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First phase of Gujarat polls will make or mar Cong prospects

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The first phase covers the area which yielded BJP its majority of seats in 2012; it is also the region where the leaders of the Patidar-OBC-Dalit combine ranged against BJP wield greater influence in the state.

The first phase of keenly watched, keenly contested elections to Gujarat Assembly began on Saturday with enthusiastic voter turnout (35.52% till 2 pm) recorded from the start. Polling is being held in 89 of the total 182 constituencies with 977 candidates in the fray.

The BJP faces its most serious challenge in Gujarat in the years from 1995 that it has been in power in the state: apart from 22 years of incumbency, there are the factor of alienated sections of Patidars, OBCs and Dalits ranged against it, the discontent of farmers and the disquiet among the traders and small entrepreneurs over GST and demonetisation which has hurt them badly.

The BJP is primarily banking on the stature and appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to win back the state.

The Congress kept away from talking about Muslims and minorities, focusing more on other aspects. It had the Modi government and BJP on the defensive over Rafale deal, alleging that purchase of the fighter aircraft was overpriced and meant to benefit one industrial house. It also talked about the business deals of BJP president Amit Shah’s son Jay Shah.

While the opposition sought to focus on shortcomings and failures of the BJP, the BJP tried to deflect attention and win back the initiative in setting the agenda for discourse. A high-pitched campaign marked the electioneering that got shriller as the polling day approached – and seemed likely to go on till it comes to an end to days before the second and final phase of election on Dec 14.

The BJP, reputed for its organised, methodical functioning, was so caught up in this that it forgot to come up with a manifesto for the elections. It hurriedly put together and announced a ‘vision document’ – after Patidar leader Hardik Patel’s taunt: that the BJP was so busy making sex CDs (about him) that it forgot to prepare an election manifesto.

In the final days, the BJP managed to make the poll campaign a contest between Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with the latter turning it into a question of his personal honour linking it to Gujarat’s prestige in the final stages. If people had forgotten, he revived their memory, listing all the epithets used for him by different Congress leaders. For Rahul Gandhi and Congress, Modi used names of various Muslim rulers of the past. Whether this clicks with the electorate or not, it is widely acknowledged that Modi’s personal stature and appeal remains intact among the voters of the state.

This translates into election results – gain or loss of seats – being viewed as a reflection on how far the Modi magic worked.

Of the 89 seats that saw polling in the first phase on Saturday, the BJP won 63 in the last state elections held in 2012: it has been stronger in this part of the state. The Congress had won only 22 of the seats here, 1 JD(U), 1 NCP, 2 GPP (Gujarat Parivartan Party) while the remaining went to others.

The areas going to polls are spread over Kutch, Saurashtra and south Gujarat, covering 19 districts of Kutch, Morbi, Jamnagar, Surendranagar, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Rajkot, Botad, Porbandar, Junagadh, Amreli, Gir Somnath, Bhavnagar, Bharuch, Narmada, Surat, Tapi, Navsari, Dang and Valsad.

For the BJP, this phase is crucial since it was this region where its success rate has been highest. Of its total tally of 115 in 2012, 63 came from this part of the state. Of the remaining 93 seats to go to polls on Dec 14, it got 52 – still a majority, but a narrower margin, with Congress winning in 39 constituencies to take its total to 61 seats.

This also the where the actual test of the influence of the three leaders, Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani, from Patidar, OBC and Dalit communities, respectively, will be. This is where they, especially Patels, have greatest presence. Thakor has greater influence in north Gujarat where polling would be held on Dec 14.

In particular, Hardik Patel’s influence would be tested in Saurashstra where Patidars are said to have 35 to 40 per cent of vote share. GST impact, if any, would be seen in Surat. The BJP held 15 of the 16 seats in Surat. The area with dominant presence of diamond merchants had witnessed massive protests against the tax reform.

The Saurashtra region will see some more high profile battles involving cabinet minister Babubhai Bokhiria, Arjun Modhwadia of Congress and former finance and power minister Saurabh Patel.

The most significant contest is for the seat held by Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, Rajkot West. Rupani is pitted against Congress candidate Indraneel Rajyaguru, the outgoing MLA from Rajkot East.

Another interesting battle would be for the Dhoraji seat, where Hardik Patel’s key aide, Lalit Vasoya, has been fielded by the Congress’ ticket. Vasoya will be taking on veteran BJP leader and former Lok Sabha MP Harilal Patel on this Patel community-dominated Assembly constituency in Rajkot district. Dhoraji is the only Assembly constituency on which Congress has fielded a leader from Hardik Patel-led Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS).

Other areas to be watched include Bharuch – the backyard of Ahmad Patel, the Congress leader wielding an influence in the party disproportionate to his popular standing. The Congress was wiped out in the area, failing to win any of its 5 constituencies in 2012.

Valsad, also with five seats, would also need watching – rallies of Modi and BJP president Amit Shah in this part were a dismal flop. The Congress had won two of the seats there in 2012.

Somnath, too falls in the first phase. Rahul Gandhi’s visit to Somnath and the party’s ‘faux pas’, in entering his name in the visitor’s register meant for non-Hindus, was raked up by the BJP and Modi who went on to equate him with various Muslim rulers of the past. The Congress had won two of the three seats there.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Maharashtra elections: Opposition accuses Eknath Shinde-led govt of removing voters names leaning to MVA

He accused CM Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis of orchestrating this activity.

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The Opposition on Friday accused the Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led government of being allegedly getting the names of voters removed from the electoral rolls leaning towards the opposition parties, ahead of the State Legislative Assembly elections.

Addressing a conference, leaders of the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) claimed there is no transparency in the functioning of the Election Commission (ECI), and its officers are working under pressure from the ruling parties. They said the MVA would raise the issue with the ECI.

Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole and other leaders have called for the removal of the State Director General of Police, Rashmi Shukla, to ensure the forthcoming elections are conducted in a free and fair manner.

Patole alleged that the Election Commission of India’s “Form no. 7”, which is intended to delete names from the voters’ list for various reasons, is being misused to remove the names of voters leaning towards opposition parties.

He accused CM Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis of orchestrating this activity.

Patole further elaborated that names of voters inclined towards the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (SP) are being deliberately deleted from the voters’ list to achieve a political advantage. He firmly stated that this practice is motivated by the fear of the BJP losing in the elections.

Vijay Wadettiwar, the Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, expressed concern and urged the Election Commission not to accept “Form no. 7”, highlighting that constituencies where the MVA gained a lead in the Lok Sabha elections witnessed the removal of 2,500 to 10,000 voters from the list. The deletion of such a significant number of voters appears to be a deliberate move to influence the election results.

Ambadas Danve, a Shiv Sena (UBT) leader and Opposition leader in the Council, raised alarm about the missing names of 6,000 voters in the Nashik Central assembly seat and asserted that similar issues were faced despite bringing them to the attention of the collector.

This was also observed in Aurangabad Central and Sillod seats, where approximately 27,000 voters were added to the electoral rolls, creating disparities in the voters’ list.

NCP (SP) leader Jitendra Awhad demanded greater transparency and accountability, proposing that the EC should publish a white paper on the voters’ list. He criticised the poor print quality of the voters’ list, highlighting that discrepancies in names, addresses, and photos were inaccurately portrayed, leading to skepticism about the electoral process.

Nana Patole, continuing his plea, urged the Commission to cancel the appointment of 50,000 “yojana doots” who are employed to promote government welfare programs. He alleged that these individuals, paid Rs 50,000, are privately affiliated with the RSS and BJP, indicating a partisan approach in the execution of the election campaign.

Assembly polls in the state will be held on November 20, and votes will be counted on November 23.

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Nayab Saini takes oath as Haryana Chief Minister for second term

CM Saini walked on stage at the swearing-in ceremony with his predecessor and mentor Manohar Lal Khattar by his side.

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Nayab Saini takes oath as Haryana Chief Minister for second term

Nayab Singh Saini was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Haryana on Thursday, marking his second term, after BJP secured an unprecedented third term in the state.  Nayab Saini’s council of ministers also took oath at the high-profile ceremony attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP leaders.

Governor of Haryana, Bandaru Dattatreya administered the oath of office and secrecy to Nayab Saini. The swearing-in ceremony took place at the Dussehra Ground in Panchkula, amidst the presence of Union Minister Amit Shah, Union Minister Rajnath Singh, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari, as well as chief ministers from National Democratic Alliance (NDA)-ruled states.

CM Saini walked on stage at the swearing-in ceremony with his predecessor and mentor Manohar Lal Khattar by his side. After Nayab Saini, Senior BJP leader and MLA Anil Vij, who was rumoured to be in the running for Chief Minister, took oath as a minister in the Saini 2.0 Cabinet.

Notably, Haryana can have a maximum of 14 ministers, including the Chief Minister in the cabinet. Beside Anil Vij, Krishan Lal Panwar, Rao Narbir Singh, Mahipal Dhanda, Vipul Goel, Arvind Kumar Sharma, Shruti Choudhry, Shyam Singh Rana, Ranbir Singh Gangwa, Krishan Bedi, Gaurav Gautam, Arti Singh Rao, and Rajesh Nagar also took oath as ministers.

After replacing former CM Manohar Lal Khattar as Chief Minister, Saini steered the BJP to a historic victory in the Haryana Assembly elections. The BJP won 48 seats in the 90-member house, ensuring its third straight term in power in the state.

The Dalit leader, who contested and won the Ladwa seat in Kurukshetra district, was unanimously elected the BJP’s legislature party leader in Haryana on Wednesday. The BJP leader then met Governor Bandaru Dattatreya and staked a claim to form the next government in the state.

Nayab Saini, the BJP’s prominent OBC face in Haryana, previously served as the Lok Sabha MP from Kurukshetra. He made his electoral debut in 2010 but won his first Assembly seat in 2014 from Narayangarh, joining the Khattar Cabinet. Later in October 2023, he was appointed Haryana BJP chief.

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After Haryana disappointment, Congress surprised by Samajwadi Party by-election snub

The Congress sought five of ten seats in the by-election, which the Samajwadi Party declined, pointing out to the parties respective performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

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After Haryana disappointment, Congress surprised by Samajwadi Party by-election snub

In yet another major jolt to Congress after the Haryana Assembly election injury, Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, denied the grand old party’s seat-sharing request for the by-election to 10 Assembly seats. The Samajwadi Party is a key member of the INDIA bloc.  

The Congress sought five of ten seats in the by-election, which the Samajwadi Party declined, noting parties respective performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Samajwadi Party announced candidates for six of the 10 Uttar Pradesh assembly seats where by-polls are due later this year. The Election Commission is yet to declare the date. 

Akhilesh Yadav led party has fielded Tej Pratap Yadav from Karhal, Naseem Solanki from the Sisamu seat, Mustafa Siddiqui from Phulpur (Prayagraj), and Ajit Prasad from Milkipur (Ayodhya), according to the party’s list issued on social media platform X. Shobhawai Verma and Jyodi Bind have been given party tickets from Katehari and Majhwan seats.

Reacting to the same, Samajwadi Party leader Ravidas Mehrotra slammed Congress, stating that they did not give a single seat to them in the Haryana election, but gave the entire state to BJP. He added that if Congress had an alliance with Samajwadi Party and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), then the INDIA bloc would have been in power in the state. He asserted that they want to defeat BJP in the Uttar by-election, hence they have announced the list of 6 candidates. However, he clarified that his party is hopeful to form an alliance with Congress in the remaining 4 seats. 

Expressing surprise over the sudden announcement by Samajwadi Party, UP Congress in-charge Avinash Pandey said that no information was given to them on this. He added that there has been no discussion with the coordination committee of the INDIA bloc yet. He mentioned that as far as the announcement of seats and contesting elections is concerned, whatever decision the Coordination Committee of INDIA alliance takes, it will be accepted by the Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee. He remarked that possibilities of alliance always remain till the end. 

Meanwhile, the BJP in its third consecutive victory in Haryana, achieved its best performance, winning 48 seats, 11 more than the Congress.

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