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IIT scientists predict 33-35 lakh Covid active cases by May 15

Independent calculations by Gautam Menon and his team at Ashoka University in Haryana have predicted that the peak of the ongoing wave of infections could be between mid-April and mid-May.

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Covid cases

A mathematical module of the IIT scientists on Friday suggested that the ongoing second wave of Covid pandemic in India may peak between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh total active cases and decline steeply by the end of May. On Friday, India saw a single-day rise of 3,32,730 (3.32 lakh) Covid-19 infections and 2,263 fatalities with 24,28,616 (24.28 lakh) active cases.

Applying the Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach’ (SUTRA) model, the scientists from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur and Hyderabad predicted that the active cases would go up by about 10 lakh by mid-May.

The scientists also said Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan and Telangana may see a high of new cases by April 25-30, while Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh might already have reached their peak in new cases.


Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, IIT-Kanpur, said there is a reasonable chance that the active cases in India could peak sometime between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh cases. It is a sharp slope but on the way down, it would likely be equally sharp, coming down very fast and by end of May may see a dramatic reduction.


Earlier this month, the mathematical modelling approach predicted that active infections in the country would peak by April 15 but this didn’t come true. Aggrawal explained that the parameters in model for the current phase are continuously drifting. So it is hard to get their value right. He suggested even a little bit of change each day causes the peak numbers to change by several thousand.

The IIT Kanpur professor said that the SUTRA model’s prediction about new peak is sensitive to the daily new infections data. Agrawal noted that the model uses three main parameters to predict the course of the pandemic. The other two parameters are ‘reach’, which is a measure of the exposure level of the population to the pandemic, and ‘epsilon’ which is the ratio of detected and undetected cases. There are other mathematical modules as well.

Read Also: Emmanuel Macron shows solidarity with India amid Covid surge, says France ready to provide support

Independent calculations by Gautam Menon and his team at Ashoka University in Haryana have predicted that the peak of the ongoing wave of infections could be between mid-April and mid-May.

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Farmers leave protest site on Noida Expressway, police remove barricades

The farmers temporarily shifted their protest to Ambedkar Park but threatened to resume their march towards the national capital, if their demands were not met on time.

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Farmers leave protest site on Noida Expressway, police remove barricades

Hundreds of farmers, who gathered for Delhi Chalo march over several demands agreed to vacate the protest site on Monday evening, allowing traffic movements along the Noida-Greater Noida expressway.

Reportedly, after a meeting with the Noida authorities, Bhartiya Kisan Parishad leader Sukhbir Khalifa, who is spearheading the protests, decided to give the Centre a week’s time to fulfill the farmers’ various demands, including a legislation on Minimum Support Prices (MSPs). The protestors temporarily shifted their protest to Ambedkar Park but threatened to resume their march towards the national capital, if their demands were not met on time.

Earlier on Monday, massive traffic snarls caused inconvenience to commuters crossing the Delhi-Noida border, as police set up multiple barricades to avert the farmers from Uttar Pradesh from marching towards the Parliament complex. 

After the farmers’ gathered near the Mahamaya flyover in Noida on Monday afternoon, some of them broke a few barricades and attempted to continue with their march. The protest is being supported by the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha (KMM), the Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) and other farmer organisations.

Shivhari Meena, Joint CP Law and Order Noida, Shivhari Meena, told a news agency that the farmers had announced the Delhi Challo march today and they were continuously holding talks with them. She added that the farmers have told their demands to the officials and officials have given them an assurance. 

Additional Commissioner of Police, Eastern Range of Delhi Police,Sagar Singh Kalsi, had told a news agency that owing to farmers’ protest, they have made strong and robust arrangements at all major, minor borders in East Delhi.

Beside a legal guarantee on the MSP, the protesters are demanding farm loan waiver, pension for farmers and farm labourers, no hike in the electricity tariff, withdrawal of police cases and justice for the victims of the 2021 Lakhimpur Kheri violence, reinstatement of the Land Acquisition Act, 2013 and compensation to the families of the farmers who died during a previous agitation in 2020-21.

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Amid Chief Minister suspense, BJP appoints Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, former Gujarat CM Vijay Rupani as central observers for Maharashtra

The oath-taking ceremony for the new government is set for the evening of December 5 at Azad Maidan in Mumbai, with Prime Minister Modi in attendance.

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Amid Chief Minister suspense, BJP appoints Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, former Gujarat CM Vijay Rupani as central observers for Maharashtra

The BJP on Monday appointed Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and former Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani as central observers for its legislature meeting in Maharashtra to select its leader. This comes amid ongoing suspense over Maharashtra’s next Chief Minister.

More than a week after the BJP-led NDA, also called Mahayuti, secured a landslide win in the Maharashtra assembly elections, the new government is yet to be sworn in. BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis is expected to be elected as the legislature party leader in a meeting scheduled for December 3. Reportedly, all BJP MLAs have been directed to be present in Mumbai for the event.

In the Assembly Elections, the Mahayuti alliance secured 230 out of 288 assembly seats, with the BJP winning 132 seats, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena claiming 57, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP taking 41 seats. The oath-taking ceremony for the new government is set for the evening of December 5 at Azad Maidan in Mumbai, with Prime Minister Modi in attendance.

Notably, the BJP is proceeding cautiously as the aspirations of its allies, especially the Shiv Sena, have risen following the massive election victory. Despite Eknath Shinde’s push for unity within the Mahayuti, some allied leaders have expressed differing views.

Former Union minister and BJP leader Raosaheb Danve said that if the undivided Shiv Sena and BJP had contested the elections together, they would have secured more seats. Shiv Sena MLA Gulabrao Patil also claimed that the Eknath Shinde-led party would have won 90-100 seats had Ajit Pawar’s NCP not been part of the alliance, provoking a strong response from the Ajit Pawar-led party.

The BJP legislature party meeting to elect the leader, who will be the party’s chief ministerial pick, is yet to be held even though Shiv Sena and NCP have elected Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar as their legislature party leaders, respectively. Meanwhile, a senior Mahayuti leader said the allies will jointly decide whether only the Chief Minister and deputy CMs will take oath on December 5 or ministers will also be sworn in.

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Eknath Shinde cancels meetings again, Ajit Pawar flies to Delhi to meet BJP leaders

The Shiv Sena leader did not return to his official residence, Varsha, and had been staying in his native village in Satara over the weekend.

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Eknath Shinde cancels meetings again, Ajit Pawar flies to Delhi to meet BJP leaders

The conundrum over finalising the next Maharashtra Chief Minister continues after 10 days as caretaker Chief Minister Eknath Shinde cancelled his meetings today as he was unwell. Earlier on November 29, the Shiv Sena leader cancelled a crucial meeting of Mahayuti, and unexpectedly left for his village in Satara district. Meanwhile, NCP leader Ajit Pawar headed to Delhi to meet with top BJP leadership over government formation.

Reportedly, Eknath Shinde, who was supposed to attend a meeting of Mahayuti leaders to finalise the portfolio allocations, is down with a throat infection and fever. The Shiv Sena leader did not return to his official residence, Varsha, and had been staying in his native village in Satara over the weekend. The meeting is scheduled to be held on Tuesday.

The Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP, swept the November 20 Maharashtra Assembly election, winning 230 of 288 seats, the results of which were declared on November 23. The BJP secured a massive 132 seats, while Shinde Sena and NCP’s Ajit Pawar faction got 57 and 41 seats, respectively. Reportedly, Ajit Pawar may discuss the Maharashtra government formation and portfolio allocations with the top BJP leadership in Delhi today.

In another major development, Eknath Shinde’s son and Shiv Sena MP Shrikant Shinde rejected reports of a demand for the Deputy Chief Minister post for him. Shrikant Shinde called the reports baseless rumours and said he was not in any race for any ministerial post in Maharashtra.

His clarification came after speculation arose that he would be considered for the Deputy Chief Minister’s post. Taking to X, Shrikant Shinde wrote that the swearing-in ceremony of the coalition government has been a bit delayed and currently there is a lot of discussion and rumours. He added that caretaker Chief Minister Eknath Shinde went to the village for two days and rested due to ill health, and so the rumours flourished. 

He continued that the news that he will be the Deputy Chief Minister has no truth in it and is baseless. The Shiv Sena MP mentioned that he got the chance to become a Cabinet minister after the NDA’s victory in the Lok Sabha elections and asserted he had no desire for a position in power.

He stated that after the Lok Sabha elections, he had a chance to become a minister in the central government. However, he thought about working for the party and refused the ministerial post even then. He added that he is not in the race for any ministerial position in the state.

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