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Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

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Economic Survey seems to have its head in the sand under storm clouds

GDP growth projection of 7-7.5 percent probably seems too optimistic

The Economic Survey 2018 projects 7-7.5 per cent growth rate in 2018-19, up from 6.75 per cent in the current fiscal, making India once again the world’s fastest growing major economy.

The forecast, that comes within an environment of slow and jobless growth, says the economy will grow on the back of major reforms which would be strengthened further in the next financial year.

“A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 per cent this fiscal and will rise to 7 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, thereby re- instating India as the world’s fastest growing major economy,” it says.

The survey points out that India can be rated as among the best performing economies in the world as the average growth during last three years is around 4 percentage points higher than global growth and nearly 3 percentage points higher than that of emerging market and developing economies.

It says that the GDP growth has averaged 7.3 per cent from 2014-15 to 2017-18, which is the highest among the major economies of the world.

“That this growth has been achieved in a milieu of lower inflation, improved current account balance and notable reduction in the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio makes it all the more creditable,” it says.

The survey says that after the preliminary analysis of Goods and Services Tax (GST) data, there has been a 50 per cent jump in the number of indirect taxpayers and a huge increase in voluntary registrations, particularly by small enterprises. The number of individual income tax filers increased by over 18 lakh since November 2016 the month when demonetisation was implemented.

As for the optimistic projections of growth rate, if the survey had taken into consideration of the sharply spiking fuel prices, then, possibly, a change of heart would have occurred. On the other hand, since petroleum is still beyond the scope of GST, higher collection from taxes remains a possibility despite shooting oil prices. That might hot, however, translate into higher GDP growth.

What will be difficult to achieve in this scenario would be fiscal discipline and the deficit could well travel beyond control. And, when the resource pool for buying oil grows, even a small appreciation in the value of the Rupee could have major adverse effects at home.

Much of the survey’s optimism stems from an expectation of higher export. That may be so, but if the Rupee has appreciated against the accepted basket of foreign currencies, it will cancel out the positivity and we could well be standing pretty much where we started.

Before going any further, we need to read the substance of the survey which states that growth is on track, revenue collection is on the rise – it has to be remembered that this is the first survey and first Union Budget after the implementation of GST – and fiscal deficit was under reasonable check.

The survey also sees growth in private investment, the hallmark of any growing economy in the next fiscal while also adding flesh to government initiatives in the education and agriculture.

Apart from the fact that this survey’s forecast runs in the face of the government’s own advance GDP data as was available this month – that expected the economy to grow at a four-year low of 6.5 percent in the current fiscal, mainly due to the poor performance of agriculture and manufacturing sector, against last fiscal’s 7.1 percent – it is possibly avoiding this confrontation, especially with jumping fuel prices barking at its feet.

The fiscal deficit target of the government for this fiscal was 3.2 percent of GDP against 3.5 percent in 2016-17, but it is well known that with the elections progressing and things not looking too good, finance minister Arun Jaitley may be forced to take a populist stance, in which case the fiscal deficit target can only be relaxed, with discipline given a go-by.

The projections here, therefore, would taste better with a pinch of salt.

India News

G RAM G bill replacing MGNREGA passes Parliament amid opposition walkout and protests

The G RAM G Bill replacing MGNREGA has been passed by Parliament after overnight debate in the Rajya Sabha, triggering protests and walkouts by opposition parties.

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Parliament

Parliament has cleared the Viksit Bharat Guarantee for Employment and Livelihood Mission (Rural) Bill, commonly referred to as the G RAM G Bill, paving the way for the replacement of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA). The legislation was passed within two days amid sharp political confrontation, walkouts and overnight protests by opposition parties.

The bill was approved by the Lok Sabha despite repeated disruptions and protests. In the Rajya Sabha, the debate stretched beyond midnight, with voting held around 12.15 am. The bill was eventually passed by a voice vote after opposition members staged a walkout, leaving the ruling alliance members present in the House.

Opposition objects to name change and provisions

The Congress and other opposition parties mounted a strong challenge to the bill, objecting both to the change in the scheme’s name and its revised framework. A key point of contention was the removal of Mahatma Gandhi’s name from the legislation, which opposition leaders said reflected an ideological shift rather than a policy necessity.

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge launched a sharp attack during the Rajya Sabha debate, urging the government to withdraw the bill and warning that it would harm the rural poor. He accused the government of speaking in the name of welfare while undermining the interests of vulnerable communities, making an emotional appeal to reconsider the legislation.

Several opposition members initially demanded that the bill be referred to a standing committee for detailed scrutiny. When that demand was not accepted, they called for the bill’s withdrawal and later staged a walkout. Members of the Trinamool Congress and other parties subsequently sat on a dharna within Parliament premises.

Heated exchanges in the Upper House

The debate witnessed intense exchanges between the treasury benches and the opposition. Trinamool Congress MP Derek O’Brien linked the passage of the bill with developments in West Bengal, alleging that the Centre’s actions had consequences for the implementation of rural employment schemes in the state. He also referred to the state government’s decision to rename its employment initiative following the Lok Sabha vote.

As Rural Development Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan rose to reply, opposition members raised slogans demanding the withdrawal of what they termed a “black bill”. When the protests continued, opposition MPs walked out, allowing the bill to be passed without their presence.

Responding sharply, Chouhan criticised the walkout and accused the opposition of refusing to engage in debate. He defended the government’s move, arguing that the earlier scheme had suffered from corruption and inefficiencies, and said the new law was drafted after consultations with stakeholders.

Government defends overhaul of rural employment scheme

The government has maintained that updating the two-decade-old MGNREGA framework was necessary to address structural shortcomings and align it with current rural needs. According to the provisions outlined, the new law increases the guaranteed days of work from 100 to 125 while retaining key elements of the earlier scheme.

However, critics have pointed out that employment under the new framework will be based on pre-approved plans rather than demand-driven applications at the gram panchayat level. The work categories have also been streamlined into four segments—water security, core rural infrastructure, livelihood-related assets, and climate resilience—raising concerns that local flexibility may be reduced.

Opposition leaders have argued that these changes dilute the original spirit of MGNREGA, which was designed as a rights-based, demand-driven employment guarantee programme.

Protests continue after passage

Following the bill’s passage, opposition parties reiterated their charge that the legislation weakens the guarantee, livelihood assurance and social security that formed the core of the original programme introduced in 2005. Despite these objections, the government’s numerical strength ensured the bill’s smooth passage through both Houses.

With parliamentary approval now secured, the G RAM G Bill is set to replace MGNREGA, marking a significant shift in India’s rural employment policy framework amid continuing political debate.

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Priyanka Gandhi meets Nitin Gadkari over Kerala road projects, light moments mark discussion

Priyanka Gandhi met Nitin Gadkari in Parliament to discuss road projects in Kerala, with the meeting marked by humour, political remarks and an informal food tasting.

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Priyanka Gandhi meets Nitin Gadkari (1)

Congress MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra on Thursday met Union Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari at his office in Parliament to raise issues related to road infrastructure projects passing through Kerala. The meeting combined formal discussions with lighter moments, including a humorous exchange and an unexpected food tasting session.

Kerala road projects discussed at Parliament meeting

Priyanka Gandhi, the Member of Parliament from Wayanad in Kerala, discussed six road projects that pass through the state. During the interaction, Nitin Gadkari clarified that some of these projects fall under the jurisdiction of the Kerala government and therefore cannot be directly handled by the Centre. However, he assured the Congress leader that the remaining proposals would be examined.

According to those present, the discussion remained cordial, with both sides acknowledging administrative limitations while exploring possible ways forward.

‘Bhai ka kaam ho gaya’ remark draws laughter

The meeting also saw a light-hearted moment when Gadkari referred to a recent interaction with Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha. He said Rahul Gandhi had met him earlier regarding road-related concerns in Rae Bareli.

In a humorous remark, Gadkari said that if work was done for the brother but not for the sister, it could lead to complaints. The comment prompted laughter from Priyanka Gandhi and others present in the room.

Congress confident of future action in Kerala

During the conversation, Priyanka Gandhi expressed confidence about the Congress party’s prospects in the upcoming Kerala Assembly elections. She indicated that proposals currently under the purview of the Left Front government in the state would be taken forward once Congress comes to power.

Her remarks reflected political confidence while keeping the focus on infrastructure needs in Kerala.

A homemade dish adds informal touch

Apart from policy discussions, the meeting included an informal culinary moment. Nitin Gadkari had prepared a rice-based dish after learning the recipe from online videos. Visitors to his office were offered rice balls served with chutney.

Gadkari encouraged Priyanka Gandhi to taste the dish, and she, along with Congress leader Deepender Singh Hooda, was seen sampling the food while continuing their conversation with the minister.

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AAP dominates Punjab zila parishad polls, leads in most panchayat samiti zones

AAP has won 201 out of 317 declared zila parishad zones in Punjab so far and is leading in a majority of panchayat samiti seats, with counting still underway.

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Punjab Zila Parishad Polls

The ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has recorded a strong performance in the Punjab zila parishad elections and is leading in the majority of panchayat samiti zones, as per results declared so far on Thursday. The counting process is still underway and complete results are awaited, officials said.

Polling for the rural local bodies was held on December 14 to elect representatives across 347 zones of 22 zila parishads and 2,838 zones of 153 panchayat samitis in the state.

AAP secures clear edge in zila parishads

According to the available results, outcomes have been declared for 317 zila parishad zones so far. Of these, the AAP has won 201 zones, placing it well ahead of other parties.

The Congress emerged second with victories in 60 zones, followed by the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) with 39 zones. The BJP won four zones, the BSP secured three, while independents claimed 10 zones.

District-wise data shows that the AAP won 22 zones in Hoshiarpur, 19 each in Amritsar and Patiala, 17 each in Tarn Taran and Gurdaspur, and 15 zones in Sangrur. The Congress registered its best performances in Gurdaspur and Ludhiana with eight zones each, followed by Jalandhar with seven zones. The SAD performed strongly in Bathinda with 13 zones, while the BJP managed to win four zones in Pathankot.

AAP leads in panchayat samiti results

In the panchayat samiti elections, trends declared so far indicate that the AAP is leading in a majority of zones. However, officials clarified that counting is ongoing and the final picture will be clear only after all ballot papers are tallied.

Kejriwal, Mann reject opposition allegations

Reacting to the trends, AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal said the party’s performance reflected strong rural support for the Bhagwant Mann government’s work. Addressing the media in Mohali along with Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, Kejriwal dismissed allegations of irregularities raised by opposition parties.

He said the elections were conducted in a fair and free manner and claimed that the results so far showed a clear wave in favour of the AAP in rural Punjab. Kejriwal stated that nearly 70 per cent of the zila parishad and panchayat samiti seats had gone in favour of the party.

Congress, SAD question poll conduct

The Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal, however, accused the ruling party of misusing official machinery. Punjab Congress chief Amrinder Singh Raja Warring alleged that the AAP had “stolen” the rural mandate and claimed that the results did not reflect genuine public support.

Opposition parties had earlier also accused the AAP government of high-handedness during the polling process, allegations that the ruling party has strongly denied.

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