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Referendum in Iraq’s Kurdish North Sets Cat Among Pigeons

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masood barzani

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]By: Saeed Naqvi

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

Iraqi Kurdish region’s planned referendum on September 25 for independence has set the cat among the pigeons. Last minute efforts are on to persuade the Kurdish autonomous region’s President, Masoud Barzani, to postpone the referendum because it will distract regional and global powers from their main focus – that of destroying the residual Islamic State elements in the region.

All countries are either opposed to the referendum or, like the United States, opposed to the timing of it. Only Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel stands out in lone splendour, endorsing the referendum. By doing so, he has, of course, let the cat out of the bag. This has added to Iran’s concerns. Tehran says it will seal its Kurdish borders should the referendum take place. The implication is that necessities of daily life, which came from Iran will no longer be available to Iraqi Kurdistan. For a landlocked enclave, this is severe punishment.

It is easy to conclude that the US and Iran are on the same page on the referendum. But this is a wrong impression. For Iran, any suggestion of eventual independence for any of the Kurdish enclaves, is anathema. For the US, the timing of the referendum is inconvenient. It disrupts its script for the region.

New Delhi knows better than anyone else that an independent Iraqi Kurdistan has been US’s pet project ever since its forces entered Iraq, first during operation Desert Storm in February 1992 and finally during the invasion of the country in March-April 2003.

The No Fly Zone imposed on the Kurdish north in 1992 created an autonomous region. This was not without an eye on the future.

It was in 2003-2004 when, President George W. Bush was drooling all over New Delhi, he invited India to take charge of the Kurdish north. Military officials of all ranks, were asked to be ready, to set sail in the largest ships available with the Indian navy. Yes, New Delhi came very close to playing an Imperial role in West Asia as America’s sidekick. It was Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee who saw the US not as a great power but a dangerous one for its adventures in West Asia. He scuttled the deal.

Regional circumstances changed but the original blue print for Iraq’s Kurdish north remained dear to US policy makers. But the timing for the referendum is wrong because, at least on the face of it, the US would like to be seen in the lead, fighting the Islamic State.

There is an even graver concern that the referendum might adversely affect Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s fortunes in the April 2018 General elections. Any reversal for Abadi, a loyal US nominee, will be a gain for Iran. This is a disturbing prospect for Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Trump.

Iranians see the referendum in two ways: should it lead to independence, they will choke Barzani’s enclave by sealing its borders. The Kurdish north constitutes 20 percent of Iraq. If it separates, Shias, who are an overwhelming majority already, will become 85 percent of the population. It will only consolidate the “Shia crescent”.

Iranians are also not afflicted by fear of their Kurds, barely four percent of the total population, tearing away from the main nation because of ethnicity, religion and language. Iranian Kurds, like the rest of Iran are Aryans, a sizable number being Shia. Their language, Pahlavi, is close to modern Persian.

For Turkey, an Iraqi Kurd enclave is a life and death issue. There is oil in Diyarbakir, the principal Kurd city in Turkey; 15 of their power stations are on rivers flowing through the region. But these are not the reasons why Turkish tanks and troops have been amassed on the border with Iraq. The official Kurdish explanation makes sense: the military presence on the border is designed to block a flow of refugees from the Iraqi side should the situation in the province take a violent turn.

Turkey does have a very real fear of refugees because it is already struggling to assimilate over three million refugees from Syria.

The referendum scare is part of the confusion the US has created in the region. Americans entered Iraq with one script but are having to cope with completely unexpected outcomes.

The no-fly-zone made Kurdish-Iraq into a self governing enclave except for Defence and Foreign Affairs which were left to Baghdad. But the fate of important cities like Kirkuk, one of the world’s great oil bearing areas, would be decided later. Article 140 of Iraq’s constitution, written by the Americans, left the fate of cities like Kirkuk to a referendum by “the people of Iraq” not later than 2007.

Obviously Americans imagined they would control Iraq to their advantage by sheer brute power. But this is not the way events turned out. Eventually, in December 2011, the last US solider left. President Obama failed to extract from Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki an honourable status-of-forces agreement. That is why it became unstated US policy to have Maliki replaced by a more “pliable” candidate – Abadi, for example.

When New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman asked Obama in the course of an interview in 2015: why did the President not order air-strikes against the Islamic State as soon as it reared its head? Obama’s response was startling: air strikes against IS at a stage when it was advancing towards Baghdad, would have relieved pressure on Maliki. In other words, the IS was an asset for destabilizing Maliki.

Meanwhile, there is total chaos in the north’s (Erbil) financial dealings with Baghdad. Barzani thought of getting out of this chaos by announcing a referendum. In his framework the timing seemed auspicious because the Iraq army would be less energetic is retaliating since it is tired from the recent wars in the north with the IS[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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S Jaishankar defends Russian oil imports, says it won’t end Ukraine war

S Jaishankar defended India’s Russian oil purchases, saying the Ukraine war can only be resolved through dialogue, diplomacy and negotiations

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External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has defended India’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil, saying that stopping the trade would not bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

Speaking to the media during his official visit to Kyiv, Jaishankar said the conflict, now in its fifth year, can only be resolved through dialogue, diplomacy and negotiations. He was responding to questions about Western pressure on India to reduce its purchases of Russian energy.

“This conflict, which is today in its fifth year, will not be solved because somebody is buying or not buying oil or alumina or minerals or metals or fertiliser,” Jaishankar said. He added that dialogue, diplomacy and negotiation were the way to resolve the conflict.

Jaishankar stresses India’s energy security

Jaishankar also highlighted the challenge of ensuring energy security for India’s 1.4 billion people amid difficult global energy conditions.

He said India respects Ukraine’s perspective on the issue but expects other countries to respect New Delhi’s position as well.

India imports around 88 per cent of its crude oil requirement from overseas. According to the report, about one-third of those imports currently come from Russia.

Western pressure over Russian oil

Jaishankar’s comments came amid continued pressure from Western countries over India’s purchases of Russian crude.

The United States and the United Kingdom have backed the argument that restricting Russia’s energy revenues could reduce the funds available to support its military operations in Ukraine.

Last month, the US Senate passed a bipartisan bill that could allow President Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on goods from countries, including India and China, that continue importing Russian oil and gas.

India remains a major buyer of Russian crude

Russia has remained India’s largest source of crude oil despite pressure from Washington. However, Indian imports of Russian crude declined in August after reaching record levels in June and July.

Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian crude accounted for only around 0.2 per cent of India’s crude imports. After Western countries moved away from Russian oil following the invasion, India emerged as the largest buyer of discounted Russian crude.

India imported around 2.1 million barrels of Russian crude per day in August, according to data cited in the report. That represented more than 40 per cent of India’s crude imports, down from around 2.6 million barrels per day in June and July.

Russian exporters increasingly rely on Asian buyers

Russia has also become more dependent on Asian markets after European sanctions disrupted its traditional energy trade.

Countries such as India and China have emerged as important buyers of Russian crude. Continued demand from Indian refiners has helped Russian exporters maintain significant volumes despite restrictions affecting Western shipping, insurance and financial services.

Jaishankar, meanwhile, maintained that the Ukraine conflict requires a diplomatic solution rather than an attempt to resolve it through decisions by individual countries over oil purchases.

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Nepal seeks climate compensation from India, China and US for deadly floods

Nepal has sought climate compensation from India, China and the US after a devastating flash flood killed more than 1,100 people and left nearly 4,500 missing.

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Nepal has sought climate-related compensation from India, China and the United States following the devastating flash floods that struck the country last week.

Nepal Foreign Minister Shishir Khanal said the country wants its diplomatic approach to move beyond conventional disaster aid towards what he described as justice and compensation. He argued that major greenhouse gas emitters have a responsibility towards vulnerable countries facing severe climate-related losses.

The flash flood struck the Bhotekoshi River basin on August 26 after a high-altitude glacial collapse along the Tibet-Nepal border. The disaster sent water, rocks and debris downstream, affecting villages across at least three districts.

More than 1,100 bodies have been recovered, while nearly 4,500 people remain missing, according to the report.

Nepal seeks accountability from major emitters

Khanal said Nepal’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is “virtually negligible”, yet the country is facing severe consequences associated with global warming, including glacier melt and extreme mountain disasters.

He said Nepal considers the response to such climate-related losses a matter of “legal and moral liability” rather than charity.

According to Khanal, Nepal intends to raise the issue at international forums and seek compensation for climate-related losses suffered by vulnerable countries.

He also highlighted the importance of Himalayan glaciers for South Asia’s water security, saying their disappearance could have consequences for billions of people dependent on rivers including the Ganges and Trishuli.

Nepal’s finance ministry has also sent a formal climate compensation claim letter to its international partners, Khanal said.

India has backed climate equity

India has consistently highlighted the principle of climate equity and pointed to its relatively low per capita greenhouse gas emissions.

New Delhi has argued that climate responsibilities should consider countries’ historical emissions, development requirements and respective capacities. India has also supported efforts to address loss and damage suffered by vulnerable developing countries.

India maintains that developed nations should provide financial resources to countries dealing with the effects of climate change.

Nepal approaches loss and damage fund

Nepal has formally approached the board of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage for urgent financial assistance following the August 26 flash flood.

The fund was established at COP27 in 2022 and operationalised at COP28.

A letter jointly signed by Nepal’s Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle and Forests and Agriculture Minister Geeta Chaudhary sought an urgent response to the disaster, citing extensive loss of life, displacement and destruction of homes and critical infrastructure.

The letter said the full extent of the economic and non-economic losses was yet to be determined, but preliminary information indicated that the impact had exceeded Nepal’s immediate response capacity.

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Bank of America VP Erin Piacenti killed in New York stabbing

Bank of America vice-president Erin Piacenti, 32, was fatally stabbed in an apparently random attack in New York’s Times Square.

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Bank of America vice-president Erin Piacenti was fatally stabbed in New York City’s Times Square in what authorities described as a random and unprovoked attack.

Piacenti, 32, was among two people stabbed in the incident near West 42nd Street and Seventh Avenue on August 31. She was taken to a hospital but later died from her injuries. The other victim, a 68-year-old man, survived and was reported to be in stable condition.

Who was Erin Piacenti?

Piacenti worked as a vice-president at Bank of America in its business selection and conflicts unit. She was also a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and Fordham Law School.

According to reports, Piacenti was a new mother and had recently returned to work following maternity leave. She had also recently marked her second wedding anniversary with her husband.

Bank of America expressed shock and sadness over her death, describing Piacenti as a valued colleague and extending condolences to her family and loved ones.

What happened in Times Square?

The stabbing took place at around 4:24 pm local time, according to the New York Police Department.

Police identified the alleged attacker as 49-year-old Pamela Cisneros. Authorities said she was carrying two large knives and attacked two people before confronting responding officers.

Police attempted to stop Cisneros, including using Tasers, but she continued advancing towards officers with the knives. Officers then opened fire, and Cisneros was later pronounced dead.

New York Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said the attack appeared to be random and unprovoked. Police also said Cisneros had a documented history of mental health issues. The motive remains under investigation.

Bank of America reacts to employee’s death

Bank of America said it was “shocked and deeply saddened” by Piacenti’s death and said she would be greatly missed.

The bank’s security teams are also supporting the police investigation and addressing security concerns involving its offices and employees.

Piacenti’s death has left her family, colleagues and friends mourning the loss of a young professional who had recently returned to work after becoming a mother.

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