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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The Southwest monsoon that accounts for about 75 per cent of rainfall in India and is the most anticipated weather phenomenon in the country is likely to miss its date with Kerala on June 1 and arrive a few days late.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast for 2019 released today (Wednesday, May 15), as reported by The Indian Express (IE) and The Hindu, says it would hit the Kerala coast six days late, on June 6. Private weather forecaster Skymet puts its arrival date as June 4.

In 2017, the onset over Kerala happened two days in advance (May 30) whereas in 2018, the onset was realised on May 29, which was three days preceding the normal onset date over Kerala.

In Andaman and Nicobar islands, the IMD said, monsoon will arrive towards the end of this week, later than normal. It usually arrives over the islands anytime between May 10 – May 15.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon to advance onto Andaman and Nicobar islands around May18 or May 19,” the forecast suggested.

Generally, the monsoon reaches Kerala within 10 days of reaching the Andamans. However, meteorologists had indicated that the monsoon — impeded by high temperatures in the seas surrounding India, and an El Nino — will advance sluggishly after reaching Kerala.

To forecast the monsoon arrival, the IMD uses a customised weather model which, it stated, had been wrong only once – in 2015 – since 2014.

This model crunches 6 meteorological parameters: the minimum temperatures over northwest India; the pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea; the lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean; the upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean; and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the southwest Pacific region.

The model has a built-in error margin of four days and prediction of aJune 6 onset can mean any day from June 2-10.

The monsoon’s arrival time, the IMD said, had no bearing to the quantum of rainfall in June-September period.

The IMD said it expected a “normal monsoon” but pointed to a “significant probability” of below normal rains.

But the Skymet forecast could e reason for worry. Skymet has maintained, in line with its earlier forecast, that the rains would be poor this year at 93 per cent of the normal.

According to its forecast, the drought-affected regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, along with parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, will face nearly 9 per cent deficiency in the June-September rains, reported The Business Standard (BS).

Rajasthan, northern Karnataka and Rayalseema could also see poor rain, Skymet said. While the model error for the amount of rain is 5 per cent, that for the date of arrival is two days.

“All four regions are going to witness lower than normal rain this season. East and northeast India and the central parts will get poorer rain than northwest India and the southern peninsula,” Jatin Singh, managing director at Skymet, was reported as saying.

The initial advance of the monsoon over peninsular India in June is going to be slow, the weather agency said. What does not augur well for the economy is that Skymet expects multiple agrarian regions to have a serious shortfall in rain.

On the other hand, observations by global weather agencies that show weaker El Nino conditions in the monsoon period could limit the scarcity to some extent. All long-range forecasts, however, are prone to error due to the complexity of the Indian monsoon system. Skymet’s forecast of a fully normal monsoon (100 per cent) last year was proven wrong when the actual rainfall turned out to be 91 per cent of the normal.

Independent weather observers concurred with Skymet on the onset date, the BS report said. They said temperatures in the mainland dropped a bit due to a series of western disturbances, which are causing thunderstorms in Delhi and other states. This is delaying the development of low-pressure areas in central India and desert regions, they added.

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India News

President’s Rule revoked in Manipur as NDA set to form new government

President’s Rule has been withdrawn in Manipur nearly a year after its imposition, paving the way for a new NDA-led government under Yumnam Khemchand Singh.

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President rule invoked in Manipur

President’s Rule has been revoked in Manipur nearly a year after it was imposed, clearing the way for the formation of a new government led by the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The decision came hours before the scheduled oath ceremony of the new council of ministers.

Chief minister-designate Yumnam Khemchand Singh is set to take oath later this evening, along with other NDA legislators who will formally join the new government. The revocation brings an end to central rule that had been in place since February 2025, following the resignation of then chief minister N Biren Singh.

Assembly status during central rule

During the period of President’s Rule, the Manipur Legislative Assembly remained in suspended animation, meaning it was neither functioning nor dissolved. With the restoration of the elected government, legislative activity is expected to resume.

Khemchand Singh, 61, belongs to the Meitei community. Two deputy chief ministers have been named to reflect Manipur’s ethnic diversity. Nemcha Kipgen, from the Kuki community, and Losii Dikho, from the Naga community, are set to take charge as deputy chief ministers.

According to people with direct knowledge of the matter, Nemcha Kipgen is likely to take oath from a Manipur government guesthouse in Delhi.

Key portfolios and leadership choices

Seven-time MLA from Bishnupur district, Govindas Konthoujam, said he has been entrusted with the Home portfolio. Emphasising stability and law and order, he said he remains committed to serving the state with discipline and restraint.

Sources said Khemchand Singh is viewed within the party as a non-polarising leader who is acceptable across internal factions at a time of political transition. While he is yet to be tested in governance, he is seen as a steady administrative choice capable of providing organisational discipline and continuity amid uncertainty.

Uneasy peace continues in Manipur

The formation of the new government comes against the backdrop of continued tension in Manipur, nearly three years after violence erupted between the Meitei community in the valley areas and the Kuki tribes in several hill districts.

A section of Kuki groups has been demanding a separate administrative arrangement, with negotiations involving multiple insurgent groups operating under two umbrella organisations that are signatories to the suspension of operations agreement.

In recent weeks, some Kuki civil society organisations have stated they would not participate in the Manipur government and have distanced themselves from Kuki MLAs expected to join the new administration.

A day before the announcement of the new government, Kuki leader Paolienlal Haokip posted on X that representatives of the Kuki Zo people could not take part in leadership selection without justice and a written commitment for political settlement.

Diverging demands from communities

Meitei civil society groups have maintained that all internally displaced persons should be allowed to return home safely, even as dialogue continues. However, Kuki leaders have insisted that a political solution in the form of a separate administration must come first, before discussions on rehabilitation and return from relief camps.

Meitei leaders have countered this position, arguing that the demand reflects an ethnocentric territorial claim and that humanitarian issues should be addressed alongside negotiations, as no area is exclusively inhabited by a single community.

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India News

BJP spokesperson Shehzad Poonawalla’s mother injured in hit-and-run incident in Pune

BJP spokesperson Shehzad Poonawalla has alleged that his mother was deliberately hit by a car in Pune and left critically injured. She is scheduled to undergo surgery.

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Shehzad Punawalla

BJP national spokesperson Shehzad Poonawalla has claimed that his mother was seriously injured after being struck by a car in an alleged hit-and-run incident in Pune. The accused reportedly fled the spot after the incident, leaving her critically injured.

According to Poonawalla, the incident occurred a few hours earlier and his mother is scheduled to undergo surgery. He appealed to authorities to identify and arrest the person responsible at the earliest.

Sharing details on social media, Poonawalla said an unidentified individual ran a car over his mother and escaped from the scene. He requested prayers for her recovery and expressed anguish over the incident, describing his mother as a compassionate person whose injury had deeply shaken him.

He also tagged Pune City Police, senior police officials, and Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, urging strict legal action against the accused and ensuring that the person does not evade accountability.

CCTV footage surfaces, police complaint to be filed

In a related development, Poonawalla’s brother and political analyst Tehseen Poonawalla shared CCTV footage on social media that allegedly shows the moment their mother was hit by the vehicle.

Tehseen stated that his mother, a senior citizen, had stepped out of the car while it was being refuelled when the incident occurred. He alleged that the act appeared deliberate and said efforts were underway to identify the vehicle involved.

He further confirmed that a police complaint would be filed and questioned how the vehicle could have hit his mother when she was standing at a distance from the car.

Fractured hip, surgery planned

Providing an update on her medical condition, Tehseen said their mother had suffered a fractured hip and would require surgical intervention. She has been admitted to hospital and doctors are monitoring her vitals ahead of surgery.

He described the incident as infuriating and heartbreaking, adding that his mother would need a rod implant following the hip surgery. He also said he had spoken to senior police officials and expressed hope that swift action would be taken.

Authorities have not yet issued an official statement on the incident. Further details are awaited as investigations continue.

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Three sisters die after jumping from ninth floor in Ghaziabad

Three minor sisters died after jumping from the ninth floor of their Ghaziabad apartment, allegedly following a dispute over online gaming, police said.

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Three sisters die after jumping from ninth floor in Ghaziabad

Three minor sisters died after jumping from the ninth floor of their apartment building in Uttar Pradesh’s Ghaziabad, allegedly following objections by their parents to their online gaming habits.

The incident occurred at Bharat City, a residential township in Ghaziabad, at around 2 am on Wednesday. The girls were found dead at the spot.

The sisters have been identified as Pakhi, aged 12, Prachi, 14, and Vishika, 16.

According to police, the three siblings were extremely close and spent most of their time together. They reportedly followed the same daily routine, including bathing, eating, attending school, and sleeping together.

Preliminary findings suggest the girls had become addicted to online gaming during the COVID-19 pandemic. They were reportedly playing an online task-based game referred to as a ‘Korean love game’. Police also said the sisters were not attending school regularly.

Investigators said the parents had objected to the girls’ excessive gaming, following which the incident allegedly took place. Police teams reached the spot soon after and have begun an investigation to ascertain the exact sequence of events.

Further details are awaited as the probe continues.

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