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BJP would win if elections were held now, Modi most acceptable PM says a survey

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BJP would win if elections were held now, Modi most acceptable PM says a survey

Modi government would return to power but with a reduced margin if Lok Sabha elections are held now, says a survey by ABP News – C Voter.

The survey comes at a time the government is facing severe criticism over rising fuel prices, sinking of rupee and allegations of corruption in the Rafale deal. These do not seem to have affected the voter’s choice.

Narendra Modi was still voted to be the ideal Prime Ministerial candidate, though the worrying sign for the BJP is his popularity waning steadily over the last one year by six percent. Last year, Modi garnered 69 percent of the votes. Close to 47 percent of the citizens in the survey felt that the Narendra Modi government should not be given another chance in 2019.

By contrast, the popularity of Congress President Rahul Gandhi jumped six percent since the survey was last conducted in January. His vote share at that time was 28 percent.

The “Desh Ka Mood” survey noted that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would have secured 276 of the 543 seats, a drop of 60 from the 336 seats with which the ruling alliance won the general elections in 2014.

Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would have won 112 seats.

The survey results predicted a vote share of 38 per cent for NDA and a vote share of 25 per cent for UPA.

Others may bag as many as 155 seats with a vote share of 37 per cent, the survey predicted.

State and region wise:

In Uttar Pradesh, if the UPA forms a mahagatbandhan, it is estimated to win more than half the seats. But without the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party alliance, the Congress party could be the biggest loser.

In case of a Congress-SP-BSP alliance, the UPA would win 56 seats, with the NDA only winning 24 seats.

Left alone, the UPA would only secure two seats if contesting alone, with the NDA to get 36 seats, and the BSP-SP alliance would get 42 seats.

If Mayawati opts to fight alone, then the NDA is slated to snatch the lion’s share of 70 seats in UP while Congress may get just two and the Others to get eight in total. BJP had won 71 seats in the previous elections.

For its prediction in Bihar, the ABP-CVoter estimated a close call if the Congress party forms a mahagathbandhan, and if the NDA alliance stays then it will win the maximum number of seats. If LJP and RLSP decide to cobble up an alliance, then NDA may get 22 seats while the UPA may get 18. If the NDA alliance remains intact then it may gather a massive 31 seats leaving the rest 9 for the Opposition parties.

In Maharashtra, if the Shiv Sena joined hands with the BJP and all the other parties contested on their own, the NDA would have secured the state. Things could go the other way around if the Congress aligned with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena does not align with the NDA. If Congress, NCP stitch an alliance and the Shiv Sena opting to contest alone then UPA’s tally may go up to 30 making NDA win 16 seats. Shiv Sena may just end up with 2 seats in this scenario. What if a Cong-NCP vs BJP-Sena battle emerges in Maharashtra? NDA may then win 36 seats while 12 may go to UPA. If all parties fight alone, it would be BJP 22, Sena 7, Cong 11, NCP 8.

The southeren states would pose a tough nut to crack for the NDA as they would not be able to garner a majority. Of the 129 seats in the states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka, the NDA would have secured 21 seats, with the UPA bagging 32 seats and the regional parties taking up the rest.

Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh would continue to be BJP bastions, with the NDA bagging nine of the 11 seats in Chattisgarh, and 23 of the 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh.

According to the opinion poll, NDA is seen getting eighteen seats in the 25 seats up for grabs in Rajasthan. The three states continue to remain the strongholds of the saffron party.

About, Odisha (21 seats), the survey notes that BJP is seeking to brighten its prospects in the eastern state where speculations of PM Narendra Modi contesting on a seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are rife. If that happens, BJP is likely to get 13 seats, 6 may go to BJD while Congress may take just two in its kitty.

In the north-eastern states, NDA is likely to get 18 seats out of the stipulated 25. Six are seen going to the UPA.

A landslide victory is predicted for the UPA in Punjab while neighbouring Haryana is seen going the BJP way.  The survey says Delhi will be completely swept by the BJP.

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Amit Shah counters delimitation concerns, says southern states to gain Lok Sabha seats

Amit Shah assures Parliament that southern states will gain Lok Sabha seats after delimitation, countering opposition criticism during the women’s reservation debate.

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Amit Shah

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Thursday addressed concerns over the proposed delimitation exercise, asserting in the Lok Sabha that southern states will not lose representation but instead see an increase in their number of seats.

His remarks came during a heated debate linked to the implementation of women’s reservation, where opposition parties have raised fears that population-based delimitation could reduce the political weight of southern states.

Shah rejected these claims, calling them misleading, and said the proposed framework ensures fairness while expanding the overall strength of the Lok Sabha.

Seat count to rise with expansion of Lok Sabha

The government has indicated that the total number of Lok Sabha seats could increase significantly as part of the delimitation process. In this expanded House, the combined representation of southern states is expected to rise from 129 seats at present to around 195 seats.

Shah emphasised that no state will lose seats in absolute terms, and the exercise is designed to reflect population changes while maintaining balance across regions.

State-wise projections shared in Parliament

During his address, Shah also provided indicative figures for individual southern states, suggesting notable increases in representation. According to the projections:

  • Tamil Nadu could see its seats rise substantially
  • Kerala, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh are also expected to gain additional seats
  • Karnataka’s representation may increase as well

These figures were presented to counter the argument that delimitation would disproportionately favour northern states.

Political debate intensifies over linkage with women’s quota

The delimitation exercise has been closely linked to the rollout of women’s reservation, which proposes one-third seats for women in Parliament and state assemblies.

Opposition leaders have questioned this linkage, arguing that tying reservation to delimitation could delay its implementation and raise federal concerns. Some leaders have also warned that the move could impact national unity if apprehensions among states are not addressed.

The government, however, maintains that the reforms are necessary to ensure equitable representation and to align the electoral system with demographic realities.

Centre dismisses ‘false narrative’ on southern states

Shah reiterated that concerns about southern states losing influence are unfounded. He said the delimitation process will increase representation across regions and described the criticism as a “false narrative” aimed at creating confusion.

The issue is expected to remain a key flashpoint as Parliament continues discussions on the women’s reservation framework and related legislative changes.

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PM Modi assures no discrimination in women’s quota, delimitation debate intensifies in Parliament

PM Narendra Modi has assured that women’s reservation will be implemented without discrimination, amid a heated debate over delimitation in Parliament.

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PM modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured that there will be no discrimination in the implementation of women’s reservation, as Parliament witnessed a sharp debate over the proposed linkage between the quota and delimitation exercise.

During the ongoing special session, the government reiterated its commitment to ensuring fair representation while addressing concerns raised by opposition parties regarding the timing and structure of the legislation.

The proposed framework aims to reserve 33 percent of seats for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies. However, its implementation is tied to a fresh delimitation exercise, which is expected after the next census.

Opposition questions timing and intent

Opposition leaders have raised concerns that linking the women’s quota to delimitation could delay its implementation. They argue that the process of redrawing constituencies may push the actual rollout further into the future.

The issue has triggered a broader political confrontation, with multiple parties questioning whether the move could alter representation across states.

Some critics have also alleged that the delimitation exercise could disproportionately benefit certain regions based on population, a charge the government has rejected.

Government reiterates commitment to fair implementation

Responding to these concerns, the Centre has maintained that the reforms are necessary to ensure accurate and updated representation based on population data.

Leaders from the ruling side have repeatedly emphasized that the process will be carried out transparently and without bias. The assurance that there will be “no discrimination” is aimed at addressing fears among states and opposition parties.

The debate marks a key moment in Parliament, with both sides engaging in intense exchanges over one of the most significant electoral reforms in recent years.

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Give all tickets to Muslim women, Amit Shah says, attacking Akhilesh Yadav on sub-quota demand

A sharp exchange between Amit Shah and Akhilesh Yadav in Parliament over sub-quota for Muslim women highlights key divisions on women’s reservation implementation.

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A heated exchange broke out in Parliament during discussions on the women’s reservation framework, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav locking horns over the demand for a sub-quota for Muslim women.

The debate unfolded as the government pushed forward key legislative measures to implement 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.

Akhilesh Yadav argued that the proposed reservation must ensure representation for women from marginalised communities, including Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Muslim women. He said that without such provisions, large sections could remain excluded from political participation.

He also questioned the timing of the bill, alleging that the Centre was avoiding a caste census. According to him, a census would lead to renewed demands for caste-based reservations, which the government is reluctant to address.

Government rejects religion-based quota

Responding to the demand, Amit Shah made it clear that reservation based on religion is not permitted under the Constitution.

He stated that any proposal to provide quota to Muslims on religious grounds would be unconstitutional, firmly rejecting the idea of a separate sub-quota for Muslim women within the broader reservation framework.

The government has maintained that the existing framework already includes provisions for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) women within the overall reservation structure.

Wider political divide over implementation

The issue of sub-categorisation within the women’s quota has emerged as a major flashpoint, even as most opposition parties broadly support the idea of women’s reservation.

Samajwadi Party leaders reiterated that their support for the bill depends on inclusion of OBC and minority women, while the government continues to defend its constitutional position.

The debate is part of a broader discussion during the special Parliament session, where multiple bills linked to delimitation and implementation of the women’s quota are being taken up.

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