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Referendum in Iraq’s Kurdish North Sets Cat Among Pigeons

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masood barzani

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]By: Saeed Naqvi

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

All countries are either opposed to the referendum or, like the United States, opposed to the timing of it. Only Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel stands out in lone splendour, endorsing the referendum. By doing so, he has, of course, let the cat out of the bag. This has added to Iran’s concerns. Tehran says it will seal its Kurdish borders should the referendum take place. The implication is that necessities of daily life, which came from Iran will no longer be available to Iraqi Kurdistan. For a landlocked enclave, this is severe punishment.

It is easy to conclude that the US and Iran are on the same page on the referendum. But this is a wrong impression. For Iran, any suggestion of eventual independence for any of the Kurdish enclaves, is anathema. For the US, the timing of the referendum is inconvenient. It disrupts its script for the region.

New Delhi knows better than anyone else that an independent Iraqi Kurdistan has been US’s pet project ever since its forces entered Iraq, first during operation Desert Storm in February 1992 and finally during the invasion of the country in March-April 2003.

The No Fly Zone imposed on the Kurdish north in 1992 created an autonomous region. This was not without an eye on the future.

It was in 2003-2004 when, President George W. Bush was drooling all over New Delhi, he invited India to take charge of the Kurdish north. Military officials of all ranks, were asked to be ready, to set sail in the largest ships available with the Indian navy. Yes, New Delhi came very close to playing an Imperial role in West Asia as America’s sidekick. It was Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee who saw the US not as a great power but a dangerous one for its adventures in West Asia. He scuttled the deal.

Regional circumstances changed but the original blue print for Iraq’s Kurdish north remained dear to US policy makers. But the timing for the referendum is wrong because, at least on the face of it, the US would like to be seen in the lead, fighting the Islamic State.

There is an even graver concern that the referendum might adversely affect Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s fortunes in the April 2018 General elections. Any reversal for Abadi, a loyal US nominee, will be a gain for Iran. This is a disturbing prospect for Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Trump.

Iranians see the referendum in two ways: should it lead to independence, they will choke Barzani’s enclave by sealing its borders. The Kurdish north constitutes 20 percent of Iraq. If it separates, Shias, who are an overwhelming majority already, will become 85 percent of the population. It will only consolidate the “Shia crescent”.

Iranians are also not afflicted by fear of their Kurds, barely four percent of the total population, tearing away from the main nation because of ethnicity, religion and language. Iranian Kurds, like the rest of Iran are Aryans, a sizable number being Shia. Their language, Pahlavi, is close to modern Persian.

For Turkey, an Iraqi Kurd enclave is a life and death issue. There is oil in Diyarbakir, the principal Kurd city in Turkey; 15 of their power stations are on rivers flowing through the region. But these are not the reasons why Turkish tanks and troops have been amassed on the border with Iraq. The official Kurdish explanation makes sense: the military presence on the border is designed to block a flow of refugees from the Iraqi side should the situation in the province take a violent turn.

Turkey does have a very real fear of refugees because it is already struggling to assimilate over three million refugees from Syria.

The referendum scare is part of the confusion the US has created in the region. Americans entered Iraq with one script but are having to cope with completely unexpected outcomes.

The no-fly-zone made Kurdish-Iraq into a self governing enclave except for Defence and Foreign Affairs which were left to Baghdad. But the fate of important cities like Kirkuk, one of the world’s great oil bearing areas, would be decided later. Article 140 of Iraq’s constitution, written by the Americans, left the fate of cities like Kirkuk to a referendum by “the people of Iraq” not later than 2007.

Obviously Americans imagined they would control Iraq to their advantage by sheer brute power. But this is not the way events turned out. Eventually, in December 2011, the last US solider left. President Obama failed to extract from Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki an honourable status-of-forces agreement. That is why it became unstated US policy to have Maliki replaced by a more “pliable” candidate – Abadi, for example.

When New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman asked Obama in the course of an interview in 2015: why did the President not order air-strikes against the Islamic State as soon as it reared its head? Obama’s response was startling: air strikes against IS at a stage when it was advancing towards Baghdad, would have relieved pressure on Maliki. In other words, the IS was an asset for destabilizing Maliki.

Meanwhile, there is total chaos in the north’s (Erbil) financial dealings with Baghdad. Barzani thought of getting out of this chaos by announcing a referendum. In his framework the timing seemed auspicious because the Iraq army would be less energetic is retaliating since it is tired from the recent wars in the north with the IS[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Hindu man lynched and set on fire in Bangladesh during anti-India protests

A Hindu man was lynched and set on fire in Bangladesh’s Mymensingh district amid rising anti-India protests after the death of a radical student leader.

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Hindu man set to fire in Bangladesh

A disturbing incident of mob violence against a minority community has been reported from Bangladesh, where a Hindu man was lynched and his body set on fire amid escalating anti-India protests following the death of a radical student leader.

Mob lynching reported from Mymensingh district

A 30-year-old Hindu man, Dipu Chandra Das, was lynched by a mob in Bhaluka Upazila of Mymensingh district after allegations surfaced that he had insulted Islam. According to media reports, the incident took place on Thursday night at an industrial area where Das was employed.

Das was accused of making derogatory remarks about Islam and Prophet Muhammad during an event organised at his workplace to mark World Arabic Language Day. The allegations spread rapidly within the factory premises and nearby areas, leading to heightened tension.

Eyewitness accounts cited in media reports said Das was assaulted by an angry crowd and died on the spot. After his death, the mob allegedly tied his body to a tree, beat it while raising slogans, and later set it on fire.

Body burnt at multiple locations, traffic disrupted

The violence did not stop there. Reports suggest the mob later moved Das’s body to a nearby bus stand area and again set it ablaze. Subsequently, the body was taken to the Dhaka–Mymensingh highway, where it was burned once more, leading to panic among locals and a temporary disruption of traffic on the busy stretch.

Confirming the incident, the local administration said a person was killed following allegations of insulting the Prophet. Officials added that the body has been taken into police custody and the situation is being monitored.

Interim government condemns violence

The lynching took place against the backdrop of widespread protests across Bangladesh following the death of Sharif Osman Hadi, a prominent leader linked to the July Uprising. The Muhammad Yunus-led interim government strongly condemned the killing, stating that there is no place for such violence in the country.

In an official statement, the government appealed to citizens to reject hatred and violence, stressing that those responsible for the crime would not be spared.

Anti-India sentiment intensifies after Hadi’s death

Tensions have been high in Bangladesh since Hadi’s death, with protests, vandalism and arson reported in several cities. Demonstrators targeted prominent media offices and symbolic locations linked to the country’s political history.

Hadi was known for his sharp criticism of India and the former prime minister, whose government was ousted during last year’s uprising. Groups formed after the political upheaval have been actively mobilising street protests and campaigns that fuel anti-India sentiment, particularly after the former premier went into exile in India.

The lynching of Dipu Chandra Das has further raised concerns over the safety of minority communities amid the ongoing unrest in the country.

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Bangladesh rocked by violent protests after student leader Sharif Osman Hadi’s death, anti-India slogans raised

Bangladesh has witnessed widespread violence and protests following the death of student leader Sharif Osman Hadi, with arson, anti-India slogans and a nationwide security clampdown.

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Bangladesh

Violent protests erupted across Bangladesh after the death of student leader and political figure Sharif Osman Hadi, triggering fresh instability in the country and a sharp rise in anti-India sentiment. The situation turned volatile in Dhaka and several other cities as thousands of demonstrators poured onto the streets demanding swift action against those responsible for his killing.

Hadi, 32, was shot in the head by masked assailants while launching his election campaign in Dhaka last Friday. He was later airlifted to Singapore for treatment, where he succumbed to his injuries. Known for his polarising views and strong anti-India rhetoric, Hadi had emerged as a prominent face during the 2024 student uprising that led to the ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina.

Fires, arson and tense streets in Dhaka

Soon after news of Hadi’s death broke, protests intensified in the Bangladeshi capital. Several buildings, including those housing leading media organisations, were set on fire, with authorities confirming that staff members were trapped inside during the blaze. Fire services later said the situation was brought under control, while security forces were deployed in large numbers to prevent further violence.

Demonstrators were seen chanting slogans invoking Hadi’s name, vowing to continue protests until those behind the attack were arrested. Multiple areas in Dhaka remained tense late into the night as police and paramilitary units attempted to restore order.

Protests spread, Indian mission targeted in Chittagong

Violence was not limited to the capital. In the port city of Chittagong, protesters gathered outside the Indian Assistant High Commission, raising anti-India slogans amid heightened anger on the streets. Similar unrest was reported from other parts of the country, signalling the widening scale of the crisis.

In Rajshahi, demonstrators torched Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s residence and an Awami League office, causing extensive damage. Authorities have not yet released a detailed assessment of losses, but security has been tightened across sensitive locations.

Anti-India sentiment deepens diplomatic strain

The latest unrest comes amid deteriorating ties between India and Bangladesh following Sheikh Hasina’s flight to Delhi. Earlier in the week, protesters under the banner of “July Oikya” marched towards the Indian High Commission in Dhaka, demanding Hasina’s return and raising hostile slogans against India.

India has formally conveyed its concerns to Dhaka over threats to its diplomatic missions and inflammatory statements by Bangladeshi political figures. New Delhi has rejected allegations linking India to the attack on Hadi, calling such claims false and misleading.

Yunus calls for calm, state mourning announced

In a televised address, interim chief Muhammad Yunus described Hadi’s death as an “irreparable loss” to Bangladesh’s political and democratic space. He urged citizens to exercise restraint, warning that continued violence could derail the country’s path towards a credible election.

The interim administration has announced a day of state mourning in Hadi’s honour, with national flags to fly at half-mast and special prayers planned nationwide. Bangladesh has been under an interim government led by Yunus since August 2024, with national elections scheduled for February 12.

India issues advisory for its nationals

Amid the unrest, the Indian High Commission in Dhaka issued an advisory asking Indian nationals in Bangladesh to avoid non-essential travel and limit movement outside their residences. Emergency contact details of Indian missions have been shared for assistance.

Manhunt launched for attackers

Bangladesh police have launched a manhunt for those behind Hadi’s killing, releasing photographs of two suspects and announcing a reward of five million taka for information leading to their arrest. Yunus has described the attack as a premeditated attempt by a powerful network to sabotage the electoral process.

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India closes two more visa centres in Bangladesh amid worsening security concerns

India has temporarily closed visa application centres in Rajshahi and Khulna, citing security concerns following protests near Indian establishments in Bangladesh.

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India closes two more visa centres in Bangladesh amid worsening security concerns

India has shut two additional Indian Visa Application Centres (IVACs) in Bangladesh — in Rajshahi and Khulna — citing the prevailing security situation in the country. The move comes a day after protests were held near the Indian High Commission in Dhaka by radical groups, raising concerns over safety around Indian establishments.

An official notification issued on the IVAC website said the centres in Rajshahi and Khulna were closed on December 18 due to security reasons. Applicants who had appointments scheduled for the day have been assured fresh slots at a later date.

The decision follows the temporary shutdown of the visa application centre in Dhaka earlier, even as New Delhi flagged a rise in open hostility towards India, particularly targeting the northeastern region, under the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus.

Bangladesh rejects India’s security assessment

Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Advisor Touhid Hossain dismissed India’s concerns and denied any deterioration in law and order. He distanced the interim administration from recent inflammatory remarks made by National Citizen Party (NCP) leader Hasnat Abdullah, who had publicly threatened to cut off India’s “seven sisters” and also issued comments against the Indian High Commissioner.

Hossain said the individual was not part of the government and termed his statements irrelevant. He also claimed that security arrangements were in place and that the shutdown of the Dhaka visa centre coincided with a local programme, which raised security-related questions.

Political backdrop and India’s response

The NCP, which emerged from student-led protests that led to the fall of the previous Awami League government, has extended support to the Yunus-led interim setup. Though the party has limited political presence, radical elements associated with it have organised anti-India demonstrations in Dhaka.

India, in an earlier statement, urged the interim government to ensure internal law and order and hold peaceful elections so that Bangladesh can return to an elected administration. However, the interim government appeared dismissive of this advice, with Hossain stating that India need not advise Dhaka on conducting elections.

Observers in Bangladesh have pointed out that delays in elections could benefit the unelected interim government, while radical groups may attempt to create disruptions by projecting India as a hostile actor. New Delhi has so far maintained a measured stance, despite remarks that directly question India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, particularly in the northeastern region.

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