By Vickram Kilpady

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is set to win elections to the 243-member Bihar Assembly, exit polls said today as voting closed in the second phase for 122 constituencies. The first phase of voting for 121 seats took place on November 6. Votes will be counted on November 14, Friday.

As expected, a majority of the exit polls showed the NDA far ahead of the majority mark of 122. Matrize predicted 157 seats, P-Marq 152, Dainik Bhaskar 145-160, People’s Pulse 133-159; the lowest numbers for the NDA were from Chanakya Strategies which put it at 130-138.
Of the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagathbandhan that includes the Congress, the highest prediction was 108 from Chanakya. The RJD had been the party with the most seats in the last election and pollsters expect the BJP to beat it this time. But since all exit polls put out a disclaimer, the results may vary. Exit polls have also got it calamitously wrong at times.

The Bihar campaign has been fought by the Mahagathbandhan challenging the Nitish Kumar government, under whose leadership the campaign has been waged by the BJP. The allegations of vote chori were also made against the Election Commission by former Congress president Rahul Gandhi in the run-up to the polls. The NDA government in Bihar also released several instalments of a women’s scheme after the model code of conduct came into force though the scheme itself was launched a few days ahead of the announcement of elections.
The campaign from the NDA-end has been shrill, blaming the Mahagathbandhan constituents for letting in Bangladeshi infiltrators to inflate voter rolls. This is apart from the usual run-of-the-mill dynasty barbs at the Lalu Yadav and the Nehru-Gandhi clan, and the jungle raj jibe that recalls the lawlessness of Bihar under Lalu and after.

Whoever wins on Friday, the one noteworthy point from the Bihar elections which will cast a shadow across India is the fact that the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter lists seems to have defeated the groundswell expected against incumbent Nitish Kumar. Such electoral fine-tuning is likely to be replicated in the states going to the polls in May 2026, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

As the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 concluded with record voter turnout, multiple exit polls released on Tuesday indicated that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to return to power in the state. The final results will be declared on November 14.

NDA ahead across multiple surveys

According to at least eight exit polls, the NDA is projected to secure between 130 and 167 seats in the 243-member assembly. The Mahagathbandhan (MGB), led by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav in alliance with Congress, is expected to finish second with 70 to 108 seats. Most surveys have shown the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of Prashant Kishor failing to make a breakthrough, with projections ranging between zero and four seats.

Surveys by Chanakya Strategies, P-Marg, JVC, People’s Insight, and others consistently show a strong lead for the NDA. P-Marg’s exit poll projected 142–162 seats for the NDA, while JVC gave the alliance 135–150. Chanakya predicted 130–138 seats, while People’s Insight projected a comfortable win for the ruling alliance.

RJD-Congress alliance struggles to close gap

The opposition coalition—comprising RJD, Congress, and Left parties—appears unable to replicate its strong 2015 performance, when RJD had emerged as the single largest party. In this election, the Mahagathbandhan’s projected tally ranges from 80 to 108 seats, according to various polls.

Key NDA leaders such as Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and senior JD(U) minister Bijendra Prasad Yadav are contesting from their traditional bastions, while RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav aims to break the two-decade-long dominance of Nitish Kumar’s leadership.

Record voter turnout marks the election

Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14% across both phases, with districts such as Kishanganj, Katihar, and Purnia witnessing over 70% polling. Voting for the first phase was held on November 6, and the second phase covered 122 constituencies on November 11.

Exit poll accuracy in question

In 2020, most exit polls had predicted a close contest, with some forecasting a win for Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD. However, the NDA eventually secured a majority with 125 seats. The accuracy of this year’s exit polls will be tested when votes are counted on November 14.

Bihar witnessed an unprecedented voter response in the second and final phase of the 2025 Assembly Elections, recording over 60% turnout across 122 constituencies. The phase is seen as crucial for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s government, as several key ministers and allies contested for re-election.

Record voter participation across 20 districts

According to the Election Commission, voter turnout stood at 60.4% by 3 pm, marking the highest-ever participation in the state’s history. Over 3.70 crore voters, including 1.74 crore women, were eligible to vote across 45,399 polling centres.

This round featured 1,302 candidates, of which 136 are women, contesting from constituencies spread across West Champaran, East Champaran, Sitamarhi, Madhubani, Supaul, Araria, and Kishanganj, all bordering Nepal.

Major leaders and candidates in the fray

As many as 12 ministers from Nitish Kumar’s cabinet contested in this phase, including Bijendra Prasad Yadav (Supaul), Sumit Kumar Singh (Chakai), Mohd Zama Khan (Chainpur), Leshi Singh (Dhamdaha), and Renu Devi (Bettiah), among others.

The phase also tested the electoral influence of smaller NDA allies — Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha — both contesting six seats each. Family members of both leaders, Deepa Manjhi and Snehalata Kushwaha, are also in the fray.

Seemanchal region holds key significance

Four districts in the Seemanchal region, known for its substantial Muslim population, went to polls, making it a decisive battleground for both the ruling NDA and the opposition Mahagathbandhan.

Among the most-watched seats is Kahalgaon in Bhagalpur, witnessing a four-cornered contest involving RJD, Congress, JD(U) and an Independent candidate — BJP rebel Pawan Kumar Yadav.

Prominent faces and security measures

Other key contestants include state Congress chief Rajesh Kumar (Kutumba), former assembly speaker Uday Narayan Chaudhary (RJD), CPI-ML leader Mehboob Alam, Commonwealth Games gold medallist Shreyasi Singh (BJP), and Bhojpuri actor-singer Ritesh Pandey (Jan Suraaj Party).

To ensure smooth conduct of polling, the state deployed over four lakh security personnel across sensitive areas.

Bihar had already recorded a 65% voter turnout in Phase 1, indicating a strong engagement by the electorate this year. Counting of votes will be held on November 14, followed by the release of exit polls later today.