Exit polls for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections suggest that the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), led by Chief Minister M K Stalin, is likely to return to power, though the final outcome will be confirmed on counting day.

According to multiple projections, the DMK-led alliance is expected to secure a majority in the 234-member Assembly, with estimates placing the party’s tally in the range of around 122 to 145 seats.

Most polling agencies indicate that the ruling alliance has maintained a clear edge over its rivals, particularly the AIADMK-led bloc, in what has been a closely watched contest.

Vijay factor adds new dimension

A significant highlight of this election has been the entry of actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). His debut has introduced a third force in a state traditionally dominated by the DMK and AIADMK.

Early assessments suggest that while TVK may not secure a large number of seats, it could influence vote shares and outcomes in several constituencies, especially by attracting younger voters and first-time participants.

This has made the electoral contest more complex, with analysts pointing to potential vote-splitting effects that could impact margins for both major alliances.

High turnout and key contest

Polling for all 234 seats was held on April 23, with the state witnessing a high voter turnout of over 84 percent, one of the highest in recent decades.

The election saw a multi-cornered fight involving the DMK alliance, AIADMK-led coalition, and newer players like TVK, alongside other regional parties.

What happens next

Exit polls provide only an early indication of voter trends and are not always accurate. The final results will be declared on May 4, when counting of votes takes place.

Until then, while projections favour a return of the DMK government, the actual impact of the “Vijay factor” and constituency-level dynamics will become clear only after the official results are announced.

Exit polls released after the final phase of voting in West Bengal suggest a closely contested election, with a “poll of polls” indicating that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may hold a slight edge over the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in some projections.

The estimates, which combine multiple exit poll surveys, point to a tight race in the state, reflecting a competitive political contest between Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s TMC and the BJP. While some projections show the BJP ahead, others indicate that the TMC remains firmly in contention, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the final outcome.

The poll of polls aggregates data from different agencies to present a broader picture of voter sentiment. However, variations across surveys underline that the margin between the two major parties is narrow, and no clear consensus has emerged.

West Bengal’s election, held in two phases, has been one of the most closely watched political battles, drawing national attention due to the high-stakes contest between the incumbent leadership and the BJP’s aggressive campaign.

It is important to note that exit polls are only indicative and not definitive. Their accuracy depends on sampling methods and voter responses, and past trends have shown that final results can differ significantly from these projections.

The official results of the West Bengal Assembly elections are scheduled to be announced on May 4, which will ultimately determine whether the TMC retains power or if the BJP manages to make a breakthrough in the state.

Voting for the second phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections began on Wednesday, with early reports of technical glitches in electronic voting machines (EVMs) and isolated incidents of tension in some areas.

Polling is being held across multiple constituencies in parts of the state, with voters arriving at booths from the early hours. However, initial disruptions were reported at several locations, mainly due to malfunctioning EVMs.

Election officials responded to the complaints and worked to replace or repair faulty machines, ensuring that voting resumed with minimal delay. Authorities said most of the technical issues were resolved within a short time.

Alongside the glitches, there were reports of sporadic clashes and allegations of intimidation from certain districts, contributing to a tense atmosphere during the early phase of polling.

The political exchange also intensified, with Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee alleging that central agencies were attempting to influence the electoral process. She claimed that party workers were being harassed and raised concerns over the conduct of the polls.

The Bharatiya Janata Party, on the other hand, accused the ruling party of law and order failures and alleged that its workers faced disruptions in certain areas.

Despite the early issues, polling continued under tight security arrangements, with additional forces deployed at sensitive booths. Election authorities said they were closely monitoring the situation to ensure that voting proceeds smoothly.

This phase is considered significant in the overall election process, with key constituencies witnessing closely watched contests.