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Gujarat heading towards a photo finish, BJP-Congress tie on vote share: ABP-CSDS poll

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ABP-CSDS opinion poll shows BJP marginally ahead in race for forming government in Gujarat but Congress is fast bridging the gap in Prime Minister’s home state

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP national president Amit Shah may be crying hoarse claiming that their party was once again on way to victory – winning 150 seats – in their home state of Gujarat, but if the latest Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News opinion poll on the Gujarat Assembly polls is anything to go by, then the Congress is fast gaining political ground in the western state.

The opinion poll shows that the BJP and Congress could both end up with a 43 per cent vote share in the elections – due in two phases scheduled for December 9 and 14 – and that the saffron party could manage to retain power just by the skin of its teeth – winning between 91 and 99 seats in the 182-member state assembly. The Congress, according to the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News opinion poll, is likely to finish a very close second, winning between 78 and 86 seats with the remaining going to independents and others.

If the opinion poll is anywhere close to the ground reality, then they mean a huge boost for the Congress whose campaign in Gujarat is being led by the party’s ‘president-elect’ Rahul Gandhi. The opinion poll suggests that the Congress, riding high on an anti-incumbency wave coupled with the support of Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakore, is looking at its best ever performance in Gujarat since 1995, when the BJP romped to power in the state and has remained undefeated ever since.

Nearly all aspects of the poll show that the BJP has every cause to be worried in Gujarat – something that seems closer to reality considering that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah’s campaign rallies in their home state have now been marked not by massive crowds but by a huge number of empty chairs.

This is the third in a series of opinion polls that the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News combine has conducted in Gujarat since early August this year and the latest findings reveal a steady upswing in voter sentiment towards the Congress party. While the first opinion poll done by the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News had predicted a vote-share of 29 per cent for the Congress against 59 per cent for the BJP, the second poll showed the Congress moving towards a 41 per cent vote share while the BJP’s share plummeting to 47 per cent. With the BJP and Congress both pegged at a 43 per cent vote share according to the latest survey, the Grand Old Party has managed to – at least as per the opinion poll – increase its support among the voters by an impressive 14 per cent in just the past four months while the BJP seems to have lost support of 16 per cent of the electorate. It is pertinent to note that in the first-past-the-post system of elections that India follows; even a one percentage point swing can often change the course of a party’s electoral fortunes from definite defeat to an assured victory.

What is a greater cause of worry for the BJP perhaps is its rapidly eroding popularity in not just the state’s rural areas – which usually favoured the Congress even when the party faced humiliating defeats – but also in the urban areas which have long been considered the BJP’s main votebank, irrespective of caste-equations.

The opinion poll released on Monday showed that while the Congress was expanding on its already strong bastion of north Gujarat, it was also making significant leads in the southern part of the state, while the BJP, although ahead in central Gujarat and the Saurashtra region was also fast losing voter support in these traditional strongholds.

In central Gujarat, Congress is predicted to get 38 per cent votes against the BJP’s 54 per cent while in north Gujarat, the Congress is expected to fetch 49 per cent of votes while the BJP could be limited at 44 per cent.

Significantly, the survey shows that the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dipped by 18 points from 82 per cent in August to 64 per cent in November among the voters of his home state. During the same period, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has risen from 40 per cent in August to 57 per cent.

The dip in the BJP’s lead can be partly attributed to anger among traders – a community that constitutes a huge chunk of Gujarat’s electorate. The survey claims that though in October the BJP had a lead of four points among traders; the poll conducted last month showed the trend reversing, with the Congress now getting 43 per cent of the community’s votes as opposed to the BJP’s 40 per cent. This is apparently an indication that the trader community is buying into Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi’s poll pitch of demonetisation and the GST rollout having spelt doom for their business.

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BJP and Shiv Sena reach broad seat-sharing deal ahead of BMC elections

BJP and Shiv Sena are close to finalising seat-sharing for 200 wards ahead of the BMC elections, while opposition parties intensify alliance talks across Maharashtra.

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The BJP and Shiv Sena have almost sealed their seat-sharing arrangement for the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, with an understanding reached on 200 of the total 227 wards in Mumbai, according to sources. The civic body polls are scheduled to be held on January 15.

The agreement was discussed during a late-night meeting of the Mahayuti alliance, which includes the BJP, Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP. The meeting took place at Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s residence in Thane and focused on strategy for several key municipal corporations, including Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli and Navi Mumbai.

Sources said similar meetings are lined up for Mumbai and other civic bodies such as Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Panvel and Mira-Bhayandar, as alliance partners work to finalise ward-level arrangements and campaign planning.

Congress explores new alliances in Mumbai

In Mumbai, Congress leaders are scheduled to meet Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi as the party looks to rebuild its alliance structure after parting ways with the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray faction). The distancing followed Sena (UBT)’s decision to join hands with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena led by Raj Thackeray.

Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut has confirmed that the party will contest the BMC elections in alliance with the MNS and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar. The inclusion of the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) comes after Sharad Pawar rejected a proposal from the Ajit Pawar-led faction that offered limited seat allocation.

Despite the split, sources indicated that discussions may continue, with meetings expected between Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule and her cousin Ajit Pawar to determine future political moves.

Local body strategies take shape across Maharashtra

Meanwhile, MNS chief Raj Thackeray is set to hold a meeting with party leaders at his Shivtirth residence to finalise the party’s election strategy, including campaign issues and candidate selection.

In Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Shiv Sena MLA and minister Sanjay Shirsat will meet BJP leaders, including state ministers Chandrakant Bawankule and Atul Save, to discuss preparations for the civic polls.

Seat-sharing talks are also underway in Mira-Bhayandar, where Shiv Sena leader Pratap Sarnaik and BJP MLA Narendra Mehta are expected to hold discussions. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP, however, is planning to contest the elections independently in the region.

Panvel is set to witness a major opposition meeting involving Sena (UBT), Congress, MNS, NCP (SP), Samajwadi Party and the VBA. The gathering, led by the Peasants and Workers Party, will focus on finalising seat-sharing arrangements and joint election strategies.

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Op Aaghat 3.0: Delhi police arrest over 280 accused ahead of New Year celebrations

Delhi police arrested over 280 accused and detained more than 1,300 individuals under Operation Aaghat 3.0 ahead of New Year, seizing weapons, drugs, liquor and stolen items.

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Op Aaghat 3.0: Delhi police arrest over 280 accused ahead of New Year celebrations

Delhi police carried out a large-scale preventive crackdown across sensitive pockets of the national capital ahead of New Year, arresting hundreds of accused and detaining over a thousand individuals to ensure peaceful celebrations.

The overnight operation, conducted under Operation Aaghat 3.0, focused on crime-prone areas and resulted in major seizures, including illegal weapons, narcotics, illicit liquor, cash and stolen property, according to police officials.

Major arrests and seizures during the drive

As part of the intensified security drive, at least 285 accused were arrested under various legal provisions, including the Arms Act, Excise Act, NDPS Act and Gambling Act. In addition, 504 people were detained as a precautionary measure to prevent any untoward incidents during the festive period.

Police officials said the operation led to the recovery of 21 illegal weapons, including country-made pistols, along with 20 live cartridges and 27 knives. Authorities also seized over 12,000 quarters of illicit liquor, around Rs 2.5 lakh in cash, and nearly 7 kg of cannabis from different locations.

Focus on habitual offenders and vehicle theft

The crackdown also targeted repeat offenders. Under the operation, 116 habitual offenders, referred to by police as “bad characters,” were taken into custody, while 10 property offenders were arrested.

To curb vehicle-related crimes during New Year celebrations, police dismantled auto-lifting networks and arrested five auto-lifters. During the raids, 231 two-wheelers and one four-wheeler were seized.

Action against gambling and stolen goods

In a parallel action against gambling activities, police recovered Rs 2.3 lakh in cash. The operation also led to the recovery of about 210 stolen or lost mobile phones, offering relief to several complainants.

Apart from arrests and detentions, a total of 1,306 individuals were rounded up under preventive measures, officials added, stating that the coordinated effort was aimed at maintaining law and order and ensuring a crime-free New Year in the capital.

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Over 2,000 Maoists surrender under Chhattisgarh rehabilitation policy, says CM Vishnu Deo Sai

Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai said more than 2,000 Maoists have surrendered under the state’s rehabilitation policy, which offers skill training, financial assistance and land support.

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Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai on Friday said that more than 2,000 Maoists have surrendered so far under the state’s rehabilitation policy, asserting that the government is committed to treating surrendered cadres fairly and supporting their reintegration into society.

Addressing the issue, the Chief Minister said the state government has repeatedly appealed to Maoists to abandon violence and gunfire and return to the mainstream of development. He said the impact of these efforts is now visible, with a large number of cadres laying down arms.

According to Vishnu Deo Sai, the rehabilitation framework focuses on long-term welfare. Surrendered Maoists are being provided skill training along with monthly financial assistance of Rs 10,000. He added that the new policy also includes provisions for allotment of land for farming and land to build houses in urban areas, aimed at securing their future and livelihood.

Fresh surrenders reported from Bijapur

Earlier, 34 Naxals surrendered in Chhattisgarh’s Bijapur district under the state government’s rehabilitation initiative titled Poona Margham: Punarvas Se Punarjeevan (Return to the Mainstream: Social Reintegration through Rehabilitation). Police officials said the surrendered cadres were carrying a cumulative reward of Rs 84 lakh.

Officials noted that the latest surrenders reflect the growing impact of sustained anti-Naxal measures combined with confidence-building initiatives focused on welfare and reintegration.

Centre’s target to eliminate Naxalism by March 2026

The Chief Minister’s remarks come amid the Central Government’s stated goal to eradicate Naxalism from the country by March 2026 under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Authorities believe that rehabilitation-driven policies, along with security operations, are playing a key role in weakening the influence of Left-wing extremism in affected regions.

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