English हिन्दी
Connect with us

Latest world news

The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

Published

on

The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Latest world news

Trump says Republicans would have won US midterms if he was on ballot

US President Donald Trump claimed Republicans would have won the 2026 midterm elections in a landslide if he had been on the ballot, as Democrats made significant gains in key congressional contests.

Published

on

donald-trump

US President Donald Trump has reacted to the Republican Party’s setbacks in the 2026 US midterm elections, claiming that the party would have secured a landslide victory if he had been on the ballot.

Trump made the remark as Democrats registered significant gains in congressional contests, putting Republican control of Congress under pressure.

The November 3 midterm elections were widely seen as an important test of Trump’s presidency, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats up for election.

According to Trump’s assessment, his presence on the ballot would have changed the outcome for Republicans.

The President’s remarks came after Democrats made significant advances in several closely watched races, challenging Republican control of both chambers of Congress.

Democrats make gains in key congressional races

The election results indicated a strong performance by Democrats in several important contests.

In the Senate, Democrats flipped multiple Republican-held seats, including victories in Texas, South Carolina and Ohio. In the House of Representatives, Democratic candidates also defeated several Republican incumbents, bringing the party closer to securing a majority.

The developments raised the possibility of Democrats taking control of both chambers, although some contests were still being counted.

A change in congressional control would have significant implications for Trump’s remaining presidential term, potentially making it more difficult for his administration to advance its legislative agenda.

Why the 2026 US midterm elections matter

The US midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s four-year term. Unlike presidential elections, voters elect members of Congress, including representatives and a portion of the Senate.

The elections are particularly important because the party controlling Congress has considerable influence over legislation, government spending and oversight of the administration.

For Trump, the 2026 elections were a major political test as Republicans sought to maintain their congressional majorities.

Democratic gains could change the political balance in Washington during the final two years of his presidency.

Continue Reading

Latest world news

Trump approval rating near record low at 32% ahead of US midterms

US President Donald Trump’s approval rating remained at 32% ahead of the congressional midterm elections, just above his record-low reading of 31% recorded two weeks earlier, according to a nationwide poll.

Published

on

Donald Trump

US President Donald Trump’s approval rating remained close to its lowest level ahead of Tuesday’s congressional midterm elections, with a nationwide poll indicating that a significant section of American voters viewed their ballots as an opportunity to express opposition to the Republican leader.

According to the latest poll completed on Monday, November 2, only 32% of respondents approved of the job Trump was doing as President. The figure was unchanged from the previous week and just one percentage point above his record-low reading of 31%, recorded two weeks earlier.

The findings come as Republicans seek to retain their majorities in Congress, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives up for grabs and several closely contested races expected to shape the Senate.

Although Trump himself is not on the ballot, his presidency has emerged as a significant factor in the midterm elections.

Democrats lead Republicans in nationwide congressional preference

The poll found that Democrats held an eight-percentage-point advantage over Republicans when respondents were asked which party they preferred to see in charge of Congress.

Around 46% of respondents favoured Democrats, compared with 38% who preferred Republicans.

However, the Democratic lead was narrower than the 11-percentage-point advantage recorded in a similar poll conducted a week earlier.

The so-called generic ballot question provides an overall indication of voters’ preferences between the two parties for control of Congress. However, it does not account for differences between individual states and congressional districts, which ultimately determine the composition of the House and Senate.

Political strategists from both parties believe Democrats have a stronger opportunity to take control of the House of Representatives. Their prospects in the Senate are considered more difficult, with the party facing challenges in states including Alaska and Michigan.

Half of independent voters see their vote as opposition to Trump

The survey also highlighted the extent to which Trump is influencing voters’ decisions despite not contesting the election himself.

Among registered independent voters, 50% said they viewed their congressional vote as a vote against Trump.

In comparison, 13% said their vote was in support of the President, while 33% said Trump was not a factor in their voting decision.

These findings indicate that voters’ views of the President are an important consideration for a section of the electorate heading into the congressional elections.

Rising cost of living emerges as a major election issue

Economic concerns, particularly the rising cost of living, featured prominently in the poll.

Around 78% of respondents said the cost of living would be either a very important or the most important issue in determining their voting decisions.

When asked which party was better equipped to handle the issue, 43% chose Democrats, compared with 32% who favoured Republicans.

The poll also pointed to concerns over rising fuel prices following the US military campaign against Iran, which began in February.

The increase in fuel prices has added to the economic challenges facing the Trump administration ahead of the elections.

Democrats report greater enthusiasm about voting

The survey also found a difference in voting enthusiasm between supporters of the two major political parties.

Around 49% of Democratic voters said they were very enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections.

Among Republican voters, the corresponding figure stood at 33%.

The difference in enthusiasm is an important factor for both parties as they seek to mobilise their supporters and secure votes across the country.

The latest poll surveyed 1,765 US adults online and had a margin of error of two percentage points.

Continue Reading

Latest world news

Two helicopters collide while landing in Nepal, one Indian killed

Two helicopters struck each other while approaching a heliport near Mount Everest in Nepal. One Indian national died, while another person was taken to hospital with injuries.

Published

on

An Indian national was killed and another person injured after two helicopters collided while attempting to land at a high-altitude heliport in Nepal’s Solukhumbu district, near Mount Everest.

Nepal Police confirmed the incident in a post on X. The heliport is located around 250 km from Kathmandu, the country’s capital. The deceased was identified as Vasanth Kumar Balaramaramadu, an Indian national, according to a report by Kathmandu Post.

The accident came into public attention after a video purportedly showing the collision circulated on social media. The footage appears to show the rotor blades of the two helicopters striking each other shortly before landing, following which both aircraft fall onto the icy ground.

However, the authenticity of the video has not been independently verified by report.

Nabin Raja Budhathoki, who is in charge of Solukhumbu district police, told AFP that one foreign national had died at the scene, while another injured person had been taken to hospital.

Helicopters play an important role in Nepal, transporting tourists, mountaineers and supplies across its mountainous terrain. They are also used for emergency evacuations.

Nepal has eight of the world’s 14 highest mountains and receives thousands of foreign climbers and trekkers every year. Flying in these high-altitude areas presents considerable challenges.

At higher elevations, thinner air gives helicopter rotor blades fewer air molecules to push against, reducing the lift they can generate. Engines also receive less oxygen for combustion, which can affect their power output.

A similar high-altitude helicopter accident was reported just days earlier in India’s Uttarakhand. That helicopter crashed shortly after taking off from Badrinath, killing all six people on board, including the pilot and five passengers.

An Indian national was killed and another person injured after two helicopters collided while landing at a high-altitude heliport in Nepal’s Solukhumbu district, near Mount Everest. A purported video of the collision has surfaced on social media, but its authenticity remains unverified.

Continue Reading

Trending

© Copyright 2022 APNLIVE.com