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First phase of Gujarat polls will make or mar Cong prospects

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The first phase covers the area which yielded BJP its majority of seats in 2012; it is also the region where the leaders of the Patidar-OBC-Dalit combine ranged against BJP wield greater influence in the state.

The first phase of keenly watched, keenly contested elections to Gujarat Assembly began on Saturday with enthusiastic voter turnout (35.52% till 2 pm) recorded from the start. Polling is being held in 89 of the total 182 constituencies with 977 candidates in the fray.

The BJP faces its most serious challenge in Gujarat in the years from 1995 that it has been in power in the state: apart from 22 years of incumbency, there are the factor of alienated sections of Patidars, OBCs and Dalits ranged against it, the discontent of farmers and the disquiet among the traders and small entrepreneurs over GST and demonetisation which has hurt them badly.

The BJP is primarily banking on the stature and appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to win back the state.

The Congress kept away from talking about Muslims and minorities, focusing more on other aspects. It had the Modi government and BJP on the defensive over Rafale deal, alleging that purchase of the fighter aircraft was overpriced and meant to benefit one industrial house. It also talked about the business deals of BJP president Amit Shah’s son Jay Shah.

While the opposition sought to focus on shortcomings and failures of the BJP, the BJP tried to deflect attention and win back the initiative in setting the agenda for discourse. A high-pitched campaign marked the electioneering that got shriller as the polling day approached – and seemed likely to go on till it comes to an end to days before the second and final phase of election on Dec 14.

The BJP, reputed for its organised, methodical functioning, was so caught up in this that it forgot to come up with a manifesto for the elections. It hurriedly put together and announced a ‘vision document’ – after Patidar leader Hardik Patel’s taunt: that the BJP was so busy making sex CDs (about him) that it forgot to prepare an election manifesto.

In the final days, the BJP managed to make the poll campaign a contest between Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with the latter turning it into a question of his personal honour linking it to Gujarat’s prestige in the final stages. If people had forgotten, he revived their memory, listing all the epithets used for him by different Congress leaders. For Rahul Gandhi and Congress, Modi used names of various Muslim rulers of the past. Whether this clicks with the electorate or not, it is widely acknowledged that Modi’s personal stature and appeal remains intact among the voters of the state.

This translates into election results – gain or loss of seats – being viewed as a reflection on how far the Modi magic worked.

Of the 89 seats that saw polling in the first phase on Saturday, the BJP won 63 in the last state elections held in 2012: it has been stronger in this part of the state. The Congress had won only 22 of the seats here, 1 JD(U), 1 NCP, 2 GPP (Gujarat Parivartan Party) while the remaining went to others.

The areas going to polls are spread over Kutch, Saurashtra and south Gujarat, covering 19 districts of Kutch, Morbi, Jamnagar, Surendranagar, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Rajkot, Botad, Porbandar, Junagadh, Amreli, Gir Somnath, Bhavnagar, Bharuch, Narmada, Surat, Tapi, Navsari, Dang and Valsad.

For the BJP, this phase is crucial since it was this region where its success rate has been highest. Of its total tally of 115 in 2012, 63 came from this part of the state. Of the remaining 93 seats to go to polls on Dec 14, it got 52 – still a majority, but a narrower margin, with Congress winning in 39 constituencies to take its total to 61 seats.

This also the where the actual test of the influence of the three leaders, Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani, from Patidar, OBC and Dalit communities, respectively, will be. This is where they, especially Patels, have greatest presence. Thakor has greater influence in north Gujarat where polling would be held on Dec 14.

In particular, Hardik Patel’s influence would be tested in Saurashstra where Patidars are said to have 35 to 40 per cent of vote share. GST impact, if any, would be seen in Surat. The BJP held 15 of the 16 seats in Surat. The area with dominant presence of diamond merchants had witnessed massive protests against the tax reform.

The Saurashtra region will see some more high profile battles involving cabinet minister Babubhai Bokhiria, Arjun Modhwadia of Congress and former finance and power minister Saurabh Patel.

The most significant contest is for the seat held by Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, Rajkot West. Rupani is pitted against Congress candidate Indraneel Rajyaguru, the outgoing MLA from Rajkot East.

Another interesting battle would be for the Dhoraji seat, where Hardik Patel’s key aide, Lalit Vasoya, has been fielded by the Congress’ ticket. Vasoya will be taking on veteran BJP leader and former Lok Sabha MP Harilal Patel on this Patel community-dominated Assembly constituency in Rajkot district. Dhoraji is the only Assembly constituency on which Congress has fielded a leader from Hardik Patel-led Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS).

Other areas to be watched include Bharuch – the backyard of Ahmad Patel, the Congress leader wielding an influence in the party disproportionate to his popular standing. The Congress was wiped out in the area, failing to win any of its 5 constituencies in 2012.

Valsad, also with five seats, would also need watching – rallies of Modi and BJP president Amit Shah in this part were a dismal flop. The Congress had won two of the seats there in 2012.

Somnath, too falls in the first phase. Rahul Gandhi’s visit to Somnath and the party’s ‘faux pas’, in entering his name in the visitor’s register meant for non-Hindus, was raked up by the BJP and Modi who went on to equate him with various Muslim rulers of the past. The Congress had won two of the three seats there.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Congress Dismisses Karnataka Leadership Transition Rumors After Six-Hour Delhi Meet

The Congress party has rejected ongoing rumors regarding a leadership change or a rotating Chief Minister formula in Karnataka, stating that a recent six-hour meeting in Delhi focused strictly on the upcoming Rajya Sabha and MLC elections.

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The Congress party has strongly downplayed the intense political buzz surrounding a potential leadership transition or a change in the Chief Minister’s post in Karnataka. Following a marathon six-hour meeting with the state’s top leadership in New Delhi, the party explicitly rejected the ongoing speculation, labeling it as having “no reality.”

A brief statement issued to the media after the high-level meeting advised against spreading rumors, clarifying that the discussions were entirely centered on upcoming electoral strategies rather than structural changes within the state government. The party stated that the deliberations solely revolved around the state’s three vacant Rajya Sabha seats and the upcoming Member of Legislative Council (MLC) elections.

Rajya Sabha and MLC Polls Take Center Stage

The high-stakes meeting was attended by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, senior leader Rahul Gandhi, and party General Secretary KC Venugopal, alongside Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar.

Briefing the media post-meeting, KC Venugopal stated that conversations were strictly confined to the Rajya Sabha and MLC elections, emphasizing that there is no truth to any other political speculation. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah also confirmed that the agenda of a potential cabinet expansion or a leadership shift did not come up during the six-hour-long discussion.

Background of the Power Struggle

The question of leadership in Karnataka has remained a recurring theme for over a year. Supporters of Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar have consistently maintained that the central leadership promised a rotating Chief Ministership arrangement when the government was formed after the 2023 assembly elections.

Speculation had intensified recently as the ruling government faced local anti-incumbency pressures alongside renewed political activity from the opposition bench. Some internal reports had even indicated a push from within certain sections of the high command, including Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, for a leadership revamp.

Balancing Caste Equations and Party Structure

The central leadership has navigated the situation cautiously to maintain political stability. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, 80, commands a powerful “Ahinda” support base—a coalition comprising minority communities, backward classes, and Dalits. This social alliance was crucial in helping the party navigate the traditional Vokkaliga and Lingayat caste dynamics during the 2023 elections.

Although the rotation issue had previously gained significant momentum when the government completed two years in office, the party high command had chosen to maintain the status quo to avoid any adverse electoral impact in neighboring assembly elections, such as in Tamil Nadu. With those elections concluded, supporters of the 64-year-old Deputy Chief Minister had expressed optimism for a transition. Shivakumar currently holds the dual responsibility of being the Deputy Chief Minister as well as the state Congress chief, signaling his critical organizational value to the party. However, for the time being, the party high command has firmly signaled that the current leadership structure will remain unchanged.

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Congress high command steps in to resolve Karnataka leadership impasse with crucial Delhi meeting

The Congress leadership, including Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, is holding a vital meeting in Delhi with Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah to find a definitive solution to the state’s prolonged leadership impasse.

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The top leadership of the Congress party is scheduled to hold a high-level meeting at its headquarters in the national capital today morning to address the long-standing leadership dispute in Karnataka. Senior leaders, including party president Mallikarjun Kharge and MP Rahul Gandhi, will lead the discussions aimed at resolving the continuous friction between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar.

The ongoing power struggle over the state’s top position has persisted since the party’s electoral victory in 2023. For the current session, only Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has been called to join the discussions in Delhi. When questioned about the agenda by reporters, the Chief Minister stated that he was unaware of the specific subjects to be discussed, noting that political speculation is inevitable.

Background of the internal division

The internal friction intensified significantly in November 2025 when the state government completed its two-and-a-half-year mark in office. Supporters of the Deputy Chief Minister pointed to a purported unacknowledged internal arrangement suggesting a rotational chief ministership split equally across the five-year term. Despite multiple prior interventions by central party leadership to manage the internal friction, a permanent resolution has remained elusive.

While Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar has not been invited to this morning’s initial session, indications suggest that separate individual discussions and a potential joint meeting involving both leaders are planned as part of the broader resolution process. Observers note that several state ministers and legislators have also traveled to the national capital as the party leadership aims to settle the administrative roadmap and finalise leadership plans before the next assembly elections.

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No uniform civil code provisions will be imposed on tribals, clarifies Amit Shah

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has assured tribal communities that the proposed Uniform Civil Code will not interfere with their customs, urging them not to be misled by misinformation.

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Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Sunday declared that the proposed Uniform Civil Code (UCC) will not impact tribal populations in any manner. He called upon the community to stay vigilant against “conspiracies” and misinformation circulating on the subject.

Addressing the Janjati Sanskritik Samagam—a tribal conclave organized by the Janjati Suraksha Manch at the Red Fort grounds to mark the 150th birth anniversary year of Birsa Munda—Shah stated that specific provisions have been implemented in states ruled by the ruling party to exclude tribal communities from the scope of the code.

Clarification on customs and traditions

The Home Minister highlighted that a deliberate narrative has emerged suggesting the proposed legislation would strip tribal societies of their distinct culture, traditions, and customary lifestyles.

He explicitly clarified that the central government has no intention of forcing UCC regulations upon tribal or Vanvasi communities. Shah pointed out that where regional administrations have initiated the code, care has been taken by the leadership to ensure that indigenous populations remain fully outside its jurisdiction. He requested attendees to disseminate this assurance deeply into forest zones and rural villages to erase lingering apprehensions.

Focus on security and community development

Beyond the legislative framework, Shah detailed the progress made toward curbing internal security threats, stating that the nation is steadily advancing toward eradicating Naxalism entirely. He noted that violent disruptions had severely restricted progress in these belts for decades, leading to the loss of thousands of tribal lives. According to the minister, regional stability will now pave the way for accelerated development across remote hills and forests.

The address also covered constitutional rights regarding personal faith. Shah mentioned that the original framework of the Constitution grants every citizen the dignity to practice their traditional beliefs without facing coercion, temptation, or material inducement for religious conversion.

Reflecting on financial allocations, the minister criticized earlier political administrations for keeping tribal welfare funding low. He underscored that the current administration under Prime Minister Narendra Modi significantly elevated the dedicated tribal budget from a previous Rs 28,000 crore to Rs 1.54 lakh crore. Terming the vast gathering a historical movement for cultural preservation, Shah described the societal awakening as a major step toward safeguarding tribal heritage for future generations.

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