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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The Southwest monsoon that accounts for about 75 per cent of rainfall in India and is the most anticipated weather phenomenon in the country is likely to miss its date with Kerala on June 1 and arrive a few days late.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast for 2019 released today (Wednesday, May 15), as reported by The Indian Express (IE) and The Hindu, says it would hit the Kerala coast six days late, on June 6. Private weather forecaster Skymet puts its arrival date as June 4.

In 2017, the onset over Kerala happened two days in advance (May 30) whereas in 2018, the onset was realised on May 29, which was three days preceding the normal onset date over Kerala.

In Andaman and Nicobar islands, the IMD said, monsoon will arrive towards the end of this week, later than normal. It usually arrives over the islands anytime between May 10 – May 15.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon to advance onto Andaman and Nicobar islands around May18 or May 19,” the forecast suggested.

Generally, the monsoon reaches Kerala within 10 days of reaching the Andamans. However, meteorologists had indicated that the monsoon — impeded by high temperatures in the seas surrounding India, and an El Nino — will advance sluggishly after reaching Kerala.

To forecast the monsoon arrival, the IMD uses a customised weather model which, it stated, had been wrong only once – in 2015 – since 2014.

This model crunches 6 meteorological parameters: the minimum temperatures over northwest India; the pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea; the lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean; the upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean; and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the southwest Pacific region.

The model has a built-in error margin of four days and prediction of aJune 6 onset can mean any day from June 2-10.

The monsoon’s arrival time, the IMD said, had no bearing to the quantum of rainfall in June-September period.

The IMD said it expected a “normal monsoon” but pointed to a “significant probability” of below normal rains.

But the Skymet forecast could e reason for worry. Skymet has maintained, in line with its earlier forecast, that the rains would be poor this year at 93 per cent of the normal.

According to its forecast, the drought-affected regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, along with parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, will face nearly 9 per cent deficiency in the June-September rains, reported The Business Standard (BS).

Rajasthan, northern Karnataka and Rayalseema could also see poor rain, Skymet said. While the model error for the amount of rain is 5 per cent, that for the date of arrival is two days.

“All four regions are going to witness lower than normal rain this season. East and northeast India and the central parts will get poorer rain than northwest India and the southern peninsula,” Jatin Singh, managing director at Skymet, was reported as saying.

The initial advance of the monsoon over peninsular India in June is going to be slow, the weather agency said. What does not augur well for the economy is that Skymet expects multiple agrarian regions to have a serious shortfall in rain.

On the other hand, observations by global weather agencies that show weaker El Nino conditions in the monsoon period could limit the scarcity to some extent. All long-range forecasts, however, are prone to error due to the complexity of the Indian monsoon system. Skymet’s forecast of a fully normal monsoon (100 per cent) last year was proven wrong when the actual rainfall turned out to be 91 per cent of the normal.

Independent weather observers concurred with Skymet on the onset date, the BS report said. They said temperatures in the mainland dropped a bit due to a series of western disturbances, which are causing thunderstorms in Delhi and other states. This is delaying the development of low-pressure areas in central India and desert regions, they added.

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India News

Hardeep Singh Puri elected unopposed to Rajya Sabha from Madhya Pradesh

Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has been elected unopposed to the Rajya Sabha from Madhya Pradesh after the nominations of two other candidates, including a Congress-backed nominee, were rejected.

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Hardeep Puri

Union Petroleum Minister and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Hardeep Singh Puri has been elected unopposed to the Rajya Sabha from Madhya Pradesh. The announcement was made on Thursday after the deadline for withdrawal of nominations ended, leaving Puri as the only candidate in the contest.

Puri’s election followed the rejection of nomination papers filed by two other candidates, Kante Sayanna and Rajkumar Lohani, who was backed by the Opposition Congress. Their nominations were rejected during the scrutiny process, making Puri the sole candidate remaining in the fray.

Returning Officer Umesh Sharma formally declared Puri elected to the Upper House of Parliament. Madhya Pradesh BJP president Hemant Khandelwal collected his certificate of election from the returning officer in the presence of party MLA Rameshwar Sharma.

Why Hardeep Singh Puri was elected unopposed

The Madhya Pradesh Rajya Sabha bypoll witnessed three candidates initially entering the contest. However, the nomination papers of the two other candidates did not clear scrutiny.

Kante Sayanna and Congress-backed candidate Rajkumar Lohani had their nominations rejected during the examination of election papers. With both candidates out of the contest, Puri remained the only candidate.

As a result, the returning officer declared him elected unopposed on the final day of withdrawal of nominations on November 5.

The bypoll, if required, had been scheduled to take place on November 12.

Why the Madhya Pradesh Rajya Sabha seat fell vacant

The by-election became necessary following the resignation of former Union minister L Murugan from the Rajya Sabha last month.

Murugan’s departure created a vacancy in the Upper House from Madhya Pradesh. His original term was scheduled to continue until April 2, 2030.

The BJP subsequently nominated Hardeep Singh Puri as its candidate for the by-election.

Puri, a former diplomat who later entered politics, currently serves as the Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas.

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Amit Shah challenges Rahul Gandhi to debate SIR in Parliament

Amit Shah responded to Rahul Gandhi’s public debate challenge by inviting him to discuss the SIR exercise in Parliament. He also criticised the Congress over its demand for Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar’s resignation.

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Union Home Minister Amit Shah has challenged Congress leader Rahul Gandhi to take up his demand for a public debate with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Parliament, saying the government is ready to convene a special session to discuss the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise.

Addressing a rally in Haryana’s Karnal, Shah directly responded to Gandhi’s challenge to the Prime Minister, asking the Congress leader to write to PM Modi if he wanted a discussion.

“I want to challenge Rahul Gandhi directly. You challenge PM Modi for a discussion? If you want a discussion, simply write a letter to PM Modi. We are ready to convene a special session of Parliament to discuss the SIR exercise… Come and debate in Parliament,” Shah said.

The remarks came two days after Rahul Gandhi issued another public debate challenge to the Prime Minister.

On November 3, Gandhi wrote in a post on X that PM Modi could choose any stage or venue for a discussion. He proposed debating allegations concerning who was anti-national and who had connections with foreign forces, adding that the media and the country’s youth should also be present.

Amit Shah targets Congress over SIR controversy

During his address, Shah also criticised the Congress over its demand for the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

Referring to the 2014, 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Home Minister argued that the Congress had lost despite no Special Intensive Revision exercise being conducted during those elections.

“Where was the SIR in 2014? You were completely wiped out even then. Where was SIR in 2019? You lost. There was no SIR in 2024 either, yet you lost again,” he said.

Shah also referred to the elections in Haryana and Maharashtra, claiming that there was no SIR exercise in either state when the Congress suffered electoral defeats.

He accused the Opposition of disrupting parliamentary proceedings and organising protests on the streets instead of allowing Parliament to function.

Shah criticises Rahul Gandhi over protests

The Home Minister further alleged that Rahul Gandhi and the Congress were creating disorder through street protests and parliamentary boycotts.

Shah said BJP workers would give a “fitting reply” if Gandhi continued to mobilise crowds on the streets.

He also questioned Gandhi’s claim to have mobilised large numbers of people for a rally in Delhi, alleging that the venue had a capacity of 70,000 and was still half empty despite an appeal to bring 10 lakh people.

“The people of the country have consistently defeated Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party. The people of the country are not with you or the Opposition alliance,” Shah said.

Amit Shah raises questions over Rahul Gandhi’s foreign visits

Shah also sought details about Rahul Gandhi’s foreign visits, arguing that people had a right to know about them.

“You’re Leader of Opposition… People have the right to know,” the Home Minister said.

His remarks came amid the continuing political confrontation between the BJP and Congress over the SIR exercise, electoral processes and the Opposition’s criticism of the Election Commission.

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Women’s cash schemes in Chhattisgarh ease inflation, not entrepreneurship

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By Neeraj Mishra

As Chhattisgarh celebrated its 26th Foundation Day with Home Minister Amit Shah as chief guest, there are worries about the cash programmes for women.

With the payment of the 33rd consecutive monthly installment of Mahtari Vandan Yojana to more than 67 lakh beneficiaries, Chhattisgarh has created a record of sorts. The 67 lakh women are supposed to have received a monthly cash dole of Rs 1000 per head in their accounts totaling to a mammoth Rs 21,350 crore. It translates into a very neat Rs 33000 per head for each married woman over the age of 21 so far.

And all these women are KYC- checked and receive the direct benefit transfer. If there are an average of  three married women in a joint family, then the amount totals to better than the average rise in paddy prices. That’s not all, there are six other women’s schemes which provide easy loans and rent free shops in good locations. These schemes pump in a further Rs 11,000 crore into each household every year. Further, the renamed MNREGA has another Rs 16,200 crore reserved for the state every year.

So far so good and it reads like a state government PR pamphlet. Now for the bad news. The cash dole has so far been absorbed by the family itself because of the inordinate rise in fuel prices. By all accounts only 23 per cent of the households who receive gas cylinders are able to continue buying it. Only 15 per cent of those who received loans for various trades including e-rickshaws have been able to sustain it. This is roughly about 41,000 women so far.

The state had also invested in physical infrastructure like sheds and shops for trades like mushroom farming, goat farming and small size hatcheries. Some shops were given rent free on prime locations in Raipur, Durg and Bilaspur etc. Most of these facilities have been abandoned as the self-help groups (SHGs) formed for the purpose haven’t been able to convert it into a profitable venture. In fact, each SHG, which usually has 11 women, is given a monthly encouragement amount of Rs 15,000 which is now being split amongst the group with nothing to show for it.  Most sheds have either broken down or have become illegally occupied. Better still, the shops have been handed over to businessmen to recover some of the cost.

“The main reason these schemes have not had the desired effect is lack of training and a general apathy on part of the entrepreneurs because of easy cash,” said an official. And that best sums it up.

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