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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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9 years ago

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Iranian President Pezeshkian at UN says Iranians have been victims of US terrorism

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said at the UN General Assembly that Iranians had been victims of US terrorism and insisted that Iran had acted in self-defence.

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2 days ago

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September 23, 2026

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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accused the United States of subjecting Iranians to what he described as terrorism while addressing the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday.

Pezeshkian said Iran had defended itself against attacks and rejected the characterisation of the country as a terrorist actor. His remarks came during a rare wartime appearance at the UN as tensions between Iran and the United States remain high.

Pezeshkian accuses US and Israel of attacks

Speaking at the General Assembly, Pezeshkian said Iranian civilians had been targeted by attacks and described the actions against his country as aggression.

“We have only defended ourselves. We are not terrorists,” he said, according to the report.

Pezeshkian also accused the United States and Israel of attacking Iran, while maintaining that Tehran’s response was an act of self-defence.

The Iranian president displayed photographs of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and more than 150 schoolchildren who, according to his account, were killed during the early days of the conflict.

Iran’s message at the UN

Pezeshkian’s address came against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States and heightened tensions in the region.

Iranian officials had indicated ahead of the UN visit that they intended to highlight what Tehran considers attacks against its people and raise concerns over the international response to the conflict.

The Iranian delegation’s visit to New York also comes amid restrictions imposed by the United States on the delegation’s movement and other aspects of its stay, according to reporting ahead of the address.

Pezeshkian says Iran defended itself

Pezeshkian’s central message at the UN was that Iran’s military actions should be viewed as a response to attacks rather than terrorism.

His description of the conflict and the allegations against the United States and Israel represent the Iranian government’s position. They should therefore be attributed to Pezeshkian rather than presented as independently established facts.

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PM Modi’s Canada visit could help wrap trade talks, says Canada PM Mark Carney

Canadian PM Mark Carney said he is looking forward to hosting PM Narendra Modi, with both countries aiming to conclude their ongoing trade negotiations.

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2 days ago

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September 23, 2026

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said he is looking forward to hosting Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as India and Canada continue efforts to advance their bilateral relationship and conclude ongoing trade negotiations.

The two countries have been working towards a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), with both sides previously setting a target to conclude the negotiations in 2026.

Carney and Modi have held discussions on strengthening economic ties between India and Canada, including trade and investment. Their engagement has gained momentum following Carney’s visit to India earlier this year.

India-Canada trade talks

India and Canada formally resumed efforts towards a broader trade agreement after a period of strained bilateral ties. The two sides have committed to advancing negotiations on a CEPA covering their economic relationship.

In June, Carney and Modi reviewed progress in bilateral economic cooperation during their meeting on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in France. They expressed satisfaction with the progress in CEPA negotiations and reaffirmed their shared objective of concluding the talks in 2026.

During Carney’s visit to India in March, the two leaders had also agreed to accelerate negotiations on the CEPA and work towards finalising the agreement during 2026.

Modi’s proposed Canada visit

Carney had invited PM Modi to visit Canada in 2026, and the two leaders agreed to remain engaged through diplomatic channels to work towards a mutually convenient date for the visit.

The proposed visit comes as New Delhi and Ottawa seek to build on renewed diplomatic and economic engagement, with trade negotiations remaining a key part of the relationship.

The focus on completing the trade talks comes as both countries look to expand commercial ties and establish a broader economic framework through the proposed CEPA.

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Trump issues fresh Iran warning at UN General Assembly, signals deal after midterms

US President Donald Trump issued a fresh warning to Iran during his UN General Assembly address, saying he faces a choice between a deal and further escalation.

Published

3 days ago

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September 22, 2026

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US President Donald Trump used his address to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday to outline what he described as a major decision over Iran, putting the possibility of a deal against further military escalation.

Speaking at the UN in New York, Trump said he had a “big decision” to make. He questioned whether the United States should pursue an agreement that would allow Iran to rebuild or instead take further action against the Islamic Republic.

Trump later indicated that he believed an agreement with Iran could be reached after the US midterm elections, which are scheduled for November 3.

Trump says deal with Iran remains possible

During his speech, Trump presented two possible paths. He said a deal could allow Iran to rebuild and become a stronger country, while also raising the possibility of destroying the Islamic Republic if an agreement was not reached.

Trump said he believed a deal could eventually be reached, arguing that Iran was waiting to see the outcome of the US midterm elections.

His comments came amid the continuing US-Iran conflict and renewed diplomatic activity surrounding the confrontation. Trump’s UN appearance came as Washington was also engaged in discussions with multiple international leaders over the Iran conflict and other global issues.

Iranian delegation walks out during Trump’s speech

The Iranian delegation reportedly left the General Assembly chamber as Trump began describing the military confrontation with Iran.

According to the report, only one person from the Iranian delegation remained seated as Trump spoke about the conflict and the military strikes of the past six months.

The walkout came as tensions between Washington and Tehran remained high, with both sides facing pressure over the continuation of the conflict.

Trump’s latest warning follows earlier comments

Trump’s UN remarks came days after he said he was approaching a major decision over whether to intensify military action against Iran or pursue another route.

He had also indicated before his UN appearance that he could be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during the UN General Assembly in New York.

The possibility of renewed negotiations comes against the backdrop of continuing military and diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

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