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Employment situation grim, says CMIE; Rural wages drop, says RBI report

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Employment situation grim, says CMIE; Rural wages drop, says RBI report

Labour participation and employment rates in India are around their lowest levels, says a report of Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) which produces economic and business databases.

And, while employment is at its lowest, rural wages have reduced dramatically since 2014 under Narendra Modi government, making it a period of distress according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

According to an article by Mahesh Vyas on CMIE website, the employment situation continues to remain grim in the country.

According to CMIE, the unemployment rate continues to remain high compared to the levels a year ago when they ranged closer to 4 per cent although it fell slightly to 5.9 per cent in April 2018 compared to the over 6 per cent rate seen in the preceding two months.

April began with rising unemployment rates of over 7 per cent, but then the rates moved decidedly lower in the second half of the month.

Labour participation rate (LPR) declined in April 2018. At 43.1 per cent the LPR in April was among the lowest. In the past 28 months, (since the CMIE started measuring LPR), this was the second-lowest LPR level.

“The low LPR and high unemployment rate combine to give us a low employment rate in April 2018. The employment rate was 40.7 per cent during the month. This is a small improvement over the 40.5 per cent level of March 2018. But, March and April this year mark the lowest employment rates recorded since January 2016 when we began these measurements,” said Vyas.

Here are some points he makes:

– The estimated employed persons in the country was 403.2 million and the unemployed who were actively looking for a job during the month was 25.1 million.

–  An additional 9.5 million were unemployed and willing to work but were not actively looking for a job.

– The total workforce willing to work and was waiting for jobs to become available therefore was of the order of 35 million.

– Large numbers of labour force quit the labour markets post demonetisation and have not returned to the labour markets. It is likely that when conditions improve these could come back. If we add these, then the workforce that is willing to work but does not have a job is much larger.

Vyas describes the current situation, particularly in urban India, as “sombre”.

Noting that the number of applicants for a single job often runs into several thousands, Vyas says: “Although the overall unemployment rate fell in April, it rose in urban India – from 6.5 per cent in March to 6.6 per cent in April. Labour participation rate fell from 41.1 per cent to 40.8 per cent. And, the employment rate fell to its lowest level of 38.1 per cent.”

The employment rate had touched a new low of 38.4 per cent in March 2018 itself. However, in April, it fell further to 38.1 per cent.

The working age Vyas takes into consideration are all persons above the age of 15 years. In September 2016, over 41 per cent of such people were working.

Employment in urban India fell to an 11-month low in April 2018.

However, says Vyas, the month’s data also seems to suggest a pause in the growing employment in urban India seen in the preceding six months. This rising employment had stabilised the employment rate at around 40 per cent after seeing a fall in the preceding months.

At the same time, a RBI report released last week (April 25) talked of a sharp decline in rural wages since 2014. “During the last 10 year period, a high growth phase in rural wages from 2007-08 to 2012-13 was followed by a phase of significant deceleration,” the RBI report said.

Between October 2007 and October 2013, the report noted, wages in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors grew at 17% and 15%, respectively. Since November 2014, however, agricultural and non-agricultural sector wages grew at only 5.6% and 6.5%, respectively.

Employment situation grim, says CMIE; Rural wages drop, says RBI reportPhase I (Jan 2002-Sep 2007)

The first phase spanned from January 2002 to September 2007, when the average growth in rural nominal wages remained around 4 per cent, while the average rural inflation stayed around 4.5 per cent. As a result, there were extended spells when growth in real wages stayed in the negative territory. This period has been analysed quite extensively in the literature. Several authors have also termed this phase as the period of agrarian distress, a lot of which was attributed to poor agricultural performance and lower employment opportunities outside agriculture (Himanshu, 2006; Abraham, 2009).

Phase II (Oct 2007-Oct 2013)

This phase covers the period from October 2007 to October 2013. During this phase, the average growth in nominal agricultural and non-agricultural wages stood at around 17 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively, surpassing rural inflation which averaged at around 10 per cent. Evidently, there were several months when growth in real wages reached such levels that were not a regular phenomenon, at least never observed in the preceding decade.

Phase III (Nov 2014- Oct 2017)

This is the current phase which began from November 2014. Notwithstanding data limitations (as mentioned in section III) one cannot ignore the fact that rural wage growth has recorded significant deceleration during this phase. This phase is also characterized by low inflation occasionally surpassing growth in nominal rural wages, pushing real wage growth to the negative territory. For obvious reasons, such movements in rural wages after a prolonged period of boom has attracted the attention of policy research. Again, this phase has been labelled as a period of rural distress. However, if we consider average growth in rural wages and inflation, we do not find a significant gap between the two. Average rural inflation during phase III so far is around 4.0 per cent, whereas average growth rates in nominal agricultural and non-agricultural wages are 5.6 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively.

A whole host of factors including the global slowdown in growth, collapse of international primary commodity prices, and major contraction in food prices led to the decline in growth of rural wages, according to the RBI report.

The Indian economy also suffered two consecutive droughts in financial years 2015 and 2016, which wreaked havoc in rural India, said a report in Quartz India.

The ineffective implementation of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Generation Scheme (MGNREGS) in recent years has also contributed to the decline in farm income, the Quartz report said, on basis of RBI report.

Moreover, growth in the construction sector, which saw a significant pick up during 2000 and 2012 and was the major driver of rural non-farm employment, slowed down in recent years.

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Google reduces 10% of managerial staff to enhance efficiency and ‘Googleyness’

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Google has pruned its managerial workforce, reducing it by 10% in a move aimed at streamlining operations and redefining its corporate culture in a year-long push. This pruning, part of a broader efficiency drive, includes a 10% cut at manager, director, and vice president levels.

Reports indicate that during an all-hands meeting, CEO Sundar Pichai outlined the rationale behind the decision, emphasizing the need for efficiency and redefining the company’s core values, often referred to as “Googleyness.”

A Google spokesperson revealed that some affected employees would transition to individual contributor roles, while others faced role eliminations. These adjustments come amidst growing challenges in the tech industry, particularly with rapid developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and fierce competition from rivals like OpenAI.

The AI race and Google’s response

The tech giant has recently intensified its focus on AI innovations, unveiling Gemini 2.0, its most advanced AI model yet. Sundar Pichai described the new model as heralding a “new agentic era” in which AI systems are designed to comprehend and make decisions about the world.

This announcement boosted Google’s stock, which surged by over 4% following the news, a day after a 3.5% increase attributed to breakthroughs in its quantum chip technology.

Previous layoffs in 2024

The latest layoffs mark Google’s fourth round of job cuts in 2024. Earlier in January, Google eliminated several hundred positions in its global advertisements team. In June, its cloud unit also saw workforce reductions. By January of this year, Google had already cut 12,000 roles, equivalent to 6.4% of its global workforce.

In a letter addressed to employees during the earlier layoffs, Pichai took responsibility for the decisions, stating that the company had experienced dramatic growth that required adjustments to sustain operations. Despite efforts, he acknowledged the process could have been managed better.

Redefining ‘Googleyness’

At the same meeting, Pichai stressed the need to revisit and reshape the concept of “Googleyness.” This term, often used to define the company’s unique culture and hiring philosophy, will now play a pivotal role in transforming corporate dynamics to adapt to new challenges.

The adjustments highlight Google’s commitment to staying competitive while reshaping its operational framework to remain aligned with its long-term vision.

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Zomato introduces Food Rescue feature

“We don’t encourage order cancellation at Zomato, because it leads to a tremendous amount of food wastage,” he said.

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Zomato has introduced a new feature called Food Rescue to minimise food wastage, announced the food delivery platform CEO Deepinder Goyal on Sunday.

Announcing the new feature on X, Goyal said the decision, to introduce the new feature, was taken to prevent the tremendous amount of food wastage due to order cancellation on the platform.

Committed to minimising food wastage, the Zomato boss said: “We don’t encourage order cancellation at Zomato, because it leads to a tremendous amount of food wastage.”

Goyal said despite having stringent policies, and a no-refund policy for cancellations, more than 4 lakh perfectly good orders get cancelled, for various reasons by customers.

He said the top concern for the online food delivery platform, the restaurant industry, and even the customers who cancel these orders, is to somehow save the food from going to waste.

With the launch of the new feature, Food Rescue, cancelled orders will now pop up for nearby customers, who can grab them at an unbeatable price, in their original untampered packaging, and receive them in just minutes.

According to Zomato, the cancelled order will pop up on the app for customers within a 3 km radius of the delivery partner carrying the order. To ensure freshness, the option to claim will only be available for a few minutes.

The online food delivery platform will not keep any proceeds except the required government taxes and the amount paid by the new customer will be shared with the original customer (if they made payment online) and with the restaurant partner.

Orders containing items sensitive to distances or temperature such as ice creams, shakes, smoothies, and certain perishable items, will not be eligible for Food Rescue.

Restaurant partners will continue to receive compensation for the original cancelled order, plus a portion of the amount paid by the new customer if the order is claimed, the company said. “Most restaurants have opted in for this feature, and can opt of it easily whenever they want, directly from their control panels,” it added.

The delivery partners will be compensated fully for the entire trip, from the initial pickup to the final drop-off at the new customer’s location, it said.

Food Rescue will show up on the customers’ home page automatically if there’s a cancelled order available for them to grab. The Customers have to refresh the home page to check for any newly available orders which need to be rescued.

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Adani, Torrent compete to purchase Gujarat Titans from CVC Capital

The probable sale of the Gujarat Titans, with the lock-in period coming to a close, will therefore be a defining moment in the changing face of IPL investments.

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The Adani Group and Torrent Group are currently negotiating a deal with private equity firm CVC Capital Partners to offload a controlling stake in the Indian Premier League franchise Gujarat Titans. According to sources, close to the development, reports say CVC Capital Partners will be looking to sell a majority interest while retaining a minority share in the franchise.

This becomes important because it is aligned with the end of the lock-in period by the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI), which restricts any new teams from selling stakes until February 2025. The three-year-old franchise Gujarat Titans is reportedly worth $1 billion to $1.5 billion. CVC Capital Partners had paid ₹5,625 crore for the franchise in 2021.

A source close to the development pointed out that IPL franchises have attracted many investors’ interest since the league has proved an asset with a good reputation for money-making capabilities and cash flows. This growing interest of investors embodies the financial value and stability that come with the IPL franchises.

Gautam Adani, who owns teams in the Women’s Premier League and UAE-based International League T20, is understood to be one of the serious buyers. In 2023, Adani’s group won the Ahmedabad franchise in the WPL with a bid of Rs1,289 crore, the highest offer. His interests in this potential deal signal his commitment to expanding his footprint in the cricketing world.

Arvinder Singh, COO of Gujarat Titans, exuded confidence in the financial future of the franchise. He said the team was confident of turning profitable in the next media rights cycle, referring to even the original ten IPL franchises that took four to five years to turn profitable. He added confidently that the Gujarat Titans would not only turn profitable but significantly enhance in brand value.
 
This surging interest of investors in it is evidence of the growing financial attractiveness of IPL franchises, driven by healthy revenue streams and an increasing global footprint. The probable sale of the Gujarat Titans, with the lock-in period coming to a close, will therefore be a defining moment in the changing face of IPL investments.

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