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AAP to sweep Punjab: Opinion poll

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Voters wait in queue to casting vote during Punjab assembly polls at a polling station in Hoshiarpur on February 4, UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Its results indicate UP heading for a hung assembly, BJP winning Uttarakhand

By Nora Chopra

There are clear indications that no party is likely to get a clear majority in Uttar Pradesh. It looks like it is going to be a hung assembly in the country’s most populous state.

According to an opinion poll conducted by Amrish Tyagi, psephologist and son of Janata Dal (United) general secretary KC Tyagi, in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, before the polling in Punjab and Goa on February 4, the BJP can hope to form government only in Uttarakhand. The projected success of the BJP is imputed to the errors of incumbent Chief Minister Harish Rawat.

Tyagi was a poll consultant with the Donald Trump campaign team and he was tasked to reach out to the Asian community as well as assess its political preferences.

In Punjab where the Aam Aadmi Party had slipped back a few months ago, is back in the race.  Arvind Kejriwal’s ‘jharoo’ (the broom is the poll symbol) party is expected to sweep  its stronghold, Malwa region, which is represented by its three Members of Parliament (MP)s. Malwa region has 69 seats, out of which, according to the survey, the AAP is expected to get 55 to 62 seats. He would need another 10 to 15 seats from outside Malwa to form the government. The Congress is expected to get 45 to 52, and the Akali-BJP alliance 15 to 18 seats. The others will get two-four seats.

In Sikh-dominated Punjab, the assembly election has been fought for the first time between the poor and the rich. It was a class war, says Tyagi. Kejriwal is supposed to have done what even the founder of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Kanshiram, who belonged to Punjab, could not do. BSP had failed to have any impact in the state which has 34 per cent Dalit population, one of the highest in any state in the country. Kejriwal has successfully wooed Dalit voters along with the rural poor. Polling on Sunday saw the voter turnout in rural areas the highest at any time in the past.  

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses an election rally in Aligarh on February 5, ahead of the assembly polls in the state, UNI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses an election rally in Aligarh on February 5, ahead of the assembly polls in the state, UNI

The Congress was tipped to win in the state this time. Tyagi’s pre-poll survey had given 45 to 52 seats to the party. Captain Amarinder Singh, the Congress’ chief ministerial candidate, faced tough opposition from the Akali candidate and former chief of the army staff (COAS), General JJ Singh, and it is feared that he might even lose the election. Akali chief Prakash Singh Badal, who has been chief minister for 10 years now, has perhaps conceded defeat because he is learnt to have helped the Congress and head of the royal family of Patiala by asking the Akali followers to vote for the Congress candidate.

In this situation, it is the Hindu bloc that has no clear choice. In a normal election, the Hindu voter opted for the Congress and later preferred the BJP. But with the BJP out of reckoning, and the prospects of the Congress looking bleak, the Hindu bloc was left anchorless.  

The poll battle in Uttar Pradesh is the most confusing. Tyagi says no party is likely to get a clear majority. According to the survey he had conducted around January 25, the fight in UP is a triangular. It appears that BJP will emerge as the single largest party with 152 to 162 seats, the BSP, the most under-rated party, could win 125 to 135 seats, while the SP-Congress alliance will end in the third spot with 110 to 118 seats. The Congress is likely to fare better than the SP. The others will get 10 to 15 seats.

With each passing day, Tyagi says the scenario appears more confusing than ever. Mayawati seems to be gaining ground by the day.

Much would depend on the first phase of polling in western UP, where the Muslim vote is around  25 per cent and the Dalit vote is about 19 per cent, making her Dalit-Muslim social alliance a formidable force. While the Yadavs are absent in the belt stretching from Saharanpur to Agra. The Congress may boost the staggering fortunes of the SP, but it will not be sufficient for the alliance to win the election in the state. Muslims are unlikely to waste their vote on SP.  Their sole aim is to defeat the BJP. The SP and Congress blundered by not aligning with Ajit Singh’s Jat party, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) for fear of not getting the Muslim votes and apprehensions that the Jat vote would switch to the BJP.  But they were wrong as RLD, which had nine seats in the last assembly, is likely to raise it to at least 12 to 14, with Muslims and Jats again coming together. Meanwhile, Mayawati has given 100 tickets to Muslims. She is likely to sweep western UP.  In such a scenario, the Congress is unlikely to fare as well as it was expected to do.

In the Yadav belt of central UP, the SP-Congress alliance is likely to do better. But here too, Shivpal Yadav, the disgruntled uncle of the UP CM Akhilesh Yadav, has vowed to take his revenge.  He can get the Yadav votes transferred to either the BJP or the BSP. He has already sent many of his followers to BSP, the last one being Mukhtar Ansari. Ansari is strong in east UP, but he can influence Muslim votes all over the state.

The BJP is banking on its traditional upper caste votes in east UP. Here, it will face competition from the Congress, which is working to get back its traditional upper caste votes. The BJP has worked overtime on the non-Yadav Other Backward Classes/Castes (OBC) vote. BJP president Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s selective attacks on the SP are a strategy to split the Muslim votes, who they think will vote for the SP-Congress. The BJP’s top duo is not attacking the BSP for fear that the Muslims will favour Mayawati.

In Uttarakhand, the BJP has all reasons to be confident. According to Tyagi’s opinion poll the ruling Congress is likely to get 23 to 28 seats, and the BJP 36 to 41 seats. The rest will get three to six seats.

It is the infighting within the party that will cost the Congress dear.  Here, it is mainly the Brahmin consolidation which was complete after Narain Dutt Tiwari quit the party to join the BJP, courtesy Chief Minister Harish Rawat. Rawat is alleged to have pushed the Brahmins into BJP, starting with Vijay Bahuguna.

Besides the Brahmin consolidation, the other issue boosting BJP’s fortunes in the hill state is that of the surgical strike. Surgical strike may not help the BJP anywhere but it is supposed to be a big issue in Uttarakhand because every family here has or had a member in the army.

(Views expressed in this article are those of the author, and they do not reflect the stand of this news website.)       [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

PM Modi’s Indonesia visit to boost defence, digital and strategic partnership

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Indonesia visit is expected to strengthen bilateral ties through new initiatives in defence, digital infrastructure, maritime security, trade and critical minerals.

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PM Narendra Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Indonesia is expected to give fresh momentum to the growing strategic partnership between the two countries, with discussions likely to cover defence cooperation, maritime security, digital connectivity, trade, critical minerals and several other sectors.

India’s Ambassador to Indonesia, Sandeep Chakravorty, said the relationship between New Delhi and Jakarta has entered a stronger phase following Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s visit to India as the Chief Guest for the Republic Day celebrations last year. He said the Prime Minister’s visit is expected to further strengthen this trajectory through a series of new understandings and agreements.

Defence and maritime cooperation likely to receive major push

According to the ambassador, defence and maritime security will remain key pillars of the discussions during the visit.

He highlighted Indonesia’s strategic location along the Malacca Strait, describing secure sea lanes as vital for both countries and the wider Indo-Pacific region. He stressed that uninterrupted maritime connectivity remains essential for global trade and regional stability.

Without revealing specific details, Chakravorty indicated that the visit could produce significant outcomes in defence cooperation, saying several important announcements are expected.

‘BrahMos Plus’ hints at broader defence partnership

The ambassador also suggested that defence ties between India and Indonesia are moving beyond discussions centred on the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.

Responding to a question about future cooperation, he remarked that the next phase would be “BrahMos Plus,” while refraining from providing further details.

He said future collaboration is expected to focus on defence manufacturing, technology partnerships, training and capacity building. India, he noted, has emerged as an important exporter of defence equipment and could support Indonesia’s efforts to strengthen its domestic defence manufacturing capabilities.

Military cooperation is also expanding, with India set to participate with troops for the first time in the multinational Garuda Shield military exercise after previously attending as an observer.

Digital connectivity and UPI integration gain momentum

Digital cooperation is expected to be another major highlight of the visit.

The ambassador said Indonesia is preparing to launch its Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC)-inspired platform during Prime Minister Modi’s visit, making it the fastest international adopter of India’s digital public infrastructure model.

The initiative is expected to support nearly 65 million micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia by creating a more open digital commerce ecosystem.

Chakravorty also said discussions on integrating India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) with Indonesia’s payment systems have reached an advanced stage.

While technical integration remains complex due to Indonesia’s multiple payment-switch networks, he expressed confidence that progress would continue and the Prime Minister’s visit could accelerate the process.

Critical minerals and investment to feature prominently

Critical minerals are also expected to be a major area of cooperation as both countries look to strengthen supply chains for clean energy technologies and electric vehicle manufacturing.

Indonesia possesses significant reserves of nickel and other strategic minerals, while India is seeking reliable supplies to support its manufacturing ambitions.

The ambassador said India plans to invest in processing critical minerals within Indonesia rather than importing only raw materials. He added that such investments would support industrial development in both countries while contributing to India’s self-reliance goals.

Cultural ties to be highlighted

Apart from strategic and economic cooperation, the visit is also expected to showcase the longstanding cultural relationship between India and Indonesia.

Both countries will launch a 15-month programme commemorating Rabindranath Tagore’s 1927 visit to Indonesia, recognising his influence on the country’s educational and cultural landscape.

Prime Minister Modi is also expected to visit Yogyakarta, a city known for its historic temples, reflecting the deep civilisational links shared by the two nations.

With cooperation expanding across defence, digital infrastructure, trade and critical minerals, the visit is expected to mark another important step in strengthening the India-Indonesia strategic partnership and advancing cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.

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Ram Mandir Trust accepts Champat Rai’s resignation amid donation theft row

The Shri Ram Janmabhoomi Teerth Kshetra Trust has accepted Champat Rai’s resignation as General Secretary following the donation theft controversy, with Bajrang Bagra emerging as a leading contender for the post.

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Champat Rai

The Shri Ram Janmabhoomi Teerth Kshetra Trust has accepted the resignation of its General Secretary, Champat Rai, following the controversy surrounding the alleged theft of cash donations at the Ram Temple in Ayodhya.

According to sources, Bajrang Bagra has emerged as one of the leading contenders for the post. Bagra currently serves as the International General Secretary of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP). A chartered accountant by profession and a former head of PSU NALCO, he is considered to have the administrative and financial expertise required as the Trust moves into its next phase.

Sources indicated that the Trust is looking to appoint someone with strong experience in governance, finance and institutional administration to strengthen its functioning.

Although Champat Rai has stepped down as General Secretary, sources said he is expected to continue as a trustee unless he decides otherwise.

Decision on successor may come after VHP executive meeting

The appointment of the next General Secretary is unlikely to be announced immediately. The VHP’s biannual national executive meeting is scheduled to take place in Delhi on July 19 and 20, where several organisational decisions, including transfers and appointments, are expected to be discussed.

Champat Rai and trustee Anil Mishra had submitted their resignations after Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath reportedly took a firm stand on the alleged donation theft. Their resignations came after the Special Investigating Team (SIT) submitted its preliminary findings into the case.

Donation theft investigation

According to the preliminary investigation, temple staff responsible for counting cash donations allegedly siphoned off money despite CCTV cameras being installed at the counting centre. The report stated that the footage was not monitored regularly, allowing the alleged theft to continue. Reports suggest that around Rs 7 crore to Rs 7.5 crore may be missing.

So far, eight people have been arrested in connection with the case. Among them is Ram Shankar Yadav, also known as Tinnu Yadav, who worked as Champat Rai’s driver.

Sources said Champat Rai has told his close associates that Tinnu Yadav played the central role in the alleged fraud and misused the trust placed in him. According to the sources, Rai also claimed that when Yadav feared he would be caught, he leaked information to a Samajwadi Party leader.

The other accused arrested in the case are Avinash Shukla, Anukalp Mishra, Lav Kush Mishra, Manish Kumar Yadav, Karunesh Pandey, Ramashankar Mishra and Subhash Srivastava.

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WhatsApp gets more time to respond on username feature, rollout in India put on hold

WhatsApp has been granted more time to respond to the government’s concerns over its username feature and has assured that it will not launch the feature in India until discussions are completed.

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WhatsApp

Meta assures the government that the feature will not be introduced in India until ongoing consultations are completed.

Meta-owned WhatsApp has been granted an extension to submit its response to the Centre regarding its proposed username feature, while assuring the government that it will not roll out the feature in India until discussions on the matter are concluded.

According to sources, the government has allowed WhatsApp three additional days to file its response after the company sought more time. The original deadline for the reply was Friday.

The proposed username feature would allow users to connect with others without revealing their phone numbers, a move that has raised concerns within the government over its potential impact on cyber safety.

Last week, the Centre issued a notice to Meta questioning the feature, expressing concerns that it could increase online fraud, phishing attempts, impersonation, and so-called “digital arrest” scams. The government also directed the company to pause the rollout until consultations are completed to its satisfaction.

Sources said representatives from Meta met officials from the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) on Friday following the issuance of the notice. During the discussions, WhatsApp reportedly assured authorities that the feature would not be introduced in India before the consultation process is completed.

The government has also asked Meta to explain why action should not be initiated under the Information Technology Act and the relevant rules if the proposed feature is found to compromise user safety. It reminded the company that WhatsApp, as a significant social media intermediary, must comply with due diligence obligations under Indian law.

A WhatsApp spokesperson had earlier clarified that the username feature is not yet live and is expected to be introduced gradually later this year.

The company said it has built several safeguards into the feature to prevent impersonation. According to WhatsApp, usernames of public figures, government entities, celebrities, and verified Meta accounts have been reserved so that they can only be claimed by their legitimate owners. It also said lookalike variations of such usernames are being restricted.

WhatsApp also clarified that users will still need a phone number to create and use a WhatsApp account. The username feature is intended only as an alternative way for people to connect.

The company added that users would need to know another person’s exact username before initiating contact. It also plans to limit how many new users an account can message, prevent repeated attempts to guess usernames, and use automated systems to detect impersonation and abusive behaviour.

To help users identify unfamiliar contacts, WhatsApp said it will display contextual information whenever someone sends a message through a username for the first time. Users will be informed whether the sender is a new account, an existing contact, someone who shares a mutual group, or a person located in another country before deciding whether to respond.

Following its notice to WhatsApp, the IT Ministry also issued notices to Telegram and Signal, seeking details on how their existing username-based systems address concerns related to fraud and impersonation. While WhatsApp has around 500 million users in India, Telegram has a significantly smaller user base.

In recent days, Meta and Telegram have also come under regulatory scrutiny on separate issues. The government recently issued a notice to Meta regarding child sexual abuse material appearing in Instagram advertisements, while Telegram was directed to strengthen action against the circulation of pirated films, OTT content, and other copyrighted audio-visual material on its platform.

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