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IMD says monsoon to be ‘near-normal’ at 96% amid weak El Nino

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IMD says monsoon to be ‘near-normal’ at 96% amid weak El Nino

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]India could witness a near-normal monsoon this season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast said today (Tuesday, April 16), bringing good news to the nation’s largely rain-fed agriculture after poor rains and drought last year.

“There is good news—the monsoon is likely to be near normal. The rainfall in the four-month season from June to September is likely to be 96% of the 50-year average of 89 cm with a model error of +/-5%,” M. Rajeevan, secretary at the ministry of earth sciences, said while releasing IMD’s first long-range forecast for the monsoon this year.

The south-west monsoon, which makes its onset over the country in June, irrigates over half of India’s cropland and sustains the livelihood of over 58% of its population that is dependent on agriculture. The monsoon forecast is crucial, as it directly influences agricultural production and has a spiralling impact on inflation and growth.

“It does not seem to be bad news. However, much depends on how far the rainfall is going to be evenly distributed across regions and if the areas already facing dry conditions would see some respite. There is still some uncertainty over that,” said D.K. Joshi, chief economist at Crisil.

According to the weather department, there is 39% probability of normal rainfall, 32% probability of below normal and 17% probability of deficient rains. There are low chances of the monsoon rainfall being above normal (10%) or in excess (2%).

The monsoon was dismal in 2018 ending with an overall deficit of 9.4%, pushing several states including Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Gujarat, Telangana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh into drought.

The crisis deepened after the north-east monsoon, which brings rainfall over the southern states, also fared poorly and ended with a deficit as high as 44%.

“Our climate models suggest that the rainfall would be well-distributed. It would be good for the farmers during the upcoming kharif season,” said K.J. Ramesh, director general of meteorology at IMD. The sowing of kharif crops begins in June.

IMD officials, however, did not completely negate the risk of weak El Niño conditions prevailing over equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is a weather phenomenon linked to below normal rains and drought.

“Weak El Nino conditions would persist in the monsoon season, but with reduced intensity. It peaked in February. Its intensity would decrease further from July onwards, which is an agriculturally crucial month. However, we could see some impact in June,” said the IMD head, assuaging concerns about the potential impact of El Nino.

“There is an undercurrent of risk due to El Nino, but it is on the downside. We do not know if it would have any direct or indirect impact, but whatever it would be, it does not seem to be big,” said N.R. Bhanumurthy, professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi.

Last year, IMD overestimated the monsoon rainfall. Contrary to its forecast of 97% of the long period average (LPA), which was later reduced to 95% of LPA, the actual rainfall was recorded at 91% of LPA, which fell in the below-normal category.

“Our forecast was accurate for all regions, but we failed miserably in predicting the north-east region. The region recorded the lowest rainfall—at 76% of LPA—which has not happened in years,” Rajeevan said. “But this time, it is clearly a normal monsoon. The uncertainty is on account of +/-5% model error.”

After consecutive drought years due to El Nino in 2014 and 2015, India’s monsoon prospects improved in 2016 when the country recorded normal rainfall at 97% of LPA. In 2017, rainfall was near normal at 95% of LPA but then dropped last year to a below normal level of 91% of LPA.

IMD will monitor the El Nino conditions and update its forecast in the first week of June, with predictions for region-wise and month-wise rainfall. The onset of monsoon over the southern coast will be announced around 15 May.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Dust storm, light rain expected in Delhi-NCR today, heatwave conditions to abate

IMD claimed in a tweet that Thunderstorm dust with light to moderate intensity rain and gusty winds with speed of 30-50 km/hr would occur over and adjoining areas of many places of Delhi, North Delhi, North East Delhi, North west Delhi, West Delhi, Central Delhi, East delhi and NCR( Loni Dehat, Hindon AF station, Ghaziabad, Indrapuram, Chapraula) Sonipat, Rohtak, Kharkhoda (Haryana) Baraut, Bagpat, Meerut, Khekra, Modinagar, Kithor , Garhmukhteshwar, Pilakhua, Hapur ,Gulaoti ,Siyana ,Sikandrabad , Bulandshahr ,  Jahangirabad (UP)

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Dust storm, light rain expected in Delhi-NCR today, heatwave conditions to abate

On Wednesday, a dust storm with light to moderate rain is expected in numerous locations in Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR). The India Meteorogical Department (IMD) stated the city’s maximum and minimum temperatures are predicted to be in the range of 40 and 25, respectively.

The IMD tweeted an advisory that thunderstorms, dust with light to moderate intensity rain and gusty winds with speed of 30-50 km/hr would occur over and adjoining areas of many places of Delhi, North Delhi, North East Delhi, North West Delhi, West Delhi, Central Delhi, East Delhi and NCR (Loni Dehat, Hindon AF station, Ghaziabad, Indirapuram, Chapraula) Sonipat, Rohtak, Kharkhoda (Haryana), Baraut, Bagpat, Meerut, Khekra, Modinagar, Kithor, Garhmukhteshwar, Pilakhua, Hapur, Gulaoti, Siyana, Sikandrabad, Bulandshahr, Jahangirabad (UP).

For the next two hours, light to moderate intermittent rain is expected over and near Adampur, Hissar, Hansi, and Meham (Haryana).

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On Thursday, May 18, light rain is predicted for in Delhi based on the seven-day prediction for the city. The sky will mainly be cloudy, with the potential of a light  rain or drizzle, according to the weather office.

The air quality will continue to be deteriorated in the city after strong winds with dust swept across the Delhi-NCR on Tuesday. Following this, visibility had reduced to 1000 metres. Kuldeep Srivastava, the head of regional forecasting centre, said the dry atmosphere is one of the reasons for the dust storms.

Following Tuesday’s severe winds and dust storm that blasted across the Delhi-NCR, the city’s air quality had taken an alarming dip.

The monsoons, which are awaited across India, are likely to make landfall in Kerala on June 4. Usually, the monsoon arrives on May 31 or June 1 but the delay will be made up as the phenomenon progresses on its south-west to north-east arc. With extreme temperatures right from a cold sytart to May to dust-laden winds in mid-May, the weather in the country is paying the price for accelerating climate change.

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Security lapse at Navjot Singh Sidhu’s Patiala home, says it will not deter him from raising his voice against Punjab

After his release from jail, he slammed the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government for its law and order in the state.

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Navjot Singh Sidhu

Congress leader Navjot Singh Sidhu has filed a complaint with the Punjab Police after he spotted a suspicious person wrapped in a grey blanket on his terrace. He alleged a security lapse at his Patiala home. He couldn’t catch him as he fled after his servant raised an alarm.

Taking to Twitter, Sidhu said, Today on the terrace of his residence an unknown suspicious character wrapped in a grey blanket was noticed around 7:00 pm, the moment his servant went out raised the alarm, and called for help, he immediately ran and escaped.

The 59-year-old further said that he has spoken to DGP Punjab Police and has also informed SSP Patiala. He said the security lapse will not deter him from raising his voice for Punjab.

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Punjab Police registered a case in this matter. According to the reports, the Patiala Senior Superintendent of Police Varun Sharma visited his residence after the complaint and is currently investigating the matter. The CCTV footage of the area is also being scanned, reports state.

Cricketer-turned-politician came out of the Patiala Central Jail on April 1 after serving nearly 10 months in a 1988 road rage case. After his release from jail, he slammed the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government for its law and order in the state.

He said Democracy is in chains. Punjab is the shield of this country. When dictatorship came in this country, a revolution also came, led by Rahul Gandhi.

Sidhu also slammed the Mann government over the pruning of security of slain singer Sidhu Moosewala and also making it public.

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Air India Delhi-San Francisco flight suffers tech glitch before take-off, returns to stand

The airline has not given any official statement in this matter.

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Air India Flight

Air India flight which was en route to San Francisco from Delhi on Monday had to be returned to the stand because of a technical glitch. The San Francisco-bound flight suffered a tech issue before take off.

According to the reports, the aircraft which was carrying over 200 passengers from Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGI) had to be replaced with another aircraft. Later, the passengers were accommodated in another aircraft.

The airline has not given any official statement in this matter.

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Earlier today, another Air India incident occurred where a London-bound flight returned to Delhi’s IGI airport after a mid-air brawl between an unruly passenger and the flight’s cabin crew.

A brawl ensued between a passenger and the crew members shortly after it departed from the airport at around 6:35 am. The onboard ruckus forced the plane to turn around and return to Delhi again where the raucous passenger was deboarded and handed over to the police at the airport.

Air India apologized to the passengers on the affected Delhi-London flight for the delay and inconvenience caused to them due to the incident and assured them that efforts will be made to ensure such incidents do not occur in the future.

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