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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The Southwest monsoon that accounts for about 75 per cent of rainfall in India and is the most anticipated weather phenomenon in the country is likely to miss its date with Kerala on June 1 and arrive a few days late.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast for 2019 released today (Wednesday, May 15), as reported by The Indian Express (IE) and The Hindu, says it would hit the Kerala coast six days late, on June 6. Private weather forecaster Skymet puts its arrival date as June 4.

In 2017, the onset over Kerala happened two days in advance (May 30) whereas in 2018, the onset was realised on May 29, which was three days preceding the normal onset date over Kerala.

In Andaman and Nicobar islands, the IMD said, monsoon will arrive towards the end of this week, later than normal. It usually arrives over the islands anytime between May 10 – May 15.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon to advance onto Andaman and Nicobar islands around May18 or May 19,” the forecast suggested.

Generally, the monsoon reaches Kerala within 10 days of reaching the Andamans. However, meteorologists had indicated that the monsoon — impeded by high temperatures in the seas surrounding India, and an El Nino — will advance sluggishly after reaching Kerala.

To forecast the monsoon arrival, the IMD uses a customised weather model which, it stated, had been wrong only once – in 2015 – since 2014.

This model crunches 6 meteorological parameters: the minimum temperatures over northwest India; the pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea; the lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean; the upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean; and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the southwest Pacific region.

The model has a built-in error margin of four days and prediction of aJune 6 onset can mean any day from June 2-10.

The monsoon’s arrival time, the IMD said, had no bearing to the quantum of rainfall in June-September period.

The IMD said it expected a “normal monsoon” but pointed to a “significant probability” of below normal rains.

But the Skymet forecast could e reason for worry. Skymet has maintained, in line with its earlier forecast, that the rains would be poor this year at 93 per cent of the normal.

According to its forecast, the drought-affected regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, along with parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, will face nearly 9 per cent deficiency in the June-September rains, reported The Business Standard (BS).

Rajasthan, northern Karnataka and Rayalseema could also see poor rain, Skymet said. While the model error for the amount of rain is 5 per cent, that for the date of arrival is two days.

“All four regions are going to witness lower than normal rain this season. East and northeast India and the central parts will get poorer rain than northwest India and the southern peninsula,” Jatin Singh, managing director at Skymet, was reported as saying.

The initial advance of the monsoon over peninsular India in June is going to be slow, the weather agency said. What does not augur well for the economy is that Skymet expects multiple agrarian regions to have a serious shortfall in rain.

On the other hand, observations by global weather agencies that show weaker El Nino conditions in the monsoon period could limit the scarcity to some extent. All long-range forecasts, however, are prone to error due to the complexity of the Indian monsoon system. Skymet’s forecast of a fully normal monsoon (100 per cent) last year was proven wrong when the actual rainfall turned out to be 91 per cent of the normal.

Independent weather observers concurred with Skymet on the onset date, the BS report said. They said temperatures in the mainland dropped a bit due to a series of western disturbances, which are causing thunderstorms in Delhi and other states. This is delaying the development of low-pressure areas in central India and desert regions, they added.

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India News

Telegram restricted ahead of NEET-UG re-exam, NTA backs move to curb exam fraud

NTA has welcomed the Centre’s decision to temporarily restrict Telegram ahead of the NEET-UG 2026 re-examination, citing the need to prevent fraud and misinformation.

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NEET

The Centre has imposed temporary restrictions on messaging platform Telegram ahead of the NEET-UG 2026 re-examination, with the National Testing Agency (NTA) welcoming the decision as part of efforts to prevent exam-related fraud and misinformation.

The temporary curbs will remain in place until June 22, a day after the NEET-UG re-exam scheduled for June 21. Authorities said the action was taken following concerns that the platform was being misused by cheating networks and individuals circulating misleading claims related to the examination.

NTA says move aimed at protecting exam integrity

According to the NTA, the restrictions are intended to safeguard candidates from fraudulent activities and false information that could affect the fairness of the examination process. The agency stated that maintaining the integrity of the re-examination remains a priority as lakhs of students prepare to appear for the test.

The NEET-UG re-exam is being conducted after the original examination was cancelled amid allegations of question paper leaks and irregularities. Since then, authorities have been monitoring online platforms for suspicious activity and misleading content targeting candidates.

Restrictions linked to concerns over fake paper leak claims

In recent weeks, several reports surfaced about Telegram channels allegedly offering access to leaked examination papers. The NTA had repeatedly advised students not to trust such claims and referred suspicious links and posts for verification by cybercrime authorities. No official confirmation of any genuine leaked re-exam paper had been issued.

Authorities believe the temporary restrictions will help limit the spread of fake content and reduce opportunities for organised exam fraud in the days leading up to the re-test.

Wider efforts to secure the re-examination

The government and examination authorities have introduced several measures ahead of the re-exam, including monitoring social media platforms and creating channels for reporting suspicious claims related to NEET-UG 2026. The NTA has also urged candidates to rely only on official communications for updates regarding the examination.

With the re-examination approaching, officials say the latest action is part of a broader effort to ensure a fair and transparent process for all candidates.

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Abhishek Banerjee says will not bow to BJP after nearly 11 hours of ED questioning

After spending nearly 11 hours before the Enforcement Directorate, TMC leader Abhishek Banerjee said he would not bow to the BJP and accused the ruling party of using investigative agencies for political purposes.

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Abhishek Banerjee

Trinamool Congress leader and Diamond Harbour MP Abhishek Banerjee on Tuesday said he would not bow to the BJP after spending nearly 11 hours being questioned by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in connection with an ongoing investigation.

Speaking after the questioning, Banerjee alleged that central agencies were being used to target opposition leaders and asserted that he would continue his political fight despite what he described as sustained pressure.

The TMC leader has repeatedly maintained that investigations involving him are politically motivated, a charge he has made on several previous occasions while appearing before central agencies.

His appearance before the ED comes amid a period of heightened political activity and multiple investigations involving leaders in West Bengal. Recent days have also seen Banerjee face summons and questioning in separate matters by state investigative agencies.

After leaving the ED office, Banerjee reiterated that he would not be intimidated and said he remained committed to his political responsibilities. He also accused the BJP of attempting to weaken opposition parties through investigative action, an allegation that the BJP has rejected in the past.

The Enforcement Directorate has not publicly commented on Banerjee’s remarks. The investigation related to the questioning remains ongoing.

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DMK attacks Rahul Gandhi, accuses him of weakening opposition unity

DMK has intensified its criticism of Rahul Gandhi, alleging that the Congress leader’s actions have weakened opposition unity and strained relations within the INDIA bloc.

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Rahul-Gandhi

The war of words between the DMK and Congress has intensified, with the DMK launching a strong attack on Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi and accusing him of contributing to divisions within the opposition alliance. The criticism comes amid strained ties between the two parties following their political split in Tamil Nadu.

According to the DMK, Rahul Gandhi’s political approach has weakened unity among opposition parties. The party’s IT wing mocked the Congress leader on social media, while an editorial published in the DMK’s official mouthpiece Murasoli questioned his recent remarks on opposition solidarity.

DMK questions Rahul Gandhi’s remarks on opposition unity

In its editorial, Murasoli argued that Rahul Gandhi was speaking about opposition unity despite, according to the DMK, contributing to disagreements among alliance partners in several states. The publication cited criticism directed at Congress by various opposition parties and suggested that the party’s actions had often created tensions within the INDIA bloc.

The editorial also referred to past political disputes involving Congress and Left parties, particularly in Kerala, claiming such episodes had raised concerns among opposition allies about Congress’s approach toward its partners.

Tamil Nadu political fallout adds to tensions

The attack comes after a major political realignment in Tamil Nadu. Following the 2026 Assembly elections, Congress ended its alliance with the DMK and joined the government led by Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). The move left the DMK in the opposition and significantly altered the political equation between the two former allies.

The DMK has alleged that Congress benefited from the alliance during the election and later abandoned its partner. The party’s editorial questioned whether assurances from Congress leadership would be trusted by alliance partners after the developments in Tamil Nadu.

Congress rejects allegations

Congress has not issued a detailed official response to the editorial, but party sources have rejected the allegations. According to the party, its decisions in Tamil Nadu were made in line with the mandate delivered by voters and were not intended to undermine either the DMK or the broader opposition alliance.

The latest exchange highlights growing strains between two key opposition parties even as leaders continue to stress cooperation on national issues. Just days earlier, Rahul Gandhi had said that the DMK remained aligned with the opposition on defending the “idea of India” despite political differences.

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