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Can Chabahar be a second OBOR gateway?

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NEEDED, SOME PROACTIVE DIPLOMACY: Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets President of People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping ahead of the BRICS Summit in Goa, UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Gwadar need not be the only port of ingress and egress for the China-initiated transnational road-and-rail network; the India-Iran harbour route can be safer

By Sujit Bhar

Stated positions in international diplomacy change faster than pieces in a rapid chess match.  If frequent geopolitical shifts have to be addressed, they either have to be dealt with counter-moves, or through the opening of an alternative, surreptitious and camouflaged line of attack.

There is no defeat in international diplomacy, till you concede one.

The India-China position vis-à-vis the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative can reach a dead end if India cannot find that alternative route fast. The Chabahar Port route rests in a confused state as of now.

While in April Union minister Nitin Gadkari said work on the port is moving fast and that India has now got a two-year management contract for the port, India’s promise of a $ 500 million investment seems to be on a slippery surface, post problems arising out of Iran’s delaying tactics in awarding gas exploration contract in its Farzad B offshore field to ONGC Videsh. This was one by-product India was looking for within the Chabahar Port deal.

As per published reports, India has decided to reduce oil imports from Iran by three million tonnes, which translates to approximately 25 percent of the oil India imports from Iran. With India sourcing almost six percent of all its oil from that country, India will have to seek an alternative route. With oil prices down, this might not be such a problem, but Iran has not taken kindly to its second-largest customer (after China), cutting back on purchases. It has retaliated by cutting India’s payment schedule from 90 days to 30, as well as cutting back on freight discounts.

If one looks at these as pure business decisions, then there is no problem. Differences arise before they are solved. However, this seems to be connected to India’s political aspirations. Isolating Pakistan isn’t proving to be so easy. If Iran does think joining OBOR would be beneficial for it, a quick change of stance with respect to Pakistan would not be difficult. While India has several running defence deals with Iran, Iran has shown no bad intentions regarding Pakistan.

There is said to be a clause in India’s 16-year-old defence deal with Iran, which reportedly says that India might be given access to Iranian military bases in the event of a war with Pakistan. This, however, has not been openly confirmed by either country, which puts the viability of the deal into unknown territory.

AN OVERVIEW: A map pinpointing the locations of Chabahar and Gwadar ports

AN OVERVIEW: A map pinpointing the locations of Chabahar and Gwadar ports

Hence Iran’s intentions, as expected, revolve around its own interests. The Chabahar Port will be a value addition for Iran. If the CPEC goes forward, joining Gwadar Port with the overall OBOR system, how much latitude can India gain from the Chabahar port connecting Afghanistan, while staying away from OBOR?

Frankly, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision cannot be wished away by India. India would expect to get a better understanding of the OBOR initiative from the inside and not from a spectator’s perspective. That China has taken the lead in world geopolitics and across the financial world cannot be denied by India. There is little point in being an ostrich in a changing world. There are no stated positions.

India’s stated position about PoK need not change if there is a move towards accepting OBOR as inevitable, and in a partnership offer, one has to take financial options into consideration while dealing with the issue. Prime Minister Narendra Modi would need a face-saver, surely, because the opposition would be screaming murder if India agrees to attend the upcoming OBOR meet. But here is the dig. If OBOR is developed through partnership, and not through the primary dictates of China, there is a possibility that India can press for its own security system for its goods through the disturbed Baloch, PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan regions.

Let this be a practical discussion. Can India, though any international forum, possibly stop Chinese-Pakistani construction in disputed areas for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which happens to be an integral part of OBOR? One guesses not.

And, as China claims, will India’s not attending the OBOR meet completely isolate India? I guess not, too. This will also remain in the region of probability. However, there is a catch. If OBOR is an unqualified success, any late entry effort would not only require cost, but also present a positioning problem for India.

What if India sends an unqualified “yes” signal? Technically, that would mean accepting all existing norms, including, possibly, discussions on the Kashmir issue with a third party, something India has consistently refused to accede to. That would be the end of Modi’s tenure at the top.

What is the midway? Possibly sending a low-powered delegation to the OBOR meet? That would provide representation without accountability, because such a delegation would lack the authority to make decisions. In other words it would result in dragging feet, but India has huge experience in this. Any opportunity unexplored is no opportunity. If India refuses to acknowledge OBOR, its voice on PoK will be rarely heard.

There is a chance of forcing a change from within, and Chabahar is as good an entry and exit point for goods on OBOR as Gwadar. Does that sound like an alternative position? Two things to consider here. Xi has improved relations with Iran several-fold through his visit of the country. OBOR does not need to have just the CPEC route to use. What if it can use both? What if India can place a quick proposal that India’s proposed route can also connect to OBOR?

This is a disruptive thought. Floating it would be difficult, but not impossible. Could we think about this? India has invested in Chabahar and in developing railway lines to the north. OBOR will happen. While the CPEC is fraught with dangers, the India-Iran-Afghanistan route can be safer.

Let’s make the best use of it.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

JMM-RJD-Congress are supporters of Bangladesh infiltrators: PM Modi at Jharkhand rally

Narendra Modi further claimed that if the bad policies of JMM, Congress and RJD continue, the adivasi society in Jharkhand will shrink

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JMM-RJD-Congress are supporters of Bangladesh infiltrators: PM Modi at Jharkhand rally

Ahead of the Jharkhand Assembly election, PM Narendra Modi launched a scathing attack on the incumbent Hemant Soren government, accusing it to put appeasement at the top of its agenda.

While addressing a rally in Jharkhand’s Garhwa, the Prime Minister said the coalition government of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Congress and RJD are supporters of Bangladesh infiltrators. He said that the JMM-RJD-Congress government has taken appeasement to its peak, and that these parties are destroying the state’s social harmony. He alleged that the parties are supporters of infiltrators, and to get votes of Bangladesh infiltrators, they are getting them settled across Jharkhand.

The Prime Minister stated that when schools disallow Saraswati Vandana, one can imagine how big the danger is. When there is stone-pelting during festivals, Maa Durga is stopped and curfew is imposed, one knows how dangerous it is, he continued. The Prime Minister also added that when the issue of infiltration goes to court and the administration denies, it becomes clear that the government machinery has been infiltrated. PM Modi was referring to allegations that a Muslim teacher stopped prayers to Goddess Saraswati at a school in Jharkhand’s Giridih.

Narendra Modi further claimed that if the bad policies of JMM, Congress and RJD continue, the adivasi society in Jharkhand will shrink, and advised people to use their vote to uproot this infiltrator coalition. He maintained that Jharkhand’s swift development is possible only if it has a government that expedites the implementation of central schemes.

Referring to the JMM’s decision to replace Champai Soren as Chief Minister after Hemant Soren was granted bail in a money laundering case, PM Modi said that the party has left no stones unturned in humiliating an adivasi son. He asked how the party will take care of the people of the state when nothing matters to them more than family. He added that he does not have a family, and the people are his family. He also mentioned that Champai Soren, once a trusted lieutenant of Hemant Soren, is now with the BJP.

Slamming the ruling coalition of corruption, he said that corruption hollows out the country like termites, and destroys the poor, Dalits, people from backward classes and tribals. He claimed that Jharkhand has seen for five years the corruption of the JMM-Congress-RJD government.

He also referred to the massive cash haul from the home of Congress’s former Rajya Sabha MP Dhiraj Sahu last year. Mentioning that mountains of cash are recovered from the home of Congress’s Rajya Sabha MP, he questioned if this money didn’t belong to Jharkhand.

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Ruckus in Jammu and Kashmir Assembly over resolution against Article 370 abrogation

Chief Minister Omar Abdullah addressing the session, said that the resolution has no importance and it is only for the cameras.

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Ruckus in Jammu and Kashmir Assembly over resolution against Article 370 abrogation

Jammu and Kashmir Assembly on Monday witnessed chaos after People’s Democratic Party (PDP) MLA Waheed Para moved a resolution opposing the abrogation of Article 370 and called for restoring the union territory’s special status.

Waheed Para, the PDP MLA from the Pulwama Assembly seat, submitted the resolution to newly elected Speaker, Abdul Rahim Rather and requested for a discussion on the matter during the five-day session, despite not being a part of the agenda.

It was submitted that although the agenda of the House has been finalised, they believe that the authority as the Speaker allows the inclusion of the resolution, as it reflects the sentiment of the people at large. After the resolution was submitted, all 28 Jammu and Kashmir BJP MLAs stood up to oppose the move, leading to noisy scenes inside the Assembly.

As the members protested, BJP MLA Sham Lal Sharma demanded Para’s suspension for bringing the resolution in violation of Assembly rules. The agitation continued even after the Speaker repeatedly requested the protesting members to take their seats. He asserted the resolution has not come to him yet and when it does, he would examine it.

While the BJP members refused to call off their protest, National Conference MLAs slammed them for interrupting the proceedings of the House. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah addressing the session, said that the resolution has no importance and it is only for the cameras.

The Chief Minister added that how the House will reflect and discuss this matter will not be decided by any one member. If there was a purpose behind the resolution, then they would have discussed this with the government before, he continued.

Nonetheless, CM Abdullah also admitted that the people of Jammu and Kashmir do not approve of the decision taken on August 5, 2019, when Article 370 was abrogated. Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha also said that his government will make all efforts for the restoration of full statehood. He mentioned that restoration of full statehood would be a reciprocation of the faith reposed by the people of Jammu and Kashmir in democratic institutions.

Meanwhile, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti expressed that she was proud of Waheed Para for submitting the resolution.

Notably, Article 370 was a provision in the Constitution that granted special autonomy to the region of Jammu and Kashmir. It also allowed the state to have its own constitution, flag, and autonomy over internal matters except defense, communications, and foreign affairs.

However, the Centre on August 5, 2019 revoked Article 370, effectively removing the special status of Jammu and Kashmir and reorganising it into two Union Territories namely, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.

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20 killed after bus falls into gorge near Uttarakhand’s Pauri-Almora border, CM Dhami expresses grief

Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami has announced financial assistance of Rs 4 lakh each for the families of the deceased and Rs 1 lakh each for the injured.

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20 killed after bus falls into gorge near Uttarakhand’s Pauri-Almora border, CM Dhami expresses grief

In a tragic incident, nearly 20 people were killed after a Garwal Motors Users bus fell into a 200-metre deep gorge near Uttarakhand’s Kupi in Ramnagar at Pauri-Almora border on Monday. The injured are being hurried to the hospital and a search operation is currently underway. At least 35 people were inside the bus when the accident occured.

The fatal accident was reported to authorities at around 9 am by passengers who had fallen from the bus during the accident. Police and teams from National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) are at the accident site in Marchula’s Salt area. 

Speaking to the media, District Magistrate Alok Kumar Pandey said that the bus was going from Garhwal to Kumaon where the accident took place at Marchula in Almora. Sanjay Kumar, Salt Sub-District Magistrate stated that some of the passengers have been rescued and admitted to hospital. 

Meanwhile, Uttarakhand Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami has announced financial assistance of Rs 4 lakh each for the families of the deceased and Rs 1 lakh each for the injured. The Chief Minister also directed the Commissioner of the Kumaon division to carry out a magisterial inquiry into the incident. 

Taking to social media platform X, CM Pushkar Singh Dhami expressed grief, and said that a very sad news has been received about the casualties of passengers in the unfortunate bus accident that took place in Marchula of Almora district. He added that the district administration has been instructed to carry out relief and rescue operations swiftly. 

Furthermore, CM Dhami stated that the local administration and SDRF teams at the accident site are working rapidly to evacuate the injured and take them to the nearest health centre for treatment. He mentioned that instruction have also been given to airlift seriously injured passengers if required. 

In a tweet, the Prime Minister’s office also announced an ex-gratia of Rs 2 lakh from PMNRF for the next of kin of each deceased in the mishap in Almora, adding that the injured would be given Rs 50,000.

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