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Can Chabahar be a second OBOR gateway?

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NEEDED, SOME PROACTIVE DIPLOMACY: Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets President of People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping ahead of the BRICS Summit in Goa, UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Gwadar need not be the only port of ingress and egress for the China-initiated transnational road-and-rail network; the India-Iran harbour route can be safer

By Sujit Bhar

Stated positions in international diplomacy change faster than pieces in a rapid chess match.  If frequent geopolitical shifts have to be addressed, they either have to be dealt with counter-moves, or through the opening of an alternative, surreptitious and camouflaged line of attack.

There is no defeat in international diplomacy, till you concede one.

The India-China position vis-à-vis the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative can reach a dead end if India cannot find that alternative route fast. The Chabahar Port route rests in a confused state as of now.

While in April Union minister Nitin Gadkari said work on the port is moving fast and that India has now got a two-year management contract for the port, India’s promise of a $ 500 million investment seems to be on a slippery surface, post problems arising out of Iran’s delaying tactics in awarding gas exploration contract in its Farzad B offshore field to ONGC Videsh. This was one by-product India was looking for within the Chabahar Port deal.

As per published reports, India has decided to reduce oil imports from Iran by three million tonnes, which translates to approximately 25 percent of the oil India imports from Iran. With India sourcing almost six percent of all its oil from that country, India will have to seek an alternative route. With oil prices down, this might not be such a problem, but Iran has not taken kindly to its second-largest customer (after China), cutting back on purchases. It has retaliated by cutting India’s payment schedule from 90 days to 30, as well as cutting back on freight discounts.

If one looks at these as pure business decisions, then there is no problem. Differences arise before they are solved. However, this seems to be connected to India’s political aspirations. Isolating Pakistan isn’t proving to be so easy. If Iran does think joining OBOR would be beneficial for it, a quick change of stance with respect to Pakistan would not be difficult. While India has several running defence deals with Iran, Iran has shown no bad intentions regarding Pakistan.

There is said to be a clause in India’s 16-year-old defence deal with Iran, which reportedly says that India might be given access to Iranian military bases in the event of a war with Pakistan. This, however, has not been openly confirmed by either country, which puts the viability of the deal into unknown territory.

AN OVERVIEW: A map pinpointing the locations of Chabahar and Gwadar ports

AN OVERVIEW: A map pinpointing the locations of Chabahar and Gwadar ports

Hence Iran’s intentions, as expected, revolve around its own interests. The Chabahar Port will be a value addition for Iran. If the CPEC goes forward, joining Gwadar Port with the overall OBOR system, how much latitude can India gain from the Chabahar port connecting Afghanistan, while staying away from OBOR?

Frankly, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision cannot be wished away by India. India would expect to get a better understanding of the OBOR initiative from the inside and not from a spectator’s perspective. That China has taken the lead in world geopolitics and across the financial world cannot be denied by India. There is little point in being an ostrich in a changing world. There are no stated positions.

India’s stated position about PoK need not change if there is a move towards accepting OBOR as inevitable, and in a partnership offer, one has to take financial options into consideration while dealing with the issue. Prime Minister Narendra Modi would need a face-saver, surely, because the opposition would be screaming murder if India agrees to attend the upcoming OBOR meet. But here is the dig. If OBOR is developed through partnership, and not through the primary dictates of China, there is a possibility that India can press for its own security system for its goods through the disturbed Baloch, PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan regions.

Let this be a practical discussion. Can India, though any international forum, possibly stop Chinese-Pakistani construction in disputed areas for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which happens to be an integral part of OBOR? One guesses not.

And, as China claims, will India’s not attending the OBOR meet completely isolate India? I guess not, too. This will also remain in the region of probability. However, there is a catch. If OBOR is an unqualified success, any late entry effort would not only require cost, but also present a positioning problem for India.

What if India sends an unqualified “yes” signal? Technically, that would mean accepting all existing norms, including, possibly, discussions on the Kashmir issue with a third party, something India has consistently refused to accede to. That would be the end of Modi’s tenure at the top.

What is the midway? Possibly sending a low-powered delegation to the OBOR meet? That would provide representation without accountability, because such a delegation would lack the authority to make decisions. In other words it would result in dragging feet, but India has huge experience in this. Any opportunity unexplored is no opportunity. If India refuses to acknowledge OBOR, its voice on PoK will be rarely heard.

There is a chance of forcing a change from within, and Chabahar is as good an entry and exit point for goods on OBOR as Gwadar. Does that sound like an alternative position? Two things to consider here. Xi has improved relations with Iran several-fold through his visit of the country. OBOR does not need to have just the CPEC route to use. What if it can use both? What if India can place a quick proposal that India’s proposed route can also connect to OBOR?

This is a disruptive thought. Floating it would be difficult, but not impossible. Could we think about this? India has invested in Chabahar and in developing railway lines to the north. OBOR will happen. While the CPEC is fraught with dangers, the India-Iran-Afghanistan route can be safer.

Let’s make the best use of it.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Delhi LG VK Saxena directs probe into remarks against Kangana Ranaut by Congress leader Supriya Shrinate

The Delhi Police will investigate who was behind the said social media post and whose mobile phone was used for the purpose.

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Delhi lieutenant governor Vinai Kumar Saxena today sought a detailed probe from Delhi Police commissioner Sanjay Arora in relation with the alleged defamatory social media post made by Congress’s Supriya Shrinate against actor-turned-politician Kangana Ranaut.

Reportedly, BJP candidate from New Delhi Bansuri Swaraj had given a complaint to the LG seeking probe and registration of an FIR against Shrinate for outraging the modesty of a woman. Subsequently, the Delhi LG has forwarded the complaint to the Delhi Police Commissioner, directing a scientific investigation in the matter and initiation of legal action, if necessary.

Reports said that the Delhi Police will also investigate who was behind the said social media post and whose mobile phone was used for the purpose. A major controversy erupted on Monday after an objectionable post from Supriya Shrinate’s social media handle against Kangana Ranaut, who has been announced as the BJP candidate from Himachal Pradesh’s Mandi.

Responding to the remarks, Kangana Ranaut said that they must free the daughters from the shackles of prejudices and must rise above the curiosity about their body parts. She added that people must refrain from using sex workers’ challenging lives or circumstances as some kind of abuse or slur. She concluded that every woman deserves her dignity. As the controversy intensified, the Congress leader asserted that someone else had posted the objectionable content from her handle. 

Meanwhile, the Election Commission on Wednesday issued a show cause notice to Congress leader Supriya Shrinate for her derogatory remarks against Kangana Ranaut. The Election Commission observed that the remarks are undignified and in a bad taste. The election body asked the Congress leader to respond to the commission by Friday. In the notice, the Election Commission stated that the statements made by the leader is prima facie violative of the Model Code of Conduct (MCC) being in force ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. 

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Bollywood actor Govinda joins Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena

Govinda on his official induction in the party by CM Eknath Shinde said he is joining Shiv Sena and it is a blessing from God. He said he thought he would not enter politics again. Govinda said Mumbai looks cleaner and better now.

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Bollywood actor Govinda joined Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena on Thursday ahead of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra. In 2004 Govinda contested from Mumbai North Lok Sabha on a Congress ticket and earned the nickname of a giant slayer as he defeated BJP’s Ram Naik. He resigned from the party and said that he had decided to take a break from politics.

Govinda on his official induction in the party by CM Eknath Shinde said he is joining Shiv Sena and it is a blessing from God. He said he thought he would not enter politics again. Govinda said Mumbai looks cleaner and better now. He said his parents had a good relationship with Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray.

Shiv Sena leader Krishna Hedge met the Bollywood actor at his residence in Juhu. Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde said the actor’s joining the Shiv Sena does not come with a rider. Govinda said whatever work is assigned to him, he will do it to the best of the ability. He said he was a part of the 14th Lok Sabha and has returned to politics after 14 years.

Speaking about his role in politics, the actor said he would transform the film city of Mumbai. He did not reply when he was asked about contesting elections. Govinda said everybody has seen the same level of progress in Maharashtra in the last 2 years, as it has been seen in the country in the last 10 years. He said he is going to focus on the beautification of the state and work towards the growth of art and culture.

Rajya Sabha MP Milind Deora welcomed Govida into the party and said he has known the veteran Bollywood actor for almost 25 years. He recalled the 2004 election and said both of them had fought elections together.

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To browbeat, bully others is vintage Congress, says PM Modi after lawyers express concern over attempts to undermine judiciary

Lawyers, including Harish Salve and Bar Council chairperson Manan Kumar Mishra, wrote to CJI DY Chandrachud, alleging that a vested interest group is trying to put pressure on the judiciary and defame courts, particularly in cases of corruption involving politicians.

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PM Narendra Modi on Thursday launched a scathing attack on the Congress party after more than 600 lawyers and some bar associations across the country wrote to the Chief Justice DY Chandrachud, expressing concerns over attempts to undermine the judiciary’s integrity using political and professional pressure.

Taking to social media platform X, PM Modi wrote that to browbeat and bully others is vintage Congress culture. He recalled that five decades ago, the party itself had called for a committed judiciary, adding that they shamelessly want commitment from others for their selfish interests, but desist from any commitment towards the nation. He concluded that no wonder, 140 crore Indians are rejecting them.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s comments followed after lawyers, including Harish Salve and Bar Council chairperson Manan Kumar Mishra, wrote to CJI DY Chandrachud, alleging that a vested interest group is trying to put pressure on the judiciary and defame courts, particularly in cases of corruption involving politicians.

The lawyers said the tactics used by the vested interest group are damaging the courts and threatening democratic fabric. They stated that Chief Justice Chandrachud’s leadership is crucial in these tough times and the Supreme Court should stand strong, adding it is not the time to maintain dignified silence.

Without naming, the letter also targeted a section of lawyers and alleged they defend politicians by day and then try to influence judges through the media at night. Furthermore, they claimed that some elements are trying to influence who the judges are in their cases and spread lies on social media to put pressure on the judges to decide in a particular way.

In addition, the All Manipur Bar Association had also written to CJI DY Chandrachud highlighting the need to speak out against underhanded attacks on the judiciary on Wednesday. In its letter, the bar association said that it was extremely concerned about recent trends where vested interest groups were trying to defame the courts with frivolous logic and stale political agendas.

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