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Referendum in Iraq’s Kurdish North Sets Cat Among Pigeons

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]By: Saeed Naqvi

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

All countries are either opposed to the referendum or, like the United States, opposed to the timing of it. Only Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel stands out in lone splendour, endorsing the referendum. By doing so, he has, of course, let the cat out of the bag. This has added to Iran’s concerns. Tehran says it will seal its Kurdish borders should the referendum take place. The implication is that necessities of daily life, which came from Iran will no longer be available to Iraqi Kurdistan. For a landlocked enclave, this is severe punishment.

It is easy to conclude that the US and Iran are on the same page on the referendum. But this is a wrong impression. For Iran, any suggestion of eventual independence for any of the Kurdish enclaves, is anathema. For the US, the timing of the referendum is inconvenient. It disrupts its script for the region.

New Delhi knows better than anyone else that an independent Iraqi Kurdistan has been US’s pet project ever since its forces entered Iraq, first during operation Desert Storm in February 1992 and finally during the invasion of the country in March-April 2003.

The No Fly Zone imposed on the Kurdish north in 1992 created an autonomous region. This was not without an eye on the future.

It was in 2003-2004 when, President George W. Bush was drooling all over New Delhi, he invited India to take charge of the Kurdish north. Military officials of all ranks, were asked to be ready, to set sail in the largest ships available with the Indian navy. Yes, New Delhi came very close to playing an Imperial role in West Asia as America’s sidekick. It was Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee who saw the US not as a great power but a dangerous one for its adventures in West Asia. He scuttled the deal.

Regional circumstances changed but the original blue print for Iraq’s Kurdish north remained dear to US policy makers. But the timing for the referendum is wrong because, at least on the face of it, the US would like to be seen in the lead, fighting the Islamic State.

There is an even graver concern that the referendum might adversely affect Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s fortunes in the April 2018 General elections. Any reversal for Abadi, a loyal US nominee, will be a gain for Iran. This is a disturbing prospect for Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Trump.

Iranians see the referendum in two ways: should it lead to independence, they will choke Barzani’s enclave by sealing its borders. The Kurdish north constitutes 20 percent of Iraq. If it separates, Shias, who are an overwhelming majority already, will become 85 percent of the population. It will only consolidate the “Shia crescent”.

Iranians are also not afflicted by fear of their Kurds, barely four percent of the total population, tearing away from the main nation because of ethnicity, religion and language. Iranian Kurds, like the rest of Iran are Aryans, a sizable number being Shia. Their language, Pahlavi, is close to modern Persian.

For Turkey, an Iraqi Kurd enclave is a life and death issue. There is oil in Diyarbakir, the principal Kurd city in Turkey; 15 of their power stations are on rivers flowing through the region. But these are not the reasons why Turkish tanks and troops have been amassed on the border with Iraq. The official Kurdish explanation makes sense: the military presence on the border is designed to block a flow of refugees from the Iraqi side should the situation in the province take a violent turn.

Turkey does have a very real fear of refugees because it is already struggling to assimilate over three million refugees from Syria.

The referendum scare is part of the confusion the US has created in the region. Americans entered Iraq with one script but are having to cope with completely unexpected outcomes.

The no-fly-zone made Kurdish-Iraq into a self governing enclave except for Defence and Foreign Affairs which were left to Baghdad. But the fate of important cities like Kirkuk, one of the world’s great oil bearing areas, would be decided later. Article 140 of Iraq’s constitution, written by the Americans, left the fate of cities like Kirkuk to a referendum by “the people of Iraq” not later than 2007.

Obviously Americans imagined they would control Iraq to their advantage by sheer brute power. But this is not the way events turned out. Eventually, in December 2011, the last US solider left. President Obama failed to extract from Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki an honourable status-of-forces agreement. That is why it became unstated US policy to have Maliki replaced by a more “pliable” candidate – Abadi, for example.

When New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman asked Obama in the course of an interview in 2015: why did the President not order air-strikes against the Islamic State as soon as it reared its head? Obama’s response was startling: air strikes against IS at a stage when it was advancing towards Baghdad, would have relieved pressure on Maliki. In other words, the IS was an asset for destabilizing Maliki.

Meanwhile, there is total chaos in the north’s (Erbil) financial dealings with Baghdad. Barzani thought of getting out of this chaos by announcing a referendum. In his framework the timing seemed auspicious because the Iraq army would be less energetic is retaliating since it is tired from the recent wars in the north with the IS[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Magnitude 7 earthquake strikes Tibet after floods

A magnitude 7 earthquake struck northern Tibet on Thursday, October 22. The tremor came weeks after deadly flash floods and landslides hit the mountainous region near the Nepal-China border. Initial reports did not confirm casualties or damage from the earthquake.

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A powerful earthquake measuring magnitude 7 struck northern Tibet on Thursday, October 22, weeks after deadly flash floods and landslides devastated parts of the mountainous region near the Nepal-China border.

The earthquake struck the Nagqu region of Tibet, according to initial reports from earthquake monitoring agencies. The tremor occurred at around 10:33 pm local time in China, with the epicentre located in a county in northern Tibet.

The earthquake was reported at a depth of around 10 kilometres by China’s Earthquake Networks Center. The United States Geological Survey also reported the magnitude 7 tremor, placing its depth at approximately 18 kilometres.

There were no immediate confirmed reports of casualties or property damage following the earthquake, according to initial information available after the tremor.

Earthquake strikes northern Tibet

The earthquake occurred in the Nagqu region, approximately 400 kilometres from Lhasa, the capital of Tibet.

The tremor was recorded on Thursday evening, with monitoring agencies reporting slightly different estimates of its depth. China’s Earthquake Networks Center placed the epicentre at a depth of 10 kilometres, while the US Geological Survey reported a depth of 18 kilometres.

Further information about the earthquake’s impact was awaited at the time of the initial reports.

Tibet earthquake follows deadly flash floods

The earthquake struck weeks after devastating flash floods and landslides affected the mountainous region along the Nepal-China border in late August.

The earlier disaster followed an ice-and-rock avalanche near the border on August 26, triggering flash floods that swept through downstream areas. Homes, roads, bridges and power infrastructure were among the structures affected, while rescue and recovery operations continued in the aftermath.

The floods caused extensive destruction and left thousands of people dead or missing across the affected region, according to reports published after the disaster.

The latest earthquake is a separate event from the earlier avalanche and flooding disaster. An assessment of its effects was not immediately available.

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Macron rejects Trump’s immigration claims over France riots

French President Emmanuel Macron criticised Donald Trump and other foreign leaders over their comments on France’s recent unrest. Macron rejected claims that the country was being overrun by migrants and Islamists, calling such assertions false.

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French President Emmanuel Macron has criticised US President Donald Trump and other foreign leaders for their remarks about the recent unrest in France, accusing them of using the situation to advance their political agendas.

Speaking to reporters in Doha on Wednesday, October 21, Macron said foreign manipulation of information following the violence and looting had led to comments he described as “unacceptable” and “stupid”.

When asked whether he was referring to Trump, Macron replied, “Among others.”

The remarks came after Trump attributed the unrest in France to immigration and urged European countries to tighten their borders. Macron rejected claims that France had been overrun by migrants and Islamists, describing them as false.

Macron rejects claims linking unrest to immigration

Trump had argued that immigration was responsible for the violence in France, dismissing other explanations related to education and social concerns. He also urged Macron to close France’s borders, warning that the country faced serious consequences if it failed to act.

In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump claimed that immigration had damaged France and called on the country to regain control of its borders.

Macron pushed back against this narrative, saying that some foreign leaders were repeating misleading claims about the situation. He also highlighted the circulation of artificial intelligence-generated images that depicted events he said had never taken place in France.

The French president said claims that the country had been invaded by large numbers of migrants and Islamists were “completely false”.

Macron argued that some politicians were using France’s domestic situation to support their own political campaigns, particularly as elections approach in their respective countries.

French minister offers to counter misinformation

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said his office could provide clarification to countries concerned about the situation.

He said the aim was to help prevent the spread or amplification of false information and unsupported claims on social media.

Macron also criticised those speaking negatively about France during the unrest, saying that foreign leaders should not exploit the country’s difficulties for political purposes.

Protests driven by rising living costs

The unrest followed demonstrations over rising living costs, inflation and concerns about public services. The protests initially involved students demanding more teachers and better school conditions before expanding to include trade unions and others concerned about economic pressures.

Violence and looting subsequently affected Paris and other French cities.

The French interior ministry estimated that 550,000 people took part in the nationwide demonstrations, while the CGT trade union put attendance at 800,000. The demands reported in connection with the demonstrations centred on living costs and public services rather than immigration.

The French government has faced pressure to prevent further violence, with additional demonstrations planned in the coming days.

Macron said France had the means to maintain order and indicated that a state of emergency was not necessary at that stage.

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Marco Rubio says India and US share extraordinary alignment on key issues

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said India and the United States share an extraordinary alignment on core issues, even though disagreements between the two countries may arise.

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described the relationship between India and the United States as one marked by an “extraordinary alignment” on important national interests, while acknowledging that the two countries may disagree on certain matters.

Speaking at a ‘Freedom 250’ reception in Mumbai on Tuesday during his visit to India, Rubio said the partnership between the two countries could play a significant role in shaping the 21st century. He emphasised the importance of cooperation between the two nations on issues that affect their respective national interests.

Rubio highlights shared priorities in the Indo-Pacific

Rubio identified the need for a free and open Indo-Pacific as a key area of common ground between New Delhi and Washington. He said both countries had an interest in ensuring that no nation claimed dominance over international shipping routes.

He acknowledged that disagreements between countries were inevitable but said the alignment between India and the US on core issues remained significant, particularly given the size and influence of both nations.

Rubio also described India as a powerful, influential and advanced country, calling it a strong geopolitical partner for the United States.

India-US relationship could shape the 21st century

Rubio said the partnership between the two countries could help shape the course of the coming decades. He pointed to shared values, including individual dignity, democratic principles and the rule of law, as common ground between the two nations.

He also noted that decisions being taken today on geopolitics, economics, trade and commerce would have consequences for future generations.

The US Secretary of State said he believed the relationship between India and the United States could positively influence what the 21st century looks like.

Trade ties remain an important part of the relationship

Rubio’s remarks come amid ongoing discussions between India and the United States over trade and other bilateral issues.

Earlier on Tuesday, he said the two countries were very close to signing a bilateral trade agreement, with a small number of outstanding points still to be resolved.

Trade relations have faced challenges over tariffs, India’s purchases of Russian oil and US immigration policies. Despite these differences, Rubio’s comments underscored Washington’s emphasis on the broader strategic partnership with New Delhi.

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