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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

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6 years ago

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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Monsoon rains are expected to be average in 2018 with ‘zero chance’ of a drought, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 100 per cent of the long-term average, Skymet tweeted. Average, or normal, rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) – a 50-year average which is around 887 millimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The  government’s India Meteorological Department will come out with its preliminary monsoon forecast in mid-April but has indicated that the chances of an El Nino disrupting monsoon are slim. The El Nino, an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with weak monsoons.

“2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent [with an error margin of +/-5 per cent] of the long period average [LPA] of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” said Skymet.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

So, while the rains would be ‘normal’ overall, farmers may have some reason for worry: June is likely to receive excess rainfall, but there is, on average, a 30 per cent chance that the key months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ – more than 10% deficit in their normal quotas – rains. July and August cover the crucial sowing and post-sowing season. These months bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expected that Peninsular India along with major portion of northeast India was likely to be at “higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season”.

About the pre-monsoon heat across the country, Skymet said it “is a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon”.

“Similar conditions are presently prevailing across the country. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving the way for intense heat before the onset of monsoon.”

Last year, India got 95 per cent of its normal monsoon quota. June and July got more than their usual quota while August and September saw significant deficits.

Skymet also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

Besides ‘normal’, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season, ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.

There are 20 per cent chances of above normal which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA.

Chances of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, are 55 per cent.

Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, are 20 per cent.

There is “0 per cent chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA”, the forecaster said.

Giving month-wise details, Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall.

July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal. The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August.

In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy and helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources.

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the IMD’s forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon started well in June and July but there was an extended break from August till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. Around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 southwest monsoon season. Three state governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts officially declared drought.

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SIT issues lookout notice for Prajwal Revanna in obscene video case

A police officer, who is part of the SIT, confirmed to the media that a lookout circular has been issued at all the immigration points to detain Prajwal Revanna, said to be in Germany, as soon as he enters the country.

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May 2, 2024

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The Special Investigation Team (SIT), probing the sex tapes case involving JD(S) Lok Sabha candidate Prajwal Revanna, on Thursday issued a lookout notice against him. The notice was issued at all immigration points all over the world. The development comes as Revanna allegedly fled to Frankfurt, Germany on April 26, as a huge cache of explicit videos and photographs showing him indulging in the sexual abuse of several women went viral on social media platforms.

Prajwal Revanna is the grandson of former prime minister and JD(S) patriarch HD Deve Gowda and son of former minister HD Revanna, is seeking re-election from Hassan on the JD(S) ticket. The JD(S) MP faces sexual assault charges and has sought 7 days to appear before the Special Investigation Team probing the matter.

Prajwal Revanna and his father, DD Revanna have been issued notices to appear before the SIT for questioning. The Hassan MP informed the SIT team that he is currently outside Bengaluru. A case has been registered against both HD Revanna and his son Prajwal Revanna at Holenarasipura based on a complaint lodged by their former cook and relative for sexually harassing her.

She alleged that Prajwal Revanna made video calls to her daughter and spoke in an objectionable manner, which forced her to block his phone number. The FIR was referred to the SIT, led by BK Singh, Additional Director-General of Police, Criminal Investigation Department, formed to probe the alleged sex scandal involving Prajwal Revanna, after many explicit videos were circulated on social media.

The National Commission for Women (NCW) has demanded a comprehensive report within 3 days from the Karnataka Police regarding allegations of sexual misconduct against Prajwal Revanna. The NCW expressed grave concern over the circulation of a number of obscene videos on social media, which showed Prajwal Revanna sexually assaulting number of women.

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PM Modi takes a dig at Rahul Gandhi, says Pakistan wants him as Prime Minister

PM Modi said Pakistan is eager to make the prince the Prime Minister and everyone knows that the Congress is a fan of Pakistan. The prime minister further added that the partnership between Pakistan and Congress has now been completely exposed.

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2 hours ago

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May 2, 2024

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi took a veiled dig at Rahul Gandhi on Thursday. He was addressing an election rally in Gujarat’s Anand where PM Modi said, Congress is dying here and Pakistanis are crying. He further added that Pakistani leaders want to make shehzada of Congress the prime minister of India.

He said everyone should look at the coincidence that today the Congress is getting weak in India and Pakistani leaders at the same time are praying for the grand old party. PM Modi said Pakistan is eager to make the prince the Prime Minister and everyone knows that the Congress is a fan of Pakistan. The prime minister further added that the partnership between Pakistan and Congress has now been completely exposed.

A few days earlier Pakistani leader Chaudhary Fawad Hussain had shared a video on X which featured Rahul Gandhi, in which the Congress leader is seen targetting the BJP and PM Modi. In the video shared by the former Pakistan minister, rahul Gandhi can be seen attacking the BJP government over the invitees at Ram Mandir’s Pran Pratishtha ceremony.

The edited video shows Rahul Gandhi speaking about the Ram Mandir’s inauguration and charging the BJP government of sidelining the interests of the poor and youth.  PM Modi further added at the Anand rally that Congress Shahzade is dancing around with the Constitution on their foreheads. But for 75 years, this did not apply to all parts of Hindustan. The Constitution was not applicable in Kashmir, where Article 370 was like a wall that the BJP government had demolished.

The Prime Minister said it is his guarantee that he will work 24×7 to make India a developed country by 2047. He pointed out that in the last 10 years, the BJP government has given tap water connections to 14 crore houses, while the Congress gave just 3 crore houses in 60 years.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Farooq Abdullah accuses PM Modi of trying to divide the country over religion

Faroukh Abdullah reacted to PM Modi’s remark that the Congress will redistribute people’s money and property to Muslims if voted to power and said Muslims respect all religions. He said that they are Muslims and Allah has told them to respect other religions. He further added that a Muslim cannot snatch anyone’s right.

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19 hours ago

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May 1, 2024

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Farooq Abdullah, Jammu and Kashmir’s National Conference President said on Wednesday that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was trying to divide the country over religion. He also said that those who will vote for them must prepare for hell. Farooq Abdullah said Muslims cannot snatch away the rights of others.

Farooq Abdullah also called Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government a threat to the survival of the country. Omar Abdullah, former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister cautioned the people not to divide this country on the basis of religion, otherwise a storm will unleash making the survival of the nation difficult. He said it is better to talk about uniting the country, instead of dividing its people.

He was addressing an election rally in Thanamandi area of the Rajouri district in Jammu and Kashmir. The Anantnag parliamentary constituency will go for elections on May 25. Faroukh Abdullah reacted to PM Modi’s remark that the Congress will redistribute people’s money and property to Muslims if voted to power and said Muslims respect all religions. He said that they are Muslims and Allah has told them to respect other religions. He further added that a Muslim cannot snatch anyone’s right.

He remembered an incident when former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi once stopped his car in Pulwama and assured a poor Hindu woman that he would give her a mangalsutra as she could not afford it. Farooq Abdullah said those who were against the INDIA bloc are against the nation.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier sparked a controversy last month as he commented that the Congress would take away the hard-earned money of the masses and distribute them among infiltrators and those with many children.  Speaking at a rally today, the Prime Minister took a jibe at the Congress and said the governments in the past were not able to implement the Indian Constitution in Jammu and Kashmir. He was referring to the revocation of Article 370.

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