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8.5 per cent GDP growth needed over several years for India’s transformation: Speakers at Swadesh Conclave 2025

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Retired JNU Economics Professor Arun Kumar on Wednesday said India needs high rates of growth over the next few years at 8.5 per cent to become a developed nation by 2047.

Speaking at Swadesh Conclave 2025’s Transforming Bharat through Commerce, Industry & Technology in New Delhi, Kumar said the income per capita should be $14000, it is around $2700 in India now. “We need high rates of growth at 8.5 per cent to grow demand and jobs and all of this has to be equitable.”

Speaking on the economic structure, he said employment is a big issue. Women also face unemployment. Only 6 per cent people work in organised sector, the rest in unorganised sector, and it is not contributing to demand. This is why the disparity.

If demand from unorganised sector goes up, even organised sector will grow fast. Currently, growth is dependent on 10 per cent of organised sector.

Decades ago, China focused on the rural areas and unorganised sector so that demand can be constant and drive growth. It has invested heavily in R&D and has reaped great growth. We need to do that also. For this, we need a good education, Kumar said.

US President Donald Trump is showing the raw, tough face of capitalism. The West won intellectual property rights through the WTO but the soft face of capitalism is gone. Now, the tough face will face a market crash like they did in the late 1920s.

Transformation through technology is being hastened by AI. It has changed blue-collar jobs in technology such as car factories and will threaten white-collar jobs now, such as journalists, doctors and more.

Physicist & JNU Professor of Econophysics Anirban Chakrabarti said an interdisciplinary approach is needed to combat challenges, including climate change which is causing cloudbursts and droughts at the same time. This will need experts from various sciences to come together.

He said there has been a boom in AI with students taking admission in courses to study it. It is important to understand all aspects of the entire system.

Explaining how AI can help, he said one can record data and use machine learning to see trends. “If we can predict price volatility via ML tools, it will help small farmers to decide what crops to sow. I can tell how market is moving and the volatility the farmers can face, help them make well-informed choices.”

He said many regulatory bodies including RBI, SEBI using AI-ML to predict trends etc so that India can be transformed into a developed nation by 2047.  

OTBL Chairperson (retd) Sushma Rawat thanked the organisers for holding the Conclave in an effort to bridge the gap between people over the transformation technology and AI can bring about.

She said she joined ONGC in 1989 as a geologist, was in ONGC to explore oil reserves and other group companies. Recalling the story of oil in India, she said oil was first in Assam’s Digboi in 1889 when they found sticky substance on elephants’ legs. It was a held belief in the West and among people that oil was only in Assam, India. After Independence, we struck oil off Gujarat in 1959 under the ONGC, she said.

Rawat called upon the dignitaries and attendees at the gathering to have belief in oneself and one’s nation. Recalling the transformation in technology across the ages, she said, “I had a 386 computer in 1990, then Sun Microsystems, now all talk is of AI, IoT, data analytics. The changes have been gradual and not sudden. For instance, the mobile phone is a guru and can answer almost all our queries. It will grow further exponentially.”

She told the youngsters at the event to remain curious and keep on learning.

Differing with Prof Arun Kumar’s AI predictions, Supreme Court Senior Advocate Shri Pradeep Rai said AI will not take away all the core functions of doctors, lawyers and journalists. AI will be of help but cannot investigate, for instance, like journalists can, he said.

Blinkit, Google Pay etc were things which could not be imagined in earlier times, all innovations brought through by technology, said Rai.

The virtual hearings in courts during the pandemic were done because of the availability of technology. It has become commonplace now, making distances a remote thing of the past, Rai noted.

The Senior Advocate said the monopoly of US companies will be a problem. He cited an instance where Google refused to share data with Apple until the court forced them to. Without data, there is no AI, he added.

Kerala State Financial Enterprises Ltd (KSFE) Managing Director SK Sanil said micro-finance institutions are needed for the welfare of the poor. Bangladesh’s Mohammad Yunus and his Grameen Bank have been a success in that country. The innovation which made a great impact won him the Nobel Prize. Micro financing can help the poor and the needy in the drive to transform the country.

In her address, Balaji Foundation Chairperson Smt. Rajshri Rai introduced the Swadesh Conclave, saying it is a platform for collective dialogue. She said this year is the sixth edition of Swadesh Conclave. Swadesh is the platform to talk about national interests. This year’s theme is Transforming India. She quoted Faiz Ahmed Faiz’s Bol, saying everybody is entitled to airing their opinion and welcomed them to the Conclave.

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Union Budget 2026: What the middle class gains despite no income tax slab changes

Union Budget 2026 retains income tax slabs but offers indirect relief to the middle class through TCS cuts, simpler tax filing, cheaper medicines and higher job-creating expenditure.

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9 hours ago

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February 1, 2026

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Union Budget 2026: what the middle class gains despite no income tax slab changes

Union Budget 2026 may not have delivered direct income tax relief to salaried taxpayers, but the government has introduced several indirect measures aimed at easing financial pressure on middle-class households.

While tax slabs remain unchanged, the Budget outlines steps to simplify compliance, reduce taxes on overseas spending, lower the cost of essential medicines, and support job creation through higher public spending.

Income tax status quo continues

The government has retained the existing income tax framework for individuals. Annual income up to Rs 12 lakh continues to remain tax-free, and with the Rs 75,000 standard deduction, effective tax-free income rises to Rs 12.75 lakh.

No changes have been announced in income tax slabs, signalling policy continuity rather than immediate relief for salaried taxpayers.

Compliance relief and tax rationalisation measures

A key focus of Budget 2026 is reducing compliance burdens and improving the taxpayer experience.

The government has proposed a reduction in Tax Collected at Source (TCS) on overseas tour programme packages to 2%, down from the earlier rates of 5% and 20%. TCS under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for education and medical expenses has also been cut to 2% from 5%, providing relief to families sending money abroad for essential purposes.

To ease return filing pressure, timelines have been staggered. Individual taxpayers filing ITR-1 and ITR-2 can continue to file returns till July 31, while non-audit businesses and trusts will now get time till August 31.

Protection for small investors

The Budget proposes taxing all share buybacks as capital gains instead of dividends, a move aimed at protecting minority retail investors.

In another relief measure, interest awarded by Motor Accident Claims Tribunal (MACT) to individuals will be exempt from income tax, and the applicable TDS will be removed.

A single-window system will also be introduced for submitting Form 15G and Form 15H through depositories for TDS on dividends and interest, simplifying compliance for senior citizens and small savers.

Cheaper medicines and essential products

Healthcare costs may ease slightly as the government has announced duty exemptions on about 17 cancer medicines. Personal imports of medicines for seven rare diseases will also be allowed duty-free.

In addition, customs duty relief has been extended to critical components used in the manufacture of microwave ovens, television equipment, leather goods and footwear, which could help moderate consumer prices.

Job creation through higher spending

The government has raised capital expenditure to over Rs 12 lakh crore, with allocations for railways, tourism, logistics and technology sectors. These investments are expected to support employment generation and long-term economic activity, indirectly benefiting middle-class households.

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Budget 2026 balances high capex and growth, says PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Union Budget 2026 strikes a balance between high capital expenditure and strong growth while reinforcing reforms and fiscal discipline.

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9 hours ago

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February 1, 2026

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday said the Union Budget 2026 strikes a fine balance between high capital expenditure and sustained economic growth, calling it a roadmap for long-term national development.

Speaking after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her ninth consecutive Budget, the prime minister said the proposals reflect a vision of trust-based governance and a human-centric economic framework. He added that India is not just focused on being the fastest-growing economy but is working towards becoming the world’s third-largest economy.

PM Modi said the Budget also reinforces India’s strong global standing and will provide fresh momentum to the country’s reform agenda. According to him, the measures announced will energise what he described as India’s “reform express”.

The prime minister highlighted the Budget’s focus on promoting tourism in the northeastern region, noting that it would create new opportunities and support regional development.

On fiscal management, the finance minister retained the states’ share in the divisible pool of central taxes at 41 per cent. She announced that Rs 1.4 lakh crore has been provided to states as Finance Commission grants for 2026–27, in line with the recommendations of the commission.

The Finance Commission, chaired by Arvind Panagariya, had submitted its report to the President in November 2025 after consultations with states and Union Territories, several of which had sought a higher share.

Sitharaman pegged the fiscal deficit for 2026–27 at 4.3 per cent of GDP, lower than the revised estimate of 4.4 per cent for 2025–26. She also said the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to 55.6 per cent in 2026–27 from 56.1 per cent in the previous fiscal.

A gradual reduction in the debt burden will help free up resources for priority sectors by lowering interest outgo, the finance minister said.

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India to build seven high-speed rail corridors, Finance Minister announces

Union Budget 2026-27 unveiled seven high-speed rail corridors and a dedicated east-west freight corridor to boost sustainable transport and economic growth.

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13 hours ago

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February 1, 2026

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India to build seven high-speed rail corridors, Finance Minister announces

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, presenting the Union Budget 2026-27 in Parliament on Sunday, announced that India will develop seven high-speed rail corridors connecting key cities across the country.

These corridors, described as ‘growth connectors’, aim to promote environmentally sustainable passenger transport systems. The proposed high-speed rail links will connect:

  • Mumbai and Pune
  • Hyderabad and Pune
  • Hyderabad and Bengaluru
  • Hyderabad and Chennai
  • Chennai and Bengaluru
  • Delhi and Varanasi
  • Varanasi and Siliguri

In addition to passenger rail, Sitharaman announced a dedicated east-west freight corridor connecting Dankuni in the east with Surat in the west. This initiative, along with the operationalisation of 22 new national waterways over the next five years, is intended to enhance multimodal transport and reduce logistics costs.

“These initiatives will strengthen freight movement and support sustainable cargo transportation,” the Finance Minister said.

The Budget also emphasizes infrastructure development in cities with populations over five lakh (Tier II and Tier III), which have emerged as key growth centres. Sitharaman further proposed a public capital expenditure of Rs 12.2 lakh crore for the financial year 2026-27.

She outlined that the Union Budget is guided by three core responsibilities—accelerating economic growth, fulfilling aspirations, and ensuring equitable access to resources for families, communities, and regions.

Describing the plans as part of a broader reform agenda, she added, “The ‘Reform Express’ is on its way.”

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