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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The Southwest monsoon that accounts for about 75 per cent of rainfall in India and is the most anticipated weather phenomenon in the country is likely to miss its date with Kerala on June 1 and arrive a few days late.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast for 2019 released today (Wednesday, May 15), as reported by The Indian Express (IE) and The Hindu, says it would hit the Kerala coast six days late, on June 6. Private weather forecaster Skymet puts its arrival date as June 4.

In 2017, the onset over Kerala happened two days in advance (May 30) whereas in 2018, the onset was realised on May 29, which was three days preceding the normal onset date over Kerala.

In Andaman and Nicobar islands, the IMD said, monsoon will arrive towards the end of this week, later than normal. It usually arrives over the islands anytime between May 10 – May 15.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon to advance onto Andaman and Nicobar islands around May18 or May 19,” the forecast suggested.

Generally, the monsoon reaches Kerala within 10 days of reaching the Andamans. However, meteorologists had indicated that the monsoon — impeded by high temperatures in the seas surrounding India, and an El Nino — will advance sluggishly after reaching Kerala.

To forecast the monsoon arrival, the IMD uses a customised weather model which, it stated, had been wrong only once – in 2015 – since 2014.

This model crunches 6 meteorological parameters: the minimum temperatures over northwest India; the pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea; the lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean; the upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean; and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the southwest Pacific region.

The model has a built-in error margin of four days and prediction of aJune 6 onset can mean any day from June 2-10.

The monsoon’s arrival time, the IMD said, had no bearing to the quantum of rainfall in June-September period.

The IMD said it expected a “normal monsoon” but pointed to a “significant probability” of below normal rains.

But the Skymet forecast could e reason for worry. Skymet has maintained, in line with its earlier forecast, that the rains would be poor this year at 93 per cent of the normal.

According to its forecast, the drought-affected regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, along with parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, will face nearly 9 per cent deficiency in the June-September rains, reported The Business Standard (BS).

Rajasthan, northern Karnataka and Rayalseema could also see poor rain, Skymet said. While the model error for the amount of rain is 5 per cent, that for the date of arrival is two days.

“All four regions are going to witness lower than normal rain this season. East and northeast India and the central parts will get poorer rain than northwest India and the southern peninsula,” Jatin Singh, managing director at Skymet, was reported as saying.

The initial advance of the monsoon over peninsular India in June is going to be slow, the weather agency said. What does not augur well for the economy is that Skymet expects multiple agrarian regions to have a serious shortfall in rain.

On the other hand, observations by global weather agencies that show weaker El Nino conditions in the monsoon period could limit the scarcity to some extent. All long-range forecasts, however, are prone to error due to the complexity of the Indian monsoon system. Skymet’s forecast of a fully normal monsoon (100 per cent) last year was proven wrong when the actual rainfall turned out to be 91 per cent of the normal.

Independent weather observers concurred with Skymet on the onset date, the BS report said. They said temperatures in the mainland dropped a bit due to a series of western disturbances, which are causing thunderstorms in Delhi and other states. This is delaying the development of low-pressure areas in central India and desert regions, they added.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Arvind Kejriwal predicts INDIA bloc will win 300 seats and form next government

Kejriwal was addressing a digital press conference from his residence where he said as different phases of elections are over, it has become clear that on June 4, the INDIA bloc will win and form the next government at the centre.

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Arvind Kejriwal predicts INDIA bloc will win 300 seats and form next government

Delhi chief minister and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supremo Arvind Kejriwal on Tuesday cited surveys and said the INDIA bloc will win over 300 of 543 Lok Sabha seats and form the next government.  He said the 5th phase of the Lok Sabha elections is over.

Kejriwal was addressing a digital press conference from his residence where he said as different phases of elections are over, it has become clear that on June 4, the INDIA bloc will win and form the next government at the centre. The findings of many surveys show that on June 4, the INDIA bloc is going to get over 300 seats. He added that the INDIA bloc is progressing and is on the way to give a clean and stable government.

The Delhi chief minister addressed the press conference days before Delhi’s all seven Lok Sabha seats are due to go for elections in the 6th phase of voting on May 25. The Aam Aadmi Party, a key constituent of the INDIA bloc, is contesting 4 of the 7 Lok Sabha seats in alliance with Congress. The BJP swept the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi in 2014 and 2019, winning all 7 seats.

Top leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Yogi Adityanath , Amit Shah (BJP), Kejriwal, and Rahul Gandhi (Congress) have campaigned in New Delhi which is going to end on May 23. Earlier The Delhi Chief Minister had slammed Amit Shah a day after he addressed an election rally in Delhi on Monday. 

He slammed the union Home minister and said not even 500 people attended Amit Shah’s rally. He accused Shah of abusing the people of the country and Delhi. Kejriwal accused Shah of calling AAP supporters as Pakistanis. He said the people of Delhi gave AAP 62 out of 70 [assembly] seats and asked if they were Pakistanis?  

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India News

Pune police arrest father after son’s fatal Porsche crash, restaurant owner also detained

Pune Police Commissioner Amitesh Kumar mentioned that the father was detained from Maharashtra’s Sambhajinagar in the morning and was formally arrested after being brought to Pune.

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Pune police arrest father after son’s fatal Porsche crash, restaurant owner also detained

The Pune police have arrested the father of the juvenile involved in the fatal accident that occurred on Monday morning. The minor was driving a Porsche without a registration number, which crashed into a bike, resulting in two deaths. The authorities have also arrested the owners of two restaurants and a staff member for serving alcohol to minors.

Pune Police Commissioner Amitesh Kumar confirmed that the father of the accused has been arrested after he attempted to evade capture. He mentioned that the father was detained from Maharashtra’s Sambhajinagar in the morning and was formally arrested after being brought to Pune.

Among those arrested were Pralhad Bhutada, owner of Cosie, and Sandip Sangale, owner of Blak Club. The Pune Police Commissioner added that the license holders of two restaurants and one more person were arrested late last night and would be produced in court today.

The minor’s father, a prominent real estate developer in Pune, reportedly manages a famous club and has built a star hotel in addition to several significant projects. The Pune Police have booked the aforesaid people under the Motor Vehicles Act (MVA) and the Juvenile Justice Act (JJA) for failing in their duties as guardians and for allowing the minor to drive without a license.

The Yerawada police arrested the father for permitting the minor to drive, while the restaurant owners and staff were charged for serving liquor to the minor. The Police have invoked sections 3, 5, and 199A of the Motor Vehicle Act, 1988, and sections 75 and 77 of the Juvenile Justice (Care and Protection of Children) Act, 2015. The action was taken after police found that the Porsche, purchased in March, had not been registered. 

Meanwhile, Leader of Opposition in Maharashtra assembly Vijay Wadettiwar demanded a judicial inquiry into the accident. He said that there is a question mark on Pune Police’s investigation, therefore a judicial inquiry should be conducted in this case.

He further pointed out that the police have reported that the alcohol test of the accused in the Pune accident was negative, but the CCTV footage of the accused, who is a minor, is drunk and that the report is raising a question mark on the police investigation.

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Uttarkashi authorities issues order to limit movement of horses and mules on Yamunotri Dham pilgrimage route

The District Magistrate Dr. Meherban Singh Bisht issued an order that the maximum number of horses and mules going from Janki Chatti to Yamunotri and vice versa has been limited to 800.

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Uttarkashi authorities limits movement of horses and mules on Yamunotri Dham pilgrimage route

In an effort to ensure the safety and convenience of piligrims, the district authorities of Uttarkashi have issued an order to curb the movement of horses and mules on the Shri Yamunotri Dham foot pilgrimage route.

The District Magistrate Dr. Meherban Singh Bisht issued an order that the maximum number of horses and mules going from Janki Chatti to Yamunotri and vice versa has been limited to 800. Additionally, the time for their movement is restricted to between 4 a.m. and 5 p.m. The District Magistrate has instructed the relevant departments and officials to promptly execute the above-mentioned orders and see to it that they are followed by all. He has also instructed the relevant department and officials to promptly execute the mentioned order.

On May 19, a significant number of devotees visited the holy sites of Gangotri and Yamunotri Dhams in Uttarakhand. By 2 p.m. on Sunday, approximately 10,000 devotees worshipped at Gangotri Dham, while 28,000 pilgrims were en route to Gangotri. Similarly, at Yamunotri Dham, 8,500 people had worshipped, and 20,000 individuals were progressing along the Yamunotri route from various stops.

The order also imposes a complete ban on the movement of horses, mules, and sticks beyond the Ghoda Padav in Shri Yamunotri Dham. Violators will be punishable under Section 188 of the Indian Penal Code (IPC), as per the DM’s order. This decision was prompted by a joint report submitted by the Barkot’s Sub-District Magistrate, Deputy Superintendent of Police, and Uttarkashi Additional Chief Officer of the District Panchayat. The report emphasized the need for crowd control to safeguard pilgrims, lives, and property.

The Char Dham Yatra, which includes sites like Yamunotri, Gangotri, Kedarnath, and Bedrinath, began on May 10 this year. Uttarakhand witnesses a peak in pilgrimage season during the summers, drawing thousands of devotees to these sacred destinations.

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