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Macron over Le Pen

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THE WINNER: French president-elect Emmanuel Macron celebrates on the stage at his victory rally near the Louvre in Paris, Reuters/UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]To the French, a known devil is better than an unknown angel

By Shailaja Paramathma

Congratulations France for walking on the razor’s edge and crossing over intact, your fabled capriciousness saving the day. At a time when nations across the board seem to be giving in to the fear of the other—of Muslims in India, of immigrants in the United States and the European Union, and of the European Union in Britain—the French questioned the fear and arrived at a decision unique to themselves. Their choice in their own words was between “the plague and the cholera” and they decided to go with the “banker instead of the fascist”. So Emmanuel Macron becomes the youngest person to ever become president of any country, raising the ambitions of Generation-X parents across the globe. And Marine Le Pen goes back to a party that has never won the presidential elections in France but has brought it closer this time to the presidential seat than ever before.

Where there is moolah

The French are intellectually snobbish about money. So when they had to choose between pro-globalisation Macron and anti-immigration Le Pen as their next president, it was a war between their disdain for capitalists and their intellect telling them that fascism was wrong. And the more the rest of the world opted for rightism, the more eager they became to distance themselves from the ideology and decisively prove to the world that they were not a part of it.

Post the results of the election on Sunday, they confirmed that they had not fallen for the “poudre de perlimpinpin” (like Macron called Le Pen’s solutions to the economic problems of France), a remedy pretending to be miraculous but is absolutely bogus and ineffective in reality. But this was even as they signed arrogant-sounding petitions before it, saying: “Macron, I will vote for you not because I choose you but because I choose to make Le Pen fail.” This was their way of informing Macron that he had not won over their hearts but had just happened to be at the right place at the right time. To clarify their stand to the rest of the world so that they themselves did not have to go to bed feeling conquered, the petitions also said, “I will celebrate if you (Macron) win on May 7, but know that the very next day I will be part of the opposition.”

How come Le Pen?

While they defiantly insisted that Macron was not their candidate, the fact remains that the guys they claimed to agree with—the conservative François Fillon and the revolutionary Leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon—did not even make it to the finals. Yes, on the surface it seems like the French did not fall for the development card as we did in India and they did not give in to fear like the Americans did but they did allow Le Pen’s Front National to make it to round two yet again in 2017.

The easy claim that the French can make of intellectual and cultural superiority over the Americans has been testified in literature, movies and art century after century. They unhesitatingly regard Americans as a population without culture or morals who are forever after money, control and power. While these assumptions may ring true to some minds, it is also true that as globalisation created new jobs in big French cities, it also created unemployment in rural France which was double the national average, which is a very American phenomenon. And these are the places where the Front National under Marine Le Pen’s new marketing and self-promotion method of campaigning eked out a pretty strong base for itself.

ROUNDLY DEFEATED: Marine Le Pen, French National Front (FN) political party leader and candidate for French 2017 presidential election, casts her ballot in the first round of 2017 French presidential election at a polling station in Henin-Beaumont, Reuters/UNI

ROUNDLY DEFEATED: Marine Le Pen, French National Front (FN) political party leader and candidate for French 2017 presidential election, casts her ballot in the first round of 2017 French presidential election at a polling station in Henin-Beaumont, Reuters/UNI

Yet, notwithstanding her preference to be called Marine, her inheritance of the tainted Le Pen legacy has for the time being diverted her away from the seat of power. However, one must not over-celebrate this victory and one should definitely not negate the presence of fear and hatred in the French society for the other, for unchecked globalisation and loss in job share.

What next?

Right-of-centre Macron’s win over Le Pen on Sunday in France has liberals all over the world finding at best a sense of vindication and at least a respite. Post the Brexit referendum and following the election of Donald Trump in the US, this is no mean feat. They may breathe easy now but they will have to give space and support to Macron when very soon the establishment will find ways to stall him. They will have to continue to see with their discerning eye through media lies and leaked emails. They will have to remain fearless and take into fold the disenfranchised and the old and make them feel integrated in their societies.

Macron’s party, En Marche, might have won the battle but they are yet to win the war. The way ahead is still a big question mark. The legislative elections that will take place in June are crucial. Mid-June French citizens will once again head to the polls for two rounds of voting to elect the country’s 577 members of parliament. En Marche has currently no parliamentary seats or backing. The result of the June elections will be a test of the authority of the new president’s office. If Macron does not win a parliamentary majority, making his reform proposals see the light of day can become a distant dream. If he is constantly opposed and harassed, the quick-tempered Macron may find himself in a position à la Kejriwal and then it will only be a matter of five years before Le Pen finds herself contesting the elections again with a much bigger promise of getting her hands on the keys to the Élysée Palace.

But irrespective of what lies ahead, next time a Hollywood movie wants to depict a Frenchman as the poor cousin from the village with a flock of sheep following him on a rural road, they need to hold up a mirror to their faces and see themselves for what they truly represent, believe in and have chosen as their president. They largely misrepresent Muslims, too, in their movies but that we can come to at another date. For the time being the French is back in fashion.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Israel-Lebanon ceasefire to begin within hours as Trump announces 10-day truce

Israel and Lebanon may begin a 10-day ceasefire within hours after a proposal announced by Donald Trump amid ongoing tensions.

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Donald Trump

A temporary halt in hostilities between Israel and Lebanon is expected to begin within hours after US President Donald Trump announced a proposed 10-day ceasefire between the two sides, amid ongoing tensions in the region.

According to his statement, the ceasefire is likely to take effect around 5 p.m. Eastern Time, although independent confirmation from both sides is still awaited.

The development follows discussions involving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, with mediation efforts led by the United States.

Officials indicated that the proposed truce is aimed at creating a limited window to reduce violence and potentially pave the way for broader diplomatic engagement. The situation along the Israel-Lebanon border has remained tense in recent weeks, with escalation linked to the activities of Hezbollah.

Diplomatic efforts have intensified in recent days, with discussions facilitated by the United States, including the involvement of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, details of the agreement and the extent of coordination between the parties remain unclear.

The situation remains fluid, and the success of the ceasefire will depend on adherence by all sides involved. The conflict has already led to significant humanitarian and geopolitical consequences, including displacement and disruption in affected areas.

While the proposed ceasefire is being seen as an important step toward de-escalation, broader negotiations involving regional stakeholders are expected to be necessary for any lasting resolution.

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US ends oil sanctions waiver for Iran and Russia, impact likely on India’s energy imports

The US decision to end the Iran and Russia oil waiver may impact India’s oil imports, fuel prices and global energy markets.

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US oil tanker

The United States has decided not to extend a temporary sanctions waiver that allowed limited trade in Iranian and Russian oil, marking a shift towards stricter enforcement of economic restrictions.

The waiver, introduced in March 2026, had permitted the sale of oil already loaded on ships to stabilise global supply during heightened geopolitical tensions. However, it is now set to expire around mid-April without renewal.

US officials have indicated that the move is part of a broader strategy to increase pressure on both Iran and Russia amid ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions.

What the waiver did and why it mattered

The short-term waiver allowed millions of barrels of oil—estimated at around 140 million barrels—to enter global markets, helping ease supply shortages and prevent sharp price spikes.

It also enabled countries like India to purchase discounted crude oil from Russia and resume limited imports from Iran after years of restrictions.

Impact on India

India, one of the world’s largest oil importers, is expected to feel the impact of the decision in several ways:

  • Reduced access to discounted oil
    India had been buying cheaper Russian crude and recently resumed Iranian imports under the waiver. Its end may limit these options.
  • Potential rise in fuel costs
    With fewer discounted supplies available, India may need to rely more on costlier sources, which could increase domestic fuel prices.
  • Supply diversification pressure
    India may need to explore alternative suppliers in the Middle East, Africa, or the US to maintain energy security.
  • Geopolitical balancing challenge
    The move adds pressure on India to align with US sanctions while managing its own economic interests.

Global energy market concerns

The end of the waiver comes at a time when global oil markets are already under stress due to conflict in West Asia and disruptions in key routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts warn that tightening sanctions could:

  • Reduce global oil supply
  • Increase price volatility
  • Intensify competition among major buyers like India and China

Bigger picture

The US decision reflects a broader shift from temporary relief measures to stricter enforcement of sanctions, even if it risks tightening global energy markets.

For India, the development highlights a recurring challenge—balancing affordable energy access with geopolitical realities.

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Sanctioned tanker fails to breach US blockade, turns back near Strait of Hormuz

A US-sanctioned tanker failed to cross the Hormuz blockade and turned back, underscoring rising tensions and disruption in global shipping routes.

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A US-sanctioned oil tanker failed to break through a newly imposed American naval blockade and was forced to turn back near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting growing tensions in the region.

The vessel, identified as the Rich Starry, reversed its course after attempting to exit the Gulf, according to shipping data. The development comes just days after the United States enforced restrictions on ships linked to Iranian ports.

The blockade was announced by Donald Trump following the collapse of recent diplomatic talks with Iran. The move aims to restrict maritime traffic associated with Iranian trade.

Officials said that during the first 24 hours of enforcement, no vessel successfully crossed the blockade. Several ships, including the sanctioned tanker, complied with instructions from US forces and turned back toward regional waters.

The tanker is reported to be linked to a Chinese company previously sanctioned for dealing with Iran. It was carrying a cargo of methanol loaded from the United Arab Emirates at the time of the incident.

The situation underscores the rising risks in one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. The Strait of Hormuz typically handles a significant share of global energy shipments, but traffic has sharply declined due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The blockade, which applies specifically to vessels travelling to or from Iranian ports, has added further uncertainty for shipping companies, insurers and global energy markets.

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