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Missing link: The informal sector

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Urjit Patel

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Flawed methodology distorts CSO data about the economy

By Sindhu Bhattacharya

The Government would have us believe that demonetisation has had an almost negligible impact on India’s economic growth in the December quarter of this fiscal. Never mind that most economists have been flummoxed by the GDP data which the Central Statistics Office (CSO) released on Tuesday and whose authenticity many have subsequently questioned. Whether the CSO has been completely honest in gathering and extrapolating data is for the experts to decipher—Opposition parties like the Congress have already begun doubting the veracity of what CSO has laid on the table. But one point cannot be ignored—does the CSO use correct methodology to reflect actual ground realities of India’s economy or is the complete exclusion of our thriving informal economy in data projection the real culprit?

Two caveats: First, the numbers released on Tuesday are advance estimates and therefore an updated version will come in later where corrections will most likely be incorporated. Besides, some growth numbers for previous quarters have been revised downwards and this makes the data for Q3FY17 look rosy in comparison. Second, former Chief Statistician Pronob Sen and some other economists have pointed out that CSO doesn’t cook the numbers. Sen told The Indian Express, “The CSO has made no mistake. Its estimate is based on specific assumptions and it is not allowed to fiddle with these assumptions. For any change in methodology, it has to approach the Advisory Committee on National Accounts.”

Also read: Questioning CSO data is jumping the gun, say experts, wait for revision

Here’s what the CSO data showed: GDP growth at 7% in the December quarter versus 7.4% in the September quarter and 6.9% in the December quarter of the previous fiscal year. Growth in private final consumption accelerated to 10.1% in Q3FY17 versus 5.1% in Q2FY17; growth in manufacturing accelerated to 8.3% in the December quarter against 6.9% in the September quarter of FY17. If demonetisation severely impacted economic activity in India—a widely held perception based on anecdotal evidence—how could these numbers be correct?

But the CSO has been a butt of jokes since Tuesday for something it cannot control—its faulty methodology. Its data collection seems to ignore a very significant portion of India’s economy: the informal sector. According to the brokerage Ambit, the informal sector accounts for over 40% of India’s GDP and provides employment to over 75% of India’s labour force. In absolute terms this means that the informal economy generates GDP worth $907 billion and provides employment to 360 million of India’s total labour force of 480 million people.

“The quarterly estimates published by the CSO by definition are a result of an extrapolation exercise based on partial data… the numbers estimate growth in the informal economy using formal economy-related data,” Ambit had said in a note to clients earlier. It had further noted that the main source of CSO data for the informal sector is the NSSO, which publishes with a lag and captures data with a 2-5 year frequency!

Put simply, this means CSO methodology would anyway have shown the results it has indeed shown since it is not tracking the informal sector directly and using relatively old data. One wonders at the economists for then being surprised at the data – it should have been obvious that the pain of demonetisation, which was largely felt in the informal sector, would not get captured in its entirety by the government’s own statistical office.

Neelkanth Mishra, India equity strategist, Credit Suisse told the Indian Express in the same piece that “Almost 45 per cent of the GDP is informal. The CSO uses different proxies to estimate GDP. For instance, sales tax collections is taken as a proxy for the trade sector. Here, if states post robust sales tax growth, the trade sector growth will reflect it. The CSO doesn’t get influenced by anyone. Yes, we should discuss how quarterly GDP data can be arrived at to make it more useful.”

The question which the economists now need to ponder over is whether the formal sector wasn’t majorly impacted by demonetisation and if this is the case, why did the large companies escape India’s biggest economic disrupter since Independence?

According to Ambit’s note tracking 17 “high frequency” sectors and how they were impacted through demonetisation, 10 of these sectors showed negative growth in the December quarter versus the September quarter. The biggest drop was seen in passenger vehicle sales (29.6%) followed by two wheeler sales (18.7%). Non-oil bank credit fell 6% while retail credit was down 4.5%. Domestic tractor sales fell 7% while cement production was lower by 3%

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the Chief Economist at the State Bank of India explained how the formal economy continued its growth despite demonetisation. SBI considered the latest quarterly results of listed entities with more than Rs 100 crore turnover; out of 946 listed entities about 720 entities were studied. Ghosh found these 720 entities had average cash sales (assuming 2% of net sales) of Rs 24.40 crore per entity, an increase from Rs 22.98 crore in Q2 FY17 per entity for 731 entities.

Also read: ‘Too early to celebrate’ India’s GDP beat: Former FM Chidambaram

Radhika Rao, an economist at Singapore’s DBS Bank, told CNBC sub-trends suggested the formal sector might have actually benefited from the banknote ban, with more transactions taking place through electronic means.

BJP MP Subramanian Swamy told CNBC though that many of the calculations for the informal sector were based on “guesswork,” “benchmarks” and “ratios” as opposed to raw data. “Therefore, I won’t place too much emphasis on it. The real issues are the slowdown in small-and-medium industries because of the cash crunch,” Swamy said.

The bottomline is, in the absence of data capturing of the small and medium enterprises and the huge parallel economy which thrives in India, CSO’s quarterly exercise lacks meaning. And the data it puts out needs to be checked and cross checked before being accepted. No Prime Minister, this is not a case of Harvard versus hard work, it is more a case of closing one’s eyes to reality. Unless the informal sector gets its fair share in official data capturing, discrepancies will remain.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Google reduces 10% of managerial staff to enhance efficiency and ‘Googleyness’

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Google has pruned its managerial workforce, reducing it by 10% in a move aimed at streamlining operations and redefining its corporate culture in a year-long push. This pruning, part of a broader efficiency drive, includes a 10% cut at manager, director, and vice president levels.

Reports indicate that during an all-hands meeting, CEO Sundar Pichai outlined the rationale behind the decision, emphasizing the need for efficiency and redefining the company’s core values, often referred to as “Googleyness.”

A Google spokesperson revealed that some affected employees would transition to individual contributor roles, while others faced role eliminations. These adjustments come amidst growing challenges in the tech industry, particularly with rapid developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and fierce competition from rivals like OpenAI.

The AI race and Google’s response

The tech giant has recently intensified its focus on AI innovations, unveiling Gemini 2.0, its most advanced AI model yet. Sundar Pichai described the new model as heralding a “new agentic era” in which AI systems are designed to comprehend and make decisions about the world.

This announcement boosted Google’s stock, which surged by over 4% following the news, a day after a 3.5% increase attributed to breakthroughs in its quantum chip technology.

Previous layoffs in 2024

The latest layoffs mark Google’s fourth round of job cuts in 2024. Earlier in January, Google eliminated several hundred positions in its global advertisements team. In June, its cloud unit also saw workforce reductions. By January of this year, Google had already cut 12,000 roles, equivalent to 6.4% of its global workforce.

In a letter addressed to employees during the earlier layoffs, Pichai took responsibility for the decisions, stating that the company had experienced dramatic growth that required adjustments to sustain operations. Despite efforts, he acknowledged the process could have been managed better.

Redefining ‘Googleyness’

At the same meeting, Pichai stressed the need to revisit and reshape the concept of “Googleyness.” This term, often used to define the company’s unique culture and hiring philosophy, will now play a pivotal role in transforming corporate dynamics to adapt to new challenges.

The adjustments highlight Google’s commitment to staying competitive while reshaping its operational framework to remain aligned with its long-term vision.

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Zomato introduces Food Rescue feature

“We don’t encourage order cancellation at Zomato, because it leads to a tremendous amount of food wastage,” he said.

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Zomato has introduced a new feature called Food Rescue to minimise food wastage, announced the food delivery platform CEO Deepinder Goyal on Sunday.

Announcing the new feature on X, Goyal said the decision, to introduce the new feature, was taken to prevent the tremendous amount of food wastage due to order cancellation on the platform.

Committed to minimising food wastage, the Zomato boss said: “We don’t encourage order cancellation at Zomato, because it leads to a tremendous amount of food wastage.”

Goyal said despite having stringent policies, and a no-refund policy for cancellations, more than 4 lakh perfectly good orders get cancelled, for various reasons by customers.

He said the top concern for the online food delivery platform, the restaurant industry, and even the customers who cancel these orders, is to somehow save the food from going to waste.

With the launch of the new feature, Food Rescue, cancelled orders will now pop up for nearby customers, who can grab them at an unbeatable price, in their original untampered packaging, and receive them in just minutes.

According to Zomato, the cancelled order will pop up on the app for customers within a 3 km radius of the delivery partner carrying the order. To ensure freshness, the option to claim will only be available for a few minutes.

The online food delivery platform will not keep any proceeds except the required government taxes and the amount paid by the new customer will be shared with the original customer (if they made payment online) and with the restaurant partner.

Orders containing items sensitive to distances or temperature such as ice creams, shakes, smoothies, and certain perishable items, will not be eligible for Food Rescue.

Restaurant partners will continue to receive compensation for the original cancelled order, plus a portion of the amount paid by the new customer if the order is claimed, the company said. “Most restaurants have opted in for this feature, and can opt of it easily whenever they want, directly from their control panels,” it added.

The delivery partners will be compensated fully for the entire trip, from the initial pickup to the final drop-off at the new customer’s location, it said.

Food Rescue will show up on the customers’ home page automatically if there’s a cancelled order available for them to grab. The Customers have to refresh the home page to check for any newly available orders which need to be rescued.

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Adani, Torrent compete to purchase Gujarat Titans from CVC Capital

The probable sale of the Gujarat Titans, with the lock-in period coming to a close, will therefore be a defining moment in the changing face of IPL investments.

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The Adani Group and Torrent Group are currently negotiating a deal with private equity firm CVC Capital Partners to offload a controlling stake in the Indian Premier League franchise Gujarat Titans. According to sources, close to the development, reports say CVC Capital Partners will be looking to sell a majority interest while retaining a minority share in the franchise.

This becomes important because it is aligned with the end of the lock-in period by the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI), which restricts any new teams from selling stakes until February 2025. The three-year-old franchise Gujarat Titans is reportedly worth $1 billion to $1.5 billion. CVC Capital Partners had paid ₹5,625 crore for the franchise in 2021.

A source close to the development pointed out that IPL franchises have attracted many investors’ interest since the league has proved an asset with a good reputation for money-making capabilities and cash flows. This growing interest of investors embodies the financial value and stability that come with the IPL franchises.

Gautam Adani, who owns teams in the Women’s Premier League and UAE-based International League T20, is understood to be one of the serious buyers. In 2023, Adani’s group won the Ahmedabad franchise in the WPL with a bid of Rs1,289 crore, the highest offer. His interests in this potential deal signal his commitment to expanding his footprint in the cricketing world.

Arvinder Singh, COO of Gujarat Titans, exuded confidence in the financial future of the franchise. He said the team was confident of turning profitable in the next media rights cycle, referring to even the original ten IPL franchises that took four to five years to turn profitable. He added confidently that the Gujarat Titans would not only turn profitable but significantly enhance in brand value.
 
This surging interest of investors in it is evidence of the growing financial attractiveness of IPL franchises, driven by healthy revenue streams and an increasing global footprint. The probable sale of the Gujarat Titans, with the lock-in period coming to a close, will therefore be a defining moment in the changing face of IPL investments.

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