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First phase of Gujarat polls will make or mar Cong prospects

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The first phase covers the area which yielded BJP its majority of seats in 2012; it is also the region where the leaders of the Patidar-OBC-Dalit combine ranged against BJP wield greater influence in the state.

The first phase of keenly watched, keenly contested elections to Gujarat Assembly began on Saturday with enthusiastic voter turnout (35.52% till 2 pm) recorded from the start. Polling is being held in 89 of the total 182 constituencies with 977 candidates in the fray.

The BJP faces its most serious challenge in Gujarat in the years from 1995 that it has been in power in the state: apart from 22 years of incumbency, there are the factor of alienated sections of Patidars, OBCs and Dalits ranged against it, the discontent of farmers and the disquiet among the traders and small entrepreneurs over GST and demonetisation which has hurt them badly.

The BJP is primarily banking on the stature and appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to win back the state.

The Congress kept away from talking about Muslims and minorities, focusing more on other aspects. It had the Modi government and BJP on the defensive over Rafale deal, alleging that purchase of the fighter aircraft was overpriced and meant to benefit one industrial house. It also talked about the business deals of BJP president Amit Shah’s son Jay Shah.

While the opposition sought to focus on shortcomings and failures of the BJP, the BJP tried to deflect attention and win back the initiative in setting the agenda for discourse. A high-pitched campaign marked the electioneering that got shriller as the polling day approached – and seemed likely to go on till it comes to an end to days before the second and final phase of election on Dec 14.

The BJP, reputed for its organised, methodical functioning, was so caught up in this that it forgot to come up with a manifesto for the elections. It hurriedly put together and announced a ‘vision document’ – after Patidar leader Hardik Patel’s taunt: that the BJP was so busy making sex CDs (about him) that it forgot to prepare an election manifesto.

In the final days, the BJP managed to make the poll campaign a contest between Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with the latter turning it into a question of his personal honour linking it to Gujarat’s prestige in the final stages. If people had forgotten, he revived their memory, listing all the epithets used for him by different Congress leaders. For Rahul Gandhi and Congress, Modi used names of various Muslim rulers of the past. Whether this clicks with the electorate or not, it is widely acknowledged that Modi’s personal stature and appeal remains intact among the voters of the state.

This translates into election results – gain or loss of seats – being viewed as a reflection on how far the Modi magic worked.

Of the 89 seats that saw polling in the first phase on Saturday, the BJP won 63 in the last state elections held in 2012: it has been stronger in this part of the state. The Congress had won only 22 of the seats here, 1 JD(U), 1 NCP, 2 GPP (Gujarat Parivartan Party) while the remaining went to others.

The areas going to polls are spread over Kutch, Saurashtra and south Gujarat, covering 19 districts of Kutch, Morbi, Jamnagar, Surendranagar, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Rajkot, Botad, Porbandar, Junagadh, Amreli, Gir Somnath, Bhavnagar, Bharuch, Narmada, Surat, Tapi, Navsari, Dang and Valsad.

For the BJP, this phase is crucial since it was this region where its success rate has been highest. Of its total tally of 115 in 2012, 63 came from this part of the state. Of the remaining 93 seats to go to polls on Dec 14, it got 52 – still a majority, but a narrower margin, with Congress winning in 39 constituencies to take its total to 61 seats.

This also the where the actual test of the influence of the three leaders, Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani, from Patidar, OBC and Dalit communities, respectively, will be. This is where they, especially Patels, have greatest presence. Thakor has greater influence in north Gujarat where polling would be held on Dec 14.

In particular, Hardik Patel’s influence would be tested in Saurashstra where Patidars are said to have 35 to 40 per cent of vote share. GST impact, if any, would be seen in Surat. The BJP held 15 of the 16 seats in Surat. The area with dominant presence of diamond merchants had witnessed massive protests against the tax reform.

The Saurashtra region will see some more high profile battles involving cabinet minister Babubhai Bokhiria, Arjun Modhwadia of Congress and former finance and power minister Saurabh Patel.

The most significant contest is for the seat held by Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, Rajkot West. Rupani is pitted against Congress candidate Indraneel Rajyaguru, the outgoing MLA from Rajkot East.

Another interesting battle would be for the Dhoraji seat, where Hardik Patel’s key aide, Lalit Vasoya, has been fielded by the Congress’ ticket. Vasoya will be taking on veteran BJP leader and former Lok Sabha MP Harilal Patel on this Patel community-dominated Assembly constituency in Rajkot district. Dhoraji is the only Assembly constituency on which Congress has fielded a leader from Hardik Patel-led Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS).

Other areas to be watched include Bharuch – the backyard of Ahmad Patel, the Congress leader wielding an influence in the party disproportionate to his popular standing. The Congress was wiped out in the area, failing to win any of its 5 constituencies in 2012.

Valsad, also with five seats, would also need watching – rallies of Modi and BJP president Amit Shah in this part were a dismal flop. The Congress had won two of the seats there in 2012.

Somnath, too falls in the first phase. Rahul Gandhi’s visit to Somnath and the party’s ‘faux pas’, in entering his name in the visitor’s register meant for non-Hindus, was raked up by the BJP and Modi who went on to equate him with various Muslim rulers of the past. The Congress had won two of the three seats there.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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BJP to launch 5,000-km Parivartan Yatra across West Bengal ahead of Assembly elections

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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will begin its large-scale ‘Parivartan Yatra’ in poll-bound West Bengal from Sunday, marking a major political outreach drive ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections.

The party said the campaign is designed to mobilise support across the state and counter what it alleges has been more than a decade of “corrupt, undemocratic, and anti-people governance” under the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC).

Statewide mobilisation across nine divisions

According to party leaders, the Yatra will be conducted simultaneously in all nine organisational divisions of West Bengal. The outreach programme is expected to cover nearly 5,000 kilometres, passing through 38 organisational districts and more than 230 Assembly constituencies.

The BJP estimates the initiative will generate over one crore direct public touchpoints, focusing heavily on face-to-face interactions and grassroots engagement. As part of the campaign plan, the party has scheduled 63 large rallies and 281 welcome meetings at key entry points of Assembly constituencies.

With the slogan “Paltano Dorkar, Chai BJP Sorkar”, the party has framed the Yatra as both an electoral campaign and a broader political movement aimed at strengthening its organisational presence across the state.

Focus on governance, law and order, and corruption

The party’s messaging during the Yatra will centre on governance, accountability, and systemic reforms. BJP leaders plan to raise concerns related to women’s safety, alleged corruption in the education sector, including teacher recruitment issues, and what they describe as threats to national security.

Party sources indicated that demographic changes, illegal infiltration, and the presence of extremist elements in border districts will also be key themes during the campaign.

In rural areas, the outreach will emphasise agricultural infrastructure, implementation of centrally sponsored schemes, and removal of intermediaries. In urban regions, the narrative will focus on industrial development, youth employment, and improvements in urban transport systems.

Senior leaders to participate

More than 100 senior leaders from the central and state units are expected to be involved in the Yatra. The inaugural phase, scheduled for Sunday and Monday, will feature five launch events on the first day and four on the second.

Senior BJP leaders including Amit Shah, JP Nadda, Rajnath Singh, Dharmendra Pradhan, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, and Nitin Nabin are expected to attend various programmes during the campaign.

After a short break for Holi, the Yatra will resume from March 5 to March 10, with each unit operating for approximately nine hours daily. The campaign is set to culminate in a major public meeting at Kolkata’s Brigade Ground, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to address supporters.

The BJP is positioning the Parivartan Yatra as a significant step in reshaping the political landscape of West Bengal as the state moves closer to the Assembly elections.

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BJP alliances in Assam likely to be sealed by March 10

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Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has indicated that the alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is expected to be finalised by March 10 ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections.

The AGP, a long-time ally of the BJP in Assam, is also a founding member of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Discussions between the partners are progressing, with indications that the formal announcement could come within days.

Sources said there could be “friendly fights” between the BJP and AGP in a few constituencies. Such arrangements may be considered to accommodate local-level aspirations and party workers from both sides.

The BJP is also likely to conclude seat-sharing discussions with the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) by March 10. In the previous Assembly election, the BPF had aligned with the Indian National Congress (Congress), but it has now returned to the NDA fold.

However, seat-sharing talks between the BJP and its other Bodoland-region partner, the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), are reportedly facing hurdles. Earlier, Mr Sarma had stated that the UPPL would not join hands with the Congress.

On the opposition side, the Congress is dealing with its own alliance challenges. Negotiations with Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal are underway, but sources suggested that discussions have not been progressing smoothly.

Congress sources said seat-sharing arrangements with the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Left parties are almost finalised. An official announcement is awaited from the party’s high command.

As political negotiations intensify, both the ruling NDA and the opposition camp are working to conclude alliances and seat-sharing deals in the run-up to the state polls.

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Ajit Pawar’s son seeks detailed probe into Baramati plane crash

Jay Pawar has demanded a comprehensive probe and action against the aviation firm after the Baramati plane crash that killed Ajit Pawar and four others.

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Jay Pawar, the younger son of Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, has called for a comprehensive and impartial investigation into the plane crash near Baramati that claimed his father’s life along with four others on January 28.

In a social media post on Wednesday, Jay Pawar raised concerns over what he described as “possible serious lapses” that may have led to the fatal accident. He asserted that the aircraft’s black box is not easily destroyed and stressed that people of Maharashtra deserve to know the complete truth behind the crash.

Demand for action against aviation company

The ill-fated Learjet 45XR aircraft was operated by VSR Ventures Private Limited. Jay Pawar urged authorities to conduct a detailed probe into the firm’s operations and sought a ban on the aviation company pending investigation.

“A detailed investigation of possible serious lapses and irregularities of the aircraft firm should be done in a detailed and impartial manner,” he said.

The crash occurred near the Baramati airstrip, resulting in the deaths of Ajit Pawar and four others.

Call for CBI probe and sabotage allegations

Jay Pawar’s statement came a day after Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Sunetra Pawar and leaders from the Nationalist Congress Party met Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis to demand a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) probe into the accident.

Separately, NCP (SP) MLA Rohit Pawar alleged there was reason to suspect sabotage in the crash and called for a multi-agency investigation involving experts.

During a press conference last week, Rohit Pawar also questioned the past record of Captain Sumit Kapoor, who was piloting the aircraft on the day of the crash. He referred to the pilot’s previous three-year suspension for alcohol consumption.

AAIB seeking support to retrieve CVR data

The Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) is conducting a detailed probe into the crash. According to the agency, special technical assistance has been sought to retrieve data from the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) of the Learjet 45 aircraft involved in the accident.

The investigation is ongoing.

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