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Voda-Idea merger: An idea whose time has come

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Vodafone-Idea

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Cellular telephony in India a loss-making leviathan that cannot last 

By Sindhu Bhattacharya

As it becomes clear that India’s number two and three telecom operators, Vodafone India and Idea Cellular, explore a merger, the question really is why not? For the first time in its history, India—the world’s second largest telecom market—is inching towards a revenue loss.

Analysts say India’s telecom industry could see between 3-5% revenue loss this fiscal as heightened competition and falling ARPUs (Average Revenue Per User) plague the players.

To a large extent, this is a consequence of the arrival of a new entrant in an already crowded market – Reliance Jio Infocomm launched services in September last year with a bouquet of freebies, distorting market pricing and forcing incumbent players to also launch various discounted plans.

With the entry of deep-pocketed RJio making conditions difficult, consolidation can only be a question of time. RJio came with free voice calls for life, free data for a limited period but its freebies continue till date. Remember, India’s telecom market has been fragmented all along. It had almost a dozen operators at peak – while this number has come down, it needs to further whittle down to only a handful of players, who can offer complete data service with high speed data and digital services. Lesser number of players but stronger players could push this market towards profitability at some point, the current fragmented structure surely wont.

Two analysts of brokerage Motilal Oswal, Aliasgar Shakir and Jay Gandhi, said in a note to clients that revenue and financial KPIs (key performance indicators) of India’s telecom market have sharply declined, thanks to the arrival of a new operator and the wireless industry is expected to see a decline of 3-5% in the current fiscal. “This will be for the first time and the market condition will only improve once the new operator starts charging subscribers…..new operator has severely impacted the market,” they said. The current fragmented, multi-operator telecom market should consolidate to only a handful of players.

The arrival of RJio is an indication that the going is getting tough, especially for the big three – Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea. So the talks between Vodafone and Idea signal a good beginning. The merged entity will likely become India’s largest telecom firm, overtaking Bharti, with close to 42% revenue market share and a 36 percent subscriber market share. This means close to half the industry revenues and a third of its subscribers. Besides, the merged entity could report revenues of around Rs 74,500 crore.

Look at the market dynamics pre-RJio. In September last year, Bharti had only a third of the share of revenues while in terms of subscribers, its market share was lower at less than a fourth. And this was the number one operator in the market. Put simply, this means the largest player in the Indian wireless telecom market did not have three in four subscribers and earned only a third of the industry revenues.

Now let us look at the number two and three players. Vodafone had less than a fourth of the revenue pie and just about 19% of a fifth of the total subscribers. Idea fared worse, obviously, with 18.7% revenue share and 16.7% share of subscribers. This clearly goes on to show how fragmented the market already was when RJio made its grand entry.

Lets us now see how the telcos have been performing financially. Vodafone Plc, the British parent, has had to write down close to five-and-a-half billion dollars in India recently. It has been talking of a listing on Indian bourses with little success and has never been profitable here, the world’s second largest telecom market. If a merger were to happen with Idea, it gets to not only perhaps reduce its losses but also a listing on the bourses since Idea is already listed, without having to undergo the IPO process. For Idea too, a merger makes sense. Analysts say it has been weighed down by debt of over Rs 40,000 crore and a merger would enable a re-rating, possible increase in market cap.

In the December quarter of FY17, market leader Bharti suffered due to increased competitive intensity. Third quarter net profit slumped 55 per cent from a year earlier as its voice and data businesses felt the full impact of RJio’s free services. Revenue fell 3 per cent as data and voice rates fell and more subscribers left the operator. Idea also reported a significant dent in its earnings thanks to RJIo’s arrival, reporting its first quarterly loss since getting listed. Its net loss was Rs 384 crore versus net profit of Rs 660 crore in the year-ago period. Revenue declined 3.7% to Rs 8,661 crore.

So will a merger of Vodafone and Idea improve things all round? Ratings agency Fitch had this to say: “A planned merger between Vodafone Group Plc’s Indian subsidiary and Idea Cellular should help them withstand intense price competition in the Indian telco market but is unlikely to lead to increased pricing power for operators in the short term, says Fitch Ratings. We retain our negative outlook on the sector, as fierce competition and rising capex will put pressure on most operators in 2017.”

It went on to prophesise that consolidation is natural in an industry with too many operators and a focus on price competition, and that industry should benefit from such a consolidation in the long term. However, the recent entry of Reliance Jio is likely to ensure that price competition will remain very high for at least one to two years.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Modi says right time to invest in Indian shipping sector; meets global CEOs

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday exhorted global investors to take bets on the Indian shipping sector, pointing out that this is the “right time” for such a move.

The Prime Minister also met a select chief executives of global majors, including DP World and APM, at a specially convened meeting on the sidelines of the India Maritime Week 2025 held here.

“For all of you hailing from different countries, this is the right time to work in the Indian shipping sector and also expand (your presence),” Modi said during a public address before the closed-door meeting with CEOs.

Modi listed several targets being chased by India in the maritime sector over the next few years, and underlined the importance of the global community in the same.

“You all are an important partner who will help us achieve all our aims. We welcome your ideas, innovations and investments,” Modi said.

He said that India allows 100 per cent foreign direct investment in the shipping and ports sector, and also provides incentives under the “Make In India, and Make For The World” vision.

Addressing an audience, including leaders of various companies, the Prime Minister affirmed India’s commitment to strengthening the supply chain resilience at a global level.

He also said that India is engaged in creating world-class mega ports, and cited the work undertaken on the Vadhavan Port to the north of the financial capital, which entered the top-10 firms in the world on the first day.

The government is also looking to grow the capacity at 12 major ports by four times and increase India’s share in containerised cargo at the global level.

Later, Modi held a meeting with top CEOs of shipping sector companies from across the world.

As per people in the know, he met AP Moller-Maersk Chairman Robert Maersk Uggla, DP World Group Chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Mediterranean Shipping Company Chief Executive Soren Toft, Adani Ports and SEZ Managing Director Karan Adani and French company CMA-CGM’s Senior Vice President Ludovic Renou.

The participation from over 85 countries in the IMW sends a strong message, Modi said, noting the presence of CEOs of major shipping giants, startups, policymakers, and innovators at the event.

The Prime Minister also thanked Port of Singapore (PSA) for the nearly Rs 8,000 crore investment in the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority’s fourth terminal, pointing out that this is also the largest FDI in the port sector in India.

Modi said more than 150 new initiatives have been launched under the ‘Maritime India Vision’, resulting in nearly doubling the capacity of major ports, a substantial reduction in turnaround time, and a new momentum in cruise tourism.

—PTI

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Economy news

ITR filing last date today: What taxpayers must know about penalties and delays

The deadline for ITR filing ends today, September 15. Missing it may lead to penalties, interest charges, refund delays, and loss of tax benefits.

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Income Tax Return

The deadline to file Income Tax Returns (ITR) for most taxpayers, including salaried individuals, pensioners, and small businesses not requiring audit, ends today, September 15. Those who miss the due date face penalties, interest charges, and loss of certain tax benefits.

Penalties for late filing

If the return is not filed by the deadline, taxpayers can still file a belated return until December 31. However, under Section 234F of the Income Tax Act, late filing attracts penalties.

  • For income up to Rs5 lakh: penalty is capped at Rs1,000.
  • For income above Rs5 lakh: penalty increases to Rs5,000.

Additionally, if any tax remains unpaid, Section 234A imposes an interest of 1% per month (or part thereof) until the return is filed.

Consequences of missing deadline

  • Loss of certain tax benefits: Belated filers cannot carry forward specific losses such as business or capital losses.
  • Restrictions on tax regime change: Taxpayers lose the option to switch between old and new tax regimes after the deadline.
  • Refund delays: Those eligible for refunds will face delays compared to timely filers.

Steps to file before time runs out

  • Gather documents: Form 16, Form 26AS, Annual Information Statement (AIS), bank interest certificates, and proofs of investments or deductions.
  • Use the e-filing portal: File immediately to avoid last-minute portal congestion.
  • Verify your return: Ensure the ITR is verified electronically or physically for it to be considered valid.

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Economy news

India’s GDP surges 7.8% in Q1, outpaces estimates and China

India’s GDP surged 7.8% in Q1 2025-26, the highest in five quarters, driven by strong services and agriculture sector growth, according to NSO data.

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GDP Growth

India’s economy recorded a sharp growth of 7.8% in the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2025-26, surpassing the earlier estimate of 6.5% and outpacing China’s 5.2% growth in the same period. The figure also marks a notable rise from the 6.5% growth in the corresponding quarter last year, making it the fastest expansion in the last five quarters.

Strong performance across key sectors

According to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the surge was driven primarily by the services sector, which expanded 9.3% compared to 6.8% a year ago, and the agriculture sector, which rose 3.7% against 1.5% last year.

The construction sector, however, witnessed a slowdown, growing 7.6% compared to 10.1% in the same quarter of the previous fiscal.

RBI’s earlier forecast

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had projected a more modest Q1 growth of 6.5%, with overall real GDP growth for 2025-26 expected at 6.5%. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra attributed the positive outlook to favorable conditions, including a good monsoon, lower inflation, and strong government capital expenditure.

He said, “The above normal southwest monsoon, lower inflation, rising capacity utilisation and congenial financial conditions continue to support domestic economic activity. The supportive monetary, regulatory and fiscal policies, including robust government capital expenditure, should also boost demand. The services sector is expected to remain buoyant, with sustained growth in construction and trade in the coming months.”

India remains fastest-growing major economy

With China reporting 5.2% growth in April-June, India has retained its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The latest figures highlight resilience in the face of external pressures, including recent US tariffs on Indian imports.

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