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Is global establishment in for a surprise in France, too?

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Is global establishment in for a surprise in France, too?

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Does Emmanuel Macron’s fate on Election Day resemble Hillary Clinton’s? Only time will provide the correct answer

By Saeed Naqvi

Accustomed either to isolation or global dominance, the US has in recent years been playing a third role. Ever since its power diminished following the 2008 meltdown, it finds itself running around to block political forces which are ascendant everywhere almost independent of its authority.

Brexit happened despite the US. The country itself has a President it did not want. And now, the weight of its establishment is behind the centrist banker, Emmanuel Macron in France. But will that suffice to keep the ultranationalist Marine Le Pen at bay? The falcon cannot see the falconer.

Electoral eruptions are taking place everywhere almost in defiance of American will. In some instances, it is difficult to fathom what possible interest the US might have had in a certain outcome until the truth suddenly leaps out of the thicket, in sharp silhouette.

Why, for instance, would the CIA exert every muscle to support the Right Wing Guillermo Lasso in Ecuador, a country of 16 million people? In the event, a rank Leftist with a menacing name, Lenin Moreno, won.

World affairs these days are sometimes like a game of billiards. That roughly is the effect of Lenin Moreno’s victory in Quito. The consequence of this outcome is that Julian Assange, who controls the nightmare called Wikileaks, now cannot be dispatched to Sweden for trial. He can live for the next few years in the comfort of the Ecuador Embassy in London. That clearly is an affront to the US establishment.

Worse maybe on its way in Mexico, Monroe doctrine or no Monroe doctrine. Come the 2018 elections, President Enrique Nieto will by all accounts be hit for a six, to be replaced by Leftist Lopez Obrador, if not something more radical. The “Building the wall” rhetoric is not the only humiliation that has registered with the Mexican electorate.

So, scramble CIA; reversal in Mexico has to be averted at all costs just as one has to be speeded up in Venezuela.

You may sail the world’s most powerful Armada to threaten Kim Jong-un, but every school boy in Seoul knows that US troops in Panmunjom and at nearby Okinawa Island would be exposed to even hand carried ordnance in the unlikely event of hostilities.

Then why all this bluster on the part of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Vice-President Mike Pence and President Trump himself? The US has patronized many corrupt regimes in Seoul, but the disgrace in which President Park Geun-hye had to leave office has left South Koreans shattered. Is the US influence with the regime that comes in after May 9 elections about to plummet?

Is all this muscle flexing, then mixing hot and cold (Trump says he would meet Kim Jong-un), designed to somehow psyche Korean voting intentions? South Korea is not exempt from anti-Americanism. An outcome conditioned by this factor will clearly be advantageous to China and Russia.

The global establishment is on sixes and sevens on which way the cookie might crumble in France. At the outset, Macron seemed a clever idea, responding to the universal quest for something new, different from the established parties. But as the date of elections approaches, the idea begins to look too clever by half.

A 39-year-old, married to a grandmother, branches out with his own party, En Marche, or March Ahead, has considerable novelty attached to it. But on close scrutiny he is a Rothschild banker, a former member of the most unpopular Francois Hollande government. Establishment to the core. old wine in new bottle. Le Pen tattooed him with punches on that count in the TV debate the other night.

Suddenly imagination transports me to that Dumbo Loft under the Brooklyn Bridge on the evening of November 8. Hillary Clinton was the frontrunner. It was an impressive assembly of World Bankers, State Department officials, artists, journalists, friends Saeed Raza and Nusrat Durrani from Lucknow (to underscore my parochialism), all eager to celebrate a Clinton victory. But we all know what happened. (For the rest of the drama read my November 10 blog.)

Does Macron’s fate on Election Day resemble Clinton’s? The American establishment shows traces of Joseph McCarthy in its DNA at the sight of anything resembling the classical left. Comfort level with a Bertolt Brecht and Arthur Miller is confined to Broadway shows. Little wonder Bernie Sanders was grounded by the Democratic Establishment when he was miles ahead in the race.

In the French campaign, the communist Jean-Luc Melenchon surged with lightening speed, but the French public was witness to his brilliant presentation only towards the end of the campaign. Imagine where he might have been had a viscerally anti-Left media placed the spotlight on him earlier. Even so, he got 20 percent of the first round votes as against Le Pen’s 21 and Macron’s 23 percent.

All sorts of calculations are afoot: if 90 percent of Le Pen’s supporters turned out but only 65 of Macron’s were mobilized, she would win.

The trophy for prescience on the US elections clearly belonged to the filmmaker Michael Moore: “This election is only about who gets who out to vote, who gets the most rabid supporters, the mind of candidate who gets people out of bed at 5.00 am on Election Day.”

Moore added: “So many people have given up on the system because the system has given up on them. They know it is all bullshit: politics, politicians, elections. People want to tear down establishments.” And Macron sadly, is “the” establishment in very thin disguise.

In an insightful piece, Ross Douthat wrote in The New York Times that Le Pen has with great deliberation distanced herself from the anti-Semitism of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen. This brings her closer to the middle.

According to Douthat, “Nobody seriously doubts Le Pen’s competence, her command of policy, her ability to serve as president without turning the office into a Reality TV thunderdrome.” Trump’s inability to master his own turbulent emotions is not an issue with his Gallic counterpart.

In the US, the media (except Fox News) threw its total weight behind Clinton. It had egg on its face. The French media, likewise, is supporting Macron to the hilt. In our perverse times, is that not a good omen for Le Pen?[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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S Jaishankar says India is a natural option for Russia amid Europe tensions

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said India remained a natural option for Russia as Moscow increasingly turned towards Asia amid strained relations with Europe. He highlighted the continuity of India-Russia ties and their significance for the balance of power in Asia.

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External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has described India as a natural option for Russia as Moscow increasingly looks towards Asia amid deteriorating relations with Europe. He said India’s longstanding relationship with Russia had remained steady despite significant changes in the international strategic landscape.

Jaishankar made the remarks during a conversation with John Micklethwait, editor-in-chief of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. He discussed how the Russia-Ukraine war had affected Moscow’s relationship with Europe and contributed to Russia’s growing focus on Asia.

Jaishankar highlights Russia’s shift towards Asia

Jaishankar said Russia’s relationship with Europe had become deeply strained following the Ukraine war. He noted that Russia had historically viewed itself as a European country and placed considerable importance on its relations with Europe and the United States.

However, the conflict had pushed Moscow to look increasingly towards Asia,with much of that shift directed towards China.

The minister said it was in India’s interest, as well as the wider world’s interest, for Russia to maintain multiple relationships in Asia rather than having its options concentrated in one direction.

Against this backdrop, he described India as a natural partner for Russia, pointing to the longstanding nature of the relationship between the two countries.

India-Russia ties remain steady despite global changes

Jaishankar said India and Russia had maintained a consistent relationship over several decades. He emphasised that New Delhi continued to engage with Moscow even as the global order and Russia’s strategic calculations evolved.

According to the minister, India was reassuring Russia that the relationship built over nearly eight decades remained steady despite the changes in Moscow’s relations with Europe and the wider West.

He stressed that India was not passing a value judgment on those changes but was continuing its bilateral engagement with Russia.

Jaishankar said the relationship had benefited both countries and contributed to the balance of power and the broader status quo in Asia. 

Why the relationship matters for Asia

Jaishankar’s remarks highlighted India’s position in Russia’s changing regional outlook. As Moscow increasingly turns towards Asia, India continues to maintain its longstanding ties with Russia while navigating a changing international environment.

The minister’s comments underscored the importance he placed on preserving India-Russia ties and ensuring that Russia maintained multiple relationships in Asia. 

His assessment came against the backdrop of strained Russia-Europe relations following the war in Ukraine, which has reshaped Moscow’s engagement with Western countries and increased its focus on Asian partners.

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Putin praises PM Modi, says he has very good ideas on Ukraine war

Russian President Vladimir Putin has praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi for repeatedly raising the need to end the Ukraine war, describing his ideas for a settlement as “very good”.

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Vladimir Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin has praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his continued efforts to promote an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, saying the Indian leader has “very good ideas” aimed at finding a mutually acceptable solution.

Putin made the remarks while addressing the Valdai Forum of international Russia experts, where he spoke about Modi’s repeated efforts to raise the issue of ending the conflict.

What Putin said about PM Modi

Putin said Modi has continued to raise the question of ending the conflict despite the close and friendly relationship between India and Russia.

According to Putin, the Prime Minister has shown a strong interest in finding a solution and has ideas that could help identify mutually acceptable ways to resolve the conflict.

Putin also described India’s position as neutral while highlighting Modi’s interest in bringing the conflict to an end through peaceful means.

The Russian president expressed gratitude to Modi for his ideas and his desire to see the conflict end as soon as possible.

Modi’s position on the Ukraine war

PM Modi has repeatedly called for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve conflicts, including during his meetings with Putin.

During their September 11 meeting in New Delhi, Modi reiterated that dialogue and diplomacy are the way forward for resolving conflicts.

Modi had also told Putin during their meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek that the situation needed to move from “endless war” towards an end to the war.

India has consistently maintained that conflicts should be addressed through dialogue and peaceful means, with Modi previously describing the present period as not being an era of war.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022 and has continued despite repeated diplomatic efforts to seek a resolution.

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S Jaishankar calls Pakistan a “serial practitioner of terrorism” at UN

S Jaishankar criticised Pakistan at the UN General Assembly, referring to a “serial practitioner of terrorism” and warning against attempts to normalise terrorism.

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S Jayshankar

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar criticised Pakistan during his address to the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, saying that a “serial practitioner of terrorism” had misrepresented facts and that arguments were being made to normalise terrorism. 

Jaishankar’s remarks came a day after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif addressed the UN General Assembly and spoke about the 2025 military confrontation between India and Pakistan.

Jaishankar’s message to Pakistan

Referring to Pakistan without naming it directly in that remark, Jaishankar said a “serial practitioner of terrorism” had misrepresented facts before the UN General Assembly.

He said arguments were being made to normalise terrorism and claim immunity from its consequences, adding that such an approach would not stand. 

Jaishankar reiterated India’s position that the country would exercise its right to defend itself against terrorism.

He also said that friendship and goodwill could not coexist with terrorism and that understandings based on such circumstances would naturally be called into question. 

“It is for the perpetrator of terrorism to mend its ways,” Jaishankar said.

India stresses zero tolerance on terrorism

Jaishankar described terrorism as a persistent threat to peace and called for governments involved in cross-border terrorism to be held accountable.

He also stressed that there should be no dilution in India’s zero-tolerance approach towards terrorism and particularly called for greater attention to its financial aspects.

His remarks came a day after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif referred to the 2025 India-Pakistan military confrontation during his UN General Assembly address. 

Jaishankar backs two-state solution for Palestine

During his UN address, Jaishankar also spoke about the situation in West Asia and said India was prepared to contribute to efforts addressing food and energy security amid continuing tensions and violence.

On the Palestine issue, he reiterated India’s longstanding support for a two-state solution.

Jaishankar said India was also contributing humanitarian assistance and relief efforts for the Palestinian people.

He also warned about continuing threats and pressures around the world and stressed the need for greater stability, security and predictability.

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