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Referendum in Iraq’s Kurdish North Sets Cat Among Pigeons

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masood barzani

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]By: Saeed Naqvi

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

All countries are either opposed to the referendum or, like the United States, opposed to the timing of it. Only Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel stands out in lone splendour, endorsing the referendum. By doing so, he has, of course, let the cat out of the bag. This has added to Iran’s concerns. Tehran says it will seal its Kurdish borders should the referendum take place. The implication is that necessities of daily life, which came from Iran will no longer be available to Iraqi Kurdistan. For a landlocked enclave, this is severe punishment.

It is easy to conclude that the US and Iran are on the same page on the referendum. But this is a wrong impression. For Iran, any suggestion of eventual independence for any of the Kurdish enclaves, is anathema. For the US, the timing of the referendum is inconvenient. It disrupts its script for the region.

New Delhi knows better than anyone else that an independent Iraqi Kurdistan has been US’s pet project ever since its forces entered Iraq, first during operation Desert Storm in February 1992 and finally during the invasion of the country in March-April 2003.

The No Fly Zone imposed on the Kurdish north in 1992 created an autonomous region. This was not without an eye on the future.

It was in 2003-2004 when, President George W. Bush was drooling all over New Delhi, he invited India to take charge of the Kurdish north. Military officials of all ranks, were asked to be ready, to set sail in the largest ships available with the Indian navy. Yes, New Delhi came very close to playing an Imperial role in West Asia as America’s sidekick. It was Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee who saw the US not as a great power but a dangerous one for its adventures in West Asia. He scuttled the deal.

Regional circumstances changed but the original blue print for Iraq’s Kurdish north remained dear to US policy makers. But the timing for the referendum is wrong because, at least on the face of it, the US would like to be seen in the lead, fighting the Islamic State.

There is an even graver concern that the referendum might adversely affect Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s fortunes in the April 2018 General elections. Any reversal for Abadi, a loyal US nominee, will be a gain for Iran. This is a disturbing prospect for Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Trump.

Iranians see the referendum in two ways: should it lead to independence, they will choke Barzani’s enclave by sealing its borders. The Kurdish north constitutes 20 percent of Iraq. If it separates, Shias, who are an overwhelming majority already, will become 85 percent of the population. It will only consolidate the “Shia crescent”.

Iranians are also not afflicted by fear of their Kurds, barely four percent of the total population, tearing away from the main nation because of ethnicity, religion and language. Iranian Kurds, like the rest of Iran are Aryans, a sizable number being Shia. Their language, Pahlavi, is close to modern Persian.

For Turkey, an Iraqi Kurd enclave is a life and death issue. There is oil in Diyarbakir, the principal Kurd city in Turkey; 15 of their power stations are on rivers flowing through the region. But these are not the reasons why Turkish tanks and troops have been amassed on the border with Iraq. The official Kurdish explanation makes sense: the military presence on the border is designed to block a flow of refugees from the Iraqi side should the situation in the province take a violent turn.

Turkey does have a very real fear of refugees because it is already struggling to assimilate over three million refugees from Syria.

The referendum scare is part of the confusion the US has created in the region. Americans entered Iraq with one script but are having to cope with completely unexpected outcomes.

The no-fly-zone made Kurdish-Iraq into a self governing enclave except for Defence and Foreign Affairs which were left to Baghdad. But the fate of important cities like Kirkuk, one of the world’s great oil bearing areas, would be decided later. Article 140 of Iraq’s constitution, written by the Americans, left the fate of cities like Kirkuk to a referendum by “the people of Iraq” not later than 2007.

Obviously Americans imagined they would control Iraq to their advantage by sheer brute power. But this is not the way events turned out. Eventually, in December 2011, the last US solider left. President Obama failed to extract from Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki an honourable status-of-forces agreement. That is why it became unstated US policy to have Maliki replaced by a more “pliable” candidate – Abadi, for example.

When New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman asked Obama in the course of an interview in 2015: why did the President not order air-strikes against the Islamic State as soon as it reared its head? Obama’s response was startling: air strikes against IS at a stage when it was advancing towards Baghdad, would have relieved pressure on Maliki. In other words, the IS was an asset for destabilizing Maliki.

Meanwhile, there is total chaos in the north’s (Erbil) financial dealings with Baghdad. Barzani thought of getting out of this chaos by announcing a referendum. In his framework the timing seemed auspicious because the Iraq army would be less energetic is retaliating since it is tired from the recent wars in the north with the IS[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Mark Carney’s win sparks hope for India-Canada relations reset

Mark Carney’s rise as Canada’s Prime Minister brings a renewed focus on repairing ties with India, as both countries seek cooperation in trade, education, and diplomacy.

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Mark Carney’s ascension to the role of Canada’s Prime Minister has brought renewed optimism for a diplomatic thaw between New Delhi and Ottawa, a relationship that faced serious setbacks under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Carney, a former central banker and political novice, made it clear during his campaign that rebuilding bilateral ties with India would be among his foreign policy priorities.

Carney signals intent to revive ties

In his pre-election statements, Carney emphasised Canada’s need to diversify trade partnerships with nations that share democratic values—explicitly naming India. He said, “There are opportunities to rebuild the relationship with India. If I am Prime Minister, I look forward to the opportunity to build that.”

This approach marks a significant departure from the Trudeau administration’s strained relations with India, especially following the high-profile controversy in 2023 involving the killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The diplomatic crisis escalated with the expulsion of six Indian diplomats and reciprocal steps from India, effectively freezing high-level exchanges and trade talks.

The road to reconciliation

Under Trudeau, India frequently accused Canada of harbouring extremist elements within its Sikh diaspora. The Indian government viewed this as a threat to its sovereignty, particularly amid rising incidents of pro-Khalistan demonstrations abroad.

Mark Carney, however, has taken a more pragmatic view, underlining the importance of restoring diplomatic balance and mutual respect. His vision of Canadian sovereignty also extends to redefining international alliances, with a push toward reducing dependency on its largest neighbour—the United States—and strengthening partnerships like the one with India.

Economic and educational prospects

The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the two nations, stalled due to the diplomatic fallout, may see a revival under Carney’s leadership. In 2023, services trade between India and Canada was valued at CAD 13.49 billion. Both countries had been exploring collaboration in emerging sectors like AI, green energy, and education.

India continues to be one of the largest contributors to Canada’s immigrant population, with nearly 2.8 million people of Indian origin living in the country. Carney is likely to continue the liberal immigration policies, particularly benefiting Indian students and professionals. Over 427,000 Indian students currently study in Canada, playing a crucial role in its economy and labour force.

A cautious but hopeful turn

Carney’s victory offers both countries a diplomatic opportunity to reset a troubled chapter. With mutual interests in economic growth, technological advancement, and geopolitical balance, the groundwork is being laid for a more collaborative future.

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Several killed after car drives into street festival in Canada’s Vancouver

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A horrific incident unfolded at the Lapu Lapu ’25 Block Party in Vancouver, Canada, on Saturday, April 26, when a black SUV plowed into a crowd, leaving multiple people dead and several others injured, according to the Vancouver Police Department (VPD). The attack occurred just after 8 p.m. local time at the intersection of East 41st Avenue and Fraser Street, where hundreds had gathered to celebrate Filipino culture and honor Datu Lapu-Lapu, the Philippines’ first national hero, who famously defeated Spanish explorer Ferdinand Magellan in the 1521 Battle of Mactan.

The VPD confirmed the driver, a 30-year-old Vancouver man, was taken into custody at the scene, though the exact number of casualties remains undisclosed as emergency services continue to respond. “A number of people have been killed and multiple others are injured,” the VPD stated on X, adding, “We will provide more information as the investigation unfolds.” Social media footage captured the chaotic aftermath, showing a black SUV with a crumpled hood and deployed airbags, surrounded by motionless victims and frantic bystanders. Some videos depicted first responders and civilians tending to the injured, while others showed bloodied individuals lying on the street, underscoring the scale of the tragedy.

Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim expressed profound grief, calling the incident “horrific.” “We are shocked and saddened by what happened at the Lapu Lapu Day event. Police have confirmed multiple fatalities and injuries, and our thoughts are with Vancouver’s Filipino community during this devastating time,” Sim said in a statement. New Democratic Party MP Don Davies, describing the event as a “horrendous attack,” took to X to offer prayers for the victims and their families, reflecting the community’s anguish.

The Lapu Lapu Day Block Party, in its second year, is a vibrant celebration of Filipino heritage, recognized by British Columbia since 2023 as a day to honor Lapu-Lapu’s legacy of resistance against colonial oppression. The festival, featuring food trucks, performers, and cultural displays, drew a large crowd to Vancouver’s Sunset neighborhood, making the sudden violence all the more shocking.

As the investigation continues, authorities have not disclosed a motive or confirmed whether the act was intentional. The VPD’s major crime unit is leading the probe, and police are urging witnesses to come forward with information. The incident has cast a pall over Vancouver, prompting an outpouring of condolences from leaders like Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and British Columbia Premier David Eby, who vowed support for the affected community. For now, the Filipino community and the city at large mourn, grappling with the senseless loss at what was meant to be a joyous celebration.

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At least 115 injured after explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port

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A massive explosion rocked the Rajaei port near Bandar Abbas in southern Iran on Saturday, April 26, injuring 406 people, according to the state-run IRNA news agency. The agency had earlier reported 281 injuries, citing Mojtaba Khaledi, spokesperson for Iran’s National Emergency Organization, before the toll surged as more victims were identified.

The blast occurred at the Rajaei port, a critical hub for container shipments handling approximately 80 million tons of goods annually. Videos circulating on social media captured thick black smoke rising from the site, while others showed shattered windows in buildings several kilometers away, underscoring the explosion’s intensity.

Authorities have yet to disclose the cause of the blast. While Iran frequently experiences industrial accidents, particularly at its aging oil facilities strained by international sanctions, state television explicitly ruled out any involvement of energy infrastructure in this incident. Mehrdad Hasanzadeh, a provincial disaster management official, told state TV that first responders were working to access the affected area, while efforts were underway to evacuate the site. He noted that the explosion originated from containers at the port but provided no further details. State TV also reported a building collapse triggered by the blast, though specifics remain scarce.

Located 1,050 kilometers southeast of Tehran on the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil trade—the Rajaei port’s strategic importance amplifies concerns about the incident. The explosion coincided with ongoing diplomatic talks in Oman between Iran and the United States, marking their third round of negotiations over Tehran’s accelerating nuclear program, adding a layer of complexity to the unfolding situation.

As rescue operations continue, the rising injury toll and lack of clarity about the blast’s cause have heightened anxiety in Iran, with authorities under pressure to provide answers and ensure the safety of those affected. The incident underscores the challenges faced by Iran’s critical infrastructure and the broader implications for regional stability amid delicate international discussions.

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