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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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8 years ago

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Trump approves nearly $9 billion weapons sales to Israel, UAE and other allies amid Iran tensions

The US has fast-tracked nearly $9 billion in weapons sales to Israel, UAE and other allies as tensions linked to the Iran conflict continue despite a fragile ceasefire.

Published

5 days ago

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May 2, 2026

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Donald Trump statement

The United States has approved nearly $9 billion worth of weapons sales to key Middle Eastern allies, including Israel and the United Arab Emirates, amid ongoing tensions linked to the Iran conflict.

The decision, cleared by the administration of Donald Trump, includes expedited military transfers to Israel, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait. The approvals were granted under an emergency provision, allowing authorities to bypass the usual congressional review process.

Emergency clearance amid ongoing conflict

Officials said the move was necessary due to the evolving security situation in the region, particularly as the conflict involving Iran continues despite a fragile ceasefire. The war, which began earlier in 2026, has heightened instability across West Asia.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio invoked emergency powers to fast-track the deals, citing urgent defence requirements for allied nations.

What the arms package includes

The approved package includes a mix of advanced defence systems and precision weapons:

  • Patriot missile defence replenishments worth over $4 billion for Qatar
  • Precision-guided weapon systems for multiple countries
  • Integrated battle command systems for Kuwait
  • Additional advanced weapons support for Israel and the UAE

The total value of these deals is estimated at over $8.6 billion, often rounded to nearly $9 billion.

Timing linked to iran war

The approval comes nearly nine weeks into the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, with tensions still high despite a ceasefire that has been in place for several weeks.

Analysts note that the move signals continued US military backing for its regional allies, particularly in strengthening air defence and precision strike capabilities during uncertain conditions.

Criticism and concerns

The decision to bypass congressional oversight has drawn criticism from some quarters, particularly over transparency and the broader implications of increasing arms supplies in a conflict-prone region.

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Trump and Putin hold over 90-minute call, discuss Iran war and Ukraine conflict

Trump and Putin held a 90-minute call focusing on Iran tensions and the Ukraine conflict, with warnings over escalation and talks of ceasefire.

Published

7 days ago

on

April 30, 2026

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Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone conversation lasting more than 90 minutes, focusing on escalating tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

According to official statements, the discussion was described as “frank and businesslike,” with both leaders addressing key global security concerns. A major part of the conversation centred on the situation involving Iran and developments in the Persian Gulf.

Putin supported Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire related to Iran, suggesting that continued restraint could create space for negotiations and help stabilise the region. However, he also issued a strong warning, stating that renewed military action by the United States or Israel could lead to “extremely damaging consequences” not only for Iran but for the wider international community.

Ukraine conflict also discussed

The leaders also discussed the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has continued for several years since Russia’s invasion in 2022. During the call, there were indications of potential efforts toward a temporary ceasefire, although no final agreement has been confirmed.

Reports suggest that the idea of a short-term pause in hostilities was explored, possibly linked to upcoming symbolic dates, but significant differences between the parties remain unresolved.

Focus on diplomacy amid global tensions

The call highlights ongoing diplomatic engagement between Washington and Moscow at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions involving both the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

While both sides acknowledged the importance of dialogue, the situation on the ground in both conflict zones remains complex, with no immediate resolution in sight.

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Trump rejects Iran peace plan as tensions rise, Tehran signals military readiness

Trump rejects Iran’s peace plan, keeping focus on nuclear concerns as Tehran signals readiness and tensions continue to rise.

Published

7 days ago

on

April 30, 2026

By

Donald Trump statement

U.S. President Donald Trump has rejected a proposal from Iran aimed at easing ongoing tensions, signaling a continued deadlock between the two countries.

The proposal reportedly included steps linked to easing restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route. However, the United States declined the offer, maintaining that any agreement must address concerns related to Iran’s nuclear programme.

Washington has made it clear that resolving nuclear issues remains a priority and that partial measures without broader commitments will not be accepted.

Nuclear issue remains central

The U.S. position continues to focus on preventing Iran from advancing its nuclear capabilities. Officials believe that without a comprehensive agreement, temporary arrangements could delay a long-term resolution.

The rejection of the proposal indicates that negotiations remain stalled, with both sides holding firm on key demands.

Iran issues warning

Following the rejection, Iranian officials have issued strong statements, indicating readiness to respond if pressure from the U.S. continues.

Reports suggest that Iran has asserted its military preparedness, warning that any escalation could lead to serious consequences. The remarks reflect growing tensions as diplomatic efforts struggle to produce results.

Rising geopolitical tension

The situation remains volatile, with both countries engaged in a prolonged standoff. Measures such as restrictions on trade routes and strategic pressure points continue to impact the broader region.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical factor in the conflict, given its importance for global energy supplies.

Outlook uncertain

With no immediate breakthrough in sight, tensions between the United States and Iran are expected to persist. The lack of agreement on key issues, particularly the nuclear programme, continues to hinder progress toward de-escalation.

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