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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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PoK protest leader seeks India’s help amid Pakistan crackdown, alleges humanitarian crisis

JAAC leader Sardar Aman Khan has appealed to India for humanitarian assistance, alleging shortages of food and medicines amid Pakistan’s crackdown on protesters in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

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The leader of the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), Sardar Aman Khan, has appealed to India for humanitarian assistance amid the ongoing unrest in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), claiming that the region is facing severe shortages of essential supplies following a crackdown by Pakistani authorities.

According to Khan, residents are struggling to access food and medicines as security operations against protesters continue. He also urged India to consider opening the Line of Control (LoC) to allow humanitarian assistance and provide civilians with the option of crossing into India if the situation worsens.

JAAC chief calls for humanitarian assistance

Speaking at a public gathering, Khan claimed that an economic blockade imposed after the crackdown had created serious hardships for people in the region.

In a video that has circulated widely on social media, he is heard saying that PoK residents need India’s assistance due to shortages of essential commodities.

He also appealed for the opening of crossing points along the LoC, particularly in the Poonch and Doda sectors, alleging that the ongoing restrictions had further intensified the humanitarian situation.

During the rally at Rawalakot’s Eidgah Ground, Khan asked the crowd whether they should move towards the Line of Control. The gathering repeatedly responded in support of the proposal.

He further warned that if public demands continued to be met with force, people could consider other options.

It is important to note that the authenticity of the viral video, reportedly from Khan’s June 30 rally, has not been independently verified.

Protests continue across PoK

The appeal comes as demonstrations continue across Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, where protests against the Pakistani administration have been ongoing since last month.

During a recent rally at Eidgah Ground, protesters raised slogans including “PoK is not part of Pakistan” and “We want freedom,” indicating that the movement has expanded beyond demands for reforms to include calls for independence from Pakistan’s political control over the region.

Crackdown follows ban on JAAC

The unrest intensified after Pakistani authorities banned the Joint Awami Action Committee on June 5, designating the grassroots organisation as a terrorist group.

According to a recent report by the International Centre for Peace Studies, Pakistan has historically exercised significant political control over Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan through mainstream political parties aligned with Islamabad.

The report also noted that the ruling party in Islamabad has consistently won elections in both regions, suggesting a long-standing pattern of political influence.

Meanwhile, several analysts have argued that the ongoing crisis reflects growing dissatisfaction among local residents with the regional administration, which they describe as lacking independent authority. They also contend that the ban on the JAAC and the use of force against protesters are part of broader efforts to suppress the expanding protest movement.

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Death to Trump chants heard during Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral appearance in Iran

Crowds at a funeral ceremony attended by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei chanted “Death to Trump” as regional tensions remained high following the recent Iran-Israel conflict.

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Crowds attending a funeral ceremony in Iran raised chants of “Death to Trump” as the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made a public appearance during the event.

The slogans were heard as thousands gathered to pay tribute to those killed during the recent conflict involving Iran and Israel. The ceremony also marked one of Ayatollah Khamenei’s notable public appearances after the military escalation that had heightened tensions across the region.

Anti-US slogans raised during ceremony

Videos circulating from the funeral ceremony showed mourners chanting “Death to America” and “Death to Trump” while Ayatollah Khamenei attended the event. Such slogans have long been associated with state-backed public gatherings in Iran and were repeated during the ceremony attended by senior Iranian officials and large crowds.

The funeral was held to honour military commanders, nuclear scientists and other individuals who Iran says were killed during the recent conflict. The gathering drew thousands of people to the capital, where processions and official tributes were organised.

Public appearance after recent conflict

Ayatollah Khamenei’s appearance came after weeks of heightened tensions in the Middle East following Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent military exchanges between the two countries. The conflict also saw the United States carry out strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, further escalating regional tensions.

The funeral ceremony was among the Supreme Leader’s most significant public appearances since the conflict, with state media extensively covering the event.

Regional tensions remain high

Relations between Iran, Israel and the United States remain strained despite the ceasefire announced following the recent hostilities. Officials from the three countries continue to exchange strong statements over the military operations and the future of Iran’s nuclear programme.

The funeral ceremony reflected the continuing anti-US and anti-Israel sentiment expressed by sections of the Iranian establishment and supporters attending the event.

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USA marks 250 years with Independence Day with nationwide celebrations

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The United States of America is observing its Independence Day on July 4 with celebrations taking place across the country. Public events, parades, concerts, and fireworks have been organized in several cities as Americans mark the nation holiday.

Large gatherings have been reported in cities including Washington D.C., New York, Boston, and Philadelphia, where thousands of people are participating in officials and community-led celebrations. Public parks, streets, and other venues have been prepared to host visitors throughout the day.

Government officials, including US President Donald Trump, extended Independence Day greetings and participated in events celebrating the occasion. Ceremonies honouring military personnel, experts, and first responders have also been held in different parts of he country.

Authorities have stepped up security arrangements at major event locations to manage large crowds. Additional police forces and emergency response teams have been posted, while officials have advised the public to follow safety instructions during the celebrations.

The holiday has also resulted in increased travel activity, with airports, highways, and railway stations experiencing heavy passenger movement. Hotels, restaurants and tourist attractions are seeing a rise in visitors as many people use the long weekend for travel and family gatherings.

Although weather conditions have disrupted a few outdoor events in some areas, most programme are continuing as scheduled. Fireworks displays are expected to take place in the evening at several locations, including major cities known for their annual Independence Day celebrations.

The nation celebrates Independence Day every July 4. It marks the adoption of the Declaration of Independence in 1776, when 13 American colonies became independent from British rule. It is one of the most important national holidays in the United States and is celebrated with parades, fireworks, official ceremonies, and community events across the country.

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