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Trump’s pull out of Iran N-deal may escalate oil prices

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Trump’s pull out of Iran N-deal may escalate oil prices

India will also be affected by oil price rise

The possibilities of US President Donald Trump’s pull out from Iran nuclear deal on May 12 has been influencing the crude oil market. The Brent Crude, the global benchmark, briefly soared above $75 per barrel on Monday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Iran was lying on its implementation of JCPOA conditions.

According to CNN, bringing back sanctions on Iran could knock out as much as 1 million barrels per day of crude supply, dealing a “blow to increasingly fragile energy markets”.

Micheal Wittner, the global head of oil research at Societe Generals, a French multinational banking and financial services, said, “There will be significant disruption. The market is assuming that oil sanctions will snap back onto Iran”.

Read More: Iran warns US not to withdraw from n-deal or face consequences

Meanwhile, Tehran based Press TV reports that the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) exported 2.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate to Asian and European countries in April, a record since the lifting of sanctions in early 2016.

China and India are the biggest buyers taking in 1.4 million bpd of Iran’s oil. South Korea and Japan are Iran’s other key customers in Asia where 60 percent of Iranian oil is exported.

The report further says that Europe receives almost all the other 40 percent of oil shipments from Iran.The major buyers include: France’s Total, Anglo-Dutch Shell, Italy’s Saras, Greek Hellenic Petroleum as well as Polish and Turkish companies.

Read More: Saudi Prince ask US to rethink on Iran-N deal

After January 2016, when US-led sanctions were lifted along with implementation of Iran nuclear deal known as JCPOA, Iran re-emerged as a major oil exporter. However, Trump’s threats to re-impose the US sanctions this month have sent jitters across the global oil market.

Meanwhile Reuters quoted Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore, saying, “As May 12 Iran nuclear deadline nears, geopolitical developments will continue to drive oil market sentiments”.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump said that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s revelations about Iran lying on its nuclear project show he’s “100% right” about the Iranian nuclear agreement. He was quoted saying, “We’ll see what happens. I’m not telling you what I’m doing, but a lot of people think they know.”

Stephen Bennock, the oil analyst at Singapore based brokerage firm PVM Oil Associates, wrote to his clients late last week, “The Iranian nuclear deal is dead in the water and a Trump torpedo is fast approaching.”

Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities, in exchange of lifting sanctions against the country. Iran had quickly boosted its oil production by about 1 million barrels per day after the implementation of the deal in January 2016.

According to FEG estimates, if the sanctions are restored, Iran’s output could be slashed by 250,000 to 50,000 barrels per day by the end of 2018. This figure could rise to 500,000 to 1 million per day through 2019.

Read More: EU: US to lose trust if Washington withdraws from Iran N-deal

FGE has also warned that if no steps are taken to void left by Iran, the gap between supply and demand could shrink to the tightest level since 2013, when oil prices were above $ 100 a barrel.

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India envoy Dinesh Trivedi meets PM Modi after talks with Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman 

India’s High Commissioner to Bangladesh Dinesh Trivedi met PM Modi after talks with Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman amid diplomatic tensions.

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India’s High Commissioner to Bangladesh Dinesh Trivedi met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Tuesday, a day after his meeting with Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman in Dhaka.

According to the High Commission of India in Bangladesh, Trivedi sought PM Modi’s guidance on further strengthening the bilateral relationship between India and Bangladesh through a constructive and people-centric approach.

The meeting came a day after Trivedi held discussions with Tarique Rahman on matters of mutual interest and ways to advance ties between the two neighbouring countries.

Dinesh Trivedi Meets Bangladesh PM

During his meeting with Tarique Rahman on Monday, Trivedi conveyed greetings from Prime Minister Modi and reiterated India’s commitment to working with the Bangladeshi administration and its people in a positive, constructive and forward-looking manner.

The two sides discussed issues of mutual interest and explored avenues for strengthening India-Bangladesh relations with a people-centric approach.

The engagement took place at the Prime Minister’s Office in the Cabinet Division at the Bangladesh Secretariat. Trivedi also shared his experience of serving in Dhaka over the previous two months.

Sheikh Hasina Extradition Request

The meeting assumed significance as Bangladesh has expressed hope that India will expedite the extradition process involving former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was ousted following a student-led uprising in 2024.

According to a statement issued by the Bangladesh Prime Minister’s Office, Dhaka also reiterated its request for India to return individuals it alleges were involved in the killing of Shahid Osman Hadi, a prominent figure associated with the July uprising who was shot on December 12, 2025.

Tarique Rahman stressed the need to create a suitable environment to take forward relations between Bangladesh and India.

Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman, Prime Minister’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Humayun Kabir and other officials attended the meeting.

India-Bangladesh Ties Amid Diplomatic Friction

The latest high-level engagements come amid diplomatic tensions between the two countries following a virtual press interaction by Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi on August 5.

The event, organised by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of South Asia to mark the second anniversary of her ouster, prompted strong objections from Dhaka.

During the interaction, Hasina said she remained determined to return to Bangladesh in December and restore democracy, while acknowledging the possibility of imprisonment or a death sentence upon her return.

Bangladesh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs subsequently registered a strong protest and said the development had affected public sentiment and complicated efforts to strengthen bilateral cooperation.

India has said the government had no involvement in the event. Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said it was organised by a private media entity and clarified that New Delhi did not endorse views expressed at the forum.

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Trump, PM Modi will resolve tariff issue over Russian oil trade, says US official

White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro said Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will resolve the issue over US tariff threats linked to India’s Russian oil trade.

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US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will resolve the issue surrounding the threat of US tariffs linked to India’s purchase of Russian oil, White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro said on Tuesday.

Navarro’s remarks came days after the US Senate passed a bill authorising the US President to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on the top five purchasers of Russian oil. The measure argues that such purchases directly contribute to financing Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Navarro comments on India’s Russian oil trade

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Navarro said India was not involved in the oil trade with Russia before the Ukraine war began in 2022.

He alleged that India became heavily involved in the trade after Russia’s invasion and sold refined products on behalf of Russia, which he said helped support the Russian war effort.

“Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India was not involved in the oil trade with Russia, but afterwards it got heavily involved,” Navarro said.

The White House adviser also claimed that the issue had since been resolved and attributed some of the shift in India’s Russian oil trade to an opinion article he recently wrote in the Financial Times.

Trump and Modi will resolve issue, Navarro says

Navarro said the relationship between Trump and Modi would help address the tariff-related issue.

“The president and your prime minister have a very good working relationship. They are going to work that out amongst themselves,” he said, adding that it was not his place to intervene.

His comments come amid US concerns over countries purchasing Russian oil and proposed measures aimed at imposing additional tariffs on major buyers.

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US Senate passes Russia sanctions bill, India-China face 100% tariff risk

The US Senate has passed a Russia sanctions bill that could allow 100% tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil and gas, including India and China.

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The US Senate has approved a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill that could allow President Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian oil or natural gas, including India and China.

The legislation was passed by an 86-11 vote and will now move to the US House of Representatives, which is scheduled to reconvene on August 31.

The bill is named in honour of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a strong supporter of Ukraine who died on July 11. Graham had pushed for tougher sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine.

India and China among major Russian energy buyers

The legislation gives the US president the power to impose tariffs on the world’s top five purchasers of Russian oil or natural gas.

India and China are among those countries, along with Azerbaijan, Hungary and Slovakia.

The bill also contains an exception for countries importing less than 15% of their natural gas from Russia and taking steps to reduce their dependence on Russian supplies.

What does the Russia sanctions bill contain?

Apart from the proposed tariffs, the legislation includes sanctions targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin, senior Russian political and military officials, financial institutions and energy projects.

The bill would also expand US sanctions to older and reflagged oil tankers allegedly used by Moscow to bypass existing restrictions on Russian oil and energy revenues.

At the same time, the White House would have the option to waive sanctions or restrictions if the president certifies to Congress that doing so is in the national interest.

Bill also extends Iran sanctions law

The legislation also contains a provision related to Iran. It would extend the expiration date of the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 until 2031.

The law penalises companies that invest in Iran’s energy sector.

The bill’s passage in the Senate marks the next step in the US legislative process, but it still needs approval from the House of Representatives before it can move forward.

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