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Referendum in Iraq’s Kurdish North Sets Cat Among Pigeons

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masood barzani

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]By: Saeed Naqvi

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

All countries are either opposed to the referendum or, like the United States, opposed to the timing of it. Only Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel stands out in lone splendour, endorsing the referendum. By doing so, he has, of course, let the cat out of the bag. This has added to Iran’s concerns. Tehran says it will seal its Kurdish borders should the referendum take place. The implication is that necessities of daily life, which came from Iran will no longer be available to Iraqi Kurdistan. For a landlocked enclave, this is severe punishment.

It is easy to conclude that the US and Iran are on the same page on the referendum. But this is a wrong impression. For Iran, any suggestion of eventual independence for any of the Kurdish enclaves, is anathema. For the US, the timing of the referendum is inconvenient. It disrupts its script for the region.

New Delhi knows better than anyone else that an independent Iraqi Kurdistan has been US’s pet project ever since its forces entered Iraq, first during operation Desert Storm in February 1992 and finally during the invasion of the country in March-April 2003.

The No Fly Zone imposed on the Kurdish north in 1992 created an autonomous region. This was not without an eye on the future.

It was in 2003-2004 when, President George W. Bush was drooling all over New Delhi, he invited India to take charge of the Kurdish north. Military officials of all ranks, were asked to be ready, to set sail in the largest ships available with the Indian navy. Yes, New Delhi came very close to playing an Imperial role in West Asia as America’s sidekick. It was Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee who saw the US not as a great power but a dangerous one for its adventures in West Asia. He scuttled the deal.

Regional circumstances changed but the original blue print for Iraq’s Kurdish north remained dear to US policy makers. But the timing for the referendum is wrong because, at least on the face of it, the US would like to be seen in the lead, fighting the Islamic State.

There is an even graver concern that the referendum might adversely affect Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s fortunes in the April 2018 General elections. Any reversal for Abadi, a loyal US nominee, will be a gain for Iran. This is a disturbing prospect for Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Trump.

Iranians see the referendum in two ways: should it lead to independence, they will choke Barzani’s enclave by sealing its borders. The Kurdish north constitutes 20 percent of Iraq. If it separates, Shias, who are an overwhelming majority already, will become 85 percent of the population. It will only consolidate the “Shia crescent”.

Iranians are also not afflicted by fear of their Kurds, barely four percent of the total population, tearing away from the main nation because of ethnicity, religion and language. Iranian Kurds, like the rest of Iran are Aryans, a sizable number being Shia. Their language, Pahlavi, is close to modern Persian.

For Turkey, an Iraqi Kurd enclave is a life and death issue. There is oil in Diyarbakir, the principal Kurd city in Turkey; 15 of their power stations are on rivers flowing through the region. But these are not the reasons why Turkish tanks and troops have been amassed on the border with Iraq. The official Kurdish explanation makes sense: the military presence on the border is designed to block a flow of refugees from the Iraqi side should the situation in the province take a violent turn.

Turkey does have a very real fear of refugees because it is already struggling to assimilate over three million refugees from Syria.

The referendum scare is part of the confusion the US has created in the region. Americans entered Iraq with one script but are having to cope with completely unexpected outcomes.

The no-fly-zone made Kurdish-Iraq into a self governing enclave except for Defence and Foreign Affairs which were left to Baghdad. But the fate of important cities like Kirkuk, one of the world’s great oil bearing areas, would be decided later. Article 140 of Iraq’s constitution, written by the Americans, left the fate of cities like Kirkuk to a referendum by “the people of Iraq” not later than 2007.

Obviously Americans imagined they would control Iraq to their advantage by sheer brute power. But this is not the way events turned out. Eventually, in December 2011, the last US solider left. President Obama failed to extract from Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki an honourable status-of-forces agreement. That is why it became unstated US policy to have Maliki replaced by a more “pliable” candidate – Abadi, for example.

When New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman asked Obama in the course of an interview in 2015: why did the President not order air-strikes against the Islamic State as soon as it reared its head? Obama’s response was startling: air strikes against IS at a stage when it was advancing towards Baghdad, would have relieved pressure on Maliki. In other words, the IS was an asset for destabilizing Maliki.

Meanwhile, there is total chaos in the north’s (Erbil) financial dealings with Baghdad. Barzani thought of getting out of this chaos by announcing a referendum. In his framework the timing seemed auspicious because the Iraq army would be less energetic is retaliating since it is tired from the recent wars in the north with the IS[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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ChatGPT outage affects thousands of users globally, OpenAI reacts

OpenAI swiftly acknowledged the outage, publishing updates on their dedicated status page. This transparency, while offering little in the way of immediate solutions, served to reassure users that the company was actively addressing the situation.

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On January 23, OpenAI’s popular AI chatbot, ChatGPT, suffered a significant global outage, leaving millions of users unable to access the service. The disruption affected multiple access points, including the web interface, the mobile application, and even integrations on social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter). This widespread failure quickly drew significant attention, with reports flooding in from users worldwide.

The outage tracking website, Downdetector, registered a surge in user reports, exceeding a thousand complaints within a short period. This volume underscored the scale of the disruption and the significant impact on ChatGPT’s user base.

The majority of these reports indicated a complete inability to use the chatbot, highlighting the severity of the problem. A smaller percentage of users reported encountering difficulties with the website or API, suggesting a less comprehensive but still noticeable impact.

OpenAI swiftly acknowledged the outage, publishing updates on their dedicated status page. This transparency, while offering little in the way of immediate solutions, served to reassure users that the company was actively addressing the situation.

The official statements consistently described the problem as “degraded performance” and “elevated error rates” within the API, hinting at underlying technical issues that required investigation. However, specific details regarding the root cause remained undisclosed, pending a more thorough examination.

According to reports, the outage commenced around 5 PM IST and persisted for several hours. The lack of a definitive timeline and the ongoing nature of the disruption underlined the complexity of the problem and the challenges faced by OpenAI’s engineering teams in resolving the issue.

As of the latest updates, the exact cause of the outage remains under investigation by OpenAI. The company is actively working to restore full functionality and provide a more comprehensive explanation once the underlying problem has been identified and rectified.

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Prince Harry, Rupert Murdoch’s UK group reach settlement in surveillance case

The relentless media attention, he has claimed, also contributed to the intense pressure that led him and his wife, Meghan Markle, to step back from royal duties and relocate to the United States in 2020.

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Prince Harry has reached a settlement with Rupert Murdoch’s News Group Newspapers (NGN), bringing an abrupt end to a high-profile lawsuit alleging widespread phone hacking and unlawful surveillance.

The settlement, announced just as the trial was about to commence, includes substantial financial compensation for the Duke of Sussex and a formal, unequivocal apology from NGN. This marks a significant victory for Harry, who had accused the media giant of years of intrusive and illegal activities targeting his private life.

The apology, issued directly to Harry’s legal team, explicitly acknowledged the serious breach of privacy inflicted by both The Sun and the defunct News of the World. It detailed unlawful actions perpetrated between 1996 and 2011, including phone hacking, surveillance, and the use of private investigators to obtain sensitive information.

The statement specifically addressed the intrusive activities carried out by private investigators employed by The Sun, emphasizing the severity of the intrusion into Harry’s private life during his formative years. The apology extended to the distress caused to his late mother, Princess Diana, highlighting the impact of the media’s actions on the young prince.

This settlement represents one of three lawsuits filed by Harry against British media outlets, all stemming from accusations of privacy violations. He has consistently blamed the media for the relentless pursuit of his mother, Princess Diana, ultimately leading to her tragic death in a car crash in Paris while being chased by paparazzi.

The relentless media attention, he has claimed, also contributed to the intense pressure that led him and his wife, Meghan Markle, to step back from royal duties and relocate to the United States in 2020.

The case underscores the wider issue of phone hacking and media intrusion, exemplified by the notorious scandal that forced the closure of News of the World in 2011. The hacking of murdered schoolgirl Milly Dowler’s phone, during the police investigation into her disappearance, remains a particularly egregious example of the unethical practices employed by some sections of the British press.

Harry’s legal battle has brought renewed focus to this issue and the need for greater accountability within the media industry. The settlement, while ending this particular legal chapter, leaves a lasting legacy concerning media responsibility and the rights of public figures to privacy.

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China reacts to Donald Trump’s 10% tariff remarks, says it would protect its national interest

While acknowledging a willingness to maintain open communication channels and collaborative efforts with the U.S., China firmly rejected the notion of a trade war, emphasizing that such conflicts ultimately yield no winners.

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China has issued a firm response to US President Donald Trump’s renewed threat to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, beginning February 1. The statement, released by the Chinese foreign ministry, underscores Beijing’s unwavering commitment to safeguarding its national interests amidst escalating trade tensions with the United States.

While acknowledging a willingness to maintain open communication channels and collaborative efforts with the U.S., China firmly rejected the notion of a trade war, emphasizing that such conflicts ultimately yield no winners.

The statement directly addresses Trump’s justification for the proposed tariffs, citing the flow of fentanyl from China through Mexico and Canada into the United States. This latest escalation marks a significant development in the long-standing trade dispute between the two economic giants.

The proposed tariffs, scheduled for implementation on February 1st, echo a similar threat made by Trump earlier, targeting Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs over concerns about illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking.

This consistent pattern of utilizing tariffs as a tool to address broader geopolitical concerns highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of the relationship between the United States and its major trading partners.

China’s economy, heavily reliant on exports to sustain its economic growth, faces significant vulnerability to such protectionist measures. Despite ongoing efforts to diversify its economy and boost domestic consumption, exports remain a crucial pillar of China’s economic engine. The potential impact of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods entering the U.S. market could trigger substantial ripple effects throughout the global economy.

The current trade tensions represent a continuation of a protracted struggle dating back to the Trump administration’s first term, marked by the imposition of substantial tariffs on Chinese imports over alleged unfair trade practices.

These actions were further reinforced by the subsequent Biden administration, which implemented sweeping measures aimed at restricting Chinese access to critical high-tech components.

Trump’s recent pronouncements signal a potential further escalation of these long-standing trade disputes. China’s response clearly indicates its readiness to defend its economic interests and navigate the complex landscape of international trade relations.

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