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IOD may yet derail a good monsoon

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IOD may yet derail a good monsoon

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]IMD and private forecasters have predicted normal rainfall this year, but meteorologists are watching out to see how this little-known climatic phenomenon plays out

By Ratnadeep Choudhary

Both the Indian Meteorological Department and the private forecaster Skymet have confirmed that the disruptive El Niño won’t impact the Indian monsoon this year. “The distribution of rainfall is expected to be good… the country will receive 96 per cent of Long Period Average,” IMD chief KJ Ramesh said. However, it may be too early to celebrate. The Indian Ocean Dipole, a little-known weather phenomenon, may yet affect the farmer’s sole saviour. Predictions made by the IMD have often been far from accurate over the years.

Nicknamed the Christ Child, El Niño is an unusual warm current in the Pacific Ocean. It is a result of the oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. During El-Niño, the cold trade winds are replaced by warm winds. It disrupts climatic conditions in various parts of the world and is known to have an adverse impact on the Indian monsoon as well.

Indian Ocean Dipole is the phenomenon involving different temperatures along the western and eastern sides of the Indian Ocean at Arabian Sea and near Indonesia. A positive IOD generally has a favourable impact on the monsoon and it also reverses the impact of El Niño.

IMD has predicted that the impact of IOD seems neutral this monsoon. The department is closely monitoring sea surface conditions and would release its next forecast early June.

Scientifically, summer monsoon rainfall and its correlation with IOD are not conclusively proven. However, statistical data of IMD shows that in four of the 15 El Niño years, IOD was positive. In three of these (positive-IOD) years, rainfall was normal—96-104 percent of the predicted rainfall.

As the Indian economy is an agriculture-driven economy which depends on monsoon rainfall, a normal monsoon means that food prices remain under check. A total of 16 percent of the Indian GDP is dependent on monsoon and 50 percent of India’s 1.2 billion strong population is involved in agricultural production.

But a bad monsoon would affect other sectors as well. Industries such as fertilizer, food processing and agro-machinery have a considerable stake in a good monsoon. A positive monsoon would mean cut in interest rates by the RBI and the negative impact could lead to a rise in the overall inflation. Also, if the GST bill is passed by the parliament in the monsoon session, it would complement a good monsoon and would contribute to the growth of the GDP of the country.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

India and Russia vow to walk together against terrorism, reaffirm strategic partnership

PM Modi and President Putin reaffirm India-Russia unity against terrorism, deepen energy and trade cooperation, and discuss peace efforts amid the Ukraine conflict.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday underlined that India and Russia “walk together in the fight against terrorism,” reinforcing a decades-old strategic partnership that remains steady amid global geopolitical churn. The leaders issued the joint statement following talks at Hyderabad House in Delhi, where they also announced steps to boost trade, economic cooperation, and energy collaboration.

India-Russia stand firm on counter-terror cooperation

PM Modi described President Putin as a “dear friend” and highlighted Moscow’s consistent support to India on counter-terror efforts. Russia had earlier strongly condemned the terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, allegedly linked to Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed, and reiterated solidarity with India’s fight against terrorism in all forms.

The joint remarks emphasized that the bilateral friendship, rooted in trust and mutual respect, has remained resilient for decades despite global challenges.

Focus on energy, trade and use of national currencies

A key highlight of the engagement was Russia reaffirming “uninterrupted shipments” of fuel to India. PM Modi expressed gratitude for Russia’s commitment, noting energy cooperation as a crucial pillar of the relationship. While he did not specifically mention oil purchases, given ongoing Western pressure, he emphasised cooperation in civil nuclear and clean energy.

The two countries also discussed expanding economic ties, including a possible free trade agreement. President Putin said bilateral trade was being targeted to reach USD 100 billion, and acknowledged progress toward using national currencies for payments — a remark expected to draw global attention.

Putin shares peace plan insights on Ukraine conflict

Putin briefed the Prime Minister on Russia’s perspective for a peaceful resolution to the ongoing Ukraine war and appreciated India’s continued role as a “champion of peace.” PM Modi reiterated India’s consistent position on dialogue and diplomacy.

Agreements across jobs, health, shipping and minerals

Officials exchanged multiple agreements covering employment mobility, health, shipping, chemicals and cooperation in critical minerals — further broadening the strategic footprint of the partnership.

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India News

RBI cuts repo rate to 5.25%, paving the way for cheaper loans

The RBI has cut the repo rate to 5.25%, aiming to support growth as inflation softens. The central bank also raised GDP projections and announced liquidity-boosting measures.

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Reserve Bank of India

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the key repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% on Thursday, signalling relief for borrowers as banks are expected to offer lower EMIs on home and vehicle loans. Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced the move after the conclusion of the three-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

RBI prioritises growth as inflation eases

Malhotra said the decision was unanimous, with the central bank choosing to focus on supporting economic momentum despite concerns over a weak rupee. The repo rate was earlier cut in June from 6% to 5.5% amid easing inflation trends.

The RBI now projects Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 2% for FY2025-26, significantly softer than earlier estimates. For the first quarter of FY2026-27, inflation is expected at 3.9%, lower than the previous projection. The governor noted that rising precious metal prices may contribute to the headline CPI, but overall risks to inflation remain balanced.

GDP outlook strengthened

In a strong upward revision, the central bank increased the GDP forecast for the current financial year to 7.3%, previously estimated at 6.8%. Growth for the October–December quarter has also been revised to 6.7%.

The last quarter registered a six-quarter high expansion of 8.2%, reflecting resilient demand and steady credit flow.

“The growth-inflation balance continues to offer policy space,” Malhotra said, reiterating that the RBI’s stance remains neutral.

Other key decisions

Alongside the repo rate cut, the RBI announced adjustments to key policy corridors:

  • Standing Deposit Facility (SDF): 5%
  • Marginal Standing Facility (MSF): 5.5%

To improve liquidity and strengthen monetary transmission, the RBI will conduct forex swaps and purchase ₹1 lakh crore worth of government bonds through Open Market Operations (OMO).

RBI reviews a challenging year

Reflecting on 2025, Malhotra said the year delivered strong growth and moderate inflation even as global trade and geopolitical uncertainties persisted. He added that bank credit and retail lending remained healthy, providing support to the economy.

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IndiGo flight chaos deepens as over 500 services cancelled, passengers stranded for hours

Over 500 IndiGo flights were cancelled nationwide, leaving passengers stranded without food, clarity or their luggage as airports struggled to manage the disruption.

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IndiGo flight

India’s largest airline continued to face massive operational breakdowns, triggering frustration among travellers at major airports across the country. From piles of unattended suitcases to passengers waiting over 12 hours without food or clarity, the disruption stretched into its fourth consecutive day.

Long delays, no communication leave passengers anguished

Several travellers at Delhi airport described the situation as “mental torture”, as thousands of unclaimed suitcases lay scattered across the terminal. Many slept on the floor, while others expressed anger over the lack of communication from airline staff.

One flier said he had been waiting for over 12 hours without any explanation: “Every time they say one-hour or two-hour delays. We were going to a wedding but don’t even have our luggage.”

A passenger in Hyderabad recounted a similar ordeal, saying the flight was delayed indefinitely with no food, water, or updates from the airline. At the airport, some travellers blocked an Air India flight in protest over the lack of arrangements.

Goa and Chennai airports also witnessed tense moments. Videos from Goa showed fliers shouting at IndiGo staff as police attempted to calm the situation. At Chennai, CISF denied entry to IndiGo passengers due to heavy congestion.

Major metro airports impacted; cascading cancellations nationwide

Flight cancellations and delays were reported across multiple airports:

  • Over 200 flights were cancelled in Delhi
  • More than 100 each in Mumbai and Bengaluru
  • Around 90 in Hyderabad
  • Dozens more in Pune, Vishakhapatnam, Chennai and Bhopal

Pune airport stated that parking bay congestion worsened the situation, as several IndiGo aircraft remained grounded due to lack of crew. Other airlines continued operations without disruption.

Airport authorities said they had mobilised additional manpower for crowd control and passenger support.

IndiGo admits planning lapses, says more cancellations expected

The airline acknowledged a “misjudgment” in assessing crew requirements under revised night-duty norms, which it said created planning gaps. Winter weather and airport congestion further aggravated the crisis.

IndiGo informed the aviation ministry and DGCA that some regulatory changes—such as the shift in night-duty timings and a cap on night landings—have been rolled back temporarily to stabilise operations.

The airline warned that cancellations may continue for another two to three days, and from December 8, schedules will be trimmed to prevent further disruption.

In a message to employees, CEO Pieter Elbers said restoring punctuality would not be an “easy target”.

Airline issues apology amid nationwide frustration

In a late-night statement, IndiGo apologised to customers and industry partners, acknowledging the widespread inconvenience caused by the disruptions. The airline said all teams were working with authorities to bring operations back to normal.

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