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5 state elections: Exit poll projections range from a farce to the far-fetched

Pollsters run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advice “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets.

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By Neeraj Mishra

Every year, some states have elections and every year, a farcical drama is played out on television channels, for days adding up to the actual counting hour. Familiar faces create and discuss highly improbable situations, stereotyped characters indulge in violence of words and extravagant exaggeration.

It is all aimed at creating confusion in the voter’s mind, infusing satta markets with more punters and general joy at the expense of viewers. This year is no different. India Today thinks the BJP can get 162 seats in Madhya Pradesh bettering its previous tally by more than 50. It does not pause to think why and how this is possible. The perceived anti-incumbency of 20 years has been turned on its head and a Gujarat-like result is possible without a similar communal situation or voter mindset.

At the same time, there are three other channels which think it’s a close race giving an average of only 100 seats to the BJP, 16 short of majority. Psephology is now a full time business with at least a dozen big companies that employ innumerable fake scientists.

Some of these companies have taken this to the next level like Prashant Kishor. They run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advise “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets. Clearly, winning is the only thing that matters as stakes are too high and the prize is control over the entire system at the state level.

Back to the exit polls though, the song on Chhattisgarh is quite identical in every channel. Every psephologist worth his salt knows that the BJP was so far behind in 2018 at 15 seats compared to the Congress’ 70 that to recover and beat it would be next to impossible, so every channel has the Congress ahead. But in a house of 90 to say that BJP will get between 36-46 seats and Congress will get 40-50 seats is a joke at the very least.

It would mean both parties are forming the government and the researcher is not sure so he has played safe. Keeping a two per cent margin in predictions is absolutely unacceptable here, since traditionally the difference between the two parties has been less than 2 per cent, except in 2018. Even a 0.75 per cent difference in votes can lead to a BJP-50 and Congress-38 situation in 2013. So to say, the BJP can get between 36 to 46 seats is absurd.

It’s the difference between losing and forming the government. After having covered more than two dozen elections, one has seen that the safest way to predict results is based on the prevailing mood about three months before the elections are announced. Barring something as drastic as Pulwama, people are unlikely to change their mind at the last moment.

So to say all along the campaign period that such and such party is improving its position is mostly low conjecture. Another noticeable thing in this elections has been the freebies on offer by sitting governments in all states. Shivraj Singh Chouhan beat them all by announcing he would give Rs 3000 per month to every married woman if voted back to power.

He even delivered two installments during the campaign period while the Election Commission did nothing about it, it did stop K. Chandrashekhar Rao from dispensing his pro-farmer cash. So have the labharthis (beneficiaries) then appropriated this round of elections? They certainly have caused a major rift among psephologists.

The wide difference in their predictions is perhaps also caused by which set of Labharthi they talked to. Labharthis also tend to aggregate their votes regionally. For instance in famine-ridden Bundelkhand in Madhya Pradesh, Rs 3000 means a lot but not so much in more affluent Malwa-Nimad.

The Congress’ offer of loan waiver may trump the BJP’s offer of Rs 12000 per annum to every woman over 18 in the Chhattisgarh plains but in the hilly tribal areas, it still rings a bell. Exit poll is an effective salve to pacify nervous candidates and supporters. No one really remembers or credits the channels with anything even if they were spot on. It is only a three-day carnival and should be treated as such. Real life happens on counting day.

India News

Delhi to install 305 mist sprayers across 9 major pollution hotspots

Chief Minister Rekha Gupta announced that 305 mist sprayers will be installed across nine pollution hotspots in Delhi, alongside expert-led planning and coordinated measures to reduce dust and biomass-related pollution.

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Delhi-NCR air quality

The Delhi government has announced a large-scale deployment of mist sprayer technology to tackle rising air pollution, with Chief Minister Rekha Gupta confirming that 305 mist sprayers will be installed across nine pollution hotspots in the capital.

Mist sprayers to curb dust at critical locations

During an inspection at ITO, Gupta said the mist sprayers already operational at the site are performing effectively. She noted that 35 poles at ITO have been fitted with these machines, which are helping suppress dust—a major contributor to air pollution in Delhi.

According to the Chief Minister, trials conducted in certain NDMC areas have shown promising results, reinforcing confidence in the technology.

High-level committee to guide pollution-control measures

Gupta announced the formation of a high-level expert committee that will advise the government on effective measures to reduce pollution. The panel will include senior officials from various departments as well as environmental specialists, including experts from IITs. Officials stated that the committee will receive special powers to implement pollution-mitigation strategies.

Departments directed to repair roads, add greenery

The Chief Minister said departments including PWD, DSIIDC and DDA have been instructed to fix potholes, repair and carpet roads, plant foliage along dividers and islands, and take other measures to reduce pollution sources.

She urged residents to report potholes on the government portal for quicker action.

Appeal to RWAs to prevent biomass burning

To curb winter pollution, Gupta advised Resident Welfare Associations (RWAs) to distribute electric heaters to security guards to discourage biomass burning, which significantly contributes to seasonal pollution spikes.

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India News

PM Modi welcomes Vladimir Putin with warm hug as Russian President begins India visit

Russian President Vladimir Putin began a high-profile visit to India on Thursday, welcomed by PM Narendra Modi as both nations prepare to discuss defence, energy and trade cooperation.

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Vladimir Putin rides in Indian PM Narendra Modi's car on India visit

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi on Thursday evening for a 27-hour visit focused on strengthening defence, energy and trade cooperation. The visit, marked by a warm embrace and a brief car ride shared with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, underscores the continuity of the India-Russia strategic partnership amid shifting global geopolitics.

Putin receives ceremonial welcome and packed schedule ahead

Putin landed in Delhi around 6:35 pm, where PM Modi personally received him at Palam airport. The two leaders shared a hug before leaving together, with the Prime Minister set to host a private dinner in honour of the visiting President — a reciprocal gesture to the hospitality extended during Modi’s Moscow visit last year.

On Friday, Putin will begin his official engagements with a ceremonial welcome at Rashtrapati Bhavan, followed by a visit to Rajghat to pay homage to Mahatma Gandhi. He is also scheduled to attend the India-Russia Annual Summit at Hyderabad House, where both sides will hold a working lunch.

The Russian President will later inaugurate a new India-based channel of Russia’s state broadcaster and attend a state banquet hosted by President Droupadi Murmu, before departing India on Friday night.

Defence, energy and trade to dominate agenda

Officials have indicated that discussions will centre on defence, energy and trade — the three pillars of the bilateral relationship. Agreements are expected across sectors including shipping, healthcare, fertilisers and connectivity.

Ahead of the summit, defence ministers from both countries held extensive talks, covering additional procurement of S-400 air defence systems and delayed military hardware shipments affected by the Ukraine war. The S-400 platform, procured under a USD 5 billion deal, played a major role during Operation Sindoor.

The Kremlin has also hinted that Russia may propose the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet, which would put Moscow in direct competition with Western aircraft makers.

Energy ties face renewed pressure

India remains among the largest buyers of discounted Russian crude. However, fresh US sanctions on key Russian oil producers have led to a dip in purchases.

Putin’s visit also comes at a time of strain in India-US ties, with Washington recently imposing steep tariffs on Indian goods — including measures linked directly to India’s continued oil trade with Russia.

Massive security deployment in Delhi

Delhi Police have stationed over 5,000 personnel across central and New Delhi districts, supported by SWAT teams, anti-terror units, snipers, quick-reaction teams, anti-drone systems, HD-CCTV networks and layered surveillance measures for the visit.

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India News

Rahul Gandhi attacks Centre ahead of Vladimir Putin’s India visit

Rahul Gandhi alleged that the government discourages visiting foreign dignitaries from meeting Opposition leaders, calling it a sign of “insecurity,” hours before Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in Delhi.

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Rahul Gandhi

As Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in Delhi today for the India-Russia Annual Summit, Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi has renewed his charge that the Centre discourages visiting foreign leaders from meeting Opposition representatives. He called it a sign of “insecurity” within the government.

Rahul Gandhi alleges break in long-followed tradition

Speaking outside Parliament, Rahul Gandhi said that it has traditionally been the norm for visiting foreign leaders to meet the Leader of the Opposition, a practice he claims continued during the tenures of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh.

He alleged that the present government advises foreign dignitaries against such meetings. “When foreign leaders come, the government suggests they should not meet the Leader of the Opposition. This is their policy,” Gandhi said. He added that a meeting with the Opposition offers visiting leaders a broader perspective, as “we too represent India.”

Gandhi further stated that this approach reflects the government’s reluctance to allow engagement between the Opposition and foreign guests.

Former Foreign Secretary counters Gandhi’s remarks

Responding to Gandhi’s allegations, former Foreign Secretary and Rajya Sabha MP Harsh Vardhan Shringla said visiting leaders operate on very tight schedules and there is no protocol mandating a meeting with the Leader of the Opposition. He stressed that such interactions depend entirely on the guest’s time and preference, noting that the required meetings are those with the President and the Prime Minister.

Putin’s schedule packed with bilateral engagements

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to land in Delhi this evening on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invitation. His itinerary includes:

  • A private dinner with PM Modi
  • Visit to Mahatma Gandhi’s memorial at Raj Ghat
  • Engagements at Bharat Mandapam and Hyderabad House
  • A banquet hosted by President Droupadi Murmu

The visit forms part of the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit.

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