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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

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8 years ago

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India to get average monsoon this year, zero chance of drought: Skymet

Monsoon rains are expected to be average in 2018 with ‘zero chance’ of a drought, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 100 per cent of the long-term average, Skymet tweeted. Average, or normal, rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) – a 50-year average which is around 887 millimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The  government’s India Meteorological Department will come out with its preliminary monsoon forecast in mid-April but has indicated that the chances of an El Nino disrupting monsoon are slim. The El Nino, an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with weak monsoons.

“2018 is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent [with an error margin of +/-5 per cent] of the long period average [LPA] of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September,” said Skymet.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” Skymet Weather said in a statement. “The onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September give a promising picture in terms of good countrywide rainfall distribution. Meanwhile, July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall. To be precise, August would be a shade poorer than July,” it added.

So, while the rains would be ‘normal’ overall, farmers may have some reason for worry: June is likely to receive excess rainfall, but there is, on average, a 30 per cent chance that the key months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ – more than 10% deficit in their normal quotas – rains. July and August cover the crucial sowing and post-sowing season. These months bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expected that Peninsular India along with major portion of northeast India was likely to be at “higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season”.

About the pre-monsoon heat across the country, Skymet said it “is a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon”.

“Similar conditions are presently prevailing across the country. In fact, weathermen are of the view that pre-monsoon season would be slightly below normal, paving the way for intense heat before the onset of monsoon.”

Last year, India got 95 per cent of its normal monsoon quota. June and July got more than their usual quota while August and September saw significant deficits.

Skymet also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

Besides ‘normal’, Skymet drew up three more scenarios likely for the season, ranging from below normal to excess rainfall with an error margin of plus-minus 5 per cent.

There are 20 per cent chances of above normal which is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA.

Chances of normal, which is seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, are 55 per cent.

Below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, are 20 per cent.

There is “0 per cent chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA”, the forecaster said.

Giving month-wise details, Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall.

July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal. The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August.

In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy and helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources.

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the IMD’s forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon started well in June and July but there was an extended break from August till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. Around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 southwest monsoon season. Three state governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts officially declared drought.

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Siddaramaiah snaps at Youth Congress sloganeering for DK Shivakumar during protest rally

Siddaramaiah lost his temper at a Congress protest rally after Youth Congress workers raised slogans supporting deputy CM D K Shivakumar while he was about to speak.

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3 hours ago

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January 27, 2026

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Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah on Tuesday lost his cool during a Congress protest rally after Youth Congress workers repeatedly raised slogans in favour of Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar while he was preparing to address the gathering.

The incident took place at a demonstration organised by the ruling Congress to oppose the Centre’s decision to replace the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) with a new rural employment initiative titled Viksit Bharat Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajivika Mission (Gramin) (VB-G RAM G).

Senior Congress leaders, including Shivakumar, party general secretary Randeep Singh Surjewala, ministers, Members of Parliament and legislators, were present at the rally.

As Siddaramaiah stood up from his seat and walked towards the podium, a section of party workers began chanting “DK, DK”, referring to the deputy chief minister. The sloganeering grew louder as the chief minister reached the stage.

Visibly annoyed, Siddaramaiah asked the workers to stop shouting. When the slogans continued, he sharply questioned party leaders on the stage, asking, “Who are those shouting ‘DK, DK’?”

The compere intervened, urging the Youth Congress workers to maintain silence while the chief minister addressed the rally. Despite the appeal, attempts to interrupt Siddaramaiah reportedly continued even after he began speaking.

Power struggle backdrop within Karnataka Congress

The episode comes amid ongoing speculation about a power struggle within the Karnataka Congress, with several MLAs and MLCs openly expressing support for Shivakumar. The internal dynamics between the two senior leaders have repeatedly drawn public attention since the party came to power in the state.

Both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar have earlier stated that they would abide by the decision of the party high command regarding leadership matters.

The chief minister has also asserted on multiple occasions that he enjoys the backing of the high command and is confident of completing the full five-year term in office.

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Shankaracharya–Yogi row intensifies as Ayodhya GST officer resigns in protest

The Shankaracharya–Yogi Adityanath row has escalated after an Ayodhya GST officer resigned, backing the Uttar Pradesh government amid the Magh Mela controversy and UGC rule debate.

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3 hours ago

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January 27, 2026

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Shankaracharya yogi Adityanath

Resignation comes amid heated exchange between Shankaracharya Swami Avimukteshwaranand Saraswati and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath over Magh Mela incident and wider political issues

The confrontation between Shankaracharya Swami Avimukteshwaranand Saraswati and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath has escalated further with the resignation of an Ayodhya-based bureaucrat, who said he stepped down in support of the government, the Constitution and democratic values.

The row began earlier this month after the Shankaracharya and his supporters alleged they were prevented from taking a holy dip at the Sangam in Prayagraj during the Magh Mela. The local administration, however, maintained that the seer’s chariot procession was stopped to avoid the risk of a stampede in the crowded area and that he was asked to proceed on foot like other devotees.

Terming the incident an insult, the Shankaracharya launched a protest, leading to a sharp verbal exchange with the chief minister. Without naming him, Yogi Adityanath cautioned people against figures like “Kalanemi”, a demon from the Ramayana who disguised himself as a saint to deceive Lord Hanuman.

Responding to the remark, the Shankaracharya said the chief minister, now a politician, should focus on governance and leave religious matters to seers. He questioned the appropriateness of a chief minister discussing religious symbolism instead of issues such as education, health, law and order, and economic development.

The Shankaracharya also weighed in on the controversy surrounding newly notified University Grants Commission rules that propose special committees, helplines and monitoring teams to address complaints, particularly from SC, ST and OBC students. Critics have argued that the framework could result in discrimination against general category students.

Speaking to media, the Shankaracharya criticised the approach, stating that injustice cannot be attributed to an entire caste and warning that pitting one caste against another could harm Hindu society. He called for the rules to be withdrawn.

Ayodhya GST officer quits citing ‘insult’ to elected leadership

On Tuesday, Ayodhya deputy GST commissioner Prashant Kumar Singh tendered his resignation, saying he could not tolerate what he described as an insult to the chief minister, the Prime Minister and other constitutional authorities.

In a statement, Singh said he had resigned in accordance with service rules and out of loyalty to the government, adding that he was deeply hurt by what he termed unrestrained comments aimed at dividing society. He said the government had provided him livelihood and that he could not continue in service while remaining silent.

Singh alleged that personal remarks were made against the chief minister and emphasised that Yogi Adityanath is a democratically elected leader. He also said he was troubled by what he described as political motives behind the debate over the UGC rules.

The officer stated that once his resignation is accepted, he plans to take up social work.

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Cricket news

Scotland announce squad for T20 World Cup 2026 after Bangladesh exit

Scotland have named a 15-member squad for the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 after being included in the tournament following Bangladesh’s exit.

Published

13 hours ago

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January 27, 2026

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Scotland cricket team

Scotland on Monday announced its 15-member squad for the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026, scheduled to begin on February 7 and jointly hosted by India and Sri Lanka.

The European side was added to the tournament after the International Cricket Council replaced Bangladesh, following the Bangladesh Cricket Board’s decision not to send its team to India due to security concerns. Scotland will be led by Richie Berrington, who has previously captained the side in major international tournaments.

Scotland have featured in six of the nine editions of the T20 World Cup so far, having participated in the 2007, 2009, 2016, 2021, 2022 and 2024 editions.

Squad balance and new faces

Along with the main squad, Scotland also named two travelling reserves and three non-travelling reserves for the marquee event.

Cricket Scotland’s head of performance Steve Snell expressed confidence in the squad’s balance and preparation for sub-continent conditions. He said the selected group offers flexibility for different match situations and challenges expected in India.

Snell also highlighted opportunities for younger players, particularly pacer Zainullah Ihsan, who has impressed at youth and ‘A’ team levels with his pace and skill set. He added that Oliver Davidson earned his place through consistent effort and improvement over recent months.

According to Snell, the players are motivated to compete against the world’s best and are eager to make an impact on the global stage.

Group C fixtures and opening match

Scotland have been placed in Group C, alongside England, Italy, Nepal and the West Indies. Their campaign will begin on February 7 with an opening fixture against the West Indies at Eden Gardens.

Scotland squad for ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026

Squad:
Richie Berrington (captain), Tom Bruce, Matthew Cross, Bradley Currie, Oliver Davidson, Chris Greaves, Zainullah Ihsan, Michael Jones, Michael Leask, Finlay McCreath, Brandon McMullen, George Munsey, Safyaan Sharif, Mark Watt, Bradley Wheal

Travelling reserves:
Jasper Davidson, Jack Jarvis

Non-travelling reserves:
Mackenzie Jones, Chris McBride, Charlie Tear

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