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First phase of Gujarat polls will make or mar Cong prospects

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The first phase covers the area which yielded BJP its majority of seats in 2012; it is also the region where the leaders of the Patidar-OBC-Dalit combine ranged against BJP wield greater influence in the state.

The first phase of keenly watched, keenly contested elections to Gujarat Assembly began on Saturday with enthusiastic voter turnout (35.52% till 2 pm) recorded from the start. Polling is being held in 89 of the total 182 constituencies with 977 candidates in the fray.

The BJP faces its most serious challenge in Gujarat in the years from 1995 that it has been in power in the state: apart from 22 years of incumbency, there are the factor of alienated sections of Patidars, OBCs and Dalits ranged against it, the discontent of farmers and the disquiet among the traders and small entrepreneurs over GST and demonetisation which has hurt them badly.

The BJP is primarily banking on the stature and appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to win back the state.

The Congress kept away from talking about Muslims and minorities, focusing more on other aspects. It had the Modi government and BJP on the defensive over Rafale deal, alleging that purchase of the fighter aircraft was overpriced and meant to benefit one industrial house. It also talked about the business deals of BJP president Amit Shah’s son Jay Shah.

While the opposition sought to focus on shortcomings and failures of the BJP, the BJP tried to deflect attention and win back the initiative in setting the agenda for discourse. A high-pitched campaign marked the electioneering that got shriller as the polling day approached – and seemed likely to go on till it comes to an end to days before the second and final phase of election on Dec 14.

The BJP, reputed for its organised, methodical functioning, was so caught up in this that it forgot to come up with a manifesto for the elections. It hurriedly put together and announced a ‘vision document’ – after Patidar leader Hardik Patel’s taunt: that the BJP was so busy making sex CDs (about him) that it forgot to prepare an election manifesto.

In the final days, the BJP managed to make the poll campaign a contest between Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with the latter turning it into a question of his personal honour linking it to Gujarat’s prestige in the final stages. If people had forgotten, he revived their memory, listing all the epithets used for him by different Congress leaders. For Rahul Gandhi and Congress, Modi used names of various Muslim rulers of the past. Whether this clicks with the electorate or not, it is widely acknowledged that Modi’s personal stature and appeal remains intact among the voters of the state.

This translates into election results – gain or loss of seats – being viewed as a reflection on how far the Modi magic worked.

Of the 89 seats that saw polling in the first phase on Saturday, the BJP won 63 in the last state elections held in 2012: it has been stronger in this part of the state. The Congress had won only 22 of the seats here, 1 JD(U), 1 NCP, 2 GPP (Gujarat Parivartan Party) while the remaining went to others.

The areas going to polls are spread over Kutch, Saurashtra and south Gujarat, covering 19 districts of Kutch, Morbi, Jamnagar, Surendranagar, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Rajkot, Botad, Porbandar, Junagadh, Amreli, Gir Somnath, Bhavnagar, Bharuch, Narmada, Surat, Tapi, Navsari, Dang and Valsad.

For the BJP, this phase is crucial since it was this region where its success rate has been highest. Of its total tally of 115 in 2012, 63 came from this part of the state. Of the remaining 93 seats to go to polls on Dec 14, it got 52 – still a majority, but a narrower margin, with Congress winning in 39 constituencies to take its total to 61 seats.

This also the where the actual test of the influence of the three leaders, Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani, from Patidar, OBC and Dalit communities, respectively, will be. This is where they, especially Patels, have greatest presence. Thakor has greater influence in north Gujarat where polling would be held on Dec 14.

In particular, Hardik Patel’s influence would be tested in Saurashstra where Patidars are said to have 35 to 40 per cent of vote share. GST impact, if any, would be seen in Surat. The BJP held 15 of the 16 seats in Surat. The area with dominant presence of diamond merchants had witnessed massive protests against the tax reform.

The Saurashtra region will see some more high profile battles involving cabinet minister Babubhai Bokhiria, Arjun Modhwadia of Congress and former finance and power minister Saurabh Patel.

The most significant contest is for the seat held by Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, Rajkot West. Rupani is pitted against Congress candidate Indraneel Rajyaguru, the outgoing MLA from Rajkot East.

Another interesting battle would be for the Dhoraji seat, where Hardik Patel’s key aide, Lalit Vasoya, has been fielded by the Congress’ ticket. Vasoya will be taking on veteran BJP leader and former Lok Sabha MP Harilal Patel on this Patel community-dominated Assembly constituency in Rajkot district. Dhoraji is the only Assembly constituency on which Congress has fielded a leader from Hardik Patel-led Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS).

Other areas to be watched include Bharuch – the backyard of Ahmad Patel, the Congress leader wielding an influence in the party disproportionate to his popular standing. The Congress was wiped out in the area, failing to win any of its 5 constituencies in 2012.

Valsad, also with five seats, would also need watching – rallies of Modi and BJP president Amit Shah in this part were a dismal flop. The Congress had won two of the seats there in 2012.

Somnath, too falls in the first phase. Rahul Gandhi’s visit to Somnath and the party’s ‘faux pas’, in entering his name in the visitor’s register meant for non-Hindus, was raked up by the BJP and Modi who went on to equate him with various Muslim rulers of the past. The Congress had won two of the three seats there.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Punjab Congress faction games hold up who will lead party as poll approaches

The Congress leadership is expected to finalize the new Punjab Congress chief soon as factions oppose Amarinder Singh Raja Warring continuance as chief.

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The Congress leadership is likely to decide the name of a new Punjab Pradesh Congress Comittee (PPCC) president in light of the growing factional differences emerging within the party state unit.

The decision by party president Mallikarjun Kharge on choosing the head of the state unit is likely to be finalized after he takes note of other senior leaders’ opinions on the matter, as differences over the continuation of Amarinder Singh Raja Warring as PPCC president has led to former Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi pitching his hat in the ring.

The leadership crisis has reflected the diverging interests of opposing factions in the Punjab Congress. Channi has the backing of several party leaders including Bharat Bhushan Ashu, Gurpreet Singh Kangar, Darshan Singh Brar, and Nazar Singh Manshahia, among other supporters of Channi, while another faction is supporting incumbent chief Warring.

The Congress needs to stem the crisis soon since the state is headed for elections next year as the term of the Bhagwant Mann-led Aam Aadmi Party government winds down. Many in the party have said that having a widely accepted state leader can strengthen the organizational structure.

The delay in decision-making has caused speculation with some senior leaders meeting BJP heavyweights in Delhi. Though these leaders have dismissed any rumours of switching sides, the strain among the factions is telling on party unity. But given the way several Rajya Sabha MPs of the Aam Aadmi Party switched to the BJP, nothing can be ruled out as election fever picks up.

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Congress MP Manish Tewari says terror must end before India-Pakistan dialogue resumes

Congress MP Manish Tewari has questioned calls to restart India-Pakistan dialogue, arguing that meaningful talks cannot resume until Pakistan takes verifiable action against terrorism.

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Congress MP says decades of peace initiatives have repeatedly been followed by terror attacks and calls for verifiable action against terrorism before any engagement

Congress MP Manish Tewari has questioned renewed calls to resume dialogue between India and Pakistan, saying any discussion with Islamabad must first address the issue of cross-border terrorism. Responding to an appeal by 117 eminent personalities from both countries seeking the restoration of diplomatic engagement, Tewari asked whether such talks could be meaningful without concrete action against terror infrastructure.

Speaking on Friday, the Congress leader said successive Indian governments had consistently attempted to improve relations with Pakistan, but those efforts were repeatedly undermined by terrorist attacks.

According to Tewari, governments led by P.V. Narasimha Rao, H.D. Deve Gowda, I.K. Gujral, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh and Prime Minister Narendra Modi all pursued dialogue with Pakistan through formal negotiations or backchannel diplomacy. However, he claimed that each attempt was followed by acts of terrorism.

Calls for proof of dismantling terror infrastructure

Tewari said the key issue was whether Pakistan had provided any verifiable assurance that it had dismantled its terror infrastructure.

Referring to former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, he said a public commitment had been made after the Parliament attack to act against terrorism, but the assurance was later withdrawn. He added that similar commitments made during the tenures of former Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi also failed to produce lasting results.

Questioning the appeal for renewed engagement, Tewari said those advocating talks should clarify what specific issues they intended to discuss while the threat of terrorism remained unresolved.

References Pahalgam terror attack and Indus Waters Treaty

The Congress MP also referred to the Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025, saying it further reinforced India’s concerns regarding terrorism.

He noted that India’s position became even more firm following the attack, pointing to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as part of the government’s response.

Commenting on the timing of the letter seeking renewed dialogue, Tewari said India had consistently maintained that terrorism and bilateral talks could not proceed simultaneously. He also reiterated the government’s position that it would not differentiate between terrorists and those responsible for directing such attacks.

Peace remains desirable, but security comes first

While acknowledging that millions of people across South Asia aspire for lasting peace, Tewari argued that meaningful dialogue was not possible as long as terrorism remained a continuing threat.

He said India must first receive credible assurances from Pakistan, beginning with an end to the export of terrorism, before considering any resumption of diplomatic engagement.

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TVK alleges Rs 35 crore MLA bribery bid as Tamil Nadu political row escalates

Allegations of a Rs 35 crore bribery offer to a TVK MLA and an FIR against Senthil Balaji’s brother have intensified political tensions in Tamil Nadu, with the TVK, DMK and AIADMK trading accusations.

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The alleged attempt to destabilise the Vijay-led TVK government has triggered a major political confrontation in Tamil Nadu, with the ruling alliance and the opposition accusing each other of engaging in horse-trading and attempts to influence legislators.

The controversy intensified after Chennai Police arrested three people on Wednesday following a complaint by a TVK MLA, who alleged that he was offered ₹35 crore by representatives of a consultancy firm in exchange for supporting a move against the Assembly Speaker. According to the allegations, one of those arrested is reportedly associated with DMK MLA Senthil Balaji and his brother, Ashok.

An FIR has also been registered against Ashok, the brother of Senthil Balaji, over allegations that he attempted to bribe TVK MLA N. Elaiyaraja.

TVK accuses DMK of targeting its MLAs

TVK alleged that the DMK has been attempting to lure its legislators for several weeks in an effort to destabilise the government.

Tamil Nadu minister and senior TVK leader CTR Nirmal Kumar claimed that several TVK MLAs, along with legislators from alliance partners, had been approached over the past 40 days. He alleged that the party had now been “caught red-handed” after the police action and accused the DMK of trying to purchase the support of a TVK MLA for ₹35 crore.

Nirmal Kumar also alleged that a close associate of Senthil Balaji had threatened a TVK legislator and further claimed that former chief minister MK Stalin and Leader of Opposition Udhayanidhi were attempting to create a political crisis. He rejected allegations that the TVK itself was involved in horse-trading, asserting that the ruling alliance remained secure with the support of its partners.

According to the allegations cited by agencies, the purported plan involved securing the simultaneous resignation of 15 TVK MLAs to bring down the Vijay-led government.

Opposition rejects allegations

The DMK dismissed the accusations, alleging that the Vijay-led government was trying to divert attention from its own shortcomings.

DMK leader TKS Elangovan said the government had failed to fulfil its promises and claimed that the TVK alliance itself was engaged in horse-trading. He questioned the allegation that the DMK would seek to engineer political instability under the present circumstances.

The AIADMK also criticised the ruling party, accusing it of attracting legislators from rival parties while questioning its commitment to public welfare. AIADMK chief Edappadi K. Palaniswami said that political manoeuvring and shifting alliances had overshadowed governance.

Alliance partners support TVK government

The TVK’s alliance partners backed the government during the controversy.

Congress MP Praveen Chakravarty questioned why the DMK was allegedly seeking to bring down the government instead of remaining in the opposition, asking why it was in such a hurry to return to power.

VCK leader SS Balaji also reiterated his party’s support for the TVK government for its full five-year term. While stating that he was not aware of the specific allegations regarding attempts to poach legislators, he said that encouraging MLAs to resign was not a healthy democratic practice and reaffirmed the alliance’s commitment to the government.

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