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Indian exporters may face higher tariff under Trump’s America First agenda

The US stands as India’s largest trading partner, with annual trade exceeding $190 billion.

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With Donald Trump all set to become the 47th President of the United States, Indian exporters may face high customs duties on products such as automobiles, textiles, and pharmaceuticals if the new administration pursues its “America First” agenda, according to trade experts.

The experts have also indicated that Trump might tighten H-1B visa regulations, which could raise costs and hinder growth for Indian IT companies. With over 80 per cent of India’s IT export revenues stemming from the US, these changes could make the sector vulnerable to shifts in visa policy.

The US stands as India’s largest trading partner, with annual trade exceeding $190 billion.

Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), said that Trump might extend tariffs beyond China to include India and other nations, citing Trump’s earlier statement that India is a large tariff abuser and his October 2020 statement labeling the country as the tariff king. These comments hint at the likelihood of more challenging trade negotiations during Trump’s second term.

“His America First strategy is expected to advocate for protective measures, including reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, which could hinder key exports such as automobiles, textiles, and pharmaceuticals, diminishing their competitiveness in the US market,” Srivastava stated.

However, he also said that a tougher US policy towards China could potentially open up new markets for Indian exporters.

The bilateral trade in goods between the two countries stood at $120 billion in 2023-24 as against $129.4 billion in 2022-23.

A GTRI report had earlier stated that according to WTO’s World Tariff Profiles 2023, the US also imposes high duties on items like dairy products (188 per cent), Fruits and vegetables (132 per cent), cereals and food preparations (193 per cent), oilseeds, fats and oils (164 per cent), beverages and tobacco (150 per cent).

International trade expert Biswajit Dhar remarked that Trump is likely to increase tariffs across different sectors to fulfill his MAGA (Make America Great Again) mandate. “With Trump’s return to power, we are headed toward a new era of protectionism,” Dhar predicted, pointing out that sectors such as electronics might be adversely affected.

Furthermore, Dhar raised concerns about the future of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), emphasising, based on Trump’s past decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), there may be uncertainty surrounding IPEF’s stability. Launched on May 23, 2022, the 14-nation bloc could face challenges ahead.

Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO), stated, “While we might see Trump advocating for more balanced trade, disputes around tariffs are likely to arise amid rising protectionist trends and stricter immigration policies.”

Agneshwar Sen, Partner for Tax and Economic Policy (International Trade) at EY India, said that the US might strategically implement high tariffs to promote domestic manufacturing and adjust existing supply chains, potentially leading to increased tariffs on Indian exports such as textiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and engineering products.

“India may need to look for alternative markets, which would be challenging, or consider retaliatory tariffs on US exports. Alternatively, we should prepare for a trade deal that is appealing to the US, not only protecting our existing interests but also facilitating new opportunities,” Sen noted.

Additionally, Srivastava pointed out that Trump’s concerns regarding outsourcing could result in policy changes affecting IT exports. H-1B visa regulations are crucial for facilitating the movement of skilled IT professionals from India. “A stricter immigration approach from Trump could potentially alter visa rules, thereby raising costs for Indian IT companies,” he explained, PTI reported.

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NDA wins Maharashtra, INDIA Jharkhand

After a sweeping victory in Maharashtra, Eknath Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar have held a press conference in Mumbai.

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The NDA on Saturday won the Maharashtra Assembly election with 235 seats, while the Opposition bloc INDIA retained in Jharkhand with 56 seats.

In Maharashtra, the ruling Mahayuti alliance, consisting of the BJP, Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction, and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, won 235 of the 288 Assembly seats, while the Maha Vikas Aghadi secured 49 seats, and Others 4.

In Jharkhand, the JMM-Congress coalition won 56 of the 81 Assembly seats, while the BJP-led alliance had 24 seats, and Other 1.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the development and good governance after NDA’s victory in Maharashtra. He also thanked the people of Jharkhand for their support and congratulated JMM-Congress for their victory.

Addressing BJP workers at party headquarters in Delhi, PM Modi said: “It is the victory of development, good governance and social justice in Maharashtra, and it is the defeat of negative politics and dynastic politics.”

Union Home Minister Amit Shah expressed gratitude to the people of Maharashtra for the “historic victory” of the Mahayuti alliance in the state polls and said that by giving such a huge mandate to the NDA, people have shut shops of “fake well-wishers of the Constitution”.

As the JMM-led alliance gained victory in the Jharkhand Assembly elections, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi extended his heartfelt gratitude to the people of Jharkhand and congratulated Chief Minister Hemant Soren for the victory.

In a post on X in Hindi, Gandhi said: “Heartfelt thanks to the people of Jharkhand for giving a huge mandate to INDIA alliance. Hearty congratulations and best wishes to Chief Minister Hemant Soren ji and all the workers of Congress and JMM for this victory. This victory of the alliance in the state is a victory for the protection of water, forest and land along with the Constitution. The results of Maharashtra are unexpected and we will analyse them in detail. Thanks to all the voter brothers and sisters of the state for their support and to all the workers for their hard work.”

In her debut, Priyanka Gandhi won the Wayanad Lok Sabha seats in the byelection with a bigger margin than her brother and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. She fills the vacancy left by Rahul when he choose Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh.

Taking to X, she said: “I am overwhelmed with gratitude for the trust you have placed in me. I will make sure that over time, you truly feel this victory has been your victory and the person you chose to represent you understands your hopes and dreams and fights for you as one of your own. I look forward to being your voice in Parliament!”

In a press conference in Ranchi, Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren said: “In some places, vote counting has concluded and in some places, the counting is still going on. We can see that the INDIA alliance is performing really well. I thank the voters of the state, including women, men, youth, farmers and people of various castes and religions for casting their votes.”

After a sweeping victory in Maharashtra, Eknath Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar have held a press conference in Mumbai.

“The people of Maharashtra have prioritised development and delivered a decisive mandate to the Mahayuti alliance. We express our gratitude to the citizens of Maharashtra,” stated Ajit Pawar.

Devendra Fadnavis stated that the alliance acknowledges the support of the people of Maharashtra. “This victory heightens our responsibilities. We are committed to fulfilling the expectations placed upon us.”

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, who significantly contributed to his party Shiv Sena’s strong showing in the Assembly elections, secured victory in his Kopri-Pachpakhadi constituency in Thane by a notable margin of 120,000 votes.

Assam Chief Minister and BJP co-in-charge for the elections, Himanta Biswa Sarma, extended his congratulations to Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren and his team for achieving an “impressive victory” in the 2024 Assembly elections.

Addressing the media from Matoshree, Uddhav Thackeray raised questions about the rationale behind the public’s support for Mahayuti, stating, “Why have the people voted for Mahayuti? Soybean farmers are in distress, industries are migrating to Gujarat, women’s safety is still an issue, inflation is burdening households, and crop loan waivers remain absent. This isn’t just a wave…it’s a ‘tsunami’.”

On Mahayuti’s victory in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, Madhya Pradesh Minister Kailash Vijayvargiya voiced his support for Fadnavis as the chief ministerial candidate for the neighbouring state.

Meanwhile, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis clarified that there is no conflict over the chief minister’s position, emphasising that leaders within Mahayuti will collectively decide on the matter, considering the coalition’s anticipated landslide victory.

Explaining the reason behind the Maha Vikas Aghadi defeat in the Assembly polls, CPI (Marxist) leader Ashok Dhawale noted that the overconfidence of the MVA following the Lok Sabha results, delayed finalising seat-sharing arrangements, and internal conflicts have led to the defeat of the alliance. In contrast, the BJP and its allies effectively utilised communal polarisation and financial resources, he said.

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Congress says Jharkhand rejected politics of polarisation, Maharashtra result surprising

The results have come, and it is unexpected in Maharashtra, he added.

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Extolling the people of Jharkhand for rejecting the politics of polarisation and giving a mandate to the Opposition bloc INDIA, the Congress on Saturday said the state has shown a new way and sent a positive message to the entire nation. It added that the result of the Maharashtra Assembly election was surprising and inexplicable for the grand old party.

Addressing a press conference, Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said what not were said during political campaigns by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

He said the whole election was fought on one word- infiltrators, adding that BJP tried to create fear, but people responded in a decisive manner. “It is also a positive message for the entire country that the politics of polarisation can be defeated,” he added.

In Maharashtra, without a doubt, in a targeted manner, the level playing field, the word that the Election Commission of India uses, was disturbed, Ramesh alleged. The results have come, and it is unexpected in Maharashtra, he added.

Ramesh, the Congress general secretary in-charge communications, said the party will keep raising questions on electoral transparency. He reiterated the party’s stands on caste census, saying, “We won and lost today but Congress’ agenda will not change and will keep raising issues of caste census.”

BJP-led Mahayuti is all set to form a government in Maharashtra, while JMM-led will retain for the second term.  

Jharkhand Chief Minister, addressing a press conference in Ranchi after crossing the majority mark in the state, said: “In some places, vote counting has concluded and in some places, the counting is still going on. We can see that INDIA alliance is performing really well. I thank the voters of the state, including women, men, youth, farmers and people of various castes and religion for casting their votes.”

Jharkhand Congress in-charge Ghulam Ahmad Mir, sitting beside CM Soren, said: “I want to thank you all. You are a witness to the Jharkhand elections. We told in the beginning that the people of Jharkhand are courageous, and matured in terms of politics. During our campaigning, we had put our work in front of the people. The judge was the people of Jharkhand.”  

Mir asserted that Hemant Soren is the Chief Minister of Jharkhand, will continue to remain so.

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PM Modi hails development, good governance after NDA’s Maharashtra win, congratulates JMM-Congress

The Prime Minister expressed heartfelt gratitude to the people of Maharashtra, especially the youth and the women for their historic mandate.

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PM Modi hails development, good governance after NDA’s Maharashtra win, congratulates JMM-Congress

As the BJP led Mahayuti coalition is set to win in Maharashtra Assembly Elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed development and good governance. He also thanked the people of Jharkhand for their support, and congratulated JMM – Congress for their victory.

Taking to social media platform X, the Prime Minister expressed heartfelt gratitude to the people of Maharashtra, especially the youth and the women for their historic mandate. He added that development and good governance wins, mentioning that united they will soar even higher.

In another tweet, PM Modi stated that NDA’s pro-people efforts will resonate all over. He thanked people across various states for blessing NDA candidates in several by-polls, adding that they will leave no stone unturned in fulfilling their dreams and aspirations. He expressed that he is very proud of every NDA worker for their efforts on the ground. He underlined that the NDA workers worked hard, went among people and elaborated on good governance agenda. 

In Maharashtra, the Mahayuti is on the way for a thumping victory. The alliance is leading in 233 of the state’s 288 Assembly seats. Meanwhile, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi is leading in only 50 seats.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi also thanked the people of Jharkhand for their support towards NDA. He assured that his party will always be at the forefront of raising people’s issues and working for the state. He also congratulated the JMM-led alliance for their performance in the state. 

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is set to lose to the JMM-led INDIA bloc. The state’s ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, a Congress ally at the state and central level, is leading in 57 of 81 seats and the NDA in 23.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh also thanked the people of Maharashtra for their historic mandate. 

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