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Missing link: The informal sector

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Urjit Patel

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Flawed methodology distorts CSO data about the economy

By Sindhu Bhattacharya

The Government would have us believe that demonetisation has had an almost negligible impact on India’s economic growth in the December quarter of this fiscal. Never mind that most economists have been flummoxed by the GDP data which the Central Statistics Office (CSO) released on Tuesday and whose authenticity many have subsequently questioned. Whether the CSO has been completely honest in gathering and extrapolating data is for the experts to decipher—Opposition parties like the Congress have already begun doubting the veracity of what CSO has laid on the table. But one point cannot be ignored—does the CSO use correct methodology to reflect actual ground realities of India’s economy or is the complete exclusion of our thriving informal economy in data projection the real culprit?

Two caveats: First, the numbers released on Tuesday are advance estimates and therefore an updated version will come in later where corrections will most likely be incorporated. Besides, some growth numbers for previous quarters have been revised downwards and this makes the data for Q3FY17 look rosy in comparison. Second, former Chief Statistician Pronob Sen and some other economists have pointed out that CSO doesn’t cook the numbers. Sen told The Indian Express, “The CSO has made no mistake. Its estimate is based on specific assumptions and it is not allowed to fiddle with these assumptions. For any change in methodology, it has to approach the Advisory Committee on National Accounts.”

Also read: Questioning CSO data is jumping the gun, say experts, wait for revision

Here’s what the CSO data showed: GDP growth at 7% in the December quarter versus 7.4% in the September quarter and 6.9% in the December quarter of the previous fiscal year. Growth in private final consumption accelerated to 10.1% in Q3FY17 versus 5.1% in Q2FY17; growth in manufacturing accelerated to 8.3% in the December quarter against 6.9% in the September quarter of FY17. If demonetisation severely impacted economic activity in India—a widely held perception based on anecdotal evidence—how could these numbers be correct?

But the CSO has been a butt of jokes since Tuesday for something it cannot control—its faulty methodology. Its data collection seems to ignore a very significant portion of India’s economy: the informal sector. According to the brokerage Ambit, the informal sector accounts for over 40% of India’s GDP and provides employment to over 75% of India’s labour force. In absolute terms this means that the informal economy generates GDP worth $907 billion and provides employment to 360 million of India’s total labour force of 480 million people.

“The quarterly estimates published by the CSO by definition are a result of an extrapolation exercise based on partial data… the numbers estimate growth in the informal economy using formal economy-related data,” Ambit had said in a note to clients earlier. It had further noted that the main source of CSO data for the informal sector is the NSSO, which publishes with a lag and captures data with a 2-5 year frequency!

Put simply, this means CSO methodology would anyway have shown the results it has indeed shown since it is not tracking the informal sector directly and using relatively old data. One wonders at the economists for then being surprised at the data – it should have been obvious that the pain of demonetisation, which was largely felt in the informal sector, would not get captured in its entirety by the government’s own statistical office.

Neelkanth Mishra, India equity strategist, Credit Suisse told the Indian Express in the same piece that “Almost 45 per cent of the GDP is informal. The CSO uses different proxies to estimate GDP. For instance, sales tax collections is taken as a proxy for the trade sector. Here, if states post robust sales tax growth, the trade sector growth will reflect it. The CSO doesn’t get influenced by anyone. Yes, we should discuss how quarterly GDP data can be arrived at to make it more useful.”

The question which the economists now need to ponder over is whether the formal sector wasn’t majorly impacted by demonetisation and if this is the case, why did the large companies escape India’s biggest economic disrupter since Independence?

According to Ambit’s note tracking 17 “high frequency” sectors and how they were impacted through demonetisation, 10 of these sectors showed negative growth in the December quarter versus the September quarter. The biggest drop was seen in passenger vehicle sales (29.6%) followed by two wheeler sales (18.7%). Non-oil bank credit fell 6% while retail credit was down 4.5%. Domestic tractor sales fell 7% while cement production was lower by 3%

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the Chief Economist at the State Bank of India explained how the formal economy continued its growth despite demonetisation. SBI considered the latest quarterly results of listed entities with more than Rs 100 crore turnover; out of 946 listed entities about 720 entities were studied. Ghosh found these 720 entities had average cash sales (assuming 2% of net sales) of Rs 24.40 crore per entity, an increase from Rs 22.98 crore in Q2 FY17 per entity for 731 entities.

Also read: ‘Too early to celebrate’ India’s GDP beat: Former FM Chidambaram

Radhika Rao, an economist at Singapore’s DBS Bank, told CNBC sub-trends suggested the formal sector might have actually benefited from the banknote ban, with more transactions taking place through electronic means.

BJP MP Subramanian Swamy told CNBC though that many of the calculations for the informal sector were based on “guesswork,” “benchmarks” and “ratios” as opposed to raw data. “Therefore, I won’t place too much emphasis on it. The real issues are the slowdown in small-and-medium industries because of the cash crunch,” Swamy said.

The bottomline is, in the absence of data capturing of the small and medium enterprises and the huge parallel economy which thrives in India, CSO’s quarterly exercise lacks meaning. And the data it puts out needs to be checked and cross checked before being accepted. No Prime Minister, this is not a case of Harvard versus hard work, it is more a case of closing one’s eyes to reality. Unless the informal sector gets its fair share in official data capturing, discrepancies will remain.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Why Hindenburg Research is shutting down: A personal note from the founder

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

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Nate Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research, has decided to shut down his short-selling venture, which has famously exposed alleged frauds amounting to billions and sent shockwaves through major corporations. From igniting a $150 billion crisis for the Adani Group to taking down giants like Nikola and Eros International, Hindenburg has become synonymous with financial scrutiny and controversy depending on one’s perspective.

In a comprehensive blog post titled “Personal Note From Our Founder,” Anderson revealed his decision, stating that the firm has fulfilled its mission and that it is time to move forward. “As I’ve shared with family, friends, and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research,” he wrote.

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

This announcement follows Hindenburg’s completion of its final investigations into alleged financial fraud, which have been submitted to regulators. “As of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today,” Anderson noted.

Reflecting on his career, he acknowledged that his intense dedication to the firm had come at the expense of other life areas. Initially motivated by a desire to prove himself, he ultimately began to view Hindenburg Research as just one of many chapters in his life.

In the upcoming six months, Anderson plans to create and share content, including materials and videos, to transparently illustrate the firm’s investigative techniques. He hopes this will inspire others to pursue similar efforts.

Hindenburg Research operated with a small but committed team of 11 members. Anderson praised their dedication to precise, evidence-based reporting and their courage in uncovering financial fraud. His team’s efforts have significantly influenced the landscape of financial accountability, with nearly 100 individuals facing civil or criminal charges partially attributable to their investigations.

“Nearly 100 individuals have been charged civilly or criminally by regulators, at least in part due to our work, including billionaires and oligarchs. We shook some empires that we felt needed shaking,” Anderson stated.

Hindenburg garnered international attention in January 2023 when it published a report alleging fraud and stock manipulation by the Adani Group. This report triggered a massive selloff in Adani’s stock, erasing over $100 billion from Gautam Adani’s personal wealth and causing the market capitalization of 10 Adani Group companies to plummet from ₹19.19 lakh crore on January 24, 2023, to below ₹7 lakh crore by February 27.

Although Adani stocks eventually recovered, the Supreme Court later noted that allegations made by organizations like Hindenburg, without proper verification, cannot be considered valid evidence. Previously, Hindenburg’s investigations included exposing Nikola Corporation in 2020 for fraud, which resulted in the resignation of founder Trevor Milton.

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India News

Sensex sheds 1,049 points, Nifty drops below 23,100

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Sensex falls 1,049 points, Nifty slips below 23,100 amid market downturn

The Indian stock market faced another day of sharp declines on January 13, as bearish sentiments tightened their grip for the fourth consecutive session. Weak global cues, a surge in crude oil prices to a three-month high, and reduced expectations of a U.S. rate cut in 2025 contributed to the downward spiral.

At the close of trading, the Sensex plunged 1,048.90 points or 1.36% to settle at 76,330.01. The Nifty also fell significantly, shedding 345.55 points or 1.47% to close at 23,085.95.

Sectoral impact

All sectoral indices ended the session in the red. The realty index was the worst hit, slumping by 6.7%. Other sectors, including oil & gas, power, PSU, metal, and media, recorded losses in the range of 3-4%.

This broad-based sell-off saw investors’ wealth take a major hit. The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies dropped sharply by Rs 12.39 lakh crore, falling to Rs 417.28 lakh crore from Rs 429.67 lakh crore in the previous session.

Key drivers of the decline

Crude oil prices: Crude oil surged to a three-month high, stoking fears of inflationary pressures and higher input costs across industries.

Global market trends: Weak global markets added to investor apprehensions, as global indices reflected a cautious outlook amid economic uncertainties.

Interest rate concerns: Revised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in 2025 also weighed on investor sentiment.

Outlook

Market experts suggest that volatility may persist in the near term as global and domestic factors continue to influence investor behavior. A focus on corporate earnings reports and international economic trends will be critical in shaping market movements in the weeks ahead.

With a significant erosion in investor wealth, market participants remain cautious as they navigate the ongoing uncertainties.

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Pune entrepreneur asks Blinkit CEO to launch ATM service after Ambulance, sparks debate

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

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Days after Blinkit launched its 10-minute ambulance service, a start-up founder and YouTuber reached out to Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa with a request to introduce an “ATM-like” service. The founder suggested that this service would be “incredibly helpful.”

Harsh Punjabi, founder of The Dot Company and a YouTuber, posted on social media platform X: “Hey @albinder, please start an ATM-like service on Blinkit. Users could pay via UPI, and cash could be delivered to their doorstep in under 10 minutes. That would be super helpful!”

His rationale for this suggestion became clear in a follow-up tweet where he expressed, “Leaving for a trip and need cash. I only have Rs 100 at home. I don’t want to go to the ATM, but it looks like I’ll have to.”

Punjabi’s tweet sparked a variety of responses. Some users pointed out that delivery charges would incur an 18 percent GST, while others claimed that the idea would make Indians lazier. Many questioned the need for cash, given the widespread acceptance of UPI.

One user remarked, “The idea is good, but the 18 percent GST on delivery charges would ruin everything,” while another joked, “This scheme should be kept a secret.”

Another user lamented, “Why doesn’t Blinkit breathe on our behalf too? We’ve become that lazy,” and another added humorously, “Please, let’s not make India lazy to this extent.”

A user highlighted that similar arrangements exist where customers go to shops, pay extra for their bills, and take back the additional cash for tasks like paying rickshaw pullers.

“Why do you want cash? Cash should be eliminated. We need maximum digitalization,” one user opined, while another noted that acquiring smaller notes can be tricky, especially when UPI isn’t an option.

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

On January 2, Blinkit announced its ambulance service. Dhindsa stated, “We are taking our first step toward addressing the challenge of providing quick and reliable ambulance services in our cities. The first five ambulances will be operational in Gurugram starting today. As we expand, users will soon have the option to book a Basic Life Support (BLS) ambulance through the Blinkit app.”

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