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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The Southwest monsoon that accounts for about 75 per cent of rainfall in India and is the most anticipated weather phenomenon in the country is likely to miss its date with Kerala on June 1 and arrive a few days late.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast for 2019 released today (Wednesday, May 15), as reported by The Indian Express (IE) and The Hindu, says it would hit the Kerala coast six days late, on June 6. Private weather forecaster Skymet puts its arrival date as June 4.

In 2017, the onset over Kerala happened two days in advance (May 30) whereas in 2018, the onset was realised on May 29, which was three days preceding the normal onset date over Kerala.

In Andaman and Nicobar islands, the IMD said, monsoon will arrive towards the end of this week, later than normal. It usually arrives over the islands anytime between May 10 – May 15.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon to advance onto Andaman and Nicobar islands around May18 or May 19,” the forecast suggested.

Generally, the monsoon reaches Kerala within 10 days of reaching the Andamans. However, meteorologists had indicated that the monsoon — impeded by high temperatures in the seas surrounding India, and an El Nino — will advance sluggishly after reaching Kerala.

To forecast the monsoon arrival, the IMD uses a customised weather model which, it stated, had been wrong only once – in 2015 – since 2014.

This model crunches 6 meteorological parameters: the minimum temperatures over northwest India; the pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea; the lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean; the upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean; and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the southwest Pacific region.

The model has a built-in error margin of four days and prediction of aJune 6 onset can mean any day from June 2-10.

The monsoon’s arrival time, the IMD said, had no bearing to the quantum of rainfall in June-September period.

The IMD said it expected a “normal monsoon” but pointed to a “significant probability” of below normal rains.

But the Skymet forecast could e reason for worry. Skymet has maintained, in line with its earlier forecast, that the rains would be poor this year at 93 per cent of the normal.

According to its forecast, the drought-affected regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, along with parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, will face nearly 9 per cent deficiency in the June-September rains, reported The Business Standard (BS).

Rajasthan, northern Karnataka and Rayalseema could also see poor rain, Skymet said. While the model error for the amount of rain is 5 per cent, that for the date of arrival is two days.

“All four regions are going to witness lower than normal rain this season. East and northeast India and the central parts will get poorer rain than northwest India and the southern peninsula,” Jatin Singh, managing director at Skymet, was reported as saying.

The initial advance of the monsoon over peninsular India in June is going to be slow, the weather agency said. What does not augur well for the economy is that Skymet expects multiple agrarian regions to have a serious shortfall in rain.

On the other hand, observations by global weather agencies that show weaker El Nino conditions in the monsoon period could limit the scarcity to some extent. All long-range forecasts, however, are prone to error due to the complexity of the Indian monsoon system. Skymet’s forecast of a fully normal monsoon (100 per cent) last year was proven wrong when the actual rainfall turned out to be 91 per cent of the normal.

Independent weather observers concurred with Skymet on the onset date, the BS report said. They said temperatures in the mainland dropped a bit due to a series of western disturbances, which are causing thunderstorms in Delhi and other states. This is delaying the development of low-pressure areas in central India and desert regions, they added.

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India News

Amit Shah praises Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation, says Nation above post

Amit Shah hailed Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation as Union Education Minister, saying BJP places the nation and students above any position while highlighting the government’s commitment to examination reforms.

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Amit Shah

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Saturday praised Dharmendra Pradhan’s decision to step down as Union Education Minister, saying the move reflected the Bharatiya Janata Party’s commitment to placing the nation and students above any political position.

In a post on X, Shah said that for BJP workers, the country, its youth and students are more important than any office. He described Pradhan’s resignation as an example of the party’s guiding principle of prioritising national interest over personal ambition.

Shah highlights government’s focus on exam reforms

Amit Shah said the Narendra Modi-led government respects the sentiments of students and remains committed to strengthening the examination system following concerns over alleged paper leaks.

He said the Centre has introduced strict measures to ensure severe punishment for those involved in examination paper leaks and expressed confidence that these steps would deliver justice to students who cleared the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET).

Praises Pradhan’s work as Education Minister

Recalling Dharmendra Pradhan’s tenure, Shah highlighted several initiatives undertaken during his time in the Education Ministry. He credited Pradhan with helping implement the National Education Policy (NEP), expanding PM SHRI schools, promoting digital education, strengthening skill development and improving coordination between industry and academic institutions.

Shah also said Pradhan worked towards making examinations more inclusive and student-centric, adding that his tenure reflected his commitment to the vision of a developed India.

Resignation follows NEET controversy

Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation comes amid nationwide protests over alleged irregularities in the NEET examination and growing demands for accountability.

The resignation has triggered political reactions across party lines. While opposition parties have described the development as a result of sustained student protests, BJP leaders have projected it as an example of accountability and commitment to national interest.

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Assam flood death toll rises to 66, over 6.5 lakh people still affected

Assam’s flood situation improved slightly on Saturday, but more than 6.54 lakh people remain affected in six districts. Four fresh deaths have pushed the state’s flood toll to 66.

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Assam floods

The flood situation in Assam showed marginal improvement on Saturday, though the disaster continued to impact more than 6.54 lakh people across six districts. Four more deaths were reported during the day, taking the total number of fatalities in this year’s floods to 66.

According to the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA), three of the latest deaths were reported from Sivasagar district, while one person lost their life in Charaideo.

The number of affected people declined from over 7.05 lakh across nine districts on Friday to 6,54,800 across six districts on Saturday, indicating a gradual improvement in the overall situation.

Sivasagar remains the worst-hit district

Among the affected districts, Sivasagar continues to be the worst hit, with nearly 2.9 lakh people impacted by the floods. Charaideo follows with around 1.9 lakh affected residents, while more than 1.3 lakh people remain affected in Jorhat.

The other districts still facing flood-related challenges are Dibrugarh, Golaghat and Nagaon.

Relief operations continue across affected areas

The ASDMA said the state administration is operating 274 relief camps and aid distribution centres across the affected districts. Around 18,902 displaced people are currently taking shelter at these facilities.

The latest daily bulletin also stated that floodwaters have inundated 810 villages across the state, while 34,970.8 hectares of agricultural land have suffered damage.

Rivers flowing above danger level

The floods have also damaged embankments, roads, bridges and other public infrastructure in several areas.

Authorities said the Dikhou River in Sivasagar and the Dhansiri River at Numaligarh are flowing above the danger level, and officials continue to closely monitor the situation.

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UP Government forms new SIT led by 3 IPS officers to probe Ayodhya Ram Temple donation theft

The Uttar Pradesh government has formed a new SIT led by three IPS officers to investigate the alleged Ram Temple donation theft case in Ayodhya following Supreme Court directions.

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Ram Mandir

The Uttar Pradesh government has reconstituted a Special Investigation Team (SIT) headed by IG Kiran S, with DIG Somen Verma and SSP Dr Gaurav Grover as members, to investigate the alleged theft of donations meant for the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. 

The move comes after directions from the Supreme Court, which sought a reconstituted investigation team to ensure an independent and comprehensive probe into the allegations.

The newly formed SIT is expected to continue the investigation and submit a status report before the Supreme Court on July 27.

Senior IPS officers to lead the probe

According to the state government, the investigation will now be supervised by senior IPS officers.  The revamped SIT has been tasked with examining all aspects of the alleged embezzlement of temple donations and carrying the investigation forward.

The Supreme Court had observed that criminal investigations and technical examination of theft-related cases are more effectively handled by experienced police officers, leading to the reconstitution of the SIT under senior IPS leadership.

Probe to continue under court supervision

The case relates to the alleged embezzlement of offerings (chadhava) donated by devotees at the Shri Ram Janmabhoomi Temple in Ayodhya.

The Supreme Court is monitoring the investigation and will review the SIT’s status report at the next hearing.

Authorities are expected to continue examining evidence collected during the earlier stages of the investigation as the newly constituted SIT proceeds with the case.

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