 constituencies in 2012.

Valsad, also with five seats, would also need watching – rallies of Modi and BJP president Amit Shah in this part were a dismal flop. The Congress had won two of the seats there in 2012.

Somnath, too falls in the first phase. Rahul Gandhi’s visit to Somnath and the party’s ‘faux pas’, in entering his name in the visitor’s register meant for non-Hindus, was raked up by the BJP and Modi who went on to equate him with various Muslim rulers of the past. The Congress had won two of the three seats there.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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BJP raises seat offer to Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena to nearly 90 ahead of Mumbai civic polls, talks continue

The BJP has raised its seat offer to Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena to nearly 90 for the upcoming BMC elections, but fresh talks are needed as differences persist within the Mahayuti.

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With the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections drawing closer, the seat-sharing tussle within the Mahayuti alliance continues, with the BJP increasing its offer to Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena but failing to reach the party’s expectations.

According to sources, the BJP has now proposed close to 90 seats for the Shinde faction in the upcoming Mumbai civic polls. This is a significant jump from its earlier offer of 52 seats but still falls short of what Shinde is seeking. The Shiv Sena leader has reportedly reduced his demand from an initial 125 seats to 112, yet remains dissatisfied with the latest formula.

Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is expected to hold another round of discussions with Shinde to break the deadlock. Sources indicate that the BJP is unlikely to stretch its offer much further, especially after its strong showing in recent statewide local body elections.

BJP firm after strong local poll performance

The BJP has emerged as the single largest party in the recent local polls, securing 117 municipal president posts. In comparison, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena won 53 posts, while Ajit Pawar’s faction of the NCP secured 37. These results have strengthened the BJP’s negotiating position ahead of the BMC elections.

However, the current seat-sharing calculations could change if Ajit Pawar decides to contest the Mumbai civic polls as part of the alliance. Senior NCP leader Sunil Tatkare confirmed that no final decision has been taken yet, noting that discussions with alliance partners are ongoing.

Nawab Malik factor complicates alliance talks

A major point of contention within the Mahayuti is the issue of senior NCP leader Nawab Malik, who is facing multiple corruption cases, including a money laundering case linked to underworld activities. While the alliance has made it clear that Malik is unacceptable as part of its Mumbai setup, Ajit Pawar is reportedly firm on backing him.

Mumbai BJP chief Ameet Satam has publicly stated that the party would not align with any group that includes Malik. Sources added that if the NCP joins the alliance in Mumbai, it may be asked to project a different leader and contest a limited number of seats.

BMC elections timeline

The countdown to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections has already begun, with less than a month left for polling. Voting is scheduled for January 15, with counting set to take place the following day. A total of 2,869 municipal seats will be contested, including 227 seats in the BMC.

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Yogi Adityanath’s do namoone remark sparks Akhilesh Yadav’s jab on BJP infighting

Yogi Adityanath’s ‘do namoone’ comment in the UP Assembly has been countered by Akhilesh Yadav, who termed it a confession of BJP’s internal power struggle.

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Yogi Adityanath

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s recent “do namoone” comment in the state Assembly has triggered a sharp political exchange, with Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav turning the remark into an attack on the Bharatiya Janata Party’s alleged internal discord.

The comment was made during a heated Assembly discussion on allegations of codeine cough syrup smuggling in Uttar Pradesh. Opposition members had accused the state government of inaction, claiming that timely steps could have saved the lives of several children. Rejecting the allegation outright, Adityanath said that no child in the state had died due to consumption of the cough syrup.

While responding to the opposition benches, the Chief Minister made an indirect jibe, saying there were “two namoone”, one in Delhi and one in Lucknow. Without naming anyone, he added that one of them leaves the country whenever there is a national debate, and suggested that a similar pattern applied to the Samajwadi Party leadership. The remark was widely interpreted as being aimed at Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav, a former Uttar Pradesh chief minister and current Lok Sabha MP

Akhilesh Yadav calls remark a ‘confession’

Akhilesh Yadav responded swiftly on social media, calling Adityanath’s statement a “confession” that exposed an alleged power struggle within the BJP. He said that those holding constitutional posts should maintain decorum and accused the ruling party of bringing its internal disputes into the public domain. Yadav posted his response shortly after the Chief Minister shared a video clip of the Assembly remarks online.

The Samajwadi Party has, on several occasions, claimed that there is a tussle between the Uttar Pradesh government and the BJP’s central leadership. Party leaders have cited the appointment of deputy chief ministers and certain bureaucratic decisions as evidence of attempts to curtail the Chief Minister’s authority.

Adityanath has consistently dismissed these claims, maintaining that he holds the post because of the party’s trust in him. The latest exchange has once again brought the narrative of BJP infighting into political focus, even as both sides continue to trade barbs ahead of key electoral contests

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Sonia Gandhi calls weakening of MGNREGA a collective moral failure, targets Centre in op-ed

Sonia Gandhi has accused the Centre of weakening MGNREGA, calling it a collective moral failure with serious consequences for crores of working people.

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Sonia Gandhi

Congress Parliamentary Party chairperson Sonia Gandhi has sharply criticised the Central government over what she described as the steady dismantling of rights-based legislation, with a particular focus on the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA).

In a recent opinion article published in a leading English daily, Sonia Gandhi argued that MGNREGA was envisioned as more than a welfare measure. She said the rural employment scheme gave legal backing to the constitutional right to work and was rooted in Mahatma Gandhi’s idea of Sarvodaya, or welfare for all.

Calling its weakening a serious failure, she wrote that the decline of MGNREGA represents a “collective moral failure” that will have lasting financial and human consequences for crores of working people across India. She stressed that safeguarding such rights-based frameworks is crucial at a time when, according to her, multiple protections are under strain.

Concerns raised over education, environment and land laws

Sonia Gandhi also flagged concerns beyond rural employment. Referring to education policy, she claimed that the Right to Education has been undermined following the National Education Policy 2020, alleging that it has led to the closure of around one lakh primary schools across the country.

On environmental and land-related legislation, she stated that the Forest Rights Act, 2006, was weakened through the Forest (Conservation) Rules, 2022. According to her, these changes removed the role of the gram sabha in decisions related to the diversion of forest land.

She further alleged that the Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act has been significantly diluted, while adding that the National Green Tribunal has seen its authority reduced over the years.

Warning on agriculture and food security laws

Touching upon agriculture reforms, Sonia Gandhi referred to the now-repealed three farm laws, claiming they were an attempt to deny farmers the right to a minimum support price. She also cautioned that the National Food Security Act, 2013, could face similar threats in the future.

Reiterating her central argument, she urged unity to protect statutory rights, stating that the erosion of such laws has implications that extend well beyond policy, affecting livelihoods and dignity on the ground.

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