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PM Modi slips on unemployment and price rise, will not get majority if polls held now: Survey

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Narendra Modi

An opinion poll by India Today-Karvy Insights says that the BJP, unlike 2014 Lok Sabha elections, would not muster a majority on its own if polls are held now.

Unemployment, price rise, and corruption remain the three biggest issues of concern for Indians, found the survey and all three seem to have become bigger concerns in the last six months.

The Mood Of The Nation (MOTN) survey, released on Saturday, 18 August, says the BJP-led NDA would be back in power, but barely so, if elections were held today.

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance may not be able to fulfil its goal of displace the Modi-Shah led BJP, though it makes significant gains.

While the BJP will not fall short of getting a majority, it will remain the single-largest party with 245 seats (it won 282 in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls), 27 less than the 272 required for simple majority, making it dependent on allies.

According to the biannual poll, the NDA would be just nine ahead of the Lok Sabha halfway mark with 281 seats.

The Congress, on the other hand, would nearly double its 2014 tally by winning 83 seats.

The UPA would win 122 seats while ‘Others’ would pick up the remaining 140.

In terms of the vote share, the NDA would win 36 per cent of votes polled while the UPA would win 31 per cent. ‘Others’ will manage to get more vote share than UPA at 33 per cent.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP crossed the 272-mark comfortably on its own, winning 282 seats, a gain of 166 from the previous election. The NDA had a total of 336 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament. For the Congress, it was one of their worst defeat and managed to win a paltry 44 seats with just 19 per cent vote share.

The NDA’s combined vote share in 2014 was 38.5 per cent and the UPA’s was just under 23 per cent. That leaves out nearly 39 per cent — or a chunk roughly equal to the NDA’s — for all others.

The survey, conducted seven months ahead of the scheduled general assembly elections, takes into account three possible scenarios, analysed The Quint.

Scenario 1: UPA and NDA as in 2014

In scenario 1, the allies under both the coalitions remain the same as they were in 2014, without any new equations coming into play.

Here, the UPA, sans its major allies of BSP, SP and TMC, is predicted to get 122 seats, as against the NDA’s mammoth 281 seats. Others get 140 seats.

As far as vote share is concerned, the UPA is pegged at 31 percent, while the NDA is at 36 percent and the others at 33 percent.

Scenario 2: UPA Allies with BSP, SP and TMC

A scenario in which the opposition gets its act together and forms a ‘mahagathbandhan’ consisting mainly of the Congress, the Trinamool Congress, the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Janata Dal (Secular).

Such a coalition could win as many as 224 seats , just four behind the NDA whose tally will be down to 228 seats. Others get 91 seats.

The BJPs own tally would drop to 194 seats and though it will still be the single-largest party, it will be heavily dependent on its allies and breakaway parties to form a government.

Modi’s credibility as BJP’s prime vote-catcher would get severely dented in such a case and cast doubts over his acceptability as prime minister by the NDA allies. Modi himself may not be inclined to rule a gaggle of parties as he may balk at running a coalition where his writ would not run unchallenged as it does now.

As far as vote share is concerned, the UPA is at 41 percent, far ahead of the NDA which is at 36 percent, while others are expected to get 23 percent.

The survey pegs the reason behind the UPA alliance getting lesser seats despite a far higher vote share to the fact that the BJP vote base is concentrated at specific regions like the north, west and the north-west.

Scenario 3: NDA and its Southern Allies

In this scenario, the NDA placates its new alliance partners in the south – AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh.

With those allies in tow, the NDA+ is likely to garner 255 seats, while the UPA is expected to get 242 seats.

However, if TRS and BJD join the NDA in a post-poll alliance, the number could spike up to 282 seats.

In all scenarios, the NDA alliance is ahead of the UPA as far as seat share is concerned.

The survey further predicts that to up its chances in the final contest, the Congress will have to win in two of three upcoming state elections – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

The survey found Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to get the highest rating as prime ministerial candidate, with 49 percent polling – but he has slipped four points from January 2018, when he was favoured by 53 percent of those surveyed and has dropped a significant 16 percent from January 2017’s 65 percent.

The survey shows that Rahul Gandhi‘s popularity is on the rise, with his rating moving up steadily from a low of 10 per cent in the January 2017 MOTN to 22 percent in January 2018 and 27 per cent this time. The gap between Modi and him is still a large 22 percentage points, but it indicates that Rahul, as Congress president, is emerging as a challenger.

PM Modi slips on unemployment and price rise, will not get majority if polls held now: Survey

  • From India Today

None of the BJP leaders feature in the top three list of best chief ministers in the MOTN survey. While TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee topped the poll, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal were ranked third and fourth.

Manohar Parrikar, Vijay Rupani, ML Khattar, Devendra Fadnavis and Amarinder Singh are among the chief ministers who have gotten a lowly two per cent popularity mark in the poll.

An overwhelming 49 per cent of the respondents believe that the Opposition unity would translate into an electoral alliance against BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Moreover, the India Today poll shows Rahul Gandhi is the best person to lead such an alliance. He was backed by 46% of respondents.

However, in the case of a non-BJP, non-Congress front, Mamata Banerjee has the upper hand to lead the alliance, according to the survey.

Among the ministers in the Narendra Modi cabinet, Arun Jaitley has emerged as the best performer, according to the survey. Rajnath Singh and Sushma Swaraj follow close behind while Nitin Gadkari and Nirmala Sitharaman rank fourth and fifth, respectively.

Asked about Modi’s performance, 55 per cent of respondents voted favourably. However, this is a drop of six percentage points compared to MOTN January 2018. A similar percentage of respondents (56 per cent) are satisfied by the NDA government’s performance – a sharp drop from its peak of 71 per cent in the January 2017 MOTN.

Unemployment, price rise, and corruption remain the three biggest issues of concern for Indians. In fact, all three are issues that seem to have become bigger concerns since the January MOTN poll. Unemployment tops the list and 34 per cent of the respondents feel it is a burning issue, five percent more than in January 2018.

One of the biggest policy decisions of the Narendra Modi government, the pain of the shock November 2016 demonetisation exercise hasn’t gone away for India, according to MOTN July 2018. Nearly three-fourths of the respondents said that demonetisation caused more pain than gain; the number (73 per cent) is the same as what it was in MOTN January 2018 but is a steep rise from last year’s MOTN (61 per cent).

The India Today Group-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll was conducted by Karvy Insights Limited. A total of 12,100 interviews were conducted (68% in rural & 32% in urban areas) across 97 parliamentary constituencies in 194 assembly constituencies in 19 statesAndhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

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PM Modi speaks to Mark Carney as India and Canada push to strengthen ties

Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a telephone conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on October 13, with both leaders agreeing to strengthen India-Canada ties and pursue concrete outcomes across key areas of their strategic partnership.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a telephone conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday, October 13, as the two countries seek to strengthen bilateral relations and translate renewed diplomatic engagement into concrete outcomes.

Following the conversation, Modi said both leaders had agreed to build on the positive momentum in India-Canada ties and work towards progress across key areas of their strategic partnership.

In a post on X, the prime minister described the conversation as “warm and productive”. He identified trade, energy, technology, security and people-to-people ties as important areas for further cooperation.

Modi also said India and Canada were contributing towards a more stable and prosperous world.

India and Canada focus on trade and strategic cooperation

The latest conversation comes amid increased engagement between New Delhi and Ottawa across economic, security and diplomatic matters.

According to the Canadian Prime Minister’s Office, the two leaders welcomed the expansion of engagement over the past year, including cooperation in finance, defence and security, people-to-people ties and artificial intelligence.

The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to concluding negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) at the earliest opportunity. The proposed agreement is intended to support efforts to double two-way trade between India and Canada by 2030.

The leaders welcomed the ongoing Team Canada Trade Mission in India, led by Canadian International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu, along with the visit of Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand to New Delhi.

The engagements are aimed at advancing shared priorities, including trade, energy and people-to-people ties.

Security cooperation remains on the agenda

The conversation followed a bilateral security dialogue held in India the previous week as part of ongoing engagement between the two countries on security and law enforcement.

The Canadian Prime Minister’s Office said the two leaders welcomed the bilateral security dialogue held in India the previous week as part of ongoing security and law enforcement engagement at the National Security Advisor level. They also agreed to remain in close contact ahead of Modi’s planned visit to Canada in December.

The Canadian readout also said the two prime ministers discussed the effects of geopolitical instability on the Indo-Pacific region and the need for trusted partners in energy and agriculture.

Carney thanked Modi for his leadership in seeking a peaceful resolution to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

India-Canada relations seek to move beyond diplomatic tensions

Relations between India and Canada deteriorated sharply in 2023 after then Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged a potential Indian link to the killing of Khalistan separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada.

India rejected the accusation as absurd. In October 2024, India recalled its high commissioner and five other diplomats after Ottawa attempted to link them to the Nijjar case. New Delhi also expelled an equal number of Canadian diplomats.

Relations have since shown signs of improvement through renewed diplomatic engagement and cooperation in several areas. Both countries now have high commissioners posted in each other’s capitals.

Canadian Prime Minister Carney’s visit to India in March 2026 also contributed to renewed efforts to strengthen bilateral ties.

The latest conversation between Modi and Carney reflects the two governments’ stated intention to build on this progress, with trade negotiations, security cooperation and other shared priorities remaining central to their engagement.

Modi’s planned visit to Canada in December is expected to provide another opportunity for the two sides to advance their bilateral agenda.

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CJP leaders Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka, Ajinkya Shinde sent to 5-day judicial custody

Three CJP leaders, Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde, were placed under preventive arrest following a protest at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar over Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

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Three leaders of the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) — Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde — have been placed under preventive arrest in connection with a protest at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar, where demonstrators demanded the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

The three were detained early Tuesday after crossing police barricades and entering Jantar Mantar, which was recently removed from the list of designated protest venues. A case was registered against them over their alleged actions.

According to the police case, the charges include trespassing, violation of a bond, and obstructing a public official from performing official duties.

The three leaders were produced before a Special Court of the Executive Magistrate on Wednesday and could be sent to judicial custody at Tihar Jail.

Why CJP leaders protested at Jantar Mantar

The protest comes amid demonstrations by the CJP and opposition groups over alleged irregularities in the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

The protesters were demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. The controversy centres on allegations concerning the electoral roll revision exercise, which the Election Commission and the BJP have denied.

Jantar Mantar was recently removed from the list of designated protest venues in Delhi. The change followed an order naming alternative locations for demonstrations, prompting criticism from groups that want to hold protests at the established site.

CJP legal team raises concerns over detention

Ratna Singh, head of the CJP legal team, said in a post on X that Delhi Police had arrested Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde at Parliament Street Police Station in connection with the Jantar Mantar case.

Singh alleged that the three were brought to the police station in a private van at around 3 am and were not allowed to meet their lawyers until late at night.

She also raised concerns about the legal process and the possibility of the leaders being sent to judicial custody.

The allegations regarding access to legal counsel were made by the CJP legal team and should be distinguished from the charges registered by the police.

The arrests mark another development in the ongoing dispute over protests at Jantar Mantar and the CJP’s campaign against the Chief Election Commissioner over the SIR exercise.

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BJP focuses on religion as opposition pushes BDM strategy in UP

The BJP is emphasising religious issues ahead of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, while opposition parties are seeking to consolidate Backward, Dalit and Minority voters. Recent exchanges involving Yogi Adityanath, Akhilesh Yadav and Asaduddin Owaisi have added to the political contest over the state’s electoral narrative.

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Ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP is emphasising religious issues, while opposition parties are seeking to build a coalition of Backward, Dalit and Minority voters. The competing approaches have brought caste representation and religious messaging to the forefront of the state’s political discourse.

Recent temple-related controversies in Kashi, Ayodhya, Mathura and Sambhal have brought religious messaging back into the political conversation. The developments have also coincided with exchanges between Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav over possible electoral contests.

Yogi Adityanath, Akhilesh Yadav trade election challenges

The latest round of political exchanges followed Yogi Adityanath’s invocation of the “80-20” formula during the Rajya Sabha election. Akhilesh Yadav subsequently challenged the Chief Minister to contest from Ayodhya.

During his visit to Ayodhya, the Samajwadi Party president attended a Bhagwat Katha but did not visit the Ram Mandir for darshan. His visit, during which he attended a Bhagwat Katha but did not visit the Ram Mandir for darshan, became another point of political discussion.

The Chief Minister responded during a visit to Balrampur, asking Akhilesh Yadav to contest against him.

The exchanges continued as political leaders questioned the Samajwadi Party chief’s religious outreach. State minister Om Prakash Rajbhar asked why Yadav had not visited Mathura, while AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi challenged him to contest from Sambhal.

Responding to questions about the challenges, Akhilesh Yadav said the Chief Minister does not decide which candidates the parties nominate.

At a press conference in Lucknow, Yadav also remarked, “What could be better than getting the Chief Minister’s chair without even contesting the election?” His comment suggested that Adityanath might not contest the Assembly elections.

Adityanath, meanwhile, said he was pleased to have several options available to him.

BJP works on its own caste coalition

Alongside its emphasis on religious issues, the BJP is also seeking to broaden its social support base through caste representation.

During the Rajya Sabha elections, the party fielded three candidates from Backward Classes, two Dalits, two Brahmins and one Rajput. The Backward Class candidates included representatives of the Pal, Kurmi and Lodh communities.

The report describes the BJP’s selection of candidates from the Sonkar and Rawat communities as an attempt to attract support among the Gaur and Jatav Dalit vote banks. Its selection of two Brahmins and one Rajput was also part of its outreach to upper-caste voters.

These choices reflect the BJP’s efforts to build a social coalition that extends beyond its religious messaging as the state approaches the next Assembly election.

Akhilesh Yadav balances caste outreach with temple politics

The Samajwadi Party is also combining its BDM approach with religious outreach, described in the report as “soft Hindutva”.

Akhilesh Yadav is overseeing the construction of the Kedareshwar Temple in Etawah. When questioned about not visiting the Ram Mandir during his Ayodhya trip, he said he was waiting for the temple’s “Pran Pratishtha”, or consecration ceremony, implying that the ceremony held in 2024 did not count.

Yadav has also raised the issue of alleged theft of offerings at the Ram Temple, a move the report interprets as an attempt to appeal to Hindu voters.

The competing strategies indicate that caste representation, religious issues and temple-related controversies are all featuring in political messaging ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections.

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