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Raghuram Rajan: I Did Not Favour Demonetization

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Raghuram Rajan

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Another jolt to Modi’s “success story”

Amid lot of controversy over why PM chose to go ahead for demonetization of big value currency notes in November last year, former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan has triggered another debate by revealing that he did not favour the move as he felt the short term economic costs associated with “such a disruptive” decision would outweigh any longer term benefit.

Rajan made the revelation in his book “I do what I do” to be released next week. It contains Rajan’s speeches on wide range of issues as RBI governor. However, he maintains that the book does not tell-all. His uneasy relationship and differences with the present government were clearly indicated in the short introductions and postscripts along with the pieces.

Rajan set aside all speculation that preparations for scrapping high-value bank notes got underway many months before PM made surprise announcement on November 8.  He said, “At no point during my term was the RBI asked to make a decision on demonetization.” 

Rajan, demitted office on September 3 last year, precisely 35 days before PM announced for demonetization of rupees 1000 and 500 bank notes.  He says that he chose not to speak on India for a year because he didn’t want to “intrude on his successor’s initial engagement with the public”. Former RBI governor now teaches economics at Chicago University.

While deliberating on his initial response to the government’s proposal for demonetization, Rajan writes, “I was asked by the government in February 2016 for my view on demonetization, which I gave orally. Although there might be long-term benefits, I felt the likely short-term economic costs would outweigh them.”   He clearly said, “I made these views known in no uncertain terms.”

The lingering impact of demonetization on the economy is far and wide. The latest government data showed that the GDP growth sharply slowed from 7 percent in October-December (2016) quarter to 6.1 percent in January-March and 5.7 in Aril-June 2017. This was primarily caused by the cash squeeze weakening customer spending capacity discouraging new investments. However, the government insists that the economic slowdown was not entirely caused by demonetization.

But former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, while responding to questions by a national daily described the GDP deceleration “as the costs of demonetization upfront.”

“Let us not mince words about it – GDP suffered. The estimates I have seen range from 1 to 2 percentage points, and that’s a lot of money – over Rs 2 lakh crore and may be approaching Rs 2.5 lakh crore,” he said.

After the demonetization, Nobel Laureate and eminent economist Amartya Sen had said, “The demonetisation of currency was a despotic act as the government broke the promise of compensation that comes with a promissory note.”

“Only an authoritarian government can calmly cause such misery to the people – with millions of innocent people being deprived of their money and being subjected to suffering, inconvenience and indignity in trying to get their own money back,” he had added.

Kaushik Basu, another prominent economist wrote in New York Times, “Demonetization was ostensibly implemented to combat corruption, terrorism financing and inflation. But it was poorly designed, with scant attention paid to the laws of the market, and it is likely to fail. So far its effects have been disastrous for the middle- and lower-middle classes, as well as the poor. And the worst may be yet to come.” 

Former Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, who had earlier been RBI governor and country’s Finance Minister, said, “In my opinion that the way the scheme has been implemented will hurt agricultural growth in our country, will hurt small industry, will hurt all those people who are in the informal sector of the economy. And my own feeling is that the national income, that is the GDP, can decline by about 2 per cent as a result of what has been done. This is an underestimate.”[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Hardeep Singh Puri elected unopposed to Rajya Sabha from Madhya Pradesh

Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has been elected unopposed to the Rajya Sabha from Madhya Pradesh after the nominations of two other candidates, including a Congress-backed nominee, were rejected.

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Hardeep Puri

Union Petroleum Minister and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Hardeep Singh Puri has been elected unopposed to the Rajya Sabha from Madhya Pradesh. The announcement was made on Thursday after the deadline for withdrawal of nominations ended, leaving Puri as the only candidate in the contest.

Puri’s election followed the rejection of nomination papers filed by two other candidates, Kante Sayanna and Rajkumar Lohani, who was backed by the Opposition Congress. Their nominations were rejected during the scrutiny process, making Puri the sole candidate remaining in the fray.

Returning Officer Umesh Sharma formally declared Puri elected to the Upper House of Parliament. Madhya Pradesh BJP president Hemant Khandelwal collected his certificate of election from the returning officer in the presence of party MLA Rameshwar Sharma.

Why Hardeep Singh Puri was elected unopposed

The Madhya Pradesh Rajya Sabha bypoll witnessed three candidates initially entering the contest. However, the nomination papers of the two other candidates did not clear scrutiny.

Kante Sayanna and Congress-backed candidate Rajkumar Lohani had their nominations rejected during the examination of election papers. With both candidates out of the contest, Puri remained the only candidate.

As a result, the returning officer declared him elected unopposed on the final day of withdrawal of nominations on November 5.

The bypoll, if required, had been scheduled to take place on November 12.

Why the Madhya Pradesh Rajya Sabha seat fell vacant

The by-election became necessary following the resignation of former Union minister L Murugan from the Rajya Sabha last month.

Murugan’s departure created a vacancy in the Upper House from Madhya Pradesh. His original term was scheduled to continue until April 2, 2030.

The BJP subsequently nominated Hardeep Singh Puri as its candidate for the by-election.

Puri, a former diplomat who later entered politics, currently serves as the Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas.

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Amit Shah challenges Rahul Gandhi to debate SIR in Parliament

Amit Shah responded to Rahul Gandhi’s public debate challenge by inviting him to discuss the SIR exercise in Parliament. He also criticised the Congress over its demand for Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar’s resignation.

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Union Home Minister Amit Shah has challenged Congress leader Rahul Gandhi to take up his demand for a public debate with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Parliament, saying the government is ready to convene a special session to discuss the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise.

Addressing a rally in Haryana’s Karnal, Shah directly responded to Gandhi’s challenge to the Prime Minister, asking the Congress leader to write to PM Modi if he wanted a discussion.

“I want to challenge Rahul Gandhi directly. You challenge PM Modi for a discussion? If you want a discussion, simply write a letter to PM Modi. We are ready to convene a special session of Parliament to discuss the SIR exercise… Come and debate in Parliament,” Shah said.

The remarks came two days after Rahul Gandhi issued another public debate challenge to the Prime Minister.

On November 3, Gandhi wrote in a post on X that PM Modi could choose any stage or venue for a discussion. He proposed debating allegations concerning who was anti-national and who had connections with foreign forces, adding that the media and the country’s youth should also be present.

Amit Shah targets Congress over SIR controversy

During his address, Shah also criticised the Congress over its demand for the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

Referring to the 2014, 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Home Minister argued that the Congress had lost despite no Special Intensive Revision exercise being conducted during those elections.

“Where was the SIR in 2014? You were completely wiped out even then. Where was SIR in 2019? You lost. There was no SIR in 2024 either, yet you lost again,” he said.

Shah also referred to the elections in Haryana and Maharashtra, claiming that there was no SIR exercise in either state when the Congress suffered electoral defeats.

He accused the Opposition of disrupting parliamentary proceedings and organising protests on the streets instead of allowing Parliament to function.

Shah criticises Rahul Gandhi over protests

The Home Minister further alleged that Rahul Gandhi and the Congress were creating disorder through street protests and parliamentary boycotts.

Shah said BJP workers would give a “fitting reply” if Gandhi continued to mobilise crowds on the streets.

He also questioned Gandhi’s claim to have mobilised large numbers of people for a rally in Delhi, alleging that the venue had a capacity of 70,000 and was still half empty despite an appeal to bring 10 lakh people.

“The people of the country have consistently defeated Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party. The people of the country are not with you or the Opposition alliance,” Shah said.

Amit Shah raises questions over Rahul Gandhi’s foreign visits

Shah also sought details about Rahul Gandhi’s foreign visits, arguing that people had a right to know about them.

“You’re Leader of Opposition… People have the right to know,” the Home Minister said.

His remarks came amid the continuing political confrontation between the BJP and Congress over the SIR exercise, electoral processes and the Opposition’s criticism of the Election Commission.

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Women’s cash schemes in Chhattisgarh ease inflation, not entrepreneurship

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By Neeraj Mishra

As Chhattisgarh celebrated its 26th Foundation Day with Home Minister Amit Shah as chief guest, there are worries about the cash programmes for women.

With the payment of the 33rd consecutive monthly installment of Mahtari Vandan Yojana to more than 67 lakh beneficiaries, Chhattisgarh has created a record of sorts. The 67 lakh women are supposed to have received a monthly cash dole of Rs 1000 per head in their accounts totaling to a mammoth Rs 21,350 crore. It translates into a very neat Rs 33000 per head for each married woman over the age of 21 so far.

And all these women are KYC- checked and receive the direct benefit transfer. If there are an average of  three married women in a joint family, then the amount totals to better than the average rise in paddy prices. That’s not all, there are six other women’s schemes which provide easy loans and rent free shops in good locations. These schemes pump in a further Rs 11,000 crore into each household every year. Further, the renamed MNREGA has another Rs 16,200 crore reserved for the state every year.

So far so good and it reads like a state government PR pamphlet. Now for the bad news. The cash dole has so far been absorbed by the family itself because of the inordinate rise in fuel prices. By all accounts only 23 per cent of the households who receive gas cylinders are able to continue buying it. Only 15 per cent of those who received loans for various trades including e-rickshaws have been able to sustain it. This is roughly about 41,000 women so far.

The state had also invested in physical infrastructure like sheds and shops for trades like mushroom farming, goat farming and small size hatcheries. Some shops were given rent free on prime locations in Raipur, Durg and Bilaspur etc. Most of these facilities have been abandoned as the self-help groups (SHGs) formed for the purpose haven’t been able to convert it into a profitable venture. In fact, each SHG, which usually has 11 women, is given a monthly encouragement amount of Rs 15,000 which is now being split amongst the group with nothing to show for it.  Most sheds have either broken down or have become illegally occupied. Better still, the shops have been handed over to businessmen to recover some of the cost.

“The main reason these schemes have not had the desired effect is lack of training and a general apathy on part of the entrepreneurs because of easy cash,” said an official. And that best sums it up.

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