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IOD may yet derail a good monsoon

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IOD may yet derail a good monsoon

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]IMD and private forecasters have predicted normal rainfall this year, but meteorologists are watching out to see how this little-known climatic phenomenon plays out

By Ratnadeep Choudhary

Both the Indian Meteorological Department and the private forecaster Skymet have confirmed that the disruptive El Niño won’t impact the Indian monsoon this year. “The distribution of rainfall is expected to be good… the country will receive 96 per cent of Long Period Average,” IMD chief KJ Ramesh said. However, it may be too early to celebrate. The Indian Ocean Dipole, a little-known weather phenomenon, may yet affect the farmer’s sole saviour. Predictions made by the IMD have often been far from accurate over the years.

Nicknamed the Christ Child, El Niño is an unusual warm current in the Pacific Ocean. It is a result of the oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. During El-Niño, the cold trade winds are replaced by warm winds. It disrupts climatic conditions in various parts of the world and is known to have an adverse impact on the Indian monsoon as well.

Indian Ocean Dipole is the phenomenon involving different temperatures along the western and eastern sides of the Indian Ocean at Arabian Sea and near Indonesia. A positive IOD generally has a favourable impact on the monsoon and it also reverses the impact of El Niño.

IMD has predicted that the impact of IOD seems neutral this monsoon. The department is closely monitoring sea surface conditions and would release its next forecast early June.

Scientifically, summer monsoon rainfall and its correlation with IOD are not conclusively proven. However, statistical data of IMD shows that in four of the 15 El Niño years, IOD was positive. In three of these (positive-IOD) years, rainfall was normal—96-104 percent of the predicted rainfall.

As the Indian economy is an agriculture-driven economy which depends on monsoon rainfall, a normal monsoon means that food prices remain under check. A total of 16 percent of the Indian GDP is dependent on monsoon and 50 percent of India’s 1.2 billion strong population is involved in agricultural production.

But a bad monsoon would affect other sectors as well. Industries such as fertilizer, food processing and agro-machinery have a considerable stake in a good monsoon. A positive monsoon would mean cut in interest rates by the RBI and the negative impact could lead to a rise in the overall inflation. Also, if the GST bill is passed by the parliament in the monsoon session, it would complement a good monsoon and would contribute to the growth of the GDP of the country.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

MK Stalin predicts frequent PM Modi visits to Tamil Nadu before assembly election

MK Stalin has said Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Tamil Nadu more often ahead of the Assembly election, calling the tours politically motivated and questioning the Centre’s support to the state.

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MK Stalin

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. K. Stalin has predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will increase his visits to the state as the Assembly election, expected in April or May, draws closer.

Speaking ahead of the polls, the DMK president said the Prime Minister has already begun touring Tamil Nadu and is likely to visit frequently in the coming months. He claimed that such visits could create discomfort within the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), as alliance partners may fear the political impact of repeated appearances.

Stalin calls visit politically motivated

The Chief Minister described the Prime Minister’s scheduled programmes in the state as “politically motivated”. PM Modi is set to attend various events in Madurai in southern Tamil Nadu, including the inauguration of the first phase of the AIIMS hospital project. He is also expected to visit the Thiruparankundram Temple amid the Karthigai Deepam-related controversy and participate in a public meeting organised by the NDA.

Stalin said he has been working for all sections of the population, including those who did not vote for his party. In contrast, he remarked that some leaders are visible in the state only during election time and increase their visits as polls approach.

Criticism over Union Budget allocations

The DMK leader also criticised the BJP-led central government, accusing it of neglecting Tamil Nadu. He pointed out that while approval was recently granted for the Gujarat Metro project, there were no major announcements or allocations for Tamil Nadu in the Union Budget.

Stalin asserted that voters would remember the lack of significant measures for the state. He framed the upcoming election as a contest between Tamil Nadu and the NDA, stating that the state should be governed from Fort St George in Chennai rather than from Delhi.

The ruling DMK is currently allied with several smaller parties and, at present, the Congress, as it seeks a third consecutive term in office. Its principal rival, the AIADMK, is aligned with the BJP as part of the NDA.

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Shashi Tharoor questions Centre over Kerala name change to Keralam

Shashi Tharoor has criticised the Centre’s decision to approve renaming Kerala as Keralam, questioning its impact and pointing to the lack of major projects for the state.

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shashi tharoor

Congress MP Shashi Tharoor has criticised the central government over its decision to approve the renaming of Kerala as ‘Keralam’, arguing that the move prioritises symbolism over development.

Reacting to the Union Cabinet’s approval, Tharoor said that the state’s name has always been ‘Keralam’ in Malayalam and questioned the practical impact of introducing the Malayalam term into English usage.

“It has already been ‘Keralam’ in Malayalam. So now, a Malayalam word is coming into English. I don’t know what difference it makes,” he said, adding that the state has not received major projects such as an AIIMS or new institutions from the Centre. He also pointed out that no significant allocations were made for Kerala in the Union Budget.

In a separate post on X, Tharoor raised what he described as a “small linguistic question” about what residents of the state would be called if the name change is implemented. Referring to existing terms such as “Keralite” and “Keralan”, he remarked that alternatives like “Keralamite” sounded like a microbe and “Keralamian” like a rare earth mineral.

The Union Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cleared the proposal on Tuesday. The move comes ahead of the upcoming state Assembly elections, in which 140 members of the legislative assembly are to be elected. The poll schedule is yet to be announced by the Election Commission of India.

The state assembly had earlier passed a resolution seeking the change in official records. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had moved the resolution in 2024, urging the Union government to adopt the name ‘Keralam’ in all languages listed in the Eighth Schedule of the Constitution.

He had stated that the demand for a united Kerala for Malayalam-speaking people dates back to the national freedom movement.

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Tamil Nadu potboiler: Now, Sasikala to launch new party ahead of election

Sasikala has announced the launch of a new political party ahead of the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, positioning herself against AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami.

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In a significant political development ahead of the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, expelled AIADMK leader V. K. Sasikala has announced that she will float a new political party and contest the polls by fielding her own candidates.

Speaking in Madurai before heading to Pasumpon for a public event, Sasikala said she would unveil her party’s flag later in the evening. She indicated that more details regarding the party’s structure and plans would be shared at the gathering.

The event venue carries political symbolism. Pasumpon is the birthplace of Thevar leader Muthuramalinga Thevar, and Sasikala herself belongs to the influential Thevar community in southern Tamil Nadu. The programme was held as part of birth anniversary events of former Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa.

Direct challenge to EPS

Sasikala’s move is being viewed as a direct political challenge to AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS). After Jayalalithaa’s death in 2016, Sasikala briefly took control of the party and had appointed Palaniswami as Chief Minister. However, following her conviction in the disproportionate assets case, she served a four-year prison term, and during that period, she was expelled from the party.

Palaniswami later aligned with O. Panneerselvam, whom Sasikala had earlier removed from the Chief Minister’s post. The two leaders subsequently adopted a dual leadership arrangement within the party and government.

Sasikala remains disqualified from contesting elections until 2027 due to her conviction. Nevertheless, she has stated that she intends to field candidates under her new party banner.

Fragmented Thevar vote base

Over the years, expulsions within the AIADMK — including Sasikala, her nephew TTV Dhinakaran and O Panneerselvam — have led to divisions within the Thevar support base. Political observers have linked this fragmentation to the party’s weakened electoral performance in the elections following Jayalalithaa’s passing.

While Dhinakaran has returned to the NDA fold, reports suggest Palaniswami is opposed to any arrangement that includes Sasikala or Panneerselvam. OPS, meanwhile, has exited the NDA.

Sasikala has repeatedly criticised Palaniswami, describing him as a betrayer, while he maintains that his leadership stems from the support of AIADMK legislators rather than her backing.

The AIADMK has not issued an official statement on Sasikala’s announcement. However, a senior party leader questioned her political standing, pointing out her disqualification from contesting elections and referring to legal issues linked to Jayalalithaa’s death.

With the Assembly polls approaching, Sasikala’s re-entry into active politics could further complicate the opposition space in Tamil Nadu and influence electoral calculations, particularly in the southern districts.

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