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IOD may yet derail a good monsoon

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IOD may yet derail a good monsoon

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]IMD and private forecasters have predicted normal rainfall this year, but meteorologists are watching out to see how this little-known climatic phenomenon plays out

By Ratnadeep Choudhary

Both the Indian Meteorological Department and the private forecaster Skymet have confirmed that the disruptive El Niño won’t impact the Indian monsoon this year. “The distribution of rainfall is expected to be good… the country will receive 96 per cent of Long Period Average,” IMD chief KJ Ramesh said. However, it may be too early to celebrate. The Indian Ocean Dipole, a little-known weather phenomenon, may yet affect the farmer’s sole saviour. Predictions made by the IMD have often been far from accurate over the years.

Nicknamed the Christ Child, El Niño is an unusual warm current in the Pacific Ocean. It is a result of the oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. During El-Niño, the cold trade winds are replaced by warm winds. It disrupts climatic conditions in various parts of the world and is known to have an adverse impact on the Indian monsoon as well.

Indian Ocean Dipole is the phenomenon involving different temperatures along the western and eastern sides of the Indian Ocean at Arabian Sea and near Indonesia. A positive IOD generally has a favourable impact on the monsoon and it also reverses the impact of El Niño.

IMD has predicted that the impact of IOD seems neutral this monsoon. The department is closely monitoring sea surface conditions and would release its next forecast early June.

Scientifically, summer monsoon rainfall and its correlation with IOD are not conclusively proven. However, statistical data of IMD shows that in four of the 15 El Niño years, IOD was positive. In three of these (positive-IOD) years, rainfall was normal—96-104 percent of the predicted rainfall.

As the Indian economy is an agriculture-driven economy which depends on monsoon rainfall, a normal monsoon means that food prices remain under check. A total of 16 percent of the Indian GDP is dependent on monsoon and 50 percent of India’s 1.2 billion strong population is involved in agricultural production.

But a bad monsoon would affect other sectors as well. Industries such as fertilizer, food processing and agro-machinery have a considerable stake in a good monsoon. A positive monsoon would mean cut in interest rates by the RBI and the negative impact could lead to a rise in the overall inflation. Also, if the GST bill is passed by the parliament in the monsoon session, it would complement a good monsoon and would contribute to the growth of the GDP of the country.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Delhi air pollution: GRAP 3 invoked in capital, construction halted

The construction work, except the projects needed for national security, healthcare, and certain public infrastructure work, will be banned.

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To prevent further deterioration of air quality in the national capital region, the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) on Thursday decided to invoke Stage III of the GRAP in Delhi NCR with effect from 8:OO am on November 15 in addition to all actions under Stage I and II.

According to the statement released by CAQM, the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (GNCTD) will not permit BS-III and below diesel-operated LCVs (goods carriers) registered outside Delhi, to enter Delhi, except those carrying essential commodities providing essential services.

The construction work, except the projects needed for national security, healthcare, and certain public infrastructure work, will be banned.

The GRAP III measures to mitigate the effects of air pollution in Delhi NCR include intensifying the frequency of mechanised sweeping of roads, daily water sprinkling along with dust suppressants, before peak traffic hours, on roads and right of ways including hotspots, heavy traffic corridors and proper disposal of the collected dust in designated sites/ landfills.

All demolition works, earthwork for excavation and filling including boring and drilling works, and any transportation of demolition waste are banned with the implementation of GRAP III measures to fight air pollution.

With the implementation of Stage 3, the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi may decide on discontinuing physical classes in schools for children up to Class V and conducting classes in an online mode following the implementation of the  GRAP III.

Earlier in the day, Delhi Environment Minister Gopal Rai said the third phase of the Graded Response Action (GRAP 3) will not be imposed for now. He said that for the first time, the Air Quality Index has gone above 400 in Delhi.

Pointing out the reason behind severe category air quality after poor and very poor AQI since October 14, the Environment Minister said that meteorologists have reported that due to snowfall in the mountains, a drop in the temperature of Delhi has been recorded. Owing to this, dry conditions have been created in the morning and evening in the entirety of North India, he said. 

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In Maharashtra, Congress chief Kharge says PM Modi’s ideologues worship Gandhi’s murderer Godse

“Hey… Modiji, your people praise and worship Godse, the murderer of Mahatma Gandhi, and you say bad things about Congress?” Kharge said.

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Retorting sharply on Prime Minister Narendra Modi after he accused the grand old party of spreading lies, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge on Thursday said Modi’s ideologues praise and worship Godse, the murderer of Mahatma Gandhi.

Addressing a rally in Maharashtra’s Igatpuri, Kharge said Modi accuses the Congress of lying, which has sacrificed for the independence of the country and led the country on the path of development.

He said PM Modi who used to talk about a Congress-free India, about crossing 400 marks in Lok Sabha elections, now even to stand his government he needed two legs – Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister and TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu, and Bihar Chief Minister and J(D)U head Nitish Kumar.

“Hey… Modiji, your people praise and worship Godse, the murderer of Mahatma Gandhi, and you say bad things about Congress?” Kharge said.

He accused BJP of recovering the money from the public it spent to form the Mahayuti government in Maharashtra. “This government could not do anything for the poor for whom it had promised to work. All BJP leaders including Narendra Modi and Amit Shah lie. Therefore, the people of Maharashtra have decided that this time they will form the Maha Vikas Aghadi government here.”

On BJP’s accusition of the guarantees of the Congress government a lie, Kharge said his party is fulfilling its promises everywhere.

Underlining the numbers of promises made by PM Modi including black money, 15 lakh rupees in everyone’s account, 2 crore jobs every year and farmers’ double income, the Congress chief said nothing was done, which means all the promises of Modi were nothing but a lie.

Addressing a press conference in Pune, Kharge said: “What are they going to give to Pune, what will they give to the farmers of the state, the discussion should be on that. The discussion in the elections should be on work. But the BJP government has no focus on controlling inflation, providing employment and investment.”

Kharge alleged that the investment coming to Maharashtra is being shifted to other states, which is not right. “On this, I believe that the projects that should go to Maharashtra should be given here and the projects that are meant for Gujarat should go to them.”

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Madhya Pradesh post-poll violence: Dalit village set on fire, BJP, Congress blame each other

Jitu Patwari, Congress state president and BJP state president VD Sharma sat on a dharna near the ECI’s office in Bhopal, accusing each other’s party of fake voting and booth capturing.

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Madhya Pradesh post-poll violence: Dalit village set on fire, BJP, Congress blame each other

In an horrifying incident following the byelection in Vijaypur Assembly seat in Madhya Pradesh, some people reportedly set fire to a Dalit village. The incident took place in Gohta village after voting concluded late on Wednesday.

Reports said that the accused created a ruckus in the village, pelted stones and vandalised properties. Several terrified villagers took shelter at a local police station. It is alleged that despite the severity of the situation, the police have not taken any action against the perpetrators of the crime.

However, Vijaypur police station in-charge Pappu Singh Yadav asserted that police teams reached the spot and brought the situation under control. The Police station-in-charge added that violence occurred following conflict between two groups. Reportedly, the byelection in the aforesaid constituency was conducted amid mild violence, protests and allegations of booth capturing on Wednesday.

Following the ruckus between two groups, nearly three people were injured in the Veerpur area in Vijaypur. The fight broke out over the denial of voting rights. The candidates of both ruling and Opposition (BJP’s Ramniwas Rawat and Congress’ nominee Mukesh Malhotra) for Vijapur by-polls were put up at a guest house during the election owing to security reasons.

The chaos in Vijaypur unfolded two days before the byelections when a group of criminals opened fire at villagers, injuring three residents. Additionally, few back-to-back incidents of violence sparked outrage and calls for immediate intervention to ascertain justice and security for the affected families.

The byelections in this constituency under the Morena Lok Sabha constituency of Gwalior-Chambal region were necessitated after sitting Congress MLA Ramniwas Rawat resigned from the party and state Assembly. Later, he joined the ruling BJP and was elevated as state forest minister in Chief Minister Mohan Yadav’s Cabinet. On Wednesday, Vijaypur recorded 75 per cent voter turnout.

The tussle between BJP and Congress workers began with the start of the voting, and continued till the end. Furthermore, Jitu Patwari, Congress state president and BJP state president VD Sharma sat on a dharna near the ECI’s office in Bhopal, accusing each other’s party of fake voting and booth capturing.

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