The International Monetary Fund warned that the ongoing Covid second wave in India, following a terrible wave in Brazil, is a sign that the worst may be yet to come in the developing world. Observing India’s ongoing Covid situation, the IMF wrote in its report that the situation in the country is a warning of the possible events in low-and middle-income nations that have seemingly escaped the pandemic till now.
A report co-authored by International Monetary Fund (IMF) economist Ruchir Agarwal and its Chief Economist Gita Gopinath on Friday said under the business-as-usual scenario, the vaccine coverage in India is expected to remain under 35% of the population by the end of 2021.
The report said India’s health system is so overwhelmed as the people are dying due to lack of medical supplies like oxygen, hospital beds and medical care while the system was fairly well during the first wave. The IMF has said that the situation in India is a warning of the possible events in low- and middle-income nations that have seemingly escaped the pandemic till now
For India, the report said, current bilateral purchases of vaccine plus coverage from Covaxin will cover about 25% of its population by the first half of 2022. However, India will need to immediately place sufficient vaccine orders of about 1 billion doses to get to 60% coverage.
In this context, the report said that the authorities had recently announced financing of about 600 million USD to the Serum Institute of India and Bharat Biotech to boost production capacity in the near term is a welcome step. In the report, authorities estimated that two billion doses will be available by the end of 2021.
In its report, the IMF said that an urgent focus should be to eliminate constraints on cross-border exports of critical raw materials and finished vaccines. Free cross-border flow of vaccine inputs and supplies is essential for the world to achieve its vaccination targets without delay.
The IMF report said India continues to face production bottlenecks, including due to ongoing shortages of critical raw materials, suggesting the need for further relaxation of de facto export restrictions under the US Defence Production Act.
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Indian authorities are currently pursuing a strategy of procuring vaccines for those above 45 years of age by the central government while enabling states to procure vaccines for those aged 18-44.