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Gujarat heading towards a photo finish, BJP-Congress tie on vote share: ABP-CSDS poll

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ABP-CSDS opinion poll shows BJP marginally ahead in race for forming government in Gujarat but Congress is fast bridging the gap in Prime Minister’s home state

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP national president Amit Shah may be crying hoarse claiming that their party was once again on way to victory – winning 150 seats – in their home state of Gujarat, but if the latest Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News opinion poll on the Gujarat Assembly polls is anything to go by, then the Congress is fast gaining political ground in the western state.

The opinion poll shows that the BJP and Congress could both end up with a 43 per cent vote share in the elections – due in two phases scheduled for December 9 and 14 – and that the saffron party could manage to retain power just by the skin of its teeth – winning between 91 and 99 seats in the 182-member state assembly. The Congress, according to the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News opinion poll, is likely to finish a very close second, winning between 78 and 86 seats with the remaining going to independents and others.

If the opinion poll is anywhere close to the ground reality, then they mean a huge boost for the Congress whose campaign in Gujarat is being led by the party’s ‘president-elect’ Rahul Gandhi. The opinion poll suggests that the Congress, riding high on an anti-incumbency wave coupled with the support of Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakore, is looking at its best ever performance in Gujarat since 1995, when the BJP romped to power in the state and has remained undefeated ever since.

Nearly all aspects of the poll show that the BJP has every cause to be worried in Gujarat – something that seems closer to reality considering that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah’s campaign rallies in their home state have now been marked not by massive crowds but by a huge number of empty chairs.

This is the third in a series of opinion polls that the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News combine has conducted in Gujarat since early August this year and the latest findings reveal a steady upswing in voter sentiment towards the Congress party. While the first opinion poll done by the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News had predicted a vote-share of 29 per cent for the Congress against 59 per cent for the BJP, the second poll showed the Congress moving towards a 41 per cent vote share while the BJP’s share plummeting to 47 per cent. With the BJP and Congress both pegged at a 43 per cent vote share according to the latest survey, the Grand Old Party has managed to – at least as per the opinion poll – increase its support among the voters by an impressive 14 per cent in just the past four months while the BJP seems to have lost support of 16 per cent of the electorate. It is pertinent to note that in the first-past-the-post system of elections that India follows; even a one percentage point swing can often change the course of a party’s electoral fortunes from definite defeat to an assured victory.

What is a greater cause of worry for the BJP perhaps is its rapidly eroding popularity in not just the state’s rural areas – which usually favoured the Congress even when the party faced humiliating defeats – but also in the urban areas which have long been considered the BJP’s main votebank, irrespective of caste-equations.

The opinion poll released on Monday showed that while the Congress was expanding on its already strong bastion of north Gujarat, it was also making significant leads in the southern part of the state, while the BJP, although ahead in central Gujarat and the Saurashtra region was also fast losing voter support in these traditional strongholds.

In central Gujarat, Congress is predicted to get 38 per cent votes against the BJP’s 54 per cent while in north Gujarat, the Congress is expected to fetch 49 per cent of votes while the BJP could be limited at 44 per cent.

Significantly, the survey shows that the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dipped by 18 points from 82 per cent in August to 64 per cent in November among the voters of his home state. During the same period, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has risen from 40 per cent in August to 57 per cent.

The dip in the BJP’s lead can be partly attributed to anger among traders – a community that constitutes a huge chunk of Gujarat’s electorate. The survey claims that though in October the BJP had a lead of four points among traders; the poll conducted last month showed the trend reversing, with the Congress now getting 43 per cent of the community’s votes as opposed to the BJP’s 40 per cent. This is apparently an indication that the trader community is buying into Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi’s poll pitch of demonetisation and the GST rollout having spelt doom for their business.

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India News

Election Commission responds after Kejriwal questions BJP’s involvement in home voting process

Upon approval, a polling team, comprising election officials and security personnel, will visit the voter’s residence prior to election day to facilitate the voting process.

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The Election Commission of India (ECI) issued a detailed clarification regarding the home voting facility for the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections scheduled for February 5, 2025. This initiative, designed to enhance accessibility for senior citizens (over 85 years old) and persons with disabilities (PwD), requires eligible voters to submit Form 12D to apply.

Upon approval, a polling team, comprising election officials and security personnel, will visit the voter’s residence prior to election day to facilitate the voting process.

Crucially, the ECI clarified that candidates or their authorized representatives will be permitted to accompany the polling team during these home visits. This provision addresses concerns raised by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal, who had previously highlighted a video showing BJP representatives present during a home voting event.

While the ECI statement did not directly mention Kejriwal or any specific political party, the inclusion of candidate representatives aims to ensure transparency and alleviate concerns about potential irregularities. The commission’s statement emphasizes that the presence of representatives is permissible to uphold fairness and prevent any accusations of undue influence.

The ECI has received a significant number of applications for this facility: 6,447 from senior citizens and 1,058 from PwD voters. To date, 1,271 senior citizens and 120 PwD voters have already cast their ballots through this home voting system. The process itself involves the polling team providing the voter with a ballot paper, overseeing the casting of the vote, and ensuring strict adherence to ECI guidelines regarding confidentiality. To maintain transparency and accountability, the entire process is recorded on video.

The ECI unequivocally stated that participation in the home voting option is entirely voluntary. Voters choosing this method will not be allowed to cast their vote at a regular polling station on election day.

The commission reiterated its commitment to conducting free and fair elections and underscored the importance of this initiative in promoting inclusive participation in the democratic process. Voters facing any difficulties are urged to contact their local Returning Officer (RO) or district Election Officer (DEO), or utilize the central helpline at 1950.

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India News

76th Republic Day: US sends warm wishes to India, says defining relationship of the 21st century

The meeting with his Quad counterparts—External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar of India, Takeshi Iwaya of Japan, and Penny Wong of Australia—focused on enhancing economic opportunities and ensuring peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. It served as a practical demonstration of the commitment to the strategic vision articulated in his Republic Day statement.

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The United States marked India’s 76th Republic Day with effusive praise, highlighting the enduring strength of the world’s largest democracy and the burgeoning partnership between the two nations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a statement released on the occasion, extended warm congratulations to the people of India, emphasizing the significance of the Indian Constitution as the bedrock of this vibrant democracy. He went beyond simple well-wishes, however, painting a picture of a rapidly strengthening bilateral relationship destined for even greater heights.

Rubio’s statement explicitly described the US-India partnership as “the defining relationship of the 21st century,” a bold assertion reflecting the growing strategic alignment and mutual economic interests between the two nations. This statement was not merely ceremonial; it underscored the deepening cooperation across various sectors, from space research to joint efforts within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).

The Quad, comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia, received significant attention in Rubio’s remarks. He emphasized the alliance’s crucial role in promoting a “free, open, and prosperous” Indo-Pacific region, a clear signal of the shared commitment to counterbalancing China’s influence in the region.

This emphasis was reinforced by Rubio’s actions earlier in the week, hosting a crucial meeting of Quad foreign ministers at the US Department of State. This meeting, his first official engagement as Secretary of State, underscored the immediate priority given to strengthening the Quad alliance and its collaborative efforts.

The meeting with his Quad counterparts—External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar of India, Takeshi Iwaya of Japan, and Penny Wong of Australia—focused on enhancing economic opportunities and ensuring peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. It served as a practical demonstration of the commitment to the strategic vision articulated in his Republic Day statement.

Furthermore, Secretary Rubio’s bilateral meeting with External Affairs Minister Jaishankar in Washington D.C. further cemented the strengthening ties between the two countries. The discussions covered a broad range of topics, including regional issues and avenues for further deepening the US-India relationship.

A notable point of discussion, as highlighted in an official press release, included a shared commitment to addressing concerns related to irregular migration, an area of mutual interest requiring collaborative solutions. This commitment, alongside the focus on economic ties, demonstrated the multifaceted nature of the burgeoning partnership, extending beyond strategic security concerns.

India’s own Republic Day celebrations showcased the nation’s unique blend of cultural diversity, unity, and military strength. The grand parade on Kartavya Path served as a vivid display of national pride and the successful integration of diverse elements into a cohesive and powerful nation. The presence of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto as the Chief Guest further underscored India’s growing global influence and its capacity to foster strong relationships with key international partners.

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India News

Ratan Tata featured in Jharkhand’s Republic Day tableau, pic surfaces

By celebrating both its industrial achievements and its vibrant cultural traditions, the tableau offered a nuanced and multifaceted portrayal of Jharkhand, highlighting its progress while deeply respecting its heritage.

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Jharkhand’s Republic Day tableau, a vibrant spectacle of colour and movement, presented a compelling narrative of the state’s journey from its rich heritage to its remarkable progress. The tableau, aptly titled “Swarnim Jharkhand: A Tradition of Heritage and Progress,” served as a powerful visual testament to the state’s multifaceted identity. Central to this narrative was the pivotal role played by the late industrialist, Ratan Tata, whose visionary leadership laid the groundwork for much of Jharkhand’s subsequent development.

The tableau’s design was meticulously crafted to showcase this multifaceted narrative. At its heart was Jamshedpur, India’s first planned industrial city, a legacy of Tata’s pioneering efforts. This iconic city, depicted in vivid detail, served as a powerful symbol of industrial growth and modernization. However, the tableau astutely avoided portraying a solely industrial narrative. It carefully integrated elements celebrating Jharkhand’s cultural richness and its commitment to social progress.

A striking image of two young girls engaged with laptop computers underscored Jharkhand’s significant strides in education. This symbolized the state’s dedication to expanding educational access, particularly for tribal children in both urban and rural areas, representing a crucial investment in the future.

The tableau cleverly juxtaposed this modern image with vibrant representations of traditional art forms. Sohrai and Khobar paintings, meticulously crafted by tribal artists, were displayed prominently, showcasing the enduring legacy of Jharkhand’s artistic heritage. Adding to the spectacle, performers enacted the energetic Chhau dance of Seraikela, a captivating dance form deeply rooted in the state’s cultural identity.

The tableau also subtly highlighted the contributions of women in Jharkhand’s economic landscape, acknowledging their significant role in generating employment and driving economic growth. This balanced depiction of industrial progress and cultural preservation made the tableau a truly comprehensive representation of Jharkhand’s identity.

By celebrating both its industrial achievements and its vibrant cultural traditions, the tableau offered a nuanced and multifaceted portrayal of Jharkhand, highlighting its progress while deeply respecting its heritage.

The inclusion of the Jaduguda uranium plant subtly acknowledged the state’s contribution to India’s nuclear energy program. In essence, the tableau was a powerful and memorable celebration of Jharkhand’s journey, skillfully weaving together its past, present, and future.

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