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China Briefing Diplomats On Doklam: Doval Must Follow Up For India

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China Briefing Diplomats On Doklam: Doval Must Follow Up For India

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By Saeed Naqvi

It reflects on the delicate diplomacy involved that the principal issue in the China-India standoff at Doklam is being mentioned only in muted tones. The problem is the undemarcated boundary between China and Bhutan. This demarcation would require Bhutan-China to settle the matter.

The two doing a pirouette is not a good sight for India, which has a special bond with Bhutan sanctified in a treaty signed in 1949. Clause 2 of the treaty amended in 2007, (on which later) stated that Thimpu would be “guided by the advice of the government of India in its external relations”. How can Thimpu settle its border, independent of the Sino-Indian boundary?

Thimpu needed chaperoning when it took its first baby steps as a sovereign state. But once it came of age and made a formal debut at the UN’s great ball (at India’s initiative) in 1971, it began to feel the urge to dance with other partners, of course, without rupturing the special bond dictated by the 1949 treaty. India would remain more equal than others but others there shall surely be. India says “fine” but has palpitations when it fears that Bhutan may be groping for China’s hand.

At the coronation of the present king’s father Jigme Singye Wangchuk in 1974, Foreign Minister, Dawa Tsering said something that was not honeyed music to New Delhi.

India’s advice in the conduct of foreign affairs was welcome but “not binding” on Bhutan, he said. Indeed, among those invited to the coronation was China which turned up with a delegation, not a pleasing sight for the Indian contingent. A gentle, feather touch has marked Indo-Bhutanese diplomacy in both the capitals. Years 1978-79, when Atal Behari Vajpayee was the External Affairs Minister, were marked by considerable warmth in relations.

In August 1978, diplomatic missions in New Delhi received a circular from the Bhutan mission that henceforth it should be addressed as the Royal Bhutan Embassy. The upgradation of the mission was not without considerable debate in South Block.

Prime Minister Morarji Desai downwards there was an entire hierarchy, principally Foreign Secretary Jagat Mehta, endorsing a more relaxed policy towards Bhutan freeing the Himalayan kingdom from the more restrictive interpretations of the 1949 treaty. But there were hawks too

Desai’s government fell in July 1979 making way for Charan Singh’s five month rule. More damage was done to New Delhi’s relations with Thimpu during this brief period by the new, inexperienced External Affairs Minister, Shyam Nandan Mishra, than at any other period.

He led the Indian delegation to the Havana summit of Non-Aligned Nation where the King of Bhutan took a position on a key issue which was independent to the brief Mishra was carrying.

The cold war was at its peak. Indo-China was still at the centre of conflict. The two blocs were in fierce competition on who should occupy Kampuchea’s seat at the summit? Pol Pot, backed by US and China, or Heng Samrin installed in Phnom Penh after Vietnam ousted Pol Pot. He set up sanctuaries on the border with Thailand.

It seems almost comical to reflect that the world was, in the late 70s, riveted on Phnom Penh, Pol Pot and Heng Samrin. But contemplate the global picture, and the chips fall into place.

In 1972, Nixon’s visit to Beijing, creating a triangular strategic balance disadvantageous to Moscow. In 1978 Communists had come to power in Kabul, paving the way for Soviet invasion. Next year, the Shah fell in Tehran. A pro West Morarji Desai lost power in 1979. But in Pakistan, a pro West Zia ul Haq held onto power.

After what I saw at the battle of Lang Son, it was clear as daylight who won but American media dragged its feet conceding victory to Vietnam in the Sino-Vietnam war of 1979. Vietnam’s ouster of Pol Pot, his genocidal record notwithstanding, was, on the global chessboard, a reversal for both China and the US. Their romance was in its 9th year.

It was in this tense global situation that Mishra, on his first mission as foreign minister, attempted to goad the King towards Heng Samrin (Soviet Union) while his own position was unclear. He must have made for a clumsy diplomat, because the King voted for Pol Pot much to the glee of US, China and Pakistan.

So cross was the King by the indecorous way he had been handled in Havana, that, on his way back to Thimpu, he sought me out for what turned out to be a controversial interview. This was the only interview the King of Bhutan had ever granted to the media. I was then the Special Correspondent of the Indian Express.

He clarified his vote in Havana. If Bhutan had not asked for Pol Pot’s representative to be seated at Havana, it would have been tantamount to endorsing Vietnamese armed intervention in Kampuchea. He then made the allegation, “India took no position at all: can you blame us if we took one and can our stand be described as being in opposition to India?” India’s stand was neither here nor there: let Pol Pot be seated but not participate – a non stand endorsed at an earlier NAM meet.

On the relevance of the 1949 treaty he said: “If you want my candid reply and not a diplomatic one – the treaty can certainly be brought upto date.” The two countries have not had serious differences in the interpretation of Article 2 of the treaty. “But why should we retain a treaty which can lend itself to loose interpretations?”

The King was uncomfortable with the expression “close consultations” defining relations. He preferred “close understanding” – consultations implied advice.

The spirit of what the King said in September, 1979, influenced the language of the treaty when it was revised in 2007. The new words were, “India and Bhutan will cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests. Neither government should allow its territory for activities harmful to its national security.”

What will be the upshot of the Doklam standoff? Well, the king’s explosive interview (on which more later), did have a ripple effect which, in slow measure, resulted in an amended treaty, freeing Bhutan somewhat.

In the given situation, similar advantages will accrue to Bhutan post Doklam. These advantages will not displease China.

After his return from Beijing, the National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval, must brief the diplomatic corps in New Delhi which so far has heard only from the Chinese here and in important capitals. To my knowledge only the American have been briefed by South Block.

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PM Modi speaks to Qatar, France, Jordan, Oman and Malaysia leaders on Middle East tensions

PM Modi held talks with leaders of five nations, stressing dialogue, condemning attacks on energy infrastructure and urging stability in the Middle East.

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PM Narendra Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a series of high-level conversations with leaders from multiple countries, including Emmanuel Macron, as concerns grow over the escalating situation in the Middle East.

During separate telephonic discussions with leaders of Qatar, Jordan, Oman and Malaysia, the prime minister stressed the urgent need for de-escalation through dialogue and diplomacy. He also strongly condemned recent attacks targeting energy infrastructure in the region, warning that such actions could worsen tensions.

In his interaction with Qatar’s Amir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, PM Modi conveyed Eid greetings and reaffirmed India’s solidarity with the Gulf nation. He appreciated the support extended to the Indian community and reiterated the importance of ensuring safe and free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking with King Abdullah II, the prime minister again underlined the need for restoring peace and stability. Both leaders expressed concern over the evolving situation and agreed that attacks on energy infrastructure could trigger avoidable escalation. PM Modi also acknowledged Jordan’s assistance in facilitating the safe return of stranded Indian nationals.

In a separate exchange with French President Emmanuel Macron, the leaders discussed the urgent need to reduce tensions and maintain diplomatic efforts. Both sides agreed to continue close coordination to support peace initiatives in the region.

PM Modi also spoke with Haitham bin Tariq, where the two leaders emphasised prioritising dialogue for restoring stability. The prime minister condemned violations of Oman’s sovereignty and appreciated its role in helping evacuate people, including Indian citizens.

During his conversation with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, PM Modi exchanged festive greetings and discussed the broader regional situation. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to resolving the crisis through peaceful means.

These diplomatic engagements come amid heightened tensions following military actions involving the United States, Israel and Iran. India has consistently advocated for stability in the region, given its strategic and economic interests, particularly in energy security and maritime trade routes.

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Russian oil tanker rerouted to India amid Middle East crisis, to reach Mangaluru on March 21

A Russian oil tanker bound for China has been diverted to India as Middle East tensions disrupt global energy supply chains.

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A Russian oil tanker carrying around 7.7 lakh barrels of crude oil is set to arrive at India’s New Mangalore port on March 21 after changing its original route to China, a senior government official said on Thursday.

The vessel, Aqua Titan, which sails under the Cameroon flag, departed from a Russian port on January 18. It altered its course while in the South China Sea and is now heading towards India, reflecting shifting global oil trade patterns amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Middle East conflict disrupts global supply

The diversion comes against the backdrop of escalating conflict in the Middle East. The ongoing war involving Iran, along with its retaliatory strikes on Gulf nations, has significantly disrupted oil and natural gas exports from the region. These disruptions have also led to temporary production halts in key energy facilities.

Since the conflict began on February 28, at least four Indian-flagged vessels carrying oil and gas cargo have already reached Indian ports safely.

Indian vessels stranded near Strait of Hormuz

According to the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, a large number of Indian vessels remain stuck near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route.

Currently, 22 Indian-flagged cargo ships, along with 611 seafarers, are stranded in the western part of the Persian Gulf. Additionally, two loaded Indian vessels are positioned in the eastern section of the Strait.

Officials confirmed that authorities, including the Directorate General of Shipping, are closely monitoring the situation in coordination with shipowners, recruitment agencies, and Indian embassies. All Indian crew members in the region are reported to be safe, with no incidents recorded in the past 24 hours.

Global shipping crisis deepens

The disruption is not limited to Indian vessels. Around 700 ships from various countries have reportedly been stranded near the Strait of Hormuz for nearly 20 days. This has impacted global oil flows, with nearly 20 percent of crude supplies from the Middle East failing to reach international markets.

India, which imports about 85 percent of its crude oil needs from over 40 countries, is among the nations most affected by the crisis.

Oil prices surge amid attacks on energy infrastructure

Amid rising tensions, global crude prices have surged sharply, with Brent crude crossing $115 per barrel. Iran has threatened further strikes on regional energy installations following attacks linked to Israeli actions.

Recent incidents include missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, drone attacks on a Saudi refinery along the Red Sea, and fires reported at oil installations in Kuwait.

Government steps up monitoring and response

Authorities have stepped up efforts to manage the situation. The Directorate General of Shipping has facilitated the return of over 472 Indian seafarers so far, including 25 repatriated in the last 24 hours.

Despite the global disruption, India’s ports continue to operate without congestion. Officials confirmed that ports have sufficient storage capacity and are maintaining strict monitoring of vessel movement and cargo handling operations.

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Iran strike on Qatar LNG hub raises concerns for India’s energy security

Iran’s missile strike on Qatar’s LNG facility has disrupted global supply chains, posing risks for India’s energy imports and pricing.

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Heightened tensions in the Middle East have begun to ripple across global energy markets after Iran launched a missile strike on Ras Laffan, Qatar’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility. The attack has intensified fears of prolonged supply disruptions and rising fuel costs, with countries like India expected to feel the impact sharply.

The Gulf region has emerged as the focal point of escalating hostilities, with Iran targeting energy infrastructure and US-linked assets following strikes by the United States and Israel. The latest attack on Qatar’s key LNG hub has reportedly forced a complete halt in production at the facility, which is among the largest of its kind globally.

Qatar is a major LNG exporter and ranks alongside the United States, Australia and Russia in global supply. The disruption is not an isolated incident. Earlier in March, missile strikes on Qatari gas fields had already compelled QatarEnergy to suspend operations temporarily. These developments are linked to retaliatory actions following an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field, part of the world’s largest natural gas reserve.

The broader conflict has also affected maritime activity in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that carries nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. With rising threats to shipping, tanker movement has slowed significantly, pushing global oil and gas prices higher.

The situation has further escalated with continued strikes and counterstrikes across the region. Reports indicate heavy casualties in Iran, while missile and drone attacks continue to target strategic assets. The conflict, now in its third week, has effectively turned key shipping lanes into high-risk zones, with hundreds of cargo vessels stranded near major Gulf ports.

Impact on India

India is particularly vulnerable to these disruptions due to its reliance on imported natural gas. Around 50 percent of the country’s gas demand is met through imports, with Qatar accounting for a significant share.

According to energy economist Kirit Parikh, India sources roughly 40 percent of its LNG imports from Qatar, translating to about 20 percent of its total gas consumption. Any prolonged disruption could therefore strain domestic supply.

India’s current daily natural gas consumption stands at about 189 million metric standard cubic meters per day (MMSCMD), with nearly half met through domestic production. However, a portion of imported supply—estimated at 47.4 MMSCMD—has already been affected due to force majeure conditions.

In response, state-run gas companies have started sourcing LNG cargoes from alternative suppliers. However, such arrangements are likely to come at higher costs, adding pressure on industries dependent on gas, particularly the power sector.

Experts suggest that if the crisis persists, India may need to rationalise gas consumption, prioritising essential sectors while cutting usage in others.

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