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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Monsoon rains are expected to be average in 2018 with ‘zero chance’ of a drought, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 100 per cent of the long-term average, Skymet tweeted. Average, or normal, rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) – a 50-year average which is around 887 millimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The  government’s India Meteorological Department will come out with its preliminary monsoon forecast in mid-April but has indicated that the chances of an El Nino disrupting monsoon are slim. The El Nino, an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with weak monsoons.

“2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent [with an error margin of +/-5 per cent] of the long period average [LPA] of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” said Skymet.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

So, while the rains would be ‘normal’ overall, farmers may have some reason for worry: June is likely to receive excess rainfall, but there is, on average, a 30 per cent chance that the key months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ – more than 10% deficit in their normal quotas – rains. July and August cover the crucial sowing and post-sowing season. These months bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expected that Peninsular India along with major portion of northeast India was likely to be at “higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season”.

About the pre-monsoon heat across the country, Skymet said it “is a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon”.

“Similar conditions are presently prevailing across the country. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving the way for intense heat before the onset of monsoon.”

Last year, India got 95 per cent of its normal monsoon quota. June and July got more than their usual quota while August and September saw significant deficits.

Skymet also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

Besides ‘normal’, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season, ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.

There are 20 per cent chances of above normal which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA.

Chances of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, are 55 per cent.

Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, are 20 per cent.

There is “0 per cent chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA”, the forecaster said.

Giving month-wise details, Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall.

July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal. The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August.

In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy and helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources.

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the IMD’s forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon started well in June and July but there was an extended break from August till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. Around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 southwest monsoon season. Three state governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts officially declared drought.

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Jammu and Kashmir: CRPF vans damaged, stones hurled amid protests against Vaishno Devi ropeway project

The residents have been complaining that the project would negatively impact the environment and their livelihoods.

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Jammu and Kashmir: CRPF vans damaged, stones hurled amid protests against Vaishno Devi ropeway project

Massive violence broke out in Jammu and Kashmir’s Katra after the protestors pelted stones and clashed with the security forces during their protests against the proposed ropeway project along the trek route to the holy shrine of Vaishno Devi atop Trikuta hills. 

Reports said that the protestors hurled stones at the security personnel and damaged a CRPF vehicle. Paramvir Singh, Reasi SSP told media that the protest was going on peacefully for the past three days but on Monday some protesters pelted stones at the security forces. 

In Jammu and Kashmir’s Katra, the shopkeepers and labourers on Sunday took out a protest rally on the third day of their strike and held a sit-in outside the office of the subdivisional magistrate and Shalimar Park in Katra, the base camp for pilgrims visiting the shrine. 

A member of the joint committee of shopkeepers and pony and palanquin owners had said that the 72-hour strike has been extended by another 24 hours, adding that they will meet again and announce our future course of action. Notably, the three-day strike called by them began on Friday. 

Reports stated that while the businesses located at the base camp of Katra remained operational, shops lining the pilgrimage route from Ban Ganga to Charan Paduka observed closures. Nonetheless, the suspension of pony and palanquin services is causing hardships for the pilgrims, especially the elderly and differently-abled, to continue their sacred journey.

The residents have been complaining that the project would negatively impact the environment and their livelihoods. They asserted that the ropeway project would render them jobless, and also accused the authorities of pushing through the development without adequate consultation.

Meanwhile, Jammu and Kashmir Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha has assured the protestors of their employment. He mentioned that the committee headed by the Divisional Commissioner has been deliberating on the ropeway project and the rehabilitation of the locals. Furthermore, he also emphasised that the genuine concerns of the locals would be considered while the development of the region would not be ignored.

The Shri Mata Vaishno Devi Shrine Board (SMVDSB) had announced implementation of the long-awaited ropeway project to facilitate a safer and faster journey for the pilgrims. As per the project details, the ropeway will be developed with a cost of Rs 250 crore between Tarakote Marg to Sanji Chhat along the 12-kilometre track.

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Delhi Pollution: GRAP IV restrictions to continue in national capital, says Supreme Court

The court also pulled up the Delhi Police over no checkpoints at the borders of the city for checking the pollution measures and said that it was a serious lapse.

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Delhi Pollution: GRAP IV restrictions to continue in national capital, says Supreme Court

The Supreme Court on Monday refused to relax GRAP IV measures in Delhi and ordered the CAQM to consider relaxing norms for students. The apex court observed that several students cannot avail midday meals, online classes and cannot access air purifiers.

The court also pulled up the Delhi Police over no checkpoints at the borders of the city for checking the pollution measures and said that it was a serious lapse. A bench headed by Justice AS Oka stated that they would consider prosecution of the Delhi Police Commissioner under the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) Act for deploying police personnel at only 23 checkpoints, when Stage 4 of the GRAP was implemented.

Earlier, the court has also appointed 13 members from the court as commissioners to check whether the GRAP IV measures are being implemented or not. On Monday, the commissioners submitted their report to the court.

Subsequently, the court told the Delhi government that there were no checkposts at borders of the city and that the ban on trucks entering into the capital was not being followed properly.

The top court bench said that they were informed that no police or government personnel were present at the border checkpoints, and they were only manned by toll collection staff of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi. Mentioning that they will direct prosecution against all officials, the court questioned why the police were not directed to take action under Stage IV of the GRAP.

Responding, Advocate Shadan Farasat representing the Delhi government said that the CAQM had issued directions. Consecutively, the court asked him to show what written instructions were given by the state and the central government to the police on November 18. To this, Advocate Farasat said that directions were issued to post police personnel at 23 checkpoints where trucks could enter the city.

The court continued that this was negligence, adding that it will direct CAQM to prosecute the Delhi Police Commissioner.

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Maharashtra elections: Ajit Pawar criticises Sharad Pawar’s decision to field Yugender Pawar against him

Ajit Pawar said that Yugendra is a business person, and he had no connection with politics.

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Maharashtra elections: Ajit Pawar criticises Sharad Pawar’s decision to field Yugender Pawar against him

After the Maharashtra Assembly Elections results, NCP leader Ajit Pawar criticized NCP faction led by Sharad Pawar for its decision to field his nephew Yugender Pawar against him in the family bastion of Baramati. Ajit Pawar also mentioned that his decision to field wife Sunetra Pawar against his sister Supriya Sule in the Lok Sabha election was a mistake. 

Sharad Pawar led NCP had fielded Yugender Pawar, son of Ajit Pawar’s elder brother Shrinivas Anantrao Pawar, in the Baramati Assembly segment. The constituency was represented by Sharad Pawar for over two decades, followed by Ajit Pawar for over three. In this assembly election, 33-year-old Yugendra Pawar was backed by Sharad Pawar and four-time Baramati MP Supriya Sule. However, Yugender Pawar lost out against his formidable uncle by a margin of over 1 lakh votes.

While addressing the media, Ajit Pawar said that Yugendra is a business person, and he had no connection with politics. He added that there was no reason to field his own nephew against him in the elections.

Earlier in the Lok Sabha elections 2024, Ajit Pawar had fielded his wife Sunetra Pawar against his cousin and Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule, who won the contest by a 1.5 lakh votes margin. Later, Ajit Pawar admitted that it was a mistake.

Sharad Pawar had defended the decision to field Yugendra Pawar, mentioning that someone had to contest the polls. He had also said there was no comparison between Ajit Pawar and Yugendra Pawar. 

Notably, a 2023 rebellion led by Ajit Pawar against his uncle split the NCP founded by Sharad Pawar. Since then, the senior Pawar has been fighting to win his party’s name and symbol back. 

Previously In the Lok Sabha election, the veteran had trumped his nephew, with his faction winning 8 seats compared to Ajit Pawar’s score of 1. However this time, the tables turned as NCP (Sharad Pawar) scored 10, but Ajit Pawar’s party won 41.

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