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RCB boost IPL 2025 playoff hopes with 88% qualification chance, DC at 70%, MI and CSK struggle

RCB’s win over DC pushes them closer to IPL 2025 playoffs qualification with an 88% chance, while CSK and RR face near elimination.

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The Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 is heading into its most thrilling phase yet, with playoff dreams hanging by a thread for several teams. Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) strengthened their qualification prospects with a commanding six-wicket victory against Delhi Capitals (DC) on Sunday, a result that not only lifted them to the top of the points table but also pushed their playoff probability to an impressive 88%.

Following RCB’s win, the latest playoff qualification odds have come into focus, showing a mixed bag of fortunes for various franchises as per a Monte Carlo Simulation analysis.

RCB, GT, and DC lead the race; MI and PBKS in the hunt

RCB are almost certain to progress, likely finishing the league stage with 18 to 20 points, translating to nine or ten wins. Gujarat Titans (GT) are close behind with an 82% chance, banking on their games in hand to secure 16 to 18 points.

Delhi Capitals, despite their home loss to RCB, maintain a healthy 70% chance of qualifying. They are expected to close the league with around 16 points, thanks to their consistent performances earlier this season.

Mumbai Indians (MI), currently enjoying a winning streak, have a 65% chance of reaching the playoffs. Their fate largely hinges on the outcome of closely contested matches in the final rounds.

Punjab Kings (PBKS) stand at a 50% probability after a mid-season dip. Though their strong start has been offset by recent setbacks, they remain in contention.

Tough road ahead for LSG, KKR, SRH, RR, and CSK

Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) have only a 25% chance to qualify, with a near-flawless run needed in their remaining fixtures. Defending champions Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) find themselves with just a 10% chance, relying heavily on other results.

Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) have seen their playoff hopes dwindle to 5% and 3% respectively after a string of defeats. Meanwhile, Chennai Super Kings (CSK), under MS Dhoni’s leadership, cling to a slim 2% chance, with even maximum wins possibly falling short.

Simulation methodology

The projections were drawn from simulating the remaining IPL 2025 matches 10,000 times using a Monte Carlo method. Each team’s final points tally was determined by simulating win probabilities, factoring in tie-breakers like net run rate (NRR) where necessary.

Cricket news

Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif confirms boycott of India match at T20 World Cup

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has reaffirmed his country’s decision to boycott the T20 World Cup match against India, prompting concern from the ICC over selective participation.

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Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Wednesday reaffirmed his government’s decision to boycott the country’s T20 World Cup match against India, stating that Islamabad has taken a “clear stand” on the issue.

Addressing the federal cabinet in Islamabad, Sharif said Pakistan would not take the field against India for the scheduled February 15 match in Sri Lanka. He added that the decision was made after careful assessment and described it as an appropriate step.

“There should be no politics in sports,” the prime minister said, adding that the stance was final after due deliberation.

ICC flags issue of selective participation

Pakistan’s position follows an earlier statement by the government, shared on social media, indicating that the national team would not play the group-stage match against India. No specific reason was cited in that post.

Reacting to the development, the International Cricket Council (ICC) said selective participation goes against the core principles of global sporting events. In a statement, the ICC noted the Government of Pakistan’s position and said it was awaiting official communication from the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB).

The ICC said tournaments are built on fairness, consistency, and sporting integrity, and selective participation undermines the spirit of international competition. It added that while governments have their own policy considerations, such decisions are not in the interest of the global game or fans worldwide.

The governing body urged the PCB to explore a mutually acceptable resolution that safeguards the interests of all stakeholders and ensures the successful conduct of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026.

Bangladesh replacement and wider context

The issue comes amid recent developments involving other teams. The ICC had announced last month that Scotland would replace Bangladesh in the T20 World Cup after the Bangladesh Cricket Board refused to participate as per the published schedule.

The decision followed the ICC’s rejection of Bangladesh’s request to move its matches out of India, citing the absence of any credible or verifiable security threat. Scotland, currently ranked 14th in T20 Internationals, was named as the replacement being the highest-ranked team not originally qualified.

India-Pakistan rivalry record

Pakistan and India have faced each other eight times in ICC T20 World Cups, with India holding a dominant 7-1 record. In last year’s Asia Cup, India also defeated Pakistan in a series of matches, including the final.

The T20 World Cup 2026 will be hosted by India and Sri Lanka from February 7 to March 8. Pakistan have been placed in Group A alongside India, Namibia, the Netherlands, and the United States.

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Cricket news

Pakistan’s India boycott at T20 World Cup 2026 puts team at risk of ICC action

Pakistan’s boycott of its India clash at the T20 World Cup 2026 has sparked a major row, with the ICC warning of sanctions that could impact the team’s future.

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Pakistan

Pakistan’s decision to boycott its group-stage match against India at the T20 World Cup 2026 has triggered a major controversy, with the International Cricket Council (ICC) warning of possible punitive action that could impact Pakistan’s participation in global cricket.

The Pakistan cricket team is set to take part in the tournament but will not take the field against India in the February 15 match scheduled in Colombo. The move was approved by the Pakistan government and announced publicly through a social media post, which confirmed participation in the event while excluding the India fixture.

Why Pakistan decided to boycott the India match

The decision follows the ICC’s removal of Bangladesh from the T20 World Cup 2026. Bangladesh had requested a venue change for their matches citing security concerns, but the request was turned down by the ICC, eventually leading to their exclusion from the tournament. Pakistan’s government cited this development while taking the call to skip the India game.

ICC responds with strong warning

Reacting to Pakistan’s stance, the ICC said selective participation undermines the integrity and fairness of global tournaments. In its official statement, the governing body stressed that ICC events are built on sporting integrity, competitiveness and consistency, adding that such decisions are not in the interest of the global game or fans, including those in Pakistan.

The ICC also clarified that it has not yet received any formal communication from the Pakistan Cricket Board regarding the boycott decision.

Sanctions Pakistan could face

According to developments surrounding the issue, Pakistan could face a range of consequences if the boycott is enforced. These may include financial penalties, a possible ban from the current or future ICC events, and resistance from top cricketing nations in scheduling bilateral series. There is also a risk that overseas players could be barred from participating in the Pakistan Super League if sanctions escalate.

The situation remains fluid as the ICC is expected to take a final call after official communication from Pakistan’s cricket board.

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India predicted XI for 5th T20I vs New Zealand as Kishan set for return

India are expected to bring back Ishan Kishan and Axar Patel for the 5th T20I vs New Zealand as the hosts aim to end the series on a high.

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India will look to end their T20I series against New Zealand on a positive note when the two sides meet in the fifth and final match in Thiruvananthapuram on Saturday. Although the hosts have already secured the five-match series by winning the first three games, they suffered a 50-run defeat in the fourth T20I.

New Zealand posted a challenging total of 215 for 7 in the previous match, with Tim Seifert striking an aggressive half-century. Devon Conway and Daryl Mitchell added valuable contributions to push the visitors to a commanding score. In response, Shivam Dube provided resistance with a powerful knock, but India failed to keep up with the required run rate and fell well short.

With this match being India’s final T20I before the upcoming T20 World Cup, the team management is expected to field players who are likely to feature in the global tournament.

Sanju Samson is set for a crucial outing in front of his home crowd. The wicketkeeper-batter has managed just 40 runs across four matches in the series and will be keen to regain form. He is expected to open the batting alongside the in-form Abhishek Sharma.

Ishan Kishan is likely to return to the XI and slot in at No. 3, while captain Suryakumar Yadav is expected to move back to his preferred No. 4 position. Shivam Dube is set to retain his place following his recent performance and is also expected to provide a bowling option if required.

Axar Patel, who missed games earlier due to a finger injury sustained in the opening T20I, is expected to make his comeback. India’s spin attack is likely to feature Varun Chakaravarthy and Kuldeep Yadav as specialist spinners.

In the pace department, Jasprit Bumrah and Arshdeep Singh are expected to lead the attack. All-rounder Hardik Pandya is likely to be rested after featuring in the first four matches of the series.

India predicted XI for 5th T20I vs New Zealand

Abhishek Sharma, Sanju Samson, Ishan Kishan, Suryakumar Yadav (c), Shivam Dube, Rinku Singh, Axar Patel, Varun Chakaravarthy, Kuldeep Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah, Arshdeep Singh

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