English हिन्दी
Connect with us

India News

PM Modi slips on unemployment and price rise, will not get majority if polls held now: Survey

Published

7 years ago

on

Narendra Modi

An opinion poll by India Today-Karvy Insights says that the BJP, unlike 2014 Lok Sabha elections, would not muster a majority on its own if polls are held now.

Unemployment, price rise, and corruption remain the three biggest issues of concern for Indians, found the survey and all three seem to have become bigger concerns in the last six months.

The Mood Of The Nation (MOTN) survey, released on Saturday, 18 August, says the BJP-led NDA would be back in power, but barely so, if elections were held today.

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance may not be able to fulfil its goal of displace the Modi-Shah led BJP, though it makes significant gains.

While the BJP will not fall short of getting a majority, it will remain the single-largest party with 245 seats (it won 282 in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls), 27 less than the 272 required for simple majority, making it dependent on allies.

According to the biannual poll, the NDA would be just nine ahead of the Lok Sabha halfway mark with 281 seats.

The Congress, on the other hand, would nearly double its 2014 tally by winning 83 seats.

The UPA would win 122 seats while ‘Others’ would pick up the remaining 140.

In terms of the vote share, the NDA would win 36 per cent of votes polled while the UPA would win 31 per cent. ‘Others’ will manage to get more vote share than UPA at 33 per cent.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP crossed the 272-mark comfortably on its own, winning 282 seats, a gain of 166 from the previous election. The NDA had a total of 336 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament. For the Congress, it was one of their worst defeat and managed to win a paltry 44 seats with just 19 per cent vote share.

The NDA’s combined vote share in 2014 was 38.5 per cent and the UPA’s was just under 23 per cent. That leaves out nearly 39 per cent — or a chunk roughly equal to the NDA’s — for all others.

The survey, conducted seven months ahead of the scheduled general assembly elections, takes into account three possible scenarios, analysed The Quint.

Scenario 1: UPA and NDA as in 2014

In scenario 1, the allies under both the coalitions remain the same as they were in 2014, without any new equations coming into play.

Here, the UPA, sans its major allies of BSP, SP and TMC, is predicted to get 122 seats, as against the NDA’s mammoth 281 seats. Others get 140 seats.

As far as vote share is concerned, the UPA is pegged at 31 percent, while the NDA is at 36 percent and the others at 33 percent.

Scenario 2: UPA Allies with BSP, SP and TMC

A scenario in which the opposition gets its act together and forms a ‘mahagathbandhan’ consisting mainly of the Congress, the Trinamool Congress, the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Janata Dal (Secular).

Such a coalition could win as many as 224 seats , just four behind the NDA whose tally will be down to 228 seats. Others get 91 seats.

The BJPs own tally would drop to 194 seats and though it will still be the single-largest party, it will be heavily dependent on its allies and breakaway parties to form a government.

Modi’s credibility as BJP’s prime vote-catcher would get severely dented in such a case and cast doubts over his acceptability as prime minister by the NDA allies. Modi himself may not be inclined to rule a gaggle of parties as he may balk at running a coalition where his writ would not run unchallenged as it does now.

As far as vote share is concerned, the UPA is at 41 percent, far ahead of the NDA which is at 36 percent, while others are expected to get 23 percent.

The survey pegs the reason behind the UPA alliance getting lesser seats despite a far higher vote share to the fact that the BJP vote base is concentrated at specific regions like the north, west and the north-west.

Scenario 3: NDA and its Southern Allies

In this scenario, the NDA placates its new alliance partners in the south – AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh.

With those allies in tow, the NDA+ is likely to garner 255 seats, while the UPA is expected to get 242 seats.

However, if TRS and BJD join the NDA in a post-poll alliance, the number could spike up to 282 seats.

In all scenarios, the NDA alliance is ahead of the UPA as far as seat share is concerned.

The survey further predicts that to up its chances in the final contest, the Congress will have to win in two of three upcoming state elections – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

The survey found Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to get the highest rating as prime ministerial candidate, with 49 percent polling – but he has slipped four points from January 2018, when he was favoured by 53 percent of those surveyed and has dropped a significant 16 percent from January 2017’s 65 percent.

The survey shows that Rahul Gandhi‘s popularity is on the rise, with his rating moving up steadily from a low of 10 per cent in the January 2017 MOTN to 22 percent in January 2018 and 27 per cent this time. The gap between Modi and him is still a large 22 percentage points, but it indicates that Rahul, as Congress president, is emerging as a challenger.

PM Modi slips on unemployment and price rise, will not get majority if polls held now: Survey

  • From India Today

None of the BJP leaders feature in the top three list of best chief ministers in the MOTN survey. While TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee topped the poll, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal were ranked third and fourth.

Manohar Parrikar, Vijay Rupani, ML Khattar, Devendra Fadnavis and Amarinder Singh are among the chief ministers who have gotten a lowly two per cent popularity mark in the poll.

An overwhelming 49 per cent of the respondents believe that the Opposition unity would translate into an electoral alliance against BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Moreover, the India Today poll shows Rahul Gandhi is the best person to lead such an alliance. He was backed by 46% of respondents.

However, in the case of a non-BJP, non-Congress front, Mamata Banerjee has the upper hand to lead the alliance, according to the survey.

Among the ministers in the Narendra Modi cabinet, Arun Jaitley has emerged as the best performer, according to the survey. Rajnath Singh and Sushma Swaraj follow close behind while Nitin Gadkari and Nirmala Sitharaman rank fourth and fifth, respectively.

Asked about Modi’s performance, 55 per cent of respondents voted favourably. However, this is a drop of six percentage points compared to MOTN January 2018. A similar percentage of respondents (56 per cent) are satisfied by the NDA government’s performance – a sharp drop from its peak of 71 per cent in the January 2017 MOTN.

Unemployment, price rise, and corruption remain the three biggest issues of concern for Indians. In fact, all three are issues that seem to have become bigger concerns since the January MOTN poll. Unemployment tops the list and 34 per cent of the respondents feel it is a burning issue, five percent more than in January 2018.

One of the biggest policy decisions of the Narendra Modi government, the pain of the shock November 2016 demonetisation exercise hasn’t gone away for India, according to MOTN July 2018. Nearly three-fourths of the respondents said that demonetisation caused more pain than gain; the number (73 per cent) is the same as what it was in MOTN January 2018 but is a steep rise from last year’s MOTN (61 per cent).

The India Today Group-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll was conducted by Karvy Insights Limited. A total of 12,100 interviews were conducted (68% in rural & 32% in urban areas) across 97 parliamentary constituencies in 194 assembly constituencies in 19 statesAndhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

India News

GRAP stage-III measures enforced across Delhi as air quality worsens

Delhi’s air quality has deteriorated further, prompting authorities to enforce GRAP stage-III measures across the NCR amid rising AQI levels.

Published

7 hours ago

on

January 16, 2026

By

Delhi-Pollution

Delhi’s air quality has continued to deteriorate, prompting authorities to enforce Stage-III measures under the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) across the National Capital Region with immediate effect.

The Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) said the Air Quality Index (AQI) of the national capital showed a worsening trend over the past 24 hours. The AQI stood at 343 on January 15 at 4 pm and rose further to 354 by 4 pm on Thursday, raising concerns that pollution levels could soon enter the ‘Severe’ category.

Weather agencies have forecast unfavourable atmospheric conditions in the coming days, including low wind speeds, a stable atmosphere and poor dispersion of pollutants. Officials said these conditions could push Delhi’s average AQI beyond 400, which falls under the ‘Severe’ air quality bracket.

Stage-III restrictions come into force across NCR

In view of the rising pollution levels and the forecast of further deterioration, the CAQM sub-committee on GRAP decided to invoke all measures under Stage-III. These measures correspond to ‘Severe’ air quality levels and have been implemented as a precautionary step to prevent further decline.

The Stage-III actions will be enforced in addition to the restrictions already in place under Stages I and II of GRAP, which remain operational across the NCR. Officials said the combined measures aim to tighten controls on pollution sources, enhance monitoring and ensure stricter enforcement to curb emissions.

CAQM has directed pollution control boards and concerned agencies in the NCR to intensify preventive and regulatory steps. Authorities have been asked to ensure strict compliance with GRAP norms and take prompt action against violations.

Officials said air quality levels will be closely monitored, and further decisions will be taken based on real-time data and evolving weather conditions. Citizens have been urged to cooperate with advisories and follow measures aimed at reducing pollution levels.

Continue Reading

India News

PM Modi to visit Bengal and Assam, launch Vande Bharat sleeper train and key projects

PM Modi will visit West Bengal and Assam on January 17 and 18 to launch India’s first Vande Bharat sleeper train and inaugurate major infrastructure projects.

Published

7 hours ago

on

January 16, 2026

By

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit West Bengal and Assam on January 17 and 18, where he will flag off India’s first Vande Bharat sleeper train and inaugurate, dedicate and lay the foundation stone for a series of infrastructure and development projects across the two poll-bound states.

Vande Bharat sleeper train to be flagged off from Malda

On Saturday, the prime minister will visit Malda in West Bengal around 12.45 pm and flag off the country’s first Vande Bharat sleeper train connecting Howrah with Guwahati (Kamakhya) from the Malda town railway station.

Later in the day, around 1.45 pm, he will address a public programme in Malda where he will dedicate to the nation and lay the foundation stone of multiple rail and road projects worth more than Rs 3,250 crore.

Development projects in Hooghly district

On January 18, around 3 pm, the prime minister will visit Singur in Hooghly district, where he will inaugurate, lay the foundation stone and flag off various development projects worth around Rs 830 crore.

During the visit, Modi will also virtually flag off four new Amrit Bharat Express trains connecting New Jalpaiguri with Nagercoil and Tiruchirappalli, and Alipurduar with Bengaluru and Mumbai (Panvel). These services are aimed at improving affordable long-distance rail connectivity and strengthening inter-state economic and social linkages.

New train services and highway projects in north Bengal

The prime minister will flag off two new train services with LHB coaches — Radhikapur–SMVT Bengaluru Express and Balurghat–SMVT Bengaluru Express — providing direct connectivity from north Bengal to major IT and employment hubs.

He will also lay the foundation stone for the rehabilitation and four-laning of the Dhupguri–Falakata section of National Highway-31D, a project expected to significantly improve road connectivity and the movement of goods and passengers in the region.

Additionally, Modi will lay the foundation stone of four major railway projects in West Bengal, including a new rail line between Balurghat and Hili, next-generation freight maintenance facilities at New Jalpaiguri, upgradation of the Siliguri loco shed and modernisation of Vande Bharat train maintenance facilities in Jalpaiguri district.

He will also dedicate the electrification of the New Coochbehar–Bamanhat and New Coochbehar–Boxirhat rail sections, enabling cleaner and more energy-efficient train operations.

Cultural programme and Kaziranga corridor in Assam

On January 17, around 6 pm, the prime minister will attend the Bodo cultural programme “Bagurumba Dwhou 2026” at Sarusajai Stadium in Guwahati. More than 10,000 artists from across Assam are expected to perform the traditional Bagurumba dance in a single synchronised presentation.

On January 18, around 11 am, Modi will perform the bhoomi pujan for the Kaziranga elevated corridor project, valued at over Rs 6,950 crore, at Kaliabor in Nagaon district. The 86-km project includes a 35-km elevated wildlife corridor passing through Kaziranga National Park, along with bypasses and highway widening works aimed at improving connectivity while protecting biodiversity.

During the Assam programme, the prime minister will also flag off two new Amrit Bharat Express trains — Guwahati (Kamakhya)–Rohtak and Dibrugarh–Lucknow (Gomti Nagar) — strengthening rail connectivity between the northeast and northern India.

Continue Reading

India News

NDA’s track record strikes chord as PM Modi hails Maharashtra civic polls win

Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed Maharashtra voters after the BJP-led NDA registered a historic victory in the BMC elections, ending decades of Shiv Sena dominance.

Published

7 hours ago

on

January 16, 2026

By

modi on maharashtra election

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday thanked the people of Maharashtra after the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance registered a landmark victory in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections, marking the first time the party has emerged on top in the country’s richest civic body.

In a post on X, the prime minister said the people of the state had endorsed the NDA’s agenda of governance and development. He said the results of municipal corporation elections across Maharashtra showed that the alliance’s bond with voters had further strengthened.

According to PM Modi, the NDA’s track record and vision for development had “struck a chord” with the electorate. He described the verdict as a mandate to accelerate progress while celebrating Maharashtra’s cultural legacy.

BJP-Shiv Sena alliance dominates BMC

As counting continued, trends showed the BJP leading in 90 of the 227 wards in Mumbai, while the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena was ahead in 28 wards. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction, which contested separately, was leading in only three wards.

On the opposition side, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena were ahead in 57 and nine wards respectively. The Congress, which contested in alliance with the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, was leading in 15 wards, while others were ahead in eight.

The outcome effectively ends the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s decades-long control over the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, which had been the party’s main power centre since its formation.

In the seat distribution, the BJP contested 137 wards and the Shinde-led Shiv Sena 90. The Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP fielded candidates in 94 wards. On the opposition side, Shiv Sena (UBT) contested 163 seats, the MNS 52, the Congress 143, and the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi 46.

Urban verdict weakens Pawar influence

The results in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad also sent a strong political message, indicating that the Pawar brand no longer guarantees success in key urban centres. Despite tactical coordination between the two NCP factions led by Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar, voters did not consolidate behind them.

In the Pune Municipal Corporation, the BJP emerged with a clear upper hand, either winning or leading in a significant number of wards. The NCP factions failed to convert their traditional influence into broader citywide support.

Thackeray retains Marathi Manoos connect but loses power base

Uddhav Thackeray appears to have retained a section of the Marathi Manoos vote in Mumbai, even as the Shinde-led Shiv Sena made inroads. While the Shiv Sena (UBT) managed a respectable showing in its traditional strongholds, the loss of control over the BMC is seen as a major setback.

Control of the civic body had long been central to the party’s political identity and a key factor in its alliances.

Devendra Fadnavis emerges as key strategist

Much of the credit for the BJP’s sweeping civic success is being attributed to Devendra Fadnavis. Under his leadership, the Mahayuti alliance has carried forward its assembly election momentum into municipal politics.

The results are being seen as reinforcing Fadnavis’s political standing, demonstrating that even combined opposition forces could not halt the BJP’s rise. The verdict has also challenged the long-held claim of the Thackeray family over Marathi votes in Mumbai.

Continue Reading

Trending

© Copyright 2022 APNLIVE.com