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AAP to sweep Punjab: Opinion poll

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10 years ago

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Voters wait in queue to casting vote during Punjab assembly polls at a polling station in Hoshiarpur on February 4, UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Its results indicate UP heading for a hung assembly, BJP winning Uttarakhand

By Nora Chopra

There are clear indications that no party is likely to get a clear majority in Uttar Pradesh. It looks like it is going to be a hung assembly in the country’s most populous state.

According to an opinion poll conducted by Amrish Tyagi, psephologist and son of Janata Dal (United) general secretary KC Tyagi, in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, before the polling in Punjab and Goa on February 4, the BJP can hope to form government only in Uttarakhand. The projected success of the BJP is imputed to the errors of incumbent Chief Minister Harish Rawat.

Tyagi was a poll consultant with the Donald Trump campaign team and he was tasked to reach out to the Asian community as well as assess its political preferences.

In Punjab where the Aam Aadmi Party had slipped back a few months ago, is back in the race.  Arvind Kejriwal’s ‘jharoo’ (the broom is the poll symbol) party is expected to sweep  its stronghold, Malwa region, which is represented by its three Members of Parliament (MP)s. Malwa region has 69 seats, out of which, according to the survey, the AAP is expected to get 55 to 62 seats. He would need another 10 to 15 seats from outside Malwa to form the government. The Congress is expected to get 45 to 52, and the Akali-BJP alliance 15 to 18 seats. The others will get two-four seats.

In Sikh-dominated Punjab, the assembly election has been fought for the first time between the poor and the rich. It was a class war, says Tyagi. Kejriwal is supposed to have done what even the founder of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Kanshiram, who belonged to Punjab, could not do. BSP had failed to have any impact in the state which has 34 per cent Dalit population, one of the highest in any state in the country. Kejriwal has successfully wooed Dalit voters along with the rural poor. Polling on Sunday saw the voter turnout in rural areas the highest at any time in the past.  

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses an election rally in Aligarh on February 5, ahead of the assembly polls in the state, UNI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses an election rally in Aligarh on February 5, ahead of the assembly polls in the state, UNI

The Congress was tipped to win in the state this time. Tyagi’s pre-poll survey had given 45 to 52 seats to the party. Captain Amarinder Singh, the Congress’ chief ministerial candidate, faced tough opposition from the Akali candidate and former chief of the army staff (COAS), General JJ Singh, and it is feared that he might even lose the election. Akali chief Prakash Singh Badal, who has been chief minister for 10 years now, has perhaps conceded defeat because he is learnt to have helped the Congress and head of the royal family of Patiala by asking the Akali followers to vote for the Congress candidate.

In this situation, it is the Hindu bloc that has no clear choice. In a normal election, the Hindu voter opted for the Congress and later preferred the BJP. But with the BJP out of reckoning, and the prospects of the Congress looking bleak, the Hindu bloc was left anchorless.  

The poll battle in Uttar Pradesh is the most confusing. Tyagi says no party is likely to get a clear majority. According to the survey he had conducted around January 25, the fight in UP is a triangular. It appears that BJP will emerge as the single largest party with 152 to 162 seats, the BSP, the most under-rated party, could win 125 to 135 seats, while the SP-Congress alliance will end in the third spot with 110 to 118 seats. The Congress is likely to fare better than the SP. The others will get 10 to 15 seats.

With each passing day, Tyagi says the scenario appears more confusing than ever. Mayawati seems to be gaining ground by the day.

Much would depend on the first phase of polling in western UP, where the Muslim vote is around  25 per cent and the Dalit vote is about 19 per cent, making her Dalit-Muslim social alliance a formidable force. While the Yadavs are absent in the belt stretching from Saharanpur to Agra. The Congress may boost the staggering fortunes of the SP, but it will not be sufficient for the alliance to win the election in the state. Muslims are unlikely to waste their vote on SP.  Their sole aim is to defeat the BJP. The SP and Congress blundered by not aligning with Ajit Singh’s Jat party, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) for fear of not getting the Muslim votes and apprehensions that the Jat vote would switch to the BJP.  But they were wrong as RLD, which had nine seats in the last assembly, is likely to raise it to at least 12 to 14, with Muslims and Jats again coming together. Meanwhile, Mayawati has given 100 tickets to Muslims. She is likely to sweep western UP.  In such a scenario, the Congress is unlikely to fare as well as it was expected to do.

In the Yadav belt of central UP, the SP-Congress alliance is likely to do better. But here too, Shivpal Yadav, the disgruntled uncle of the UP CM Akhilesh Yadav, has vowed to take his revenge.  He can get the Yadav votes transferred to either the BJP or the BSP. He has already sent many of his followers to BSP, the last one being Mukhtar Ansari. Ansari is strong in east UP, but he can influence Muslim votes all over the state.

The BJP is banking on its traditional upper caste votes in east UP. Here, it will face competition from the Congress, which is working to get back its traditional upper caste votes. The BJP has worked overtime on the non-Yadav Other Backward Classes/Castes (OBC) vote. BJP president Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s selective attacks on the SP are a strategy to split the Muslim votes, who they think will vote for the SP-Congress. The BJP’s top duo is not attacking the BSP for fear that the Muslims will favour Mayawati.

In Uttarakhand, the BJP has all reasons to be confident. According to Tyagi’s opinion poll the ruling Congress is likely to get 23 to 28 seats, and the BJP 36 to 41 seats. The rest will get three to six seats.

It is the infighting within the party that will cost the Congress dear.  Here, it is mainly the Brahmin consolidation which was complete after Narain Dutt Tiwari quit the party to join the BJP, courtesy Chief Minister Harish Rawat. Rawat is alleged to have pushed the Brahmins into BJP, starting with Vijay Bahuguna.

Besides the Brahmin consolidation, the other issue boosting BJP’s fortunes in the hill state is that of the surgical strike. Surgical strike may not help the BJP anywhere but it is supposed to be a big issue in Uttarakhand because every family here has or had a member in the army.

(Views expressed in this article are those of the author, and they do not reflect the stand of this news website.)       [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Delhi Police offers 11-person limit for CJP’s Connaught Place protest

Delhi Police has offered to facilitate a group of 11 people at Central Park in Connaught Place for the Cockroach Janata Party’s October 16 protest, while warning that violations of prohibitory orders could invite legal action.

Published

7 hours ago

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October 15, 2026

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CJP protest to continue

Delhi Police has proposed allowing a group of 11 people to carry the national flag and sing the national anthem at Central Park in Connaught Place on October 16, ahead of a protest called by the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) over alleged electoral fraud.

The police said it could facilitate the group at a suitable place in the park, while appealing to the public not to join the proposed gathering in large numbers. The offer comes amid prohibitory orders in Connaught Place and adjoining areas under Section 163 of the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS).

CJP founder Abhijeet Dipke has called on people to assemble at Central Park at 5 pm on Friday with the national flag. The proposed demonstration, named “Lehra Do Tiranga”, follows the detention of CJP members Saurav Das and Ashutosh Ranka during an earlier protest.

Why Delhi Police proposed limiting the gathering

In its statement, Delhi Police cited the prevailing security and law-and-order situation in the area. It also referred to information from the New Delhi Municipal Council (NDMC) that Central Park would remain closed on October 16 and 17 for administrative reasons.

Deputy Commissioner of Police Neha Yadav said the NDMC had informed the police about the closure and had asked that no gathering be allowed near the park.

The police also cited representations from trader and market associations in Connaught Place and surrounding areas. According to the police, the associations had raised concerns about unlawful assemblies and their impact on businesses, particularly during the festive season.

Police warned that violations of Section 163 BNSS would invite appropriate legal action. It also stressed that the national flag must be displayed and carried, and the national anthem sung, in the prescribed manner with due respect and dignity.

Delhi High Court declines to stop CJP protest

The proposed gathering reached the Delhi High Court after a vendor sought intervention over concerns about disruption to businesses and public movement in Connaught Place.

On Thursday, the court declined to restrain the CJP from holding the protest. It recorded the police’s assurance that all possible measures under the law would be taken to regulate the gathering and maintain peace.

The petition was filed by a vendor at Palika Bazar in Connaught Place, who raised concerns about the potential impact of the demonstration on traders and others working in the area.

Additional Solicitor General Chetan Sharma, appearing for the authorities, told the court that steps had already been taken to regulate the proposed protest.

CJP’s protest call follows detention of party members

Dipke’s October 16 protest call follows earlier demonstrations over alleged electoral fraud. CJP members Saurav Das and Ashutosh Ranka are in jail on trespass charges after raising the national flag at Jantar Mantar earlier this week, according to the report.

The party has been protesting over alleged electoral fraud and has raised questions about the Election Commission.

Dipke has urged people to gather at Central Park with the national flag, arguing that raising the Tricolour should not be treated as a crime.

The police’s proposal to facilitate a group of 11 people came as the authorities sought to prevent a larger gathering at the site. The CJP’s response to the police’s offer was still awaited in the report published on October 15.

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Actor Imran Khan asked to leave India after CJP protest

Actor Imran Khan has been asked to leave India by October 28, days after participating in a protest called by the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) in Mumbai.

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8 hours ago

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October 15, 2026

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Actor Imran Khan, nephew of Bollywood star Aamir Khan, has been asked to leave India by the Mumbai Police, days after participating in a protest organised by the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) in Mumbai.

According to the notice, the actor has been given until October 28 to leave the country. The development follows his participation in the demonstration, which brought the actor into the spotlight over his involvement in a political protest.

Imran Khan is believed to hold US citizenship and an Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) card rather than full Indian citizenship, according to the report.

What led to the notice against Imran Khan?

The notice came days after Imran Khan joined a protest called by the CJP in Mumbai. The group, described as a satirical political organisation, had called for the demonstration.

The actor’s participation was followed by action from the authorities, with the Mumbai Police directing him to leave India by the specified deadline.

The notice does not, by itself, mean that the actor has already left the country or has been deported. October 28 is the deadline mentioned for his departure.

Imran Khan and his citizenship status

Imran Khan is known for his work in Hindi films, including Jaane Tu… Ya Jaane Na and Delhi Belly. He is also the nephew of actor Aamir Khan.

The report states that Imran Khan is believed to be a US citizen and hold an OCI card. OCI status does not confer Indian citizenship, although it provides eligible foreign citizens of Indian origin with specified privileges under Indian law.

The notice directing the actor to leave India follows his participation in the Mumbai protest. The reported development has brought attention to the intersection of immigration rules and the participation of foreign nationals in political demonstrations.

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India News

Election Commission orders voter roll revision in 17 states, UTs

The Election Commission has ordered a Special Summary Revision of electoral rolls in 17 states and Union Territories. Draft rolls are scheduled for November 12, with final rolls due on January 4, 2027.

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8 hours ago

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October 15, 2026

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The Election Commission of India (ECI) has ordered a Special Summary Revision (SSR) of electoral rolls in 17 states and Union Territories, with the exercise aimed at facilitating voter registration and including eligible electors who may have been left out during the Special Intensive Revision (SIR).

The order was issued on Thursday, October 15, amid continuing political controversy over the SIR process and concerns raised by opposition parties regarding the exclusion of names from electoral rolls.

Under the announced schedule, January 1, 2027, will be the qualifying date for the revision. The draft electoral rolls are scheduled to be published on November 12, while the final rolls are due on January 4, 2027. Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, two states included in the exercise, are scheduled to go to the polls by February 2027.

Which states and Union Territories are covered?

The Special Summary Revision will cover the following 17 states and Union Territories:

  • Andaman and Nicobar Islands
  • Assam
  • Bihar
  • Chhattisgarh
  • Goa
  • Gujarat
  • Kerala
  • Lakshadweep
  • Madhya Pradesh
  • Manipur
  • Puducherry
  • Punjab
  • Rajasthan
  • Tamil Nadu
  • Uttar Pradesh
  • Uttarakhand
  • West Bengal

The Election Commission’s order follows earlier instructions issued to state election officials on September 29 to undertake a special drive to enrol eligible voters who had been left out, along with young and first-time electors.

Why has the Election Commission ordered the revision?

The announcement comes amid protests and political disagreements over the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls. Opposition parties have raised concerns about names being excluded during the exercise.

Another point of contention has been an additional declaration required from applicants submitting Form 6 for voter enrolment while the SIR was underway. The declaration required applicants to map their parents to the last SIR, which was conducted around 20 years ago.

The Election Commission had clarified on October 7 that the additional declaration applied only in states and Union Territories where the SIR was being conducted. It said the regular forms prescribed under the Registration of Electors Rules, 1960, would apply outside the SIR period.

The latest SSR order refers to applications for inclusion through Form 6 but does not mention the additional declaration.

What happens in states not covered by the current schedule?

The Election Commission has said that the schedule for the Special Summary Revision will be announced later in states and Union Territories where the SIR is ongoing or has recently been completed.

These include Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Chandigarh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, the National Capital Territory of Delhi, Odisha, Sikkim, Tripura and Telangana.

For Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, where the SIR has not yet started, the schedule for electoral roll revision will be announced in due course, taking local weather conditions into account.

The Election Commission’s latest order sets out a separate timeline for the 17 states and Union Territories covered by the current SSR exercise, while leaving the schedules for the other regions to be announced later.

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