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Can Chabahar be a second OBOR gateway?

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NEEDED, SOME PROACTIVE DIPLOMACY: Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets President of People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping ahead of the BRICS Summit in Goa, UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Gwadar need not be the only port of ingress and egress for the China-initiated transnational road-and-rail network; the India-Iran harbour route can be safer

By Sujit Bhar

Stated positions in international diplomacy change faster than pieces in a rapid chess match.  If frequent geopolitical shifts have to be addressed, they either have to be dealt with counter-moves, or through the opening of an alternative, surreptitious and camouflaged line of attack.

There is no defeat in international diplomacy, till you concede one.

The India-China position vis-à-vis the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative can reach a dead end if India cannot find that alternative route fast. The Chabahar Port route rests in a confused state as of now.

While in April Union minister Nitin Gadkari said work on the port is moving fast and that India has now got a two-year management contract for the port, India’s promise of a $ 500 million investment seems to be on a slippery surface, post problems arising out of Iran’s delaying tactics in awarding gas exploration contract in its Farzad B offshore field to ONGC Videsh. This was one by-product India was looking for within the Chabahar Port deal.

As per published reports, India has decided to reduce oil imports from Iran by three million tonnes, which translates to approximately 25 percent of the oil India imports from Iran. With India sourcing almost six percent of all its oil from that country, India will have to seek an alternative route. With oil prices down, this might not be such a problem, but Iran has not taken kindly to its second-largest customer (after China), cutting back on purchases. It has retaliated by cutting India’s payment schedule from 90 days to 30, as well as cutting back on freight discounts.

If one looks at these as pure business decisions, then there is no problem. Differences arise before they are solved. However, this seems to be connected to India’s political aspirations. Isolating Pakistan isn’t proving to be so easy. If Iran does think joining OBOR would be beneficial for it, a quick change of stance with respect to Pakistan would not be difficult. While India has several running defence deals with Iran, Iran has shown no bad intentions regarding Pakistan.

There is said to be a clause in India’s 16-year-old defence deal with Iran, which reportedly says that India might be given access to Iranian military bases in the event of a war with Pakistan. This, however, has not been openly confirmed by either country, which puts the viability of the deal into unknown territory.

AN OVERVIEW: A map pinpointing the locations of Chabahar and Gwadar ports

AN OVERVIEW: A map pinpointing the locations of Chabahar and Gwadar ports

Hence Iran’s intentions, as expected, revolve around its own interests. The Chabahar Port will be a value addition for Iran. If the CPEC goes forward, joining Gwadar Port with the overall OBOR system, how much latitude can India gain from the Chabahar port connecting Afghanistan, while staying away from OBOR?

Frankly, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision cannot be wished away by India. India would expect to get a better understanding of the OBOR initiative from the inside and not from a spectator’s perspective. That China has taken the lead in world geopolitics and across the financial world cannot be denied by India. There is little point in being an ostrich in a changing world. There are no stated positions.

India’s stated position about PoK need not change if there is a move towards accepting OBOR as inevitable, and in a partnership offer, one has to take financial options into consideration while dealing with the issue. Prime Minister Narendra Modi would need a face-saver, surely, because the opposition would be screaming murder if India agrees to attend the upcoming OBOR meet. But here is the dig. If OBOR is developed through partnership, and not through the primary dictates of China, there is a possibility that India can press for its own security system for its goods through the disturbed Baloch, PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan regions.

Let this be a practical discussion. Can India, though any international forum, possibly stop Chinese-Pakistani construction in disputed areas for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which happens to be an integral part of OBOR? One guesses not.

And, as China claims, will India’s not attending the OBOR meet completely isolate India? I guess not, too. This will also remain in the region of probability. However, there is a catch. If OBOR is an unqualified success, any late entry effort would not only require cost, but also present a positioning problem for India.

What if India sends an unqualified “yes” signal? Technically, that would mean accepting all existing norms, including, possibly, discussions on the Kashmir issue with a third party, something India has consistently refused to accede to. That would be the end of Modi’s tenure at the top.

What is the midway? Possibly sending a low-powered delegation to the OBOR meet? That would provide representation without accountability, because such a delegation would lack the authority to make decisions. In other words it would result in dragging feet, but India has huge experience in this. Any opportunity unexplored is no opportunity. If India refuses to acknowledge OBOR, its voice on PoK will be rarely heard.

There is a chance of forcing a change from within, and Chabahar is as good an entry and exit point for goods on OBOR as Gwadar. Does that sound like an alternative position? Two things to consider here. Xi has improved relations with Iran several-fold through his visit of the country. OBOR does not need to have just the CPEC route to use. What if it can use both? What if India can place a quick proposal that India’s proposed route can also connect to OBOR?

This is a disruptive thought. Floating it would be difficult, but not impossible. Could we think about this? India has invested in Chabahar and in developing railway lines to the north. OBOR will happen. While the CPEC is fraught with dangers, the India-Iran-Afghanistan route can be safer.

Let’s make the best use of it.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Manipur: Congress hits back at BJP chief Nadda’s letter to Kharge

Ramesh emphasised that Nadda’s letter is replete with inaccuracies and reiterated that the people of Manipur long for normalcy, peace, and harmony.

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The Congress on Friday lashed out at BJP president JP Nadda’s accusations that the Opposition party was promoting a politically motivated narrative concerning the situation in Manipur.

The grand old party described Nadda’s letter to Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge as a 4D exercise, which means denial, distortion, distraction, and defamation.

Nadda, responding to Kharge’s call for President Droupadi Murmu’s intervention and his claims of the Centre’s total failure in managing the crisis, claimed that the consequences of Congress’s “abject failure” in handling local issues in Manipur during its governance are still being felt today.

Responding to Nadda, Congress General Secretary for Communications Jairam Ramesh stated, “Congress President Kharge ji wrote to the President of India on Manipur. Apparently, to counter that letter, the BJP President has now written to the Congress President.”

Ramesh emphasised that Nadda’s letter is replete with inaccuracies and reiterated that the people of Manipur long for normalcy, peace, and harmony.

He noted that they are posed with four critical questions: When will the Prime Minister visit the state? How much longer will the Chief Minister remain in office despite lacking majority support? When will a full-time Governor be appointed? And when will the Union Home Minister be held accountable for his failures in Manipur?

Nadda expressed astonishment at the Congress’s ongoing efforts to sensationalize the situation in Manipur, pointing out that Kharge appeared to overlook the fact that his party’s past government had legitimized the illegal migration of foreign militants to India, during which former Home Minister P Chidambaram had signed relevant treaties.

On Tuesday, Kharge had written to President Murmu regarding the worsening conditions in Manipur, requesting her immediate intervention to ensure that the citizens of the state can live peacefully and with dignity.

In his two-page letter, Kharge accused both the Union and Manipur state governments of “completely failing” to restore peace and normalcy over the past 18 months, resulting in a loss of public confidence in their leadership.

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Rahul Gandhi is right, Gautam Adani should be arrested: RJD president Lalu Yadav

“Rahul Gandhi is right. Adani should be arrested,” said Prasad, who is an old ally of the Congress and a staunch opponent of the BJP, to which Adani is said to be close.

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RJD president Lalu Prasad Yadav on Friday spoke in support of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s demand for immediate arrest of Gautam Adani, after the Industrialist was charged in the US for alleged bribery and fraud.

Gandhi, the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, said on Thursday that Gautam Adani should be arrested immediately, and his protector Madhabi Puri Buch should be investigated

The former Congress chief claimed that the recent developments vindicate his long-standing allegations against Gautam Adani. He took a sharp dig at Prime Minister Narendra Modi and alleged that Modi is protecting Adani, and is also involved in corruption. 

Yadav, the former chief minister of Bihar, was responding to queries from journalists here about Gandhi’s statement on the previous day, in the backdrop of charges of bribery and fraud against the Adani group in the US.

“Rahul Gandhi is right. Adani should be arrested,” said Prasad, who is an old ally of the Congress and a staunch opponent of the BJP, to which Adani is said to be close.

The RJD supremo, who incidentally has been convicted in several fodder scam cases and is on bail, was also asked about prospects of the INDIA bloc, of which his party is a part, in Jharkhand, where the counting of votes for assembly polls is scheduled on Saturday.

Speaking to PTI, the ailing septuagenarian replied, “I would like to remain focused on my statement that Adani must be arrested. I am not worried much about a new government (in Jharkhand) where we are already in power.” Jharkhand witnessed a straight battle between the INDIA bloc and the BJP-led NDA, which included the JD(U) headed by Nitish Kumar, Prasad’s arch-rival and the current Chief Minister of Bihar.

Addressing a press conference on Thursday, Gandhi further said that Chief Ministers have been jailed for scams of Rs 10-15 crore, but Adani, who has committed a scam of Rs 2000 crore is walking free.

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Cash for votes row: BJP leader Vinod Tawde sends legal notice to Rahul Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge, asks them to apologise or face defamation

The BJP leader said the allegations against him were false, baseless and made with malafide intentions.

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Cash for votes row: BJP leader Vinod Tawde sends legal notice to Rahul Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge, asks them to apologise or face defamation

BJP leader Vinod Tawde, accused of distributing cash to influence voters, has sent a legal notice to Congress leaders Mallikarjun Kharge, Supriya Shrinate and Rahul Gandhi over the controversy. The BJP leader has demanded their apologies or face a Rs 100-crore defamation case.

Vinod Tawde’s legal notice came after regional party Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) leader Hitendra Thakur on Tuesday accused him of distributing Rs 5 crore at a hotel in Virar in Palghar district, 60 km from Mumbai, to woo voters.

In the legal notice, the BJP leader said the allegations against him were false, baseless and made with malafide intentions. He claimed that he demanded an apology from the three Congress leaders for their remarks against him in the cash-for-votes row or he would be forced to initiate criminal proceedings against them.

Just a few hours before the Assembly Elections, a video went viral on Tuesday showing BVA workers storming into the hotel in Palghar during a meeting between Vinod Tawde and Rajan Naik, the BJP candidate from the Nalasopara seat. The BVA workers alleged that Tawde was caught red-handed with Rs 5 crore cash.

In the viral video, the BVA workers were seen taking out bundles of cash from a bag, while Tawde was sitting at a distance. The BVA workers also took pictures and videos of him on their phones. Amid these allegations, BVA leaders said that Rs 5 crore cash was distributed, an election official on Tuesday said Rs 9.93 lakh cash was recovered from the hotel rooms.

However, Vinod Tawde denied the allegation, saying he was only providing guidance to party workers on poll procedures and said he was not stupid enough to distribute money at his opponent’s hotel. Speaking to the media, he said that the Vivanta Hotel is owned by the Thakurs, and he is not stupid to go to their hotel and distribute money there.

The Police registered two FIRs against Tawde, BJP candidate Naik and others in connection with the controversy. Additionally, the Election Commission filed three FIRs against Tawde.

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