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IIT scientists predict 33-35 lakh Covid active cases by May 15

Independent calculations by Gautam Menon and his team at Ashoka University in Haryana have predicted that the peak of the ongoing wave of infections could be between mid-April and mid-May.

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Covid cases

A mathematical module of the IIT scientists on Friday suggested that the ongoing second wave of Covid pandemic in India may peak between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh total active cases and decline steeply by the end of May. On Friday, India saw a single-day rise of 3,32,730 (3.32 lakh) Covid-19 infections and 2,263 fatalities with 24,28,616 (24.28 lakh) active cases.

Applying the Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach’ (SUTRA) model, the scientists from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur and Hyderabad predicted that the active cases would go up by about 10 lakh by mid-May.

The scientists also said Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan and Telangana may see a high of new cases by April 25-30, while Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh might already have reached their peak in new cases.


Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, IIT-Kanpur, said there is a reasonable chance that the active cases in India could peak sometime between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh cases. It is a sharp slope but on the way down, it would likely be equally sharp, coming down very fast and by end of May may see a dramatic reduction.


Earlier this month, the mathematical modelling approach predicted that active infections in the country would peak by April 15 but this didn’t come true. Aggrawal explained that the parameters in model for the current phase are continuously drifting. So it is hard to get their value right. He suggested even a little bit of change each day causes the peak numbers to change by several thousand.

The IIT Kanpur professor said that the SUTRA model’s prediction about new peak is sensitive to the daily new infections data. Agrawal noted that the model uses three main parameters to predict the course of the pandemic. The other two parameters are ‘reach’, which is a measure of the exposure level of the population to the pandemic, and ‘epsilon’ which is the ratio of detected and undetected cases. There are other mathematical modules as well.

Read Also: Emmanuel Macron shows solidarity with India amid Covid surge, says France ready to provide support

Independent calculations by Gautam Menon and his team at Ashoka University in Haryana have predicted that the peak of the ongoing wave of infections could be between mid-April and mid-May.

India News

Congress, BJP attack Bhagwant Mann over remarks on Punjab blasts

Congress and BJP have jointly criticised Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann after he linked recent blasts near defence sites to political motives, triggering a controversy.

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Bhagwant Mann

A political row has erupted in Punjab after Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann linked recent blast incidents to political motives, drawing sharp criticism from both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The controversy follows two low-intensity explosions reported within a short span of time — one near the Border Security Force (BSF) headquarters in Jalandhar and another close to an army cantonment area in Amritsar. The incidents raised concerns over security, particularly given the sensitive nature of the locations.

In response, Mann suggested that the blasts could be part of a larger political strategy. His remarks triggered a strong backlash, with opposition parties accusing him of politicising a serious security issue.

Leaders from the Congress criticised the Chief Minister’s statement, calling it inappropriate and alleging that such comments undermine the gravity of the situation. They stressed that matters related to national security should be handled with caution and responsibility.

The BJP also joined the criticism, questioning the basis of Mann’s claims and urging the state government to focus on investigation and law enforcement instead of making political allegations.

The developments have led to an unusual moment where both Congress and BJP appear aligned in their criticism of the Aam Aadmi Party-led government in the state.

Meanwhile, the blasts themselves have intensified concerns over safety in border regions, with authorities continuing their investigation into the incidents. No casualties were reported, but the proximity to defence establishments has made the issue particularly sensitive.

The episode has further escalated political tensions in the state, with security and accountability emerging as key points of debate.

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Himanta Biswa Sarma resigns as Assam chief minister, oath ceremony likely after May 11

Himanta Biswa Sarma resigns as Assam Chief Minister after BJP-led NDA’s victory. He will continue as caretaker CM until the new government is sworn in after May 11.

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Himanta sharma

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma resigned from his post on Wednesday, paving the way for the formation of a new government after the BJP-led NDA secured a decisive victory in the 2026 Assembly elections.

Sarma submitted his resignation to Governor Lakshman Prasad Acharya at Lok Bhawan in Guwahati. The Governor accepted the resignation and asked him to continue as the caretaker Chief Minister until the new government takes charge.

The resignation comes after the NDA’s strong electoral performance, where the alliance won a clear majority in the 126-member Assembly, ensuring its return to power for another term.

Oath ceremony expected after May 11

Speaking to reporters after submitting his resignation, Sarma said the swearing-in ceremony for the new government is likely to be held after May 11.

He indicated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited to attend the ceremony but is unavailable until May 11, which has influenced the tentative schedule.

Decision on next chief minister soon

Sources suggest that central observers, including senior BJP leaders, are expected to arrive shortly to oversee the selection of the legislature party leader. The newly elected MLAs will then decide on the next Chief Minister.

Despite the formal resignation, party sources indicate that Sarma is likely to continue in the role for another term, given the BJP’s strong mandate in the state.

The move marks the beginning of the government formation process in Assam following the election results declared earlier this week.

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Rahul Gandhi and Vijay alliance took shape through backchannel talks, early signals from Congress leaders

Congress outreach and political calculations led to Rahul Gandhi and Vijay coming together after the Tamil Nadu 2026 election results.

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The coming together of Rahul Gandhi and actor-politician Vijay in Tamil Nadu after the 2026 Assembly elections was not sudden, but the result of behind-the-scenes political manoeuvring and early signals within the Congress.

According to media reports, some leaders in the Tamil Nadu Congress had already sensed the scale of Vijay’s surge during the campaign, anticipating what was later described as a “wave” in favour of his party.

After the results, where Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerged as the single largest party but fell short of a majority, communication channels between the Congress leadership and Vijay quickly became active.

A key moment in this evolving political equation was a phone call from Rahul Gandhi to Vijay, congratulating him on the party’s strong performance. The conversation was seen as more than a courtesy, signalling the possibility of cooperation at a time when government formation required additional support.

Reports indicate that discussions within Congress weighed the political benefits of supporting Vijay, especially given the shifting dynamics in the state where traditional dominance by major Dravidian parties has been challenged.

With TVK needing allies to cross the majority mark, Congress emerged as a potential partner, leading to a broader political realignment in the state. This development also triggered tensions within opposition alliances, highlighting the strategic importance of the decision.

The evolving partnership reflects a mix of electoral pragmatism and changing voter sentiment, particularly the growing influence of younger voters, which leaders acknowledged as a key factor in the election outcome.

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