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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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US hits Iranian missile sites and mine-laying boats near Strait of Hormuz amid peace talks

US Central Command executed targeted strikes against Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying vessels near Bandar Abbas, testing a fragile ceasefire even as high-stakes diplomatic talks continue in the region.

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In a major development testing a fragile regional ceasefire, the United States military carried out targeted strikes in southern Iran on Monday. The operation hit missile launch sites and vessels allegedly attempting to lay mines near the crucial Strait of Hormuz, according to statements from the US Central Command (CENTCOM).

The military action took place near Bandar Abbas, a prominent southern port city hosting a primary Iranian naval base. Media reporting indicated that explosions were heard across multiple coastal locations, including Sirik and Jask.

Focus on ‘Self-Defense’ Amid Active Ceasefire

A spokesperson for CENTCOM, Capt. Tim Hawkins, confirmed that the engagement was defensive in nature. “US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces,” Hawkins stated. He noted that the operational targets included active missile launch sites alongside Iranian boats attempting to emplace naval mines. Despite the escalation, CENTCOM emphasized that it continues to exercise restraint under the parameters of the ongoing ceasefire brokered in early April.

According to media reports, the tactical response was triggered when two Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) boats were detected laying mines in the strategic shipping lane. Additionally, a surface-to-air missile site reportedly targeted American warplanes, prompting US forces to neutralize both the vessels and the missile installations. Media channels citing local updates indicated that four individuals were killed in the strikes, though the complete casualty figures remain unverified.

Diplomatic Dialogue Continues in Parallel

The strikes coincide with a critical phase of diplomatic negotiations aimed at extending the current truce. Top Iranian negotiators traveled to Qatar early this week to discuss a potential 60-day extension of the ceasefire, alongside provisions to keep the Strait of Hormuz fully operational for global trade.

US officials maintain that the military action does not signal an end to the active truce. A senior administration source clarified that the specific operations are “over for now”. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking from India, affirmed that diplomatic channels remain open and active. Rubio stated that intensive language discussions regarding the initial documents are ongoing, reiterating that the opening of the strategic strait remains a core objective.

Meanwhile, political leaders in Washington have separately reiterated demands for the secured disposal or international transfer of enriched uranium stockpiles as part of any comprehensive long-term agreement.

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US announces new America First visa schedule to boost business ties with India

During his official state visit to New Delhi, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a new America First visa schedule designed to prioritise business professionals and boost bilateral trade efficiency.

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In a significant development aimed at strengthening bilateral cooperation, the United States has introduced a new “America First” visa schedule. The policy update was announced by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during his official four-day visit to India. The new schedule is specifically designed to prioritise business professionals who play a key role in fortifying trade and strategic connections between the two nations.

Speaking about the initiative in the national capital, the top US diplomat clarified that the updated framework will not only assist visa applicants but will also significantly enhance operational productivity for the diplomatic mission. “We’re introducing a new America First visa schedule that prioritises business professionals that strengthen these ties,” Rubio stated. He added that the arrangement will enable the system to process applications with greater accuracy, speed, and efficiency.

Focus on Indo-Pacific and regional security

The announcement coincided with high-level discussions between the visiting diplomat and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The meeting, which lasted for over an hour, covered critical areas of bilateral interest, including trade, energy security, strategic technologies, defence cooperation, and the ongoing West Asia crisis. During the interaction, Rubio extended an official invitation from US President Donald Trump for PM Modi to visit the White House in the near future.

The US Secretary of State described the partnership between New Delhi and Washington as a foundational cornerstone of America’s overarching strategy for the Indo-Pacific region. Highlighting India’s central role, Rubio noted that his very first official engagement upon taking office was a meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), emphasizing that hosting the upcoming foreign ministers’ meeting in India acts as a tangible sign of the deep commitment to this framework.

Clarification on immigration rules

Addressing separate concerns regarding recent shifts in American immigration policies, the top diplomat provided a crucial clarification regarding the new guidelines for permanent residency. Media reports had previously highlighted anxieties surrounding a newly instituted rule that requires many legal immigrants to exit the US and apply for green cards from their home countries.

Rubio explicitly stated to the media that these measures are universal regulatory updates rather than policy shifts targeted at any specific nation. He reassured that the rule is applicable globally to all international applicants and is not directed exclusively at Indian citizens.

The visit marks Rubio’s first official trip to India since assuming office. His comprehensive itinerary began in Kolkata and includes a scheduled bilateral dialogue with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, alongside participation in the Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting alongside international counterparts.

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High stakes for India-US ties as top American diplomat arrives for critical bilateral talks

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has arrived in India for a vital four-day tour aimed at reinforcing bilateral cooperation amid global energy challenges, tariff disputes, and shifting regional security dynamics.

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has landed in Kolkata to begin an extensive four-day diplomatic tour of India, marking his first official visit to the country since assuming office. The visit arrives at a crucial juncture for bilateral relations, with both nations navigating complex global alignments, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and shifting economic dynamics.

Upon arriving in Kolkata, the top diplomat broke a 14-year hiatus since a US secretary of state last traveled to the eastern metropolis. Accompanied by his wife, Jeanette D. Rubio, and the US Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, the delegation commenced the tour by visiting the Missionaries of Charity headquarters, the historical Mother House founded by Mother Teresa.

Strategic energy shifts and regional security on the table

The four-day visit carries elevated strategic significance as the two major global partners look to address critical geopolitical challenges. Headlining the bilateral talks are the economic ripples of the US-Iran war, particularly its immediate fallout on international energy security and commercial trade routes.

The energy partnership remains a key focal point. While India continues to procure substantial volumes of discounted Russian crude oil to stabilize its domestic market, Washington is actively attempting to diversify New Delhi’s energy footprint by expanding American liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude exports to the South Asian nation. Additionally, the leadership will deliberate on resolving recent trade frictions arising from tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods.

Strengthening the bilateral roadmap

Prior to starting his engagements, the Secretary of State underlined the strength of the relationship, characterizing India as an invaluable partner and ally with whom Washington shares a robust and extensive collaborative framework. The visit serves as a top-level initiative to stabilize and accelerate the momentum of the bilateral partnership, backed by the personal investment of both US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The diplomat’s packed itinerary includes a high-profile meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, followed by extensive bilateral discussions with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. Furthermore, the tour will culminate in New Delhi, where the Secretary of State will join regional partners for a meeting of the Quad foreign ministers. Cultural stops in Agra and Jaipur are also scheduled during the four-day visit.

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