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IIT scientists predict 33-35 lakh Covid active cases by May 15

Independent calculations by Gautam Menon and his team at Ashoka University in Haryana have predicted that the peak of the ongoing wave of infections could be between mid-April and mid-May.

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Covid cases

A mathematical module of the IIT scientists on Friday suggested that the ongoing second wave of Covid pandemic in India may peak between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh total active cases and decline steeply by the end of May. On Friday, India saw a single-day rise of 3,32,730 (3.32 lakh) Covid-19 infections and 2,263 fatalities with 24,28,616 (24.28 lakh) active cases.

Applying the Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach’ (SUTRA) model, the scientists from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur and Hyderabad predicted that the active cases would go up by about 10 lakh by mid-May.

The scientists also said Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan and Telangana may see a high of new cases by April 25-30, while Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh might already have reached their peak in new cases.


Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, IIT-Kanpur, said there is a reasonable chance that the active cases in India could peak sometime between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh cases. It is a sharp slope but on the way down, it would likely be equally sharp, coming down very fast and by end of May may see a dramatic reduction.


Earlier this month, the mathematical modelling approach predicted that active infections in the country would peak by April 15 but this didn’t come true. Aggrawal explained that the parameters in model for the current phase are continuously drifting. So it is hard to get their value right. He suggested even a little bit of change each day causes the peak numbers to change by several thousand.

The IIT Kanpur professor said that the SUTRA model’s prediction about new peak is sensitive to the daily new infections data. Agrawal noted that the model uses three main parameters to predict the course of the pandemic. The other two parameters are ‘reach’, which is a measure of the exposure level of the population to the pandemic, and ‘epsilon’ which is the ratio of detected and undetected cases. There are other mathematical modules as well.

Read Also: Emmanuel Macron shows solidarity with India amid Covid surge, says France ready to provide support

Independent calculations by Gautam Menon and his team at Ashoka University in Haryana have predicted that the peak of the ongoing wave of infections could be between mid-April and mid-May.

India News

Abhishek Banerjee says will not bow to BJP after nearly 11 hours of ED questioning

After spending nearly 11 hours before the Enforcement Directorate, TMC leader Abhishek Banerjee said he would not bow to the BJP and accused the ruling party of using investigative agencies for political purposes.

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Abhishek Banerjee

Trinamool Congress leader and Diamond Harbour MP Abhishek Banerjee on Tuesday said he would not bow to the BJP after spending nearly 11 hours being questioned by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in connection with an ongoing investigation.

Speaking after the questioning, Banerjee alleged that central agencies were being used to target opposition leaders and asserted that he would continue his political fight despite what he described as sustained pressure.

The TMC leader has repeatedly maintained that investigations involving him are politically motivated, a charge he has made on several previous occasions while appearing before central agencies.

His appearance before the ED comes amid a period of heightened political activity and multiple investigations involving leaders in West Bengal. Recent days have also seen Banerjee face summons and questioning in separate matters by state investigative agencies.

After leaving the ED office, Banerjee reiterated that he would not be intimidated and said he remained committed to his political responsibilities. He also accused the BJP of attempting to weaken opposition parties through investigative action, an allegation that the BJP has rejected in the past.

The Enforcement Directorate has not publicly commented on Banerjee’s remarks. The investigation related to the questioning remains ongoing.

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India News

DMK attacks Rahul Gandhi, accuses him of weakening opposition unity

DMK has intensified its criticism of Rahul Gandhi, alleging that the Congress leader’s actions have weakened opposition unity and strained relations within the INDIA bloc.

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Rahul-Gandhi

The war of words between the DMK and Congress has intensified, with the DMK launching a strong attack on Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi and accusing him of contributing to divisions within the opposition alliance. The criticism comes amid strained ties between the two parties following their political split in Tamil Nadu.

According to the DMK, Rahul Gandhi’s political approach has weakened unity among opposition parties. The party’s IT wing mocked the Congress leader on social media, while an editorial published in the DMK’s official mouthpiece Murasoli questioned his recent remarks on opposition solidarity.

DMK questions Rahul Gandhi’s remarks on opposition unity

In its editorial, Murasoli argued that Rahul Gandhi was speaking about opposition unity despite, according to the DMK, contributing to disagreements among alliance partners in several states. The publication cited criticism directed at Congress by various opposition parties and suggested that the party’s actions had often created tensions within the INDIA bloc.

The editorial also referred to past political disputes involving Congress and Left parties, particularly in Kerala, claiming such episodes had raised concerns among opposition allies about Congress’s approach toward its partners.

Tamil Nadu political fallout adds to tensions

The attack comes after a major political realignment in Tamil Nadu. Following the 2026 Assembly elections, Congress ended its alliance with the DMK and joined the government led by Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). The move left the DMK in the opposition and significantly altered the political equation between the two former allies.

The DMK has alleged that Congress benefited from the alliance during the election and later abandoned its partner. The party’s editorial questioned whether assurances from Congress leadership would be trusted by alliance partners after the developments in Tamil Nadu.

Congress rejects allegations

Congress has not issued a detailed official response to the editorial, but party sources have rejected the allegations. According to the party, its decisions in Tamil Nadu were made in line with the mandate delivered by voters and were not intended to undermine either the DMK or the broader opposition alliance.

The latest exchange highlights growing strains between two key opposition parties even as leaders continue to stress cooperation on national issues. Just days earlier, Rahul Gandhi had said that the DMK remained aligned with the opposition on defending the “idea of India” despite political differences.

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Entertainment

Kumkum Bhagya actor Sanchita Ugale dies by suicide near Mumbai at 22

Television actor Sanchita Ugale, known for Kumkum Bhagya and Wagle Ki Duniya, died by suicide at her residence near Mumbai. Police have launched an investigation.

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Sanchita Ugale

Television actor Sanchita Ugale, known for her appearances in Kumkum Bhagya, Wagle Ki Duniya and Dilwali Dulha Le Jayegi, died by suicide at her residence in Nalasopara East near Mumbai on June 14. She was 22.

According to police officials, the incident took place at her home in Achole village, Nalasopara East. Authorities said Ugale had locked herself inside her bedroom and was later found hanging from a ceiling fan. Family members and local residents rushed her to a hospital, where doctors declared her dead.

Police have registered an Accidental Death Report (ADR) and launched an investigation into the circumstances surrounding her death. Officials said inquiries are underway and the exact reason behind the incident has not yet been established.

Career across television, OTT and films

Ugale had built a growing presence in the entertainment industry through television, streaming projects and films. Apart from Kumkum Bhagya and Wagle Ki Duniya, she played a lead role in Dilwali Dulha Le Jayegi. She also appeared in OTT projects such as Crime Aaj Kal and Silence 2.

The actor was also associated with the film Chhaava, which contributed to her growing recognition among audiences.

Last social media post draws attention

Following news of her death, social media users shared and commented on Ugale’s final Instagram post, which had been uploaded hours before the incident. The post showed the actor in traditional attire lip-syncing to a classic Bollywood song. Fans expressed shock and grief after learning of her death.

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