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Gujarat heading towards a photo finish, BJP-Congress tie on vote share: ABP-CSDS poll

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ABP-CSDS opinion poll shows BJP marginally ahead in race for forming government in Gujarat but Congress is fast bridging the gap in Prime Minister’s home state

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP national president Amit Shah may be crying hoarse claiming that their party was once again on way to victory – winning 150 seats – in their home state of Gujarat, but if the latest Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News opinion poll on the Gujarat Assembly polls is anything to go by, then the Congress is fast gaining political ground in the western state.

The opinion poll shows that the BJP and Congress could both end up with a 43 per cent vote share in the elections – due in two phases scheduled for December 9 and 14 – and that the saffron party could manage to retain power just by the skin of its teeth – winning between 91 and 99 seats in the 182-member state assembly. The Congress, according to the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News opinion poll, is likely to finish a very close second, winning between 78 and 86 seats with the remaining going to independents and others.

If the opinion poll is anywhere close to the ground reality, then they mean a huge boost for the Congress whose campaign in Gujarat is being led by the party’s ‘president-elect’ Rahul Gandhi. The opinion poll suggests that the Congress, riding high on an anti-incumbency wave coupled with the support of Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakore, is looking at its best ever performance in Gujarat since 1995, when the BJP romped to power in the state and has remained undefeated ever since.

Nearly all aspects of the poll show that the BJP has every cause to be worried in Gujarat – something that seems closer to reality considering that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah’s campaign rallies in their home state have now been marked not by massive crowds but by a huge number of empty chairs.

This is the third in a series of opinion polls that the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News combine has conducted in Gujarat since early August this year and the latest findings reveal a steady upswing in voter sentiment towards the Congress party. While the first opinion poll done by the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News had predicted a vote-share of 29 per cent for the Congress against 59 per cent for the BJP, the second poll showed the Congress moving towards a 41 per cent vote share while the BJP’s share plummeting to 47 per cent. With the BJP and Congress both pegged at a 43 per cent vote share according to the latest survey, the Grand Old Party has managed to – at least as per the opinion poll – increase its support among the voters by an impressive 14 per cent in just the past four months while the BJP seems to have lost support of 16 per cent of the electorate. It is pertinent to note that in the first-past-the-post system of elections that India follows; even a one percentage point swing can often change the course of a party’s electoral fortunes from definite defeat to an assured victory.

What is a greater cause of worry for the BJP perhaps is its rapidly eroding popularity in not just the state’s rural areas – which usually favoured the Congress even when the party faced humiliating defeats – but also in the urban areas which have long been considered the BJP’s main votebank, irrespective of caste-equations.

The opinion poll released on Monday showed that while the Congress was expanding on its already strong bastion of north Gujarat, it was also making significant leads in the southern part of the state, while the BJP, although ahead in central Gujarat and the Saurashtra region was also fast losing voter support in these traditional strongholds.

In central Gujarat, Congress is predicted to get 38 per cent votes against the BJP’s 54 per cent while in north Gujarat, the Congress is expected to fetch 49 per cent of votes while the BJP could be limited at 44 per cent.

Significantly, the survey shows that the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dipped by 18 points from 82 per cent in August to 64 per cent in November among the voters of his home state. During the same period, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has risen from 40 per cent in August to 57 per cent.

The dip in the BJP’s lead can be partly attributed to anger among traders – a community that constitutes a huge chunk of Gujarat’s electorate. The survey claims that though in October the BJP had a lead of four points among traders; the poll conducted last month showed the trend reversing, with the Congress now getting 43 per cent of the community’s votes as opposed to the BJP’s 40 per cent. This is apparently an indication that the trader community is buying into Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi’s poll pitch of demonetisation and the GST rollout having spelt doom for their business.

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BJP to launch 5,000-km Parivartan Yatra across West Bengal ahead of Assembly elections

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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will begin its large-scale ‘Parivartan Yatra’ in poll-bound West Bengal from Sunday, marking a major political outreach drive ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections.

The party said the campaign is designed to mobilise support across the state and counter what it alleges has been more than a decade of “corrupt, undemocratic, and anti-people governance” under the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC).

Statewide mobilisation across nine divisions

According to party leaders, the Yatra will be conducted simultaneously in all nine organisational divisions of West Bengal. The outreach programme is expected to cover nearly 5,000 kilometres, passing through 38 organisational districts and more than 230 Assembly constituencies.

The BJP estimates the initiative will generate over one crore direct public touchpoints, focusing heavily on face-to-face interactions and grassroots engagement. As part of the campaign plan, the party has scheduled 63 large rallies and 281 welcome meetings at key entry points of Assembly constituencies.

With the slogan “Paltano Dorkar, Chai BJP Sorkar”, the party has framed the Yatra as both an electoral campaign and a broader political movement aimed at strengthening its organisational presence across the state.

Focus on governance, law and order, and corruption

The party’s messaging during the Yatra will centre on governance, accountability, and systemic reforms. BJP leaders plan to raise concerns related to women’s safety, alleged corruption in the education sector, including teacher recruitment issues, and what they describe as threats to national security.

Party sources indicated that demographic changes, illegal infiltration, and the presence of extremist elements in border districts will also be key themes during the campaign.

In rural areas, the outreach will emphasise agricultural infrastructure, implementation of centrally sponsored schemes, and removal of intermediaries. In urban regions, the narrative will focus on industrial development, youth employment, and improvements in urban transport systems.

Senior leaders to participate

More than 100 senior leaders from the central and state units are expected to be involved in the Yatra. The inaugural phase, scheduled for Sunday and Monday, will feature five launch events on the first day and four on the second.

Senior BJP leaders including Amit Shah, JP Nadda, Rajnath Singh, Dharmendra Pradhan, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, and Nitin Nabin are expected to attend various programmes during the campaign.

After a short break for Holi, the Yatra will resume from March 5 to March 10, with each unit operating for approximately nine hours daily. The campaign is set to culminate in a major public meeting at Kolkata’s Brigade Ground, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to address supporters.

The BJP is positioning the Parivartan Yatra as a significant step in reshaping the political landscape of West Bengal as the state moves closer to the Assembly elections.

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BJP alliances in Assam likely to be sealed by March 10

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Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has indicated that the alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is expected to be finalised by March 10 ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections.

The AGP, a long-time ally of the BJP in Assam, is also a founding member of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Discussions between the partners are progressing, with indications that the formal announcement could come within days.

Sources said there could be “friendly fights” between the BJP and AGP in a few constituencies. Such arrangements may be considered to accommodate local-level aspirations and party workers from both sides.

The BJP is also likely to conclude seat-sharing discussions with the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) by March 10. In the previous Assembly election, the BPF had aligned with the Indian National Congress (Congress), but it has now returned to the NDA fold.

However, seat-sharing talks between the BJP and its other Bodoland-region partner, the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), are reportedly facing hurdles. Earlier, Mr Sarma had stated that the UPPL would not join hands with the Congress.

On the opposition side, the Congress is dealing with its own alliance challenges. Negotiations with Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal are underway, but sources suggested that discussions have not been progressing smoothly.

Congress sources said seat-sharing arrangements with the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Left parties are almost finalised. An official announcement is awaited from the party’s high command.

As political negotiations intensify, both the ruling NDA and the opposition camp are working to conclude alliances and seat-sharing deals in the run-up to the state polls.

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Rohit Pawar alleges big personality link in Ajit Pawar plane crash case

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Nationalist Congress Party (SP) MLA Rohit Pawar on Thursday alleged that a “big personality” was connected to the company linked to the plane crash that killed his uncle, Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, and others in Baramati last month.

Addressing reporters after holding a protest, Rohit Pawar demanded the resignation of Union Civil Aviation Minister K. Rammohan Naidu. He alleged that the minister’s party had financial links to the company involved in the crash and said he should step down from his post.

“The owner of VSR company is close to very powerful leaders. Many people in Maharashtra are connected to this. There is a clear attempt to protect VSR because some ‘big personality’ is involved in this,” Rohit Pawar said.

Demand for wider probe

The fatal aircraft accident occurred in Baramati on January 28. Following the incident, the investigation into the accidental deaths of Ajit Pawar and others was transferred to the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) of the Pune Police, considering the gravity of the case.

Rohit Pawar questioned the progress of the probe and said the public must be informed about the steps taken so far. He pointed out that the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) examines technical aspects of an aviation mishap, but not possible criminal angles.

Additional Director General of Police Sunil Ramanand said the CID investigation is exploring multiple aspects, including whether there was any foul play or sabotage behind the accident, whether criminal negligence played a role, and whether there was any larger conspiracy. He added that the AAIB report would be incorporated into the CID’s findings once received.

Family voices concerns

Referring to concerns raised by family members, Rohit Pawar said that Jay Pawar, Ajit Pawar’s son, had expressed doubts on social media regarding the aircraft’s black box. Sunetra Pawar, Ajit Pawar’s wife, has sought a probe by the Central Bureau of Investigation.

Speaking emotionally about his relationship with his uncle, Rohit Pawar said Ajit Pawar had guided him politically and personally. He added that Ajit Pawar had wished to reunite with Sharad Pawar and had recently spoken to him.

The CID continues its investigation, while awaiting the technical report from the AAIB.

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